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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
222 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Short term...tonight through Monday...short wave and cold front
have exited to the east with another wave and front on its way.
The next short wave and attendant front have entered the pacnw
with showers spreading into north-central Oregon. The showers will
continue to move east and enter southeast Oregon late this afternoon and
SW Idaho this evening. The bulk of the activity will be north of a
Rome-Mountain Home-Fairfield line. Not expecting much thunderstorm
activity with this system due to the widespread clouds...although
there will be enough instability and dynamics to support isolated
thunderstorms. The cold front is prognosticated to move rapidly through
southeast Oregon...reaching the or/Idaho border by 6 PM MDT...Boise by 9 PM
MDT...and Twin Falls/Jerome by midnight. Gusty winds to 40 miles per hour are
expected with the frontal passage. The showers will diminish late
tonight and Sunday as a drier northwest flow follows the departing
wave. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with gusty winds
continuing in the western Magic Valley. The drying trend continues
into Labor Day along with lighter winds and slightly warmer

Long term...Monday night through Thursday...northwest flow
rapidly becomes more westerly on Tuesday as a new trough begins to
dig toward the Pacific northwest. Temperatures should rebound to
near normal on Tuesday. Models agree that trough will split after
that...but European model (ecmwf) continues to be stronger and faster with the
northern portion of the trough...which pushes a dry cold front
through the area Tuesday night. GFS is slower and weaker with this
cooler push. Have trended more toward the cooler European model (ecmwf)
solution...but either way should be near or slightly below normal
temperatures and mostly dry with just a slight chance of showers
in the central Idaho mountains on Wed/Thu.

Thursday night through Saturday...the trough axis will sit over
US in a holding pattern allowing for weak cold air advection. This
will keep temperatures just below normal for the time being. Low
moisture advection ahead of the trough will keep chances of
precipitation low for the region. Afternoon heating and forced
mountain lift will allow for a slight chance of precipitation to
continue for the west central and Boise Mountains in the
afternoons and evenings.


Aviation...mostly VFR. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mostly north of kreo-ksnt line through 07z. Isolated
MVFR and mountain obscuration in these showers. Cold front near
kmyl-kbno at 01z...kboi at 03z...ktwf around 06z. Surface winds
northwest 10-20 kts...gusting to near 30 kts especially near cold
front passage overnight. Jet aloft supports northwest 15-25 kts on
Sunday. Winds aloft west at 30 kts at 10k feet mean sea level.


Boi watches/warnings/advisories...




long term....tb/ab

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