Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
454 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Updated aviation portion for 12z taf issuance

Short Wednesday
issued at 332 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Nearly stacked low pressure system centered near fsd this morning
will continue to lift bands of precipitation into the area for the morning
hours. Forecast soundings for the onset suggest little change with
precipitation type ranging from rain from east central Wisconsin to mainly
snow over north central Wisconsin. Sleet was also noted at times
as well with the stronger radar returns. One band of mixed precipitation
departed north of the WI/Michigan border at 3 am. Area radars showing
the next and likely last band of steady precipitation from just north of
msp to isw to the east central Wisconsin working north this
morning. The back edge of this precipitation was around arx to Chicago.
Lower ceilings with drizzle were spreading northward in this last
band of precipitation as well. Dry slot region of the upper low prognosticated to
reach southwest Wisconsin toward daybreak and continue to work
northward to diminish precipitation from south to north. Anticipate precipitation
types overall to remain the same for the start this morning until
colder air aloft begins to move in from the west with the upper

With the cold upper low system drifting over tonight...steeper
lapse rates below 700 mb under the cold air aloft with h500 temperatures
near -30 should generate snow will keep a high pop
with scattered/isolated mention of snow showers tonight...then diminish from
west to east as the cold upper low departs.

Long term...Wednesday night through Monday
issued at 332 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Some light snow or flurries may linger into the early part of this
forecast period...but otherwise the rest of this week into early
next week should be dry and warmer than normal.

Have a slight chance for snow showers in far north central
Wisconsin Wednesday evening in cyclonic flow around the departing
system. Models have a couple of short wave troughs passing through
the region in the northern branch of the split upper flow...but
keep any quantitative precipitation forecast north of the area. These systems are forecast to
pass through Wisconsin Thursday night and Saturday night. Moisture
is quite limited so precipitation would be light if any were to

It appears that the cold air will remain well to the north of the
region through early next week...and daytime highs will be 5 to
10 degrees above normal.

Aviation...for 12z taf issuance
issued at 454 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Another round of mixed precipitation will work over
the area this morning...with precipitation types mainly ranging from rain
and drizzle over east central Wisconsin to mainly snow over north
central Wisconsin. In between...a mix of rain sleet and snow. Ceilings
were lowering to IFR/LIFR levels as this area of precipitation
spreads north over the area. IFR/LIFR conditions will linger into
the afternoon even though the precipitation diminishes. Some areas
may see start to ceilings improve to MVFR levels later today into
tonight as drier air works into the area. A cold upper low system
passing over may generate scattered MVFR visibilities due to snow showers.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term.....Tdh

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations