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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
1029 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

issued at 905 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Radar indicates all showers have come to an end...although still
could not rule out a couple flurries hanging on the highest
ridgetops. Otherwise skies will be gradually clearing overnight as
upper level ridge and drier airmass works into the region.
Forecast on track with minimal changes.


Short term...(tonight through Thursday night)
issued at 1024 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Convective clouds will dissipate this evening leaving nearly clear
skies and light winds. Some high clouds will spread over northern
areas but at first they will be pretty thin. Dropped low temperatures a
few degrees...especially in the southern part of the area. On
Thursday high clouds should thicken over the north...while low
levels will be dry enough to keep lower level convective clouds to
a minimum. Much drier air will be moving in Thursday night for
clearing from the west and another cool night.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 1024 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014*

Warm dry air will be over the area on Friday and Saturday. Pretty
good agreement on a trough for late Sunday or early Monday...but
discrepancies remain as far as the intensity. European model (ecmwf) still stronger
with a strong enough trough for a showery period...while the
weaker solutions might just be a quick band of showers...and even
less in the south. Stronger solutions could bring the showers and
cold air together enough to lower snow levels to the higher
valleys and northwestern Colorado...though temperatures would be
marginal so impact would be lessened. Pretty good chance of some
light snow in the higher mountains in this period...but again
maybe less in southern Colorado. For now the consensus temperature
forecast is fine with temperatures dropping 10-15 degrees on
Monday after a warm weekend. Then dry again behind the trough but
not as warm.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1024 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions will persist the next 24 hours with mostly clear
skies and dry conditions. Surface winds will follow normal diurnal


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...gimmestad
long term...gimmestad

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