Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
245 am MDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
Short term...today through Wednesday...the Pacific northwest will remain
under weak ridging through the short term...leading to continued
mostly clear skies...relatively light winds...and above-normal
temperatures. Smoke from the Walker fire will continue to impact
Boise County and drain down into the Boise metropolitan area. Changes to
the forecast were minor.
Long term...Wednesday night through Monday...the upper level ridge
will maintain dry weather through Friday...with above normal
temperatures through Saturday...but a pattern change is on the way
for early next week. Confidence is improving as model agreement and
continuity remain above average. An upper level low is currently
centered west of Baja California California...and a separate trough is forecast
to deepen south from the Gulf of Alaska and move onshore Friday
night. Ahead of the trough the Baja California system will lift north...
arriving over Southern California and the southwest U.S. By Friday.
Some of this subtropical moisture is expected to combine with the
northern trough as it moves inland...bringing showers to southeast
Oregon and southwest Idaho starting Saturday. Cooler North Pacific
air will lower daytime highs by about 10 degrees starting Sunday...
but both highs and lows will stay 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Aviation...areas of smoke will persist in the kboi area...with MVFR
and local IFR visibilities. Conditions will improve to mainly VFR by
21z...but deteriorate again after 06z tonight. Elsewhere VFR
conditions will continue under mostly clear skies. Surface winds...
variable less than 10 kts. Winds aloft...west 15-25 kts up through
10k feet mean sea level.
Short term...snow pellets