Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
323 am MDT sun Apr 19 2015
Short term...today through Monday...some moisture in the northwest flow
is combining with lift over highest central Idaho terrain to produce
some cloudiness east of myl-Idaho City so most areas will be sunny
today. By afternoon light upslope low layer winds are expected.
Any isolated terrain driven showers should remain east of Sun
Valley and our area before they decay after sunset. The
warming/drying upper level ridge will push inland tonight and
Monday for warmer temperatures and a return to clear/sunny skies.
Light diurnal winds expected through Monday.
Long term...Monday night through Sunday...the upper level ridge
will keep southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho warm and dry through
Tuesday night. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal.
A series of upper level trough will begin moving through the region
on Wednesday. This trough splits as it moves onshore but should
bring enough moisture for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Showers will continue on Thursday though there should be less
coverage in the absence of any upper level support. A second trough
moves through the region on Friday which will bring another round of
showers. The upper level ridge rebuilds over the region on Saturday
ahead of a deepening trough off the West Coast. This should bring
drier and warm conditions through Sunday. A cooling trend starting
Thursday will lower temperatures to near normal for Friday and
Saturday but should warm to above normal on Sunday.
Aviation...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Light surface winds...about
12 knots or less. Winds aloft...northwest-north 15-20 knots up
through 10k feet mean sea level.