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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
419 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
AN ELONGATED MEAN MID/UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPRISING THE
MEAN TROF ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF BEING QUICKLY ESCORTED TO THE EAST...AND A SOON TO BE CUT0FF
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE IS A SFC LOW ANALYZED AT 20Z OVER
WRN IOWA...WITH A FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW FROM SE NE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE NW GULF COAST REGION RESIDES ON THE SW FLANK OF AN
EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS SFC HIGH.

ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
90 AND SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. MODIFICATION OF
THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WE HAVE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NC GULF IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE TOMORROW...WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVEL E-W ORIENTED TROF AXIS
TO OUR SOUTH ALSO LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. BY SUN...THE INCREASING
MSTR DEPTH COUPLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
TEXAS WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH BETTER AREAWIDE
CHANCES TAKING SHAPE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. DISCREPANCIES
APPEAR AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY TROF DIGGING
INTO TEXAS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY
OF ERIKA...OR WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT...TWD THE MID/LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

13  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10 
LCH  69  90  71  89 /   0   0  10  10 
LFT  69  91  71  91 /   0   0   0  20 
BPT  70  90  72  90 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

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