Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
739 PM EDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Update...
showers near Lake Okeechobee should continue to dissipate through
the evening hours while rest of South Florida remain dry. There
could be a few showers or a thunderstorm over the Atlantic and
Gulf waters of South Florida late tonight. Probability of precipitation have be removed
from land for the overnight hours...but kept a slight chance over
the local waters. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time
and no other changes are planned.

&&

Aviation...
showers appear to have ended for the night across sofla. Expect
light wind overnight...then sea breeze bringing onshore winds at or below
10 knots by Tuesday afternoon. Scattered rain showers/thunderstorm possible with pop around 40 percent.
Introduced vcsh at 16z all terminals except coastal kfll.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 306 PM EDT Monday Aug 31 2015/

Short term...

Trough associated with remnants of Erika will continue to move
northward from east-central Gulf of Mexico tonight into the
Florida Panhandle by Wednesday. High pressure over the western
Atlantic waters will build westward into the Florida Peninsula
allowing for an easterly wind over South Florida along with both
sea breezes developing and pushing inland. Therefore...the probability of precipitation
will be in the scattered range over South Florida for the middle
part of the week except numerous over the interior areas.

Long term...
long range models are showing that the trough associated with the
remnants of Erika will wash out late this week over the southeast
United States...as a low pressure system develops off the Carolina
coasts and moves slowly southward into the western Atlantic waters
this weekend. This will push the center of the high over the
western Atlantic waters southward into the Bahamas and extend over
South Florida late this week into this weekend...allowing for the
wind to be light over South Florida. Sea breezes will be the main
players late this week into this weekend over South Florida with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Marine...
winds will back from the south this afternoon to the east Tuesday
through end of the week with speeds of 10 knots or less. This will
keep both the Atlantic and Gulf seas at 2 feet or less.
Boating conditions should be good outside of any showers or
thunderstorms over South Florida through rest of the week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 78 92 78 92 / 10 40 20 30
Fort Lauderdale 80 91 81 91 / 10 30 20 30
Miami 79 92 79 92 / 10 40 20 30
Naples 77 92 77 92 / 10 40 20 40

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...54/bnb
long term....54/bnb
aviation...23/sk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations