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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
813 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Update...convection was little more limited this afternoon and
evening that yesterday but boundary collisions still produced a
few slow moving showers and storms along with minor street
flooding along the East Coast. Lingering boundary interactions
will continue through late evening with widely scattered showers
and a storm or two near the lake with more isolated showers across
Broward and Palm Beach. Will keep an isolated shower mention in
for Miami-Dade as well given the boundaries. Most activity shifts
into the Atlantic after midnight with a few showers brushing both
coasts in developing south-southwest flow.

Minor coastal/street flooding expected to continue in vulnerable
locations during high tides with the last tide peaking just before
8pm this evening and the next high tide between 7 and 8 am
Saturday morning. A coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect. /Alm

Aviation...isold/sct rain showers currently in vicinity of kpbi/kfxe taf sites
are expected to dissipate by ~02-03z. Line of rain showers aligned north-northwest-south-southeast
through central Florida is not expected to move and impact taf sites
overnight. Winds will increase and become wrly at all sites
especially after 14z as a trough digs into the southeast Continental U.S..
uncertainty remains in development of sea breeze tomorrow...but
may be possible mainly after 19-20z. If so, scattered rain showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms and rain could develop along the front, but will handle with
vcsh at East Coast taf sites for now due to uncertainty.
Otherwise...VFR conditions likely predominate at taf sites through
the period. /Kdw


Previous discussion... /issued 430 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015/


This afternoon-tonight...surface boundary remains across central
Florida this afternoon with weak surface developing along it near
the coast. Prevailing west-southwest flow has held off East Coast
sea breeze development a little compared to the past few days but
boundary is now pushing into the interior. Middle level cap will
likely continue to hold off widespread deep expect
more showers and only isolated storms with sea breeze/outflow
boundary interactions into this afternoon and evening. Most
activity diminishes after sunset with a few showers brushing the
coasts overnight in south-southwest flow.

Minor coastal/street flooding expected to continue in vulnerable
locations during high tides over the next few days. Tides continue
to run around a foot above predicted levels and overall tide heights
will be on the rise with the approach of the new moon early next
week. Along with the normally vulnerable locations seen over the
past day or so...may see an expansion in the locations affected
as tide levels rise this weekend. A coastal Flood Advisory remains
in effect through Sunday...and will likely be needed into early
next week.

Saturday-Sunday...mid/upper level trough digs into the southeast on
Saturday inducing surface low development off the east central Florida
coast along the remnant frontal boundary that has been stalled
across the peninsula this week. Surface low lifts off to the NE on
Sunday as trough axis slowly pivots into Florida and southeast coast with
surface front moving into peninsula and S Florida late in the day.

West-southwest flow looks a little lighter on Sat than previous
forecasts so we may be able to get an East Coast sea breeze right at
the coast during the afternoon. This would enhance storm chances
along the East Coast as activity moving off to the northeast across
the peninsula interacts with the boundary. Scattered showers and
isolated storms continue Sat afternoon with numerous showers/scattered
storms along East Coast.

Timing is a little slower with front and trough passage on Sunday so
dry air advection also looks to be later. Looks like a day of
scattered fast moving showers and a few storms as middle level flow
increases with best chances likely late morning and early afternoon
with the approach the surface boundary.

Long term (monday-thursday)...upper low moves up East Coast on
Monday with trailing trough axis moving through during the day.
Models have trended much drier during the day and it now looks like
probability of precipitation will be minimal Monday and Tuesday. Another upper trough moves
through eastern US on Wednesday with reinforcing surface front
with deep and somewhat moist easterly flow setting up for the
latter half of the week as high pressure sprawls to our north and
pressures lower over the northwest Caribbean.

Marine...northeast Atlantic swell continuing to diminish this
afternoon with reports of 3-4ft alng the Palm Beach County coast and
2ft or less further south. Swells will continue to slowly subside
through the weekend with overall wave heights 2-4ft with highest
seas in the Gulf Stream and off Palm Beach County coast.

Winds light and and variable overnight once sea breeze circulation
weakens this evening. West-southwest winds 5-10kts on Saturday
veering north-northwest late on Sunday with late day frontal
passage. Light westerly flow then prevails early next week with sea
breezes bring winds to the south-southeast along Atlantic coast in
the afternoons.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 73 89 72 86 / 20 50 40 50
Fort Lauderdale 76 90 74 87 / 30 60 40 50
Miami 75 89 74 86 / 40 60 30 50
Naples 75 87 73 85 / 10 30 20 30


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for flz168-172-173.

High rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168.



Short term...10/cd
long term....10/cd

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