Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1034 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH STILL SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS NOTED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AS NORTHERLY FLOW
HELPS ENHANCE LAND BREEZE ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PROVIDE SOME BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS TROF WILL HELP SHEAR OUT REMNANT UPPER
LEVEL LOW. IT WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WHAT IS USUAL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER...AND ACTIVITY USUALLY GET GOING A LITTLE LATER. SO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AFTER 1
PM...AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER
3 PM. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME NORMAL SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE FORMING ATTM WITH SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MAIN
QUESTION TODAY IS POPS WITH THE LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITTING JUST TO OUR EAST. THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THIS LOW MAKES
IT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...FOR NOW AM CARRYING VCSH ALL SITES
TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD. 

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10 
KBPT  91  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10 
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10 
KLFT  90  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations