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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1147 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 358 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

A return to above normal temperatures is expected today as
models are indicating a warm front tracking east across the local
area under mostly clear skies. This should result in temperatures
rising 10-15 degrees above fridays near normal readings. Along
with this increase in temperatures...expect winds to become breezy
at the pressure gradient tightens in response to and
area of surface high pressure shifting eastward as a surface
trough develops on the Lee side of The Rockies. Although it is not
expected to be exceptionally wind will likely feel a
bit breezier than we have seen in a few days.

With winds remaining steady overnight...expect overnight
low temperatures to remain fairly mild for middle October...falling
into the 50s in most spots...or about 10 degrees above
normal... a quiet and dry 24 hours with
very pleasant temperatures for early fall.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 448 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Starting with a broad overview of this 6-day period...overall
there has been little in the way of notable changes versus the
previous few forecast packages. As a result...the main highlights
are as follows:

1) this entire 6-day stretch continues to carry a dry forecast
for the entire County Warning even passing sprinkles are looking
difficult to come by at this time. This is good news for those
busy with harvest activities...but is obviously not good soil
moisture-wise for those areas already lacking in the rainfall
department over the past several weeks.

1) right off The Bat...Sunday continues looking like an
unseasonably hot day with highs soaring into at least the low-90s
in most areas. Daily records for Oct. 11th are certainly in
jeopardy...please refer to the separate climate section below for
more details on the Grand Island/Hastings temperature records.

2) unfortunately...due to the invasion of unseasonably hot air
for Sunday and also notably drier-albeit cooler air for
Monday...both of these days continue to feature growing concerns
for near- critical to potentially critical fire danger. A Fire
Weather Watch has already been issued for mainly the northwestern
quadrant of the County Warning Area for Sunday afternoon...and future headlines
for Monday are also possible. Please refer to the in-
depth...separate fire weather section for considerably more detail
regarding fire danger concerns.

3) beyond Monday...the Tuesday-Friday time frame currently appears
to feature a stretch of modestly above-normal temperatures with
daily highs mainly somewhere in the 70s...except for Friday which
preliminarily has highs only in the middle-upper 60s in most Nebraska
zones. At least for now...none of these 4 days carry "obvious"
fire weather concerns at this time...mainly due to the expectation
of fairly weak wind speeds.

4) as for overnight low temps: the official forecast continues to
show no signs of the first widespread fall frost and/or freeze
through at least Friday morning...with most areas expected to see
lows somewhere in the 40s to around 50 on most nights. That being
said...there are at least "subtle hints" in some guidance that
mainly a few far northern/west-central counties could try trending
down toward the middle-30s on both Monday and Thursday
this bears watching for possible marginal frost conditions.
Although it is just beyond the official forecast time frame...the
latest European model (ecmwf) and associated ece guidance is actually suggesting
that Friday night may hold the first potentially (repeat
potentially) round of more widespread frost concern this fall.

With the main "highlights" of this 6-day period outlined
above...will now finish with a look at day-to-day details in
mainly 12-36 hour blocks:

Sunday daytime-night: potentially record-breaking heat is by far
the main story here...with fire weather concerns also in play
(again please refer to the separate climate and fire weather
sections below for more details). The hot surge is a result of
west-southwest breezes and fairly deep mixing occurring ahead of a
fairly-potent cold front that will blast through the County Warning Area Sunday response to a very potent-but-moisture-starved upper
level wave blasting across the northern plains toward the Great
Lakes. During the day...winds will average 10-20 miles per hour from the
west or southwest. However...Sunday evening/night...a surge of
rather strong northerly winds will track across the County Warning Area from
north-to south behind the front. Although sustained speeds should
largely average 15-25 miles per hour with gusts 25-35 miles per hour...there will likely
be a brief period of higher sustained speeds around 30 miles per hour and
gusts of 40+ miles per hour as the main pressure rise maximum pushes through.

Monday daytime-night: although some 20-ish degrees cooler than
Sunday...continued deep mixing behind the front will promote a
rather breezy day out of the northwest...with sustained speeds
generally 15-25 miles per hour with higher gusts. Yet again fire danger is a
a factor...especially within the southern 1/2 of the County Warning Area. Much
lighter wind for Monday night as ridging sets up.

Tuesday-Tuesday night: a considerably weaker front will likely
pass through at some point in response to the next clipper-type
system moving southeast out of central Canada toward the Great
Lakes...but should not feature nearly the wind-punch as the Sunday
night-Monday one. High temperatures rebound into the 75-80 range most

Wednesday daytime-Thursday night: broad weak ridging/dry northwest
flow aloft continues over the Central Plains with little to no
chance of rain. Could be another decent cold frontal passage
Thursday night if latest European model (ecmwf) is onto something.

Friday daytime: still dry...but confidence in temperatures wanes a bit as
European model (ecmwf) is 10+ degrees cooler than the latest GFS. Not
surprisingly...the official forecast is a middle-ground with highs
middle 60s north to low-middle 70s in Kansas zones.


Aviation...(for the 18z kgri/kear tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1144 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the entire taf period.


Fire weather...
issued at 448 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

.Fire danger a concern both Sunday and Monday afternoons..

Opening first with a quick review of our local fire weather
thresholds: "critical" fire weather in our County Warning Area is defined as the
3+ hour overlap of relative humidity (rh) of 20 percent-or- lower
and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ miles per hour/25+ miles per hour. "Near- critical" is
defined as the overlap of 25 percent-or-lower relative humidity and sustained
winds gusts of 15+ miles per hour/20+ miles per hour (in the presence of sufficiently-
dry vegetation).

Fire weather/danger concerns are increasing for both
Sunday and Monday we appear to be headed toward
our first round of legitimate near-critical to possibly critical
combinations of low relative humidity (rh) and wind speeds since
mid-April. Although neither day is a "slam dunk" fire weather
warning situation at this time...with Sunday afternoon only 36
hours away opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch for primarily the
northwestern quadrant of the County Warning Area...and will defer to the next few
shifts to determine if at least portions of this watch may be
warning-worthy. As for Monday afternoon...the main concerns appear
to be within the southern half of the County Warning Area...but with Monday a bit
farther out in time/less imminent will not issue any watches at
this time but will mention in the latest hazardous weather
outlook/fire weather forecast products.

Specifically regarding Sunday afternoon:
as mentioned above...have collaborated with neighboring weather forecast offices to
issue a Fire Weather Watch for 10 Nebraska counties along/north of
Interstate 80 and west of Highway 14...which stand the best chance
of realizing an overlap of both critical relative humidity and wind for a few
hours. Obviously the main driving force behind fire danger on this
day is the potentially daily record-setting heat and also modestly
gusty west-southwest winds...although gusts in most areas should
only top out around 25 miles per hour. Interestingly...a decent increase in
northerly wind speeds will likely occur after nightfall...but by
this time relative humidity values should be well-above 20 percent...and thus am
only running the current watch through 00z/7pm.

Specifically regarding Monday afternoon:
although it will be roughly 20 degrees cooler versus the notable
heat of Sunday...the airmass will also be noticeably drier and
wind speeds will also be at least 5-10 miles per hour stronger in most areas
compared to Sunday behind a cold front. As a result...currently
expect most of the County Warning Area to breach near-critical relative humidity/wind thresholds
on Monday...with counties along and especially south of the state
line potentially realizing critical parameters that might trigger
headline issuance in later forecasts.

Last but not least...also want to state that based on recent
rainfall trends...there is likely some question as to whether
vegetative fuels are truly favorable for extreme fire growth
within all portions of the County Warning Area...especially with regard to
grasses. However...with crops obviously plenty dry and harvest
activities in full swing...if anything we are erring on the side
of caution with this sudden uptick in "fire danger talk".


issued at 448 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

.Record highs for Oct. 11th still look quite possible Sunday..

As of this time (obviously still subject to some
adjusting)...forecasted high temperatures Sunday at both Grand
Island and Hastings are 93 degrees. Should these unseasonably hot
readings verify...this would set a new record for Oct. 11th at
Hastings and would tie the existing record at Grand Island. Given
that the average/normal high for this date is 67 degrees...the
forecasted values are an astounding 26 degrees above normal. The
records for Oct. 11th at both official Airport sites are as follows:

Grand Island...93 f in 1928
Hastings.......89 f in 1975 and 1940

It has also been several years since either official Airport station
has reached 90+ degrees at any point during the month of october:

Grand island: 90 f on Oct. 4, 2011
hastings: 90 f on Oct. 3, 2006

While not currently forecasted to reach is Worth noting
that highs on Sunday could get within a few degrees of all-time
record highs for the entire month of October...which are as follows:

Grand island: 96 f on Oct. 5, 1947
hastings: 97 f on Oct. 5, 1947


Gid watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for nez039>041-046>048-060>063.



Short term...Rossi
long term...pfannkuch
fire weather...pfannkuch

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