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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT IS WAVERING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCES RIDING ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
HAVE PRODUCED AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 02/00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWS THE PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.61
INCHES AND JUST BELOW TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION. SO SOME OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. JUST CHECKED
THE DAILY RAINFALL FOR KLCH OFF THE ASOS...AND SO FAR 2.89 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS BEEN COLLECTED...WHICH WILL BREAK THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR MARCH 1 OF 2.81 INCHES FROM BACK IN 2002.

THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE IS THE FOG. WARM MOIST AIR RIDING OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE AREA LAKE WATERS...IS
PRODUCING DENSE SEA FOG. A MARINE DENSE SEA FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM LOCAL MONDAY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
THE LAKES AND BAY. THIS IS VERIFYING SO FAR...WITH PLATFORM
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS AND THE HELIPORT AT CAMERON BOTH
REPORTING 1/4 OF A MILE...AND CRITERIA IS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
EARLIER...VISIBILITIES FURTHER INLAND REDUCED TO NEAR DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN
SOME. HOWEVER...BELIEVE AS COASTAL TROUGH WAVERS BETWEEN I-10 AND
THE COAST...THAT FOG WILL AGAIN THICKEN AT TIMES...SO HAVE
INCLUDED THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES AROUND SABINE AND CALCASIEU
LAKE IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM LOCAL MONDAY...AS THE
WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY TO SEE IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD
TO INCLUDED PARISHES SURROUNDING VERMILION BAY BEFORE MORNING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRETTY DISMAL AVIATION FORECAST FOR AREA TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HRS. SCT/NUM SHRA COUPLED WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY/CEILINGS THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LIFR AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR
BPT/LCH WITH DENSE MARINE FOG LIKELY THRU MID MORNING MON. ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SE TX/S
LA MON...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT SHRA EXPECTED.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER LOCAL
88DS...IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION OF WARM MOIST AIRMASS/INLAND-
DRIFTING SFC TROF/PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. LATEST SHORT-RANGE
HIGH-RES MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL...WHILE
ALSO DELIVERING YET ANOTHER ROUND LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL LIKELY
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AREA GIVE WAY
TO CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. OTHER MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERRIDING 50S/60 SST OVER THE NWRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEA FOG WELL INTO
MONDAY...AND WITH A CONTINUED SERLY TO SRLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND
THE SFC TROF WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS BEGIN TO SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LATER ON.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE SFC TROF BEGIN WASHING OUT AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL THAT TIME AS NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES IS NOTED DURING THE TIME FRAME. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO BETTER DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER SO
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SMALLER POPS LINGER DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PASS ALOFT TIL THEN. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE A WARM DAY WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORMAL MAXES FOR
EARLY MARCH.

REAL FUN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF IT...
SPC IS MENTIONING TODAY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE STORMS TO ZERO. THEREAFTER COLD AIR OF
CANADIAN SOURCE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ENGULF THE AREA...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY DROPPING 30-40 DEGREES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GOOD OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE OVER CENTRAL
LA/INTERIOR SERN TX...STARTING MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MID-MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS/SOUNDINGS DO WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF ALL
WITH READINGS WELL INLAND DROPPING TO POSSIBLY THE MID 20S. CLOSER
TO THE COAST MINS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WHICH COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AS LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME
PRECIP AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHES NEWD...STAY
TUNED.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE YET ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE MIXED ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK
WITH...THUS ONLY SMALL POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE OUT PERIODS IN
THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY BASED ON VARIOUS REPORTS FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS. COULD HAVE MADE THIS ADVISORY RUN ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BASED ON FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BUT WENT AHEAD AND
EXPIRED IT AT 12Z TOMORROW...WILL LET EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS
DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS ADVISORY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE MAIN STORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE STRONG NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS LOOK CERTAIN AND GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED BY
MID-WEEK AS WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LOOK
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  71  60  76  64 /  50  50  20  30  30 
KBPT  58  70  62  77  63 /  50  50  20  30  30 
KAEX  50  55  52  78  62 /  60  60  30  30  40 
KLFT  64  74  63  78  65 /  50  40  20  30  30 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO 
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL 
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER 
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

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