Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
737 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
high pressure continues to provide dry conditions and mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies today. A weak disturbance will then
bring an increase in clouds and a few widely scattered showers
tonight into Sunday. A warming trend will also develop over the
weekend which will continue into next week.
Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
as of 719 am EDT Saturday...some middle to high level clouds this
morning already showing the affects of the approaching
disturbance. These clouds may slow erosion of valley fog this
morning. But overall benign weather expected throughout the day.
Big bubble no trouble! High pressure at the surface continues to
play a big factor in our weather with dry conditions and variable
cloudiness. There will be increasing middle and high clouds
throughout the day as a disturbance aloft over the Great Lakes
shifts eastward toward the north country. Light south to southwest
flow persists generally 5-10 kts. Slight warming trend continues
with maximum temperatures reaching the middle 70s to low 80s.
Short term /8 PM this evening through Monday/...
as of 345 am EDT Saturday...as upper disturbance nears the St
Lawrence Valley early this evening, mostly cloudy skies will
spread eastward. Models indicate bulk of energy and lift
associated with this disturbance will stay to our north, thus
keeping the north country mostly dry. But as surface high pressure
retreats into the Atlantic, cannot rule out a few isolated to
scattered showers mainly Sunday. But models have been inconsistent
with timing and whether or not disturbance and associated precipitation
just washes out somewhere over the northeast. Therefore have kept
only slight chance probability of precipitation late Saturday night/early Sunday morning
throughout the day on Sunday. Another middle-upper level disturbance
will attempt to trigger a few showers on Monday.
Temperature-wise, persistent southwest flow will continue the
warming trend. Saturday night, temperatures will be milder with lows in
the middle 50s to lower 60s. On Sunday...850mb temperatures reach
12-14c. Even with some cloudiness...maximum temperatures in the middle 70s to
middle 80s are expected. Sunday night and Monday will be a couple
degrees warmer that the previous night and day.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 405 am EDT Saturday...a strong ridge of high pressure at
the surface and aloft will remain over the region through the
period. Thus...expecting mainly dry weather through the period.
Summer- like weather to persist through all of next week with maximum
temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 80s. The normal high
temperature at Burlington (btv) this time of year is 77 degrees.
European model (ecmwf) and GFS models hint at some convection on Thursday...as a
weak back-door cold front moves west from Maine. Have opted to
stay with slight chance probability of precipitation (20 percent) on Thursday. Any
convection that does develop will likely be orographic over the
higher terrain...as models not showing much in the way of forcing
from any upper level features. European model (ecmwf) hints at some more convection
on Friday...but GFS model maintains a dry forecast...so have opted
to stay with a dry forecast as not much in the way of forcing
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
through 12z Sunday...mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period as a surface ridge of high pressure will be over the
region. Areas of valley fog across north central and eastern and
northeast Vermont early this morning will burn off by 14z
Saturday. Satellite loop showing high and middle clouds moving east
into the region from the Great Lakes at this time. Expecting
increasing high and middle level clouds to move into the region
through the period. Surface winds will be mainly less than 10
knots through the period. Given increasing amounts of middle and high
level cloud cover tonight...not expecting much if any radiation fog
to develop tonight...so have left out mention of fog in tafs
Outlook 12z Sunday through Wednesday...
12z sun-00z Monday...mainly VFR. Slight chance -shra.
00z Monday-00z Thursday...VFR. Vlifr/LIFR fog likely at kmpv/kslk. Chance