Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
913 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will provide dry weather overnight and Thursday. The
high will move offshore Friday and begin a trend toward warmer
and more humid weather into this weekend and next week. The vast
majority of the time will be dry...but at least a few bouts of
scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected Friday through
Sunday.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
915 PM update...
Forecast on track. Satellite shows a few patchy middle level clouds
across area...which will diminish overnight. Clear skies and light
winds will allow for ideal radiational cooling...with lows
dropping back into the 40s/50s. Column looks fairly dry so not
anticipating much in way of fog formation overnight.
&&
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
Thursday...
high pressure overhead will result in another beautiful
day for the latter half of June. Plenty of sunshine will allow
temperatures to recover rather quickly after a cool start. High temperatures will
be mainly in the upper 70s to around 80 with comfortable humidity
levels.
Thursday night...
another quiet night in store for the region with
high pressure in control. The airmass modifies some so low temperatures
will not be quite as cool as tonight. Low temperatures will mainly be in
the 50s.
&&
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
highlights...
* high pressure brings quiet weather Friday
* high pressure S of southern New England brings warm...humid conditions this weekend
* showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday
There is good general agreement amongst the models through much of
the long term. There are some model discrepancies regarding the
strength and extent of an upper level ridge over the eastern U.S.
Into early next week. Ultimately this will affect the weather in
this area mainly in where and when showers and thunderstorms are
able to develop. The consensus is with the European model (ecmwf) and the upper
level ridge over the southeast Continental U.S. Gradually building northward into the
Ohio Valley by Saturday then sinking back south early next week.
There are also some discrepancies in how quickly the ridge breaks
down and allows an upper trough to move through the northeast. The
European model (ecmwf) keeps enough ridging over southern New England to keep the
trough to the north in southeastern Canada while the GFS breaks it
down...allowing the trough to move over New England.
Am expecting fairly quiet weather overall with more Summer like
temperatures and a few humid days thrown in there as well. There is
potential for showers and thunderstorms each day in the long term
with plenty of moisture and instability available. The one missing
ingredient is a well-defined trigger. While there is potential each
day...the best days for showers and thunderstorms are Monday and
Wednesday with a pre-frontal trough and a cold front...respectively.
Activity on other days will depend on the timing of shortwaves
moving over the upper ridge.
&&
Aviation /01z Thursday through Monday/...
forecaster confidence levels...
Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.
Overview...high confidence.
VFR through Thursday night. May see brief MVFR/IFR due to patchy ground
fog around sunrise Thursday and again early Friday at some of usual fog-
prone airports /kowd ktan keen kore/.
Kbos terminal...high confidence. Sea breeze possible Thursday 15z-20z
/12008kt/ and may include in 06z Thursday taf if it becomes more
likely.
Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.
Outlook...Friday through Monday...
Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. There is a low probability of
showers and thunderstorms and accompanying MVFR/IFR conditions each
aftn/eve.
&&
Marine...
forecaster confidence levels...
Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.
Short term /through Thursday night/...high confidence.
Left over 3 to 5 foot seas across our southern Atlantic waters will
diminish this evening. Will let Small Craft Advisory expire for these waters at 7
PM. Otherwise...high pressure overhead will keep winds/seas below
Small Craft Advisory thresholds right through Thursday night.
Outlook...Friday through Monday...
High confidence.
Quiet boating weather expected through Monday with high pressure
near or over the waters. There is a low probability of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening that may limit visibilities on the
waters. Seas increase Monday night as a weak cold front or pre-
frontal trough moves across the waters.
&&
Hydrology...
concerning river flooding...the Charles at Dover Massachusetts remains just
above flood stage. Latest guidance indicates that this river will
remain in minor flood through Friday afternoon.
In addition...Farmington River at Simsbury CT was within 0.5 feet of
its 12 feet flood stage Wednesday evening. Per coordination with nerfc it
was cresting and is not forecast to exceed 12 feet overnight.
&&
Climate...
here is a listing of record low temperatures for
Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will not quite make these
numbers...although it will be within a few degrees at
Hartford /Bradley International Airport/.
Boston... 47 in 1918
Hartford... 45 in 1918
Providence... 45 in 1918
Worcester... 37 in 1926
&&
Box watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
Massachusetts...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Rhode Island...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Frank/rlg
near term...jwd
short term...Frank
long term...rlg
aviation...jwd
marine...Frank/rlg
hydrology...jwd
climate...staff
