Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
110 PM EDT Thursday Sep 18 2014
high pressure will extend across the region through the end of
the week. A cold front will move through on Sunday. High pressure
will then gain control for the remainder of next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across
the region through this afternoon. Morning iln sounding is
supporting a high right around 70 degrees. Current forecast looks
to be in good shape with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes will pass into
New England during the period. Ridging from this will extend into
the Ohio Valley through the entire short term. This will keep a
dry air mass in place with a gradual warming trend.
Models have indicated a quicker pace to the cold front on Sunday
and as a result...have bumped up probability of precipitation in the northwest half of County Warning Area
to account for a chance of thunderstorms developing late
overnight...affecting County Warning Area before daybreak.
Temperatures were only slightly adjusted upward with a bit more of an
uptick on overnight lows.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Saturday will be the warmest day of the long term period. Southerly
flow in advance of an approaching low pressure system will allow for
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Dry
conditions are expected to be present during the day on Saturday and
into Saturday night.
A cold front approaches and moves through on Sunday. This feature
will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area on Sunday. Some
precipitation will linger across southeast portions of the forecast area Sunday
evening before tapering off across the area. An upper trough moves
through Sunday night into Monday keeping some clouds in the forecast
across the area and showers across northern portions of the forecast area on
Monday. Shower activity and most of the cloud cover dissipate
With decreasing clouds and light cool northerly winds expect
temperatures to drop down into the 40s across the entire forecast area Monday
night. High pressure will allow for dry conditions for the
remainder of the long term time frame. With continued mostly clear
skies and continued cool airmass in place expect Wednesday morning
to be the coolest morning. Went with low temperatures in the upper
30s to middle 40s across the area. At this time have confined 30s
to extreme eastern portions of the forecast area however would not rule out
more 30s across northern portions of the forecast area.
Aviation /17z Thursday through Monday/...
high pressure will remain in control through the taf period. Scattered
diurnal cumulus across the area this afternoon should dissipate toward
sunset. With clear skies and light winds...some patchy MVFR br
will be possible again tonight and with an increasingly more
favorable easterly surface gradient...expect LIFR visibility
restrictions at kluk later tonight. Any fog should quickly burn
off after sunrise with some spotty cumulus development possible through
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Sunday.