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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP THIS MORNING MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WHERE THE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ACTING ON THE ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN 
BROAD ASCENSION. EVEN THOUGH WE DO NOT HAVE A LOW LEVEL
TRIGGER...WENT HEAD AND UPPED POPS JUST A NOTCH FOR THE REST OF
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND ASCENSION INCREASES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR UPDATE
IS COMING OUT FOR THE POPS.

06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. SFC OBS INDICATE
MAINLY VFR VISIBILITIES WITH SOME LOWER (IFR/LIFR) CEILINGS
AROUND...WHILE LOCAL 88DS INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE POPPING UP
THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE HELD ONTO JUST VICINITY
MENTIONS TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO BETTER REFINE RAIN THREAT. HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30S FOR LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE
SFC FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDER TO DEVELOP AS WELL
BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT THAT MENTION.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST TO NORTH TX ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS THE SHORT WAVE DRAWS SLOWLY
CLOSER. THIS HAS LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER
MOST CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WHEN DIURNAL HEATING
BEGINS. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SWINGING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE EAST TX LAKES REGION
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY MOVE INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM THE AREA,
HOWEVER ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT MOVING TO THE
COAST BY MID MORNING TO MID DAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL AIR WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY BEGINNING A RETURN FLOW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMING AND MOISTENING WITH A
RETURN OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY, HOWEVER A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WIND DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
SCA MAY BE HOISTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 21KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING AS A RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  73  85  57 /  40  70  30  10 
KBPT  89  72  85  58 /  40  70  30  10 
KAEX  92  70  83  50 /  40  70  20   0 
KLFT  89  75  86  57 /  40  60  50  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06



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