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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
432 am EDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Synopsis...
a cold front may bring a few showers to the area today. A stronger
front will bring colder conditions by Saturday
evening...continuing into Sunday. Through the middle of next
week...moderate temperatures can be expected...along with breezy
easterly winds.

&&

Short term /today through Sunday/...
major weather changes underway early this morning. 7z surface observation
depict cold front along I-4 corridor...where a few showers have
formed. Cooler area lags well behind the boundary...with parts of
the Panhandle in the upper 40s this morning. Across South
Florida...a relative warm morning is in store...as temperatures
are in the lower 70s most locations. The presently slow-moving
front will gain southward momentum this morning as vorticity
lobe...currently evident on water vapor imagery over the Tennessee
Valley...pivots around an anomalously deep upper-level trough this
morning. As it does...high pressure will being to build into
Florida. Estimated timing of frontal passage will be after sunrise entering
northwest County Warning Area...reaching Naples to Lake Okeechobee by early afternoon...then
clearing the southeast coast by late afternoon. A few showers could
accompany the front...especially southeast metropolitan areas
where passage will occur at peak heating...but the system is
moisture- and dynamically-starved...so many locations will stay
dry. Any showers should have ended by early evening. Cooler air
arrives later this evening...and despite being overshadow by the
upcoming weather this weekend...minima will be the coldest of the
season thus far at many locations. Following afternoon
temperatures in the middle- 80s....overnight lows will range from
low-50s over Glades and Hendry counties...to middle-60s along the
coasts.

Synoptically...a powerful 500 mb lopres will dive out of west Great
Lakes today and into the southern Appalachians overnight. As it
does...a second cold front will gather strength and trek into the
southeastern Continental U.S.. as the overall upper-level trough deepens
further...the front will spill into South Florida during the day
Saturday. Temperatures will fall late in the day as modified-
Continental polar airmass envelopes the state. Dry air will
preclude any precipitation...but frontal passage will be noticeable by a
marked increase in northwest winds. Minima Sunday morning will be coldest
since February...and will range from around 40f northwest
interior...to M/u40s Naples/West Palm Beach...to middle 50s along the
immediate Atlantic coast. Record lows will likely be
threatened...see climate section below for details. Cool air
remains in place Sunday...with maxima struggling to reach low 70s
despite ample sun.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
with high pressure centered north of Florida...easterly low-level
flow will be quick to return...and temperatures overnight Sunday
will be some 5-10 degrees warmer than previous night. Tight
pressure gradient between middle-Atlantic ridge and general lopres
across the Caribbean will lead to gusty east/northeast winds
through much of the week. Some moisture will return just off the
surface...so periods of cloudiness can be expected through the
period. Cant rule out a shower reaching the Atlantic coast...but
coverage is expected to be so sparse that doesnt warrant mention
in the grids. Temperatures will moderate quickly...returning to
normal /or even above/ by Tuesday.

The persistent easterly winds may lead to significant rip current
risk for the first have of next week on Atlantic beaches.

&&

Aviation...
isolated rain showers will continue to develop out ahead of a cold front
currently draped across the central Florida Peninsula. Rain showers will
gradually increase in coverage through the day as the front pushes
into South Florida. West-northwest to northwest winds behind the
front should begin to affect kapf around 20z with the East Coast
sites shortly thereafter. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected to
prevail outside of any isolated rain showers.

&&

Marine...
the passage of two cold fronts by Saturday afternoon will lead to
progressively stronger northwest winds and increasing seas. A
Small Craft Advisory will be needed this weekend...as waves
increase to as high as 9 feet. For Atlantic waters...hazardous
marine conditions may persist into early next week.

&&

Climate...
heres a look a the forecast high and low at respective climate
sites Sunday...followed by the record lows for the day.

Nov 2
location/ forecast min / forecast maximum / record low min / record low maximum

Miami 53f 74f records - 54f 1993 73 1949
feet Lauderdale 51f 74f records - 51f 1957 72 1931
West Palm Beach 48f 73f records - 51f 1993 72 1964
Naples 48f 73f records - 47f 1993 75 1962

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 84 60 74 48 / 20 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 86 63 78 51 / 30 0 0 0
Miami 85 63 78 53 / 30 0 0 0
Naples 81 64 71 48 / 20 0 0 0

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...23/sk
long term....23/sk
aviation...10/cd

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