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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW LVL CLDS OVER THE RGN TO CONT WITH AREAS OF FOG XPCTD TO DVLP
TOWARDS SR W/ VSBY FALLING. CONDS TO IMPROVE AFTR SR W. STORM
DVLPMNT DRG AFTN HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ 

UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING BEHIND A COOL FRONT WHICH HAD SETTLE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS...AND ALSO SHOW A COOLER
POCKET OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM THE FORT P0LK AREA TO
ALEXANDRIA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTLINE.

CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH MORE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS THE COOLER AIR MIGRATES SOUTH.

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. WILL DO A SLIGHT TWEAK
DOWNWARD OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA LOWS TONIGHT SINCE THEY ARE
ALREADY UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST LOWS. OTHERWISE
..FORECAST ON TRACK AND DO EXPECT A DRY NIGHT...AT LEAST OFF THE
GROUND. :)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ 

UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED WITH DRIER AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE MUCH UNTIL WE HEAT UP AGAIN TOMORROW. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST
PACKAGE ISSUED. 06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ 

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ 

AVIATION...
RAINS ENDING THIS EVE ACRS SW LA AND SE TX. CEILINGS SHLD BECM
UNLIMITED FOR A PD OF TIME BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. LOOKING
FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP AFTR MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE A FEW LCTNS STILL
HAVE LWR CEILING BUT THAT WILL IMPROVE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS COMBINATION COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW APPROACHING
THE COAST. WITH THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...NUM TSRA DEVELOPED ALONG AND S OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
IN SE TX/SW LA THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING JUST
SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES AND BEAUMONT.

SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG THE FROPA NEAR THE
COAST AND COASTAL WATERS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED ACROSS C LA AND INLAND SE TX WHERE LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER SOUTH...ABOUT THE BEST WE CAN
EXPECT IS MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK...AND
ALONG THE COAST...MAYBE NEAR 70.

THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH FRI...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA TSRA. GOING
30-50% FOR THIS BY THE AFTERNOON.

BY SAT...MAIN CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SEA-BREEZE/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

FOR SUN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE INCREASED LIFT. TODAY'S MODEL CONSENSUS
ADVANCES THE LARGE SCALE FURTHER EAST...THUS ENHANCING OUR PRECIP
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO MOST OF THE DAY SUN INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES YIELDING BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
LIKELY INTO NEXT THU.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT...BRINGING BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
RETREATING BACK NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN
RESUME...INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  80  67  85 /  20  50  20  30 
LCH  66  83  72  85 /  20  40  20  30 
LFT  65  83  71  85 /  20  40  20  30 
BPT  67  83  73  85 /  20  40  20  30 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19

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