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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
931 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Synopsis...
a weak warm front will lift north across the area through this
evening while an upper level disturbance pushes east across the
region through Sunday. This will result in a chance of showers
and thunderstorms and seasonable temperatures over the weekend.

&&

Near term /through Sunday/...
convection has waned in coverage and intensity this evening...as
was reasonably expected given the weak forcing and diurnal nature
of the activity. To the west...an area of weak convergence and
greater deep-layer moisture content is continuing to slowly move
into the middle Ohio Valley. This will likely keep some showers
around for several more hours...especially for the northwestern
half of the forecast area. However...generally dry conditions are
expected by morning.

With extensive cloud cover and surface dewpoints not appearing
likely to drop much (if at all) overnight...min temperatures were raised
by around a degree for the entire County Warning Area.

Previous discussion >
with the fairly weak warm front lifting through the area...more
moist and somewhat unstable airmass...especially across the
northern forecast area. This is the most favorable area for a little
more organized convection closer to the boundary...so higher
chances of precipitation there...while mainly airmass showers and
isolated thunderstorms south of the boundary...which should
diminish with the loss of heating. Left a chance of showers and
isolated storms overnight in the north closer to the lingering
boundary.

Kept overnight lows in the middle 60s.

&&

Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...
with the 500 mb trough axis to push through the region on
Sunday...along with the weakening shortwave...should be renewed
convection...with the higher chances in the northern forecast area but
scattered showers/thunderstorms throughout the area again
diminishing with diurnal pattern. Ridging to begin building in for
Monday...so just isolated convection mainly in the southern forecast
area on the northern periphery of the ridge in the southeast.

Highs on Sunday in the low to middle 80s with additional cloud
cover...and more persistent middle 80s for Monday with the ridge
building back into the area. Lows continuing in the middle 60s.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
numerical model solutions generally similar with middle level ridge
axis sliding just to our east to start the long term forecast
period. This will allow for a slight chance of a pop up afternoon
thunderstorm across iln/S western and northern counties Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the middle and upper
80s.

Short wave to drop southeast into the Ohio Valley at middle week with ridge axis
re-establishing to our west. Given this scenario have included
chance probability of precipitation for showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

With the middle level ridge positioned to our west through the end of the
week...a northwest flow will prevail across the Ohio Valley. Enhanced forcing
will be lacking but can not rule out diurnally driven convection. Do
to the lack of significant forcing have limited probability of precipitation on Thursday and
Friday to slight chance during the afternoon. Warm temperatures to
continue with highs in the middle/upper 80s.

The middle/upper level ridge to build east next weekend. This will act to
keep temperatures warm and limit shower and thunderstorms activity.
Have opted to keep the forecast dry next weekend with highs generally in
the upper 80s.

&&

Aviation /02z Sunday through Thursday/...
showers and weak thunderstorms across the region will continue to
dissipate...with some light rain perhaps persisting for another
few hours near Dayton and Columbus. However...generally dry
conditions are expected overnight and through the morning hours on
Sunday. With rain having affected most of the taf sites...and
moist conditions persisting through the overnight hours...some
light fog will be possible.

Tomorrow may look similar to today...with additional disorganized
storms developing during the middle to late afternoon hours.

Outlook...no significant weather expected.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jgl/sites
near term...jdr/hatzos/sites
short term...jdr
long term...Arkansas
aviation...hatzos

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