Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
401 am EDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure over the northeast will continue to bring fair and
dry conditions to the north country through the end of the work
week. For the weekend...warm and muggy conditions are
expected...along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a
warm front lifts through the region.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 401 am EDT Thursday...the north country will ring in the
Summer solstice in style today with high pressure centered
overhead providing sunny skies and light south to southwesterly
winds. Mean 925mb temperatures of +14-15c will support highs generally
in the 70s area-wide...to locally near 80 in the Champlain/St.
Lawrence/Connecticut River valleys. Really not much more to say
other than have a great day!
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
as of 401 am EDT Thursday...generally dry conditions continue
through much of the short term period...though a weak front
moving through central Ontario/Quebec will make a run for the
international border late tonight into Friday morning. Low/middle level relative humidity
fields show moisture thins considerably though as it approaches
the btv County Warning Area...and given the dry airmass in place plus the fact
that very little rain has fallen with this feature upstream...have
not mentioned anything more than a 10 pop along the Canadian
border. Otherwise...we will see an increase in cloud cover late
tonight through the first part of Friday associated with the
front...which will keep overnight temperatures warmer than the past few
nights. Look for lows generally in the middle 40s to lower 50s
tonight...and highs Friday in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Friday night will start out generally clear as the aforementioned
front and weak upper trough exit to the east...but we should see
increasing sky cover again going towards Saturday morning as upper
level heat ridge off to our southwest shifts east towards the
northeast. Still some uncertainty as to whether we see some sort
of convective complex develop and ride over the ridge into the
region Saturday...so will continue to mention some chance probability of precipitation for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures continue to slowly climb
Saturday as well...now pushing into the lower to middle 80s.
&&
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 330 am EDT Thursday...Summer warmth on tap for the entire
extended period as surface/upper level ridges set up offshore...south
and east of the region. Ll SW flow will keep strong warm air advection across the
region during this time. 925 temperatures will be ranging from 20c to
25c...W/ 850 temperatures ranging from 16c to 20c. This in turn would put
area into the u80s/l90s for many spots through period...but differing
model runs in the GFS/European model (ecmwf) bring several weak surface waves and along
with diurnal heating effects...with bring the chance for rain shower/thunderstorm in
all periods. West/ this chance for clds/precip...will undercut latest
guidance for temperatures...especially for highs...and keep area in the
80s. Some areas in cvly/CT River Valley may near 90f. Have
continued mention of hir probability of precipitation along the Canadian border/St law
valley as these area will be located on outer periphery where surface
features will potentially track. Best chances for thunderstorm will occur
in latter portion of extended on Tuesday night/ Wednesday as upper
trough pushes through Great Lakes region and into area. Best
instability Wednesday aftnoon with dewpoints ranging in the 60s...allowing
for cape values reaching at least 1000-2000j/kg.
&&
Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
through 06z Friday...mainly VFR conditions west/ sky clear through 00z Friday. Sct250
for slk/mss/pbg through 06z Friday. MVFR fog down to 3sm at times for
mpv/slk from 08z-12z this morning. Light/variable winds through 15z then
becm SW-southeast 5-10kts through 00z Friday...then light/variable for slk/mpv.
Outlook 06z Friday through Monday...
VFR conditions continue for Thursday night into Friday...with clouds
increasing...along with the chances for showers by late Friday
associated with a surface warm front. The chances for showers/storms will
continue over the weekend...with mainly VFR conditions anticipated...
but MVFR will be possible in the stronger storms. The greatest
potential for storms will be during the afternoon/evening hours between 17z-
23z each day. If a storm impacts a taf site and some rain
occurs...patchy fog would be possible during the late
evening/early morning hours on Saturday and Sunday. Mainly VFR
Monday west/ some MVFR/IFR afternoon -rw.
&&
Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...lahiff
near term...lahiff
short term...lahiff
long term...jn
aviation...banacos/jn
