Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
910 am MDT Monday Jul 28 2014
Discussion...monsoon moisture will develop isolated thunderstorms
to southern-most zones today...with a little more coverage in our County Warning Area on
Tuesday. New NAM and sref split the main moisture Tuesday with one
part going into Owyhee and Twin Falls counties and the other into
south-central Oregon...with a moisture minimum in southeastern Oregon.
Temperatures will be hot today despite clouds...but a few degrees cooler
Tuesday under thicker clouds. Upper ridge has become established
along the Continental Divide with southerly or southwesterly flow aloft into our
County Warning Area the next several days. No updates for now.
Aviation...VFR with scattered to broken middle level and high clouds.
Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly along the
Nevada border...over the Owyhee Mountains...and over the central
Idaho mountains east of kmyl and Idaho City. Surface winds...
variable 10 kts or less. Winds aloft...variable around 10 kts up
through 10k feet mean sea level.
short term...today through Tuesday...flow around the west side of
an upper ridge will continue to funnel monsoon moisture into the
region. Elevated terrain across southeast Oregon /excluding Baker
County/ and SW Idaho will see isolated showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon with the highest probability for development near
the Nevada border. Expect enough breaks in the cloud cover for areas
to heat up today across western and northern zones...while a more
persistent cloud shield over S-central Idaho will keep
temperatures slightly cooler. Tonight is mild and dry under a
blanket of clouds. Showers and thunderstorms develop again Tuesday
over the higher terrain with increased coverage along the Idaho/Nevada
border. This will result in a slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm moving into the western Magic Valley during the
afternoon. Temperatures are cooler Tuesday as cloud cover
Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday...little change in the
weather pattern through the extended period as the upper level ridge
remains in place across the intermountain west. Southwest flow on
the back side of the ridge will bring monsoon moisture into the
forecast area for at least a slight chance of mainly diurnal showers
and thunderstorms. Best chance for convection will be over the
higher terrain. Model runs continue to differ on the placement and
timing of weak short waves moving through the flow...but as they
move over the forecast area will see an enhancement to the
convection. First wave will move over the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the second wave expected on Friday. Temperatures
will average near normal through the rest of the week with above
normal temperatures over the weekend.
previous short term...dg
previous long term....ja