Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/ 

UPDATE...TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN RAPIDLY ON THE WAY TO RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD BREAKING LOWS. COLD SURFACE HIGH RIDGING RIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHILE CLEAR SKIES
ARE OVERHEAD. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORECAST
LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD 
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20 
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20 
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20 
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. 

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO 
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA 
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. 

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH 
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY 
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER 
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

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