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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1235 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 324 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Moisture will increase across the area today ahead of an upper
level low crossing the intermountain west. Already seeing some
high cloud cover spread across the central and High Plains ahead
of this disturbance early this morning...and only expect clouds to
thicken as we go through the day.

With this low approaching...expect the pressure gradient to
tighten across the region by late morning...and for southerly
breezes to increase throughout the afternoon. While there are some
indications we could see precipitation develop across western Nebraska by
middle afternoon...think that any precipitation locally will be Post
00z...and shaded chances for precipitation towards the evening and
overnight hours. That said...models are very consistent bringing
a significant swath of precipitation across the local area during the
evening and overnight hours...and would not be surprised to see
widespread rainfall amounts in excess of half an inch when all is
said and done. Latest day one quantitative precipitation forecast from HPC indicates a widespread
area of near one inch across The Heart of the County Warning Area...with two day
totals in excess of one inch possible. Did not stray too far from
this with quantitative precipitation forecast fields in forecast due to consistency of
models...and with very marginal instability and low shear...kept
mention of thunderstorms to isolated coverage with no mention of
strong on severe storms in morning severe weather potential statement. Basically...expect mostly
steady...stratiform...precip beginning this evening and continuing
into the daytime hours Tuesday.

Temperature wise...with a slightly cooler airmass in place and
increasing cloud cover...think afternoon temperatures will be a
few degrees below yesterdays seasonal values...albeit with good
mixing and southerly wind flow...afternoon temperatures should still be
fairly close to normal...with lows overnight expected to run a
couple of degrees above normal due to cloud cover and elevated dew
points.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 324 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Main forecast concerns will be chances of precipitation Tuesday
through Wednesday night...Thursday night and moving into the area
Sunday.

An upper level low will move through the northern and Central
Plains. Expect precipitation to continue across the area through the
day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. This will be the best chance for
there to be some showers. The MUCAPE is up to 1500 j/kg during the
day and into the evening. Expect mostly showers with some isolated
thunderstorms. By Wednesday and Wednesday night the upper low moves
off to the northeast and the MUCAPE decreases. There is still enough
cape to keep some isolated thunder...but expect mostly showers. With
clouds and precipitation around...temperatures will be on the cooler
side.

A weak upper level ridge builds into the plains Thursday through
Friday. The upper level low that moved through Tuesday weakens and
slides back into the area. With the wave moving through will put in
a small chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms for
Thursday night. The next system moves onto the West Coast Saturday
and will just start to affect the area late Sunday in the far west.

Temperatures will be on a slow warming trend through the entire
period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1219 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

VFR conditions are forecast for the first part of the period with
MVFR looking likely with the onset of rain later tonight. Rain is
expected overnight and into the morning for the taf sites.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but did not have high
enough confidence if thunderstorms and rain would impact taf sites. The winds are
expected to be southerly with an occasional southeasterly shift.

&&

Gid watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Rossi
long term...jcb
aviation...Beda

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