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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...RAINS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WITH RAINS AT ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY...SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE A RETURN
WEDNESDAY BUT VFR STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT TIDE READINGS OF -1 TO -2 FT MLLW ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING FROM THE EARLIER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE
NW GULF...REQUIRED A LOW WATER ADVISORY BE ISSUED. TIDE READINGS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO REBOUND...AND SHOULD RISE ABOVE ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDE APPROACHES. 

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT COME TO AN END...WITH LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAIN OVER THE GULF AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA ALL THAT REMAINS. INHERITED LOW END RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE
AS IS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND THE RESULTANT MIN T HAD TO BE
UPDATED AS CURRENT RAIN COOLED OBS IN SOME SPOTS WERE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FCST. DITTO FOR DEWPOINTS.  

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ 

AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TREND
DOWNWARD. RADAR SHOWING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT STORMS NOW OVER THE
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN EXITING EAST. SOME STRATIFORM RAINS
REMAIN OVER THE BPT TERMINAL BUT THESE WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY.
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILING. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY WHICH HAS LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE EAST TX
LAKES AND CENLA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH WITH RAINFALL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TOWARD I-10. ANOTHER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HRS WITH
MORE CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECAY AS THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES AND AS IT MOVES INLAND.

WED MORNING GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE CWA
WITH SCT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE SUNRISE AND THEN
SPREADING INLAND LATER IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
AFFECTED THE REGION TODAY WILL BE OFF IN THE GULF, HOWEVER ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR A HIGH END CHANCE, HOWEVER
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT LATE WED INTO THU. A MID LVL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL DRIVE
A DRIER MID LVL AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DECREASE POPS
FOR THU AND FRI. WITH THIS DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS HI
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO RETURN TO
THE AREA.

MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS LOW TO MODERATE
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  92  75  94 /  30  50  20  10 
LCH  75  91  78  92 /  30  40  20  10 
LFT  74  91  77  93 /  30  50  20  10 
BPT  72  92  77  93 /  30  40  20  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23

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