Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
240 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Short term...tonight through Friday...expect strong storms
/possible a few severe storms as well/ this afternoon and evening
across our northern zones. Another shortwave...embedded in the
southwesterly flow ahead Pacific northwest trough...will be the
focus for thunderstorm development as it tracks along our northern
zones this evening. located over central
Oregon and has already initiated scattered thunderstorms across
northeast Oregon. Expect this shortwave to move east-northeast
across northeast Oregon between 23z-01z into north-central Idaho
between 00z-03z. There is already strong 0-6 km shear and close to
500 j/kg mu cape in place this afternoon which suggest strong
storms would be possible tonight. Given a slightly drier boundary
layer and plenty of surface heating from Baker City to
McCall...gusty winds and hail will likely accompany the stronger
cells. Much colder...drier and breezy on Thursday in the wake of a
cold frontal passage. Front reaches Baker around 01z
tonight...Boise around 05z tonight and Twin Falls around 09z.
Northwest winds will increase with passage of the front overnight
and remain breezy across SW Idaho through Thursday afternoon.
Friday remains about 4-7 degrees below normal with zonal flow over
the region.

Long term...Friday night through Wednesday...zonal westerly flow
through Saturday then Four Corners high will reestablish and ridge
over pacnw will be dominant feature for rest of the extended
forecast period. Temperatures will return to near normal by Friday and
then return to 5-10 degrees above normal for Sunday...temperatures will
remain 8-10 degrees above normal for Monday through Wednesday. As for
threat of precipitation...zonal flow is dry and models are consistent
in bringing some monsoon moisture northward into our area Monday through will stay with current forecast and keep a mention of
a chance of showers mainly afternoons and early evenings from Monday
through Wednesday.


Aviation...VFR...partly cloudy except scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a line from kbno to kboi...until 03z Oregon
and 06z Idaho west central mountains. Surface winds northwest 10
to 15 with gusts to 25 kts...winds increasing to 15 to 30 kts behind
the cold front. Front near kbno at 00z...ktwf 08z. Winds aloft
southwest 20 to 30 kts at 10k feet mean sea level.


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning until midnight MDT tonight idz401-402. flag warning until 8 PM PDT this evening orz646.




Short term...jds/lc
long term....Rd/ab

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations