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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING. 

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10 
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10 
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0 
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$

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