Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1209 PM CDT sun may 24 2015
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 350 am CDT sun may 24 2015
A warm front will lift north across the region today...with
southerly winds and a warmer airmass expected in its wake. As a
result...despite the continued cloud cover...expect temperatures
to climb several degrees above saturdays unseasonably cool
readings...with afternoon high temperatures topping out near 70
across the majority of the forecast area.
Other than temperatures...precipitation chances have presented
quite a challenge this morning...as while plenty of moisture as
well as some modest instability/shear will be in place...the lack
of a significant forcing mechanism could help keep convective
activity to a minimum. Despite this...the northwestern portions of
the forecast area remains in a marginal risk for severe weather
from Storm Prediction Center...so will need to monitor this area as if some clearing
and rapid warming occurs...we could see a few marginally strong to
near severe storms rapidly build during the late afternoon
hours...especially across this area where forcing from a passing
shortwave could provide a spark for convection later today.
That said...despite the fairly modest precipitation chances in the
forecast for much of the local area today...do not anticipate
much in the way of overall rainfall accumulation...as the local
area seems to be poised between better chances with the shortwave
to our west this afternoon/evening...and the focus of the low level jet and
an additional shortwave to our east tonight. Even so...light
accumulations will be possible through the short term periods...so
while chances for precipitation were tweaked downward for the
most part...still expect a potentially unsettled 24 hours with light
rainfall accumulations possible along with lots of cloud cover.
Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 350 am CDT sun may 24 2015
Unsettled weather will continue to affect the area through the week.
Models continue to have the main features that are similar...but the
details have some minor differences. This proves to be a challenge.
Even with chances for showers and thunderstorms nearly every
period...it will not be raining all of the time.
The first upper level low moves through the area Monday. Expect
precipitation across the area much of the day. By Monday night the
wave moves to the east and expect precipitation to be gradually
ending. There could be a little that lingers into Tuesday in the
south and east. A surface high pressure settles into the area
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night and expect dry conditions for
The next upper wave starts to move in Wednesday afternoon. The
morning could be dry...but with the wave moving into the area in the
afternoon thunderstorms from the High Plains are expected to move
into the area. The wave should move through the area Wednesday
night. From Wednesday night through Saturday an upper level wave
moves gradually through the plains. Will keep fairly decent chances
for precipitation as the wave moves through the area. The main
trough is through the area on Saturday.
Aviation...(for the 18z kgri/kear tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1201 PM CDT sun may 24 2015
Winds will be fairly variable at the onset of the taf period with
a warm frontal boundary stalled out across in the vicinity of the
terminals. As the front lifts winds will transition southerly. Cloud
ceilings will lift today but have kept ceilings at MVFR through the afternoon.
Ceilings will lower again tonight and cannot rule out IFR or LIFR
visibilities in br/fg. Convection is expected to develop along the High
Plains this evening and migrate eastward tonight which may impact
the terminals toward daybreak or Monday morning.