Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
236 PM MDT Monday Sep 1 2014
Short term...tonight through Wednesday...temperatures will
continue on a warming trend through Tuesday ahead of a cold front.
Highs will be close to or slightly above normal. The cold front
will move through southeast Oregon early Tuesday evening and
southwest Idaho Tuesday night...then exit to the east by early
Wednesday morning. Gusty winds 30 miles per hour are possible with the
front...but unlike the last cold frontal passage which had the support of
convection...this front looks to be dry with less potential for
strong wind gusts. A very dry and much cooler air mass will follow
on Wednesday for 10-15 degrees lower maximum temperatures. Breezy
winds will continue in the upper Treasure and western Magic
Valleys with gusts to 30 miles per hour expected in the afternoon.
Long term...Wednesday night through Monday...models agree that
the long wave trough position will remain over western North
America. Thursday will be the coolest day of the period with
afternoon highs around 10 degrees below normal. Weak upper level
ridging starting Friday will warm temperatures to a few degrees
above normal for the weekend...but cooler air from western Canada
will lower temperatures a few degrees on Monday as the trough
deepens over our area. No precipitation is expected.
Aviation...VFR. Skies will remain mostly clear. Surface winds...
variable less than 10 kts except west 10-15 kts in the Magic
Valley until about 03z. Winds aloft...west up to 15 kts at 10k
feet mean sea level.