Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
645 am EDT sun Apr 20 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will continue to extend across the region today and
move off to the east on Monday. A cold front will move through the
area late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Another high will
build in for middle week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
ridge of high pressure will continue to extend across the area
today. Mostly thin cirrus will be present but that will do little
to prevent temperatures from warming well above normal. Have
forecast highs at or slightly above warmer MOS numbers.

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Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
high pressure will move further east resulting in winds becoming
southerly. This should lead to to warmer lows tonight and slightly
warmer highs on Monday. May start to see some cumulus by Monday
afternoon along with thicker high clouds.

00z models are slightly slower with the progression of a cold
front. The 00z NAM is the slowest and appears to be an outlier.
Nonetheless have delayed precipitation associated with the front
just a bit which means that showers may now extend a little more
into Tuesday morning. Instability still seem quite minimal and
have maintained just a slight chance of thunder. Temperatures will
be quite mild Monday night. With cooler air mass just starting to
work in on Tuesday...still expect highs to be near normal over
most of the forecast area.

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Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
high pressure will move across the Great Lakes at the beginning of
the period. This will bring a brief period of below normal
temperatures. As the high moves off on Thursday and winds turn
around to southerly...temperatures will rebound back into the
upper 60s to middle 70s.

Low pressure will track from the upper Midwest to the St Lawrence
Valley during the latter part of the week. A trough extending from
the low will push through the region Thursday night bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of this...
temperatures will be as warm if not slightly warmer on Friday. A
cold front trailing from the low will pass through Friday night
into Saturday. Appears that moisture will be quite limited by the
time the front moves through.

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Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
high pressure will keep dry conditions across the taf sites
through the taf period. High clouds will continue to move into the
area today and tonight. A few cumulus will develop across the area
today. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots through the taf
period. Although a brief MVFR visibility will be possible this morning
at kluk...due to the low probability have left out of the taf at
this time.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...
near term...
short term...
long term...
aviation...Novak