Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE
658 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 250 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

An upper ridge of high pressure across the interior Continental U.S. Has
brought dry and unseasonably mild condition to our region. Under
full insolation afternoon temperatures have risen into the 70s.

At the surface...a weak surface high will slide east of the MO river
tonight and return flow of southerly winds set up by daybreak
Tuesday. In the increasing southerly flow...moisture will be drawn
northward during the day Tuesday with dps rising near or in the
50s by afternoon.

Earlier this morning an area of stratus developed just south of our
County Warning Area along the surface ridge axis and have some concerns for the
redevelopment of stratus with the increase in moisture tonight.
At this time...models suggest the lower cloud cover should remain just to
the west and south of our County Warning Area. Even on the edge of the stratus
there was some fog development and will go ahead and include some
patchy fog potential across our southern zones just in case.

During the day on Tuesday the pattern aloft will transition
southwesterly as an upper trough moves into The Rockies forcing the
upper ridge to migrate to the east. The airmass remains quite warm
for late October and we are looking at yet another day with
afternoon highs in the 70s.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 250 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Main forecast concerns will be with chances for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night and temperatures through
the period.

Low level moisture will move across the area Tuesday night and
clouds will move into the area during the night. An upper level wave
will start to affect the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
This will bring the chances for rain to the area. Expect showers to
start in the west during the morning hours then move across the area
during the afternoon and evening for the most part. The best chances
will be afternoon and evening. During the afternoon and evening
there is also about 300 j/kg of MUCAPE and there could be a few
isolated thunderstorms. By late night Wednesday night the showers
should be moving out of the forecast area. Models are fairly
consistent in moving the precipitation out of the area by Thursday
morning and have kept Thursday dry.


Aviation...(for the 00z kgri/kear tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 655 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals for the next 24
hours. As the surface high shifts east on Tuesday...expect
southerly winds to develop by late morning...sustained near 12
kts. While a few high clouds cannot be completely ruled
out...generally clear skies are expected through the period.


Gid watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Fay

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations