Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
929 am MST Friday Jan 30 2015

Discussion...stratus covering most of southeast Oregon and much of
Owyhee County in SW Idaho. Also some patchy dense fog mixed with
stratus in the Treasure valley generally from Boise west to
Ontario. We expect much of the stratus and fog to burn off today
as dry air mixes down. Minor update coming in about an hour to
tweak temperatures and sky cover.

&&

Aviation...widespread low VFR stratus over the forecast area
with local MVFR ceilings this morning. Stratus deck will slowly
dissipate through the day. Areas of IFR conditions in valley fog
with isolated LIFR conditions. Expect fog to dissipate between 19z
and 20z. Otherwise mostly clear skies with high level clouds over
southwest Idaho. Stratus and valley fog will redevelop again
tonight...but some uncertainty as to how widespread the stratus
will be and where fog will form. Surface winds today will be
light. Winds aloft will be northeasterly around 10 knots up
through 10k feet mean sea level.

&&

Previous discussion...
short term...today through Saturday...a few radar echoes were
near the Idaho-Nevada border this morning along with abundant middle/high
clouds through the south half of Idaho. Patchy low stratus
continued per Airport observation. A trough on the north low moving
through the southwest may bring enough moisture for isolated
showers near the Nevada-Twin Falls County line as it shifts east
today. Behind that low high pressure at the surface and aloft
will strengthen the inversion across southeast Oregon and SW Idaho
Saturday. Temperatures will be above normal...with mountain highs
well above normal.

Long term...Saturday night through Friday...moderate Pacific Ridge
will move inland early Sunday but will be short-lived as an upper
level trough moves east over British Columbia...suppressing ridge
heights over Oregon/Idaho. As a result...moist westerly flow aloft
will dominate Monday through Wednesday...warranting a chance of
precipitation /valley rain and mountain snow/ through mid-week.
Heights will reamplify later in the week...in response to an upper
low deepening over the North Pacific. Main effect locally will be
warmer temperatures and dry conditions south of the Snake River
through early Friday. Wet conditions look to return by late Friday
as the upper level ridge shifts inland and southwesterly flow
transports Pacific moisture inland.

&&

Boi watches/warnings/advisories...
Idaho...none.
Or...none.

&&

$$

Weather.Gov/Boise

Discussion...snow pellets
aviation.....Ja
previous short term...vm
previous long term....Mt

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations