Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
440 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015
an upper level low pressure system will move south of the area on
Sunday and work across eastern portions of the forecast area on Monday. A
frontal boundary will approach the region on Tuesday and stall out
across the area for the middle of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
there is quite a contrast in dew points across the area this
afternoon ranging from the 40s to the 60s. This is evident also I
the cumulus field. Where there is more moisture across the south cumulus
have been prevalent whereas most of central Ohio has little in the
way of cloud cover. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out across
extreme southern portions of the forecast area early this evening.
Winds will shift overnight and expect higher dewpoints to work
into western portions of the forecast area. Where skies will be clear to
mostly clear across northwest portions of the forecast area patchy fog will be
possible. Some clouds will linger through the night across the
south closer to the low and therefore do not expect as much in the
way of fog across the south.
Where drier air stays in place across NE portions of the forecast area
temperatures will be quick to drop off overnight and have
temperatures dropping into the middle 50s across portions of
central Ohio. Elsewhere across the forecast area have low temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
upper level low will meander just south of the area on Sunday
before moving into eastern portions of the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday. This feature will then move off to the east Monday night.
Expect the best precipitation chances to be closer to the low and
therefore southern and eastern portions of the forecast area have better
precipitation chances Sunday into Monday. Instability in limited
on Sunday and into Sunday night and therefore kept thunder mention
out of the forecast. Introduce chance thunder for Monday into
Monday night. Precipitation will briefly taper off for the end of
the short term period as the forecast area will be in between two systems.
Temperatures on Sunday will be warmer across western portions of
the forecast area where there will be less cloud cover associated with the
upper level low pressure system. This will also be the case as
well for Monday. High temperatures are expected to be close to
normal for this time of year.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
a cold front will slide into the area Tuesday and then become a
quasi-stationary east-west boundary through the middle of the week.
This will lead to unsettled conditions as waves of low pressure move
along the stalled front. Appears that the boundary will dissipate by
Friday with southerly flow on the back side of high pressure
centered over the Tennessee Valley occurring through Saturday.
Cannot rule out a few storms in weak forcing at the end of the week.
Highs will generally be below normal through the period while lows
will be at or above normal.
Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/...
high pressure overhead will allow for mostly VFR conditions across
the taf sites. Sunday morning there might be some patchy ground
fog but any that does develop will quickly burn off as the
sunrises. Other than that VFR.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible on Tuesday.