Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
714 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
issued at 454 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Updated the fog forecast to include the possibility of visibility
reductions down to around one half mile due to favorable fog
formation conditions late tonight. The wind will shift from
easterly to southeast and moisture pooling across Kansas will lift
north into our Nebraska zones. Numerous forecast models are
indicating the possibility of fog...the sref in particular with
the highest likelihood of more widespread fog over Nebraska zones.
Not confident enough yet for a fog advisory at this point in
time...but can not rule that out later tonight depending on how
things begin to unfold.
Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Satellite and observations have clear skies across the area
thanks to an upper ridge and surface high pressure system.
As the surface high pressure system slides to the east late this
afternoon and this evening winds will gradually turn to the south.
Dew point temperatures in Kansas are in the 50s and the moist air
will be advecting into the area. With the light winds and clear
skies expect there could be some fog forming. The NAM and GFS both
have an increase in low level moisture and the sref has high
probabilities of visibility less than a mile. The latest couple of
runs have had slightly different areas...but are all in the same
vicinity of mainly in south central Nebraska. Have kept areas of fog
in for late tonight and Sunday morning. Will have to monitor for how
low the visibility will get tonight.
The fog and low clouds will linger into the morning. The fog will
diminish by middle morning and the clouds will gradually diminish
during the day. Temperatures will be in the middle 70s to middle 80s.
Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Big story in the long term will be the return of more seasonable
temperatures. There will also be a low end chance for precipitation
Monday into Monday night.
We begin the period under a somewhat zonal flow pattern aloft. There
is a wave off to the northwest...which will begin eject over into
the northern plains come Monday. This will result in a cold front
coming through the region Monday afternoon. Behind the cold
front...it will be a rather breezy...with sustained wind speeds
around 25 to 30 miles per hour from the north to northwest. Although
dynamically a decent setup with the shortwave passage...the
atmosphere is rather dry during this time and lacks instability...so
confidence to see any measurable rainfall Monday into Monday night
is rather low. A couple models are hinting at some quantitative precipitation forecast around the
local area...but the lack of moisture in the atmosphere is really
the key...and at this current time would be surprised to see more
than a light shower to perhaps only sprinkles. Otherwise...look for
dry conditions throughout the extended.
As mentioned earlier...we will have more seasonable temperatures in
the forecast for the long term. This weekend may be the last time we
have temperatures near 80 degrees until next year...so everyone
should get out and enjoy the nice weather. We are looking at temperatures
mostly in the 50s/60s through Saturday for highs. South/southeast of
the tri-cites could see temperatures reach the lower 70s for highs
Monday before the cold front passes. Otherwise...expected
temperatures to be closer to normal...which is basically the upper
50s and lower 60s for highs...while lows generally range in the middle
to upper 30s this time of year.
Aviation...(for the 00z kgri/kear tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 709 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
The biggest concern tonight will center around the strong
possibility of low clouds and fog. Low clouds are a good bet based
on the wind turning southeast and advecting moisture northward out
of Kansas. There is some question as to if it will be just low
clouds or the cloud base will be so low that we have fog. Am
leaning towards the fog and have went more pessimistic with the tafs
lowering the expected ceiling and visibility. Low clouds could
hang around through much of the morning. IFR ceilings seem likely
late tonight into tomorrow morning and can not rule out LIFR