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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service quadrant cities Iowa Illinois
642 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

issued at 257 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

A surface trough moved into Iowa overnight...accompanied by a
shift to a northwest wind but little change in temperature. At 3
am CDT...the sky was mostly clear across the region with
temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 257 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Quiet weather will continue through the short term period. In the
near term...a surface trough will continue to push southeast
through the forecast area this morning. Expect a shift to a
northwest wind...sustained around 15 miles per hour in the afternoon.
Afternoon temperatures should be similar to Sunday...perhaps a degree or
two higher with the warmer start to the day. Stratocumulus clouds
will be most widespread across the northeast this afternoon and
evening in the vicinity of a weak back door cold front. No rain is
anticipated with either feature.

For tonight...a surface high pressure ridge will be centered
across central Iowa with light north/NE winds over the forecast area.
Lows will be in the upper 30s north to lower 40s south.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 257 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Forecast focus on mainly a dry extended with the only chance of
showers Thursday. Temperatures will begin the period below normal
but then trend above normal by this upcoming weekend.

Tuesday through Wednesday...the upper levels will feature deep
trough in the east and in The Rockies...with a ridge from Texas to Minnesota.
The dvn County Warning Area will still be influenced by a northerly flow due to the
eastern trough. This will keep temperatures below normal with highs
in the middle 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday night and Thursday...the ridge shifts to our east while
the trough out west approaches the Midwest...but in a weakening
fashion as it runs into the ridge. GFS/European model (ecmwf) insist on painting some
quantitative precipitation forecast in our western County Warning Area late Wednesday night into Thursday...but
fizzles as it pushes eastward into the drier air associated with the
ridge to our east. For now will have small chance probability of precipitation in the
western County Warning Area...with only slight chances as far east as the MS river.
I will keep the remainder of the County Warning Area east of the river dry. Forecast
soundings indicate very dry low levels so believe the models are
overdoing the quantitative precipitation forecast but we shall see.

Friday through the weekend...this looks to be a fabulous period of
Fall weather with above normal temperatures for late October. Models
indicate building heights across the region in response to a
deepening trough moving into The Rockies. This will push our
temperatures well into the 60s to lower 70s on Saturday and possibly
on Sunday also. The consensus models may not be warm enough
especially on Sunday with a more southerly flow established then.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 640 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Expect a northwest wind today in the wake of a surface trough...increasing
to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon. VFR conditions with continue
through the period with scattered to broken stratocumulus during
the afternoon.


Dvn watches/warnings/advisories...


Synopsis...rp Kinney
short term...rp Kinney
long term...haase
aviation...rp Kinney

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