Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
152 PM MDT sun may 19 2013
Synopsis...
a breezy evening then clear with light winds overnight. Dry and
warm tomorrow with a breezy afternoon and highs near 90. An upper
level disturbance and associated Pacific front will take temperatures
down a few degrees for Tuesday...then climbing to the low and middle
90s for the rest of the week. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico may
edge in from the southeast Friday into next weekend...bringing the
chance for showers and thunderstorms east of the Rio Grande.
&&
Discussion...
a broad trough short wave trough covering much of the western half
of the country will slowly shift eastward into the northern plains
over the next couple of days. Very dry west to northwest flow
aloft will continue to bring dry and breezy conditions tomorrow
with high temperatures a few degrees above normal. A short wave trough
moving through the broader flow will move in from the north Monday
night into Tuesday...taking temperatures down a few degrees to near normal
for Tuesday. Overall pattern will shift for the second half of next
week as an upper level ridge moves across from the west. This will
keep moisture well to our east Wednesday and Thursday and take our
afternoon temperatures well into the 90s for Wednesday into the weekend.
That ridge of high pressure is expected to stall out to our east
Friday as a broad trough of low pressure becomes established along
the West Coast. The resulting pattern may bring in enough moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico to establish a dry line over West Texas and
eastern New Mexico. If a dry line does develop...it would likely
oscillate between The Big Bend area and the Rio Grande Valley.
This would bring the chance for thunderstorms as far west as the
Rio Grande Valley Friday through the weekend. However...the GFS
and the Euro are no longer in agreement on this overall pattern
with respect to the location and orientation of the high pressure.
The Euro would have a drier solution with an elongated high from
the Gulf of Mexico across Mexico into the eastern Pacific...but
the GFS keeps the high over southern Texas and the Gulf of Mexico
for a wetter solution. Made no changes in 6 to 10 day forecast
because of the model disparity.
&&
Aviation...20/00z-21/00z...VFR conditions expected at all taf
sites through the valid period. West winds 10-20 kts with gusts
to 25 knots this evening...diminishing to 5-10 knots after 02z.
Becoming breezy again Monday afternoon.
&&
Fire weather...
a deep upper low over the northern rockies will move slowly east
through Monday. A shortwave trough associated with this low will
move across northern nm Monday. Increasing winds aloft and a
tightening pressure gradient will lead to low-end red flag
conditions Monday afternoon...mainly in a belt extending from the
southern Gila region into southern Otero County. Winds may stay just
shy of criteria in Sierra/El Paso/Hudspeth counties. Also due to
terrain effects...winds will be much lighter in the upper Tularosa
basin except along the east slopes of the San Andres range.
A weak cold front will move in from the north Monday night
with slightly cooler temperatures expected Tuesday...but temperatures
will very quickly rebound back to the 90s for The Lowlands on
Wednesday.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 68 91 67 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 62 91 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 59 88 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 59 86 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 44 65 40 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 59 85 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Silver City 53 80 50 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 55 86 52 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 53 84 51 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 67 89 64 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 55 86 52 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 64 92 62 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 56 80 55 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fabens 64 91 64 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 61 89 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 66 88 64 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 49 87 47 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 57 84 58 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 58 87 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 58 89 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 52 74 46 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 44 73 41 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Timberon 43 73 39 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Winston 48 75 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 56 79 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
spaceport 55 83 55 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 48 75 45 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hurley 57 80 51 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 48 84 47 88 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 39 79 37 84 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 54 82 51 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 57 86 53 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 54 85 53 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 58 87 55 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 54 82 50 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for nmz111>113.
Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for txz055-056.
&&
$$
21/25
