Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
627 am EST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Aviation...northwest wind of 8-10kts across the region currently behind
frontal boundary with occasional gusts to 18kts. Similar speeds
continue through most of today. Prevailing broken-overcast middle/high
clouds with lowest decks fl050-060, but overall VFR conditions
expected with skies becoming scattered or sky clear after 11/00z. Northwest wind
diminishes to 5-7kts overnight, with a land breeze bringing kapf
around to the NE after 11/03z. /Alm
Previous discussion... /issued 402 am EST Wednesday Feb 10 2016/
Synopsis...high pressure will continue to bring cool and dry
conditions into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of cool air will
arrive Saturday...then a slow warming trend will commence for the
end of the Holiday weekend.
Short term /today through Friday/...
clouds have curbed cooling early this morning...and in
general...temperatures have not fallen as low as expected. Most
areas are holding in the middle and upper 50s this morning.
However...as another surge of cool...dry air makes its way through
South Florida today...temperatures will warm little and maxima
should reach low/middle 60s.
Persistent deep-layer trough will continue over the eastern Continental U.S.
Through the short term...continuing below normal temperatures over
South Florida. Coldest night will be tonight/early Thursday
morning...when most areas will fall into the 40s...and some northern
interior locations will reach upper 30s. Wind speeds are forecast
to be less than previously through...so wind chill values may not
be much of an issue. However...if winds can lighten enough...cant
rule out some patchy frost in Glades /maybe Hendry/ County.
Confidence in this is low and frost hasn't been placed in grids.
After tonight...slow warming trend commences...with maxima by
Friday expected to surpass 70f area wide.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
subtle pattern shift this Holiday weekend as flow becomes more
zonal. This will result in temperatures being only slightly below
normal...and a gradually return of moisture after flow turns
easterly by Washington's birthday. Before that occurs...on more
reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air will move through Saturday.
Monday/Tuesday...models are converging on forecasting potent
shortwave trough digging through the deep south then lifting
toward the Carolinas. The attendant cold front would then cross
Florida Tuesday...providing the first decent chances for rain to
the area in over a week.
Marine...changes to ongoing marine hazards include dropping small
craft advisories for Lake Okeechobee...Biscayne Bay...and
nearshore Atlantic waters. Additionally...Gulf Small Craft Advisory extended
through middle-afternoon as seas are fairly high. For offshore waters off
Broward and Miami-Dade counties...advisory mainly for seas will
continue into this evening...and where most significant waves are
expected...offshore waters from Palm Beach County...headline will
remain up through tonight.
Winds and seas will continue to subside tonight into Thursday.
Northerly winds may briefly turn east Friday before a cold front
Saturday returns them to the north and west. Winds will increase
Sunday...and winds and seas may again be hazardous Sunday into
relative humidity values over portions of South Florida will fall
to near 35 percent each of the next 3 afternoons. However...winds
are expected to be less than 15 miles per hour...and erc values are not
expected to be high during this period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 64 41 66 50 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 66 47 68 56 / 0 0 0 0
Miami 67 48 68 56 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 62 44 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk through this evening for flz069.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for amz671.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Thursday for amz670.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for gmz656-