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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS STILL LOOK TOO DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY...THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE
COASTAL SITES TO SHIFT AROUND TO A SRLY DIRECTION BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SUPPRESSING MOST ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY
THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
RETURNING THE SOUTH FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE MORE TYPICAL 70S
DEWPTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY INTO WED, A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THIS WILL ERODE THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST TX HOWEVER. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
ACADIANA INTO CEN LA WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER SE TX.

THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND THEN SHIFT BACK WEST AGAIN FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BACK ONSHORE. THE SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  10 
LCH  95  76  94  78 /  10  10  20  10 
LFT  96  76  96  77 /  10  10  20  10 
BPT  97  75  94  77 /  10  10  20  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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