Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
448 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014
a weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon and
evening. High pressure will build back in the region on Sunday and
continue to influence the region into Monday. A stronger cold
front will push into the area on Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
digging upper level low over Ontario this morning will pivot southeast
into the eastern Great Lakes and southeast Canada by this evening. As
this occurs...a weak and fairly moisture starved cold front will
move east through our region. Models suggest that enough low level
moisture in the 3k-5k range may generate a few sprinkles over
western parts this morning due to weak warm air advection in this layer. By
afternoon...with diurnal mixing...the threat of sprinkles will
diminish. Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy this
morning. During the afternoon...the low level moisture axis will
push east with clearing expected behind frontal passage. Highs
today will range from the middle 60s east to near 70 west.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
the cold front will be exiting our area by this evening with skies
continuing to clear from west to east. Surface high pressure extending
from south central Canada southward across the MS River Valley
will build east to our region overnight. Lows will range from the
lower 40s north to the middle 40s south.
On Sunday...surface high pressure will build east across the
region. Skies will be sunny. Temperatures will be slightly cooler
across northern locations compare to yesterdays due to low level cold air advection with
locations across the far southwest peaking near yesterdays highs.
Temperatures will range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s
Models agree that the surface high will begin to pull east Sunday
night as a middle level ridge axis pushes east over the Ohio Valley.
This middle level ridge axis will be associated with a developing warm
front to our west. Looks like we should see some clouds...mainly
of the middle and high variety...spilling into the region from the
northwest overnight. Temperatures will likely be non diurnal with
overnight lows occurring during the early morning hours...followed
by slowly rising temperatures as return southerly flow increases.
Monday will be the warmest day of the week. Middle level ridge shifts
east and warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley into the Great
Lakes. Under filtered sunshine and locally breezy conditions...
temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 70s. Although these
values will be some 15 degrees above normal for late October...records
look safe as they are in the lower 80s for Monday.
For the period Monday night into Tuesday night...there continues
to be some timing issues with the next weather system to affect
our region. The European model (ecmwf) continues to display erratic continuity with
its past runs while the GFS is more consistent. All in all...the
European model (ecmwf) is the slowest with an expected cold front to push through
the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. The GFS the fastest and the
CMC is somewhat in the middle. In either case...precipitation should
increase faster into the region on Tuesday than previously
forecast and have adjusted as such. It appears that the threat for
showers and embedded thunderstorms are still on track. However...given
the shifting timing...have kept probability of precipitation in the likely category for
now. It will be warm on Tuesday...but with clouds and precipitation
increasing...not as much as Monday. Cooler and drier air will
filter back into the region behind the front Tuesday night.
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
cooler and drier air can be expected on Wednesday as surface high
pressure builds east into the Ohio Valley. High temperatures will
range from the middle 50s to around 60. High pressure will move east
Wednesday night...and east of the area on Thursday. Dry conditions
are expected to continue during this period.
A weak disturbance moves through the area Thursday night. An increase
in clouds and some light shower activity will be possible with
There is quite a bit of variation in the models for Friday.
Continued to go close to the 12z European model (ecmwf) solution. This solution is
much warmer than the GFS.
Aviation /09z Saturday through Wednesday/...
widespread high and middle level clouds remain in place over the
region...with a few patches of lower clouds as well...but
remaining safely in the VFR category. Going through the overnight
and into the first half of Saturday...it is expected that the
clouds will generally thicken and lower. Clouds should be at their
lowest between 15z-21z...where there is a very slight chance of a
sprinkle or some MVFR ceilings. However...the prevailing
conditions are expected to remain VFR. Skies will go clear during
the evening...and remain that way into Sunday.
Light southwesterly flow overnight will turn west-southwest during the
day...with a few gusts in the 15-20 knot range possible. Winds
will shift to the west-northwest by late afternoon...remaining slightly gusty
Outlook...thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.