Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
130 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
cold air will work into the region tonight on strong north winds
in the wake of a cold front. Rain will mix with snow overnight and
change over to all snow in some locations. High pressure will
slowly build into the region Saturday bringing an end to the
precipitation. Temperatures will be cool all weekend...with sub-
freezing temperatures expected Sunday morning.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
rain showers have transitioned over to light snow showers across
portions of eastern Indiana...western Ohio...and northern
Kentucky. Expect this transition to light snow to progress
eastward through the night. Sped up the timing of this transition
and lowered temperatures slightly in some locations. With the
lower temperatures and quicker changeover made a slight increase
in snowfall accumulations. Increased wind gusts overnight as well
with wind gusts around 25 to 35 miles per hour possible through the overnight
hours. Kept freeze headlines in place as is. Added light snow
mention to the severe weather potential statement.
Short term /6 am this morning through Sunday night/...
as the 500 mb low shifts quickly off to East Coast Saturday
morning...some precipitation will linger in the Scioto valley. Cyclonic
flow will keep skies overcast for most of the day. Cold northerly winds
will make it a very cold day as highs will struggle to make into
the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Building surface high and upper ridge Saturday night will slowly erode
the clouds from west to east. With the cold air across the
region...temperatures should fall below freezing everywhere. The
coldest temperatures will be in southeast Indiana where lows will be
in the middle 20s. In the extreme eastern counties...temperatures should
be around 30. Continued freeze watch for Saturday night for the
entire forecast area.
Surface high pressure to build across the region Sunday. Despite
sunshine...high temperatures will still only make the lower to middle 40s.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
Monday will start out with surface high pressure permitting the
switch to southerly flow and the passage of an upper ridge that will
reinforce this flow. Temperatures will be significantly warmer than
previous days ahead of a cold front that will cross on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. An elongated axis of rain will occur along the front
as the low pressure spawning it strengthens and occludes over Hudson
Tuesday will be the warmest day ahead of the front as temperatures
rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s. If cloud cover holds
back...strong advection ahead of the front could support a 5 degree
jump in highs on this day. Wednesday and Thursday will be near seasonal
normals and then see a drop as high pressure in the central U.S.
Ushers in cooler air. GFS and Euro differ on the evolution of the
high with the GFS further west and stronger pushing in cooler
air...and the Euro actually over the region permitting a warmup with
more westerly winds.
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
moisture associated with an upper low continues to provide less
than ideal flight conditions in rain and snow showers. All
locations have MVFR ceilings with iln experiencing MVFR
visibilities in snow showers. MVFR will persist until 23z when
high pressure and a dry airmass will bring mostly clear skies.
Winds will be strong...gusting close to 30 knots out of the
north...before subsiding under 10 knots late in the forecast
Outlook...no significant weather expected.
Ohio...freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
Freeze warning until 10 am EDT this morning for ohz026-034-035-
Kentucky...freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
Freeze warning until 10 am EDT this morning for kyz089>100.
In...freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
Freeze warning until 10 am EDT this morning for inz050-058-059-