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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
835 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2014

Aviation...
convection from earlier has diminished this evening with VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the bulk of the 24 hour taf
cycle. Winds will remain light out of the east through the period
and increase with occnl gusts into the moderate range through the
day Saturday. For the Gulf Coast...confidence is not high enough
at this time to indicate westerly winds associated with the
afternoon sea breeze due to the slightly stronger easterly flow
expected...which will need to be monitored in later packages. The
best chance for rain showers/thunderstorms will remain inland and toward the Gulf
Coast areas through the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. 85/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 748 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2014/

Discussion...
storms mostly moved out of the Gulf Coast and lake region into
central Florida early this evening. Drier air and thin Saharan
dust layer will push into the region tonight and Saturday...with
dry conditions expected for the East Coast. Deep easterly flow
will continue...with warm temperatures overnight.

Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2014/

Discussion...
scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop across the area
this afternoon with better coverage thus far than at this time
yesterday. Coverage and intensity of storms should increase through
the remainder of the afternoon and early evening with better
convective parameters in place as well as an established Gulf
Breeze. A few of the storms could be strong with gusty winds and
frequent lightning being the main threats. Activity should diminish
later this evening with heating loss.

Still expecting a thin Saharan dust layer to push into South Florida
through the day Saturday resulting in drier than normal conditions.
Model soundings depict precipitable water values decreasing to less than 1.5
inches through the day. Models do indicate the dry air pushing in a
bit further south than in previous runs which should allow a few
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly
across the Lake Okeechobee area and drier conditions to the south.

Moisture will slowly increase from the east on Sunday as the sal
fades. This will begin a gradual increase in the chance of showers
and thunderstorms. This trend will continue next week...and with the
approach of a middle/upper level trough from the east...expect
scattered to numerous thunderstorms by the middle part of next
week.

Aviation...
high pressure over the western Atlantic has kept the southeasterly
flow across South Florida today. This will keep most convection in
the interior and the Gulf Coast, although kpbi has seen some
convection as well. The convection near kpbi should push inland
over the next couple of hours. Once it does, mainly VFR conditions
are expected across South Florida through the taf period, with
the exception of possible brief IFR ivof thunderstorms and rain. Winds will become
light and variable tonight, picking up once again out of the
southeast in the morning.

Marine...
Ridge axis north of the local waters will prevail through the
weekend and into next week. This will lead to an easterly wind
flow prevailing across the local waters through the forecast
period with speeds less than 15 knots. Seas will be correspondingly
low. The small NE swell from Cristobal will also continue to fade
across the Atlantic.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 79 90 79 90 / 10 10 10 30
Fort Lauderdale 81 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 20
Miami 80 91 80 90 / 10 10 10 20
Naples 77 92 77 92 / 10 30 10 50

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...13/si
long term....10/cd
aviation...13/si

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