Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
733 am EDT Monday Aug 3 2015
persistent trough across North Florida will result in light south-southeast-
south-southwest surface wind across South Florida with convection developing
along sea breeze boundaries around 15-17z. These cells will then
move only slowly to the north so just inland of the East Coast
terminals. Thus, left thunderstorms in the vicinity in for all those taf sites through the
Previous discussion... /issued 409 am EDT Monday Aug 3 2015/
Short term (mon-wed)...
South Florida surface flow today, which will be a result of low
pressure in northern Florida and surface ridge axis near the lake
region, will place showers and thunderstorms through the interior
and parts of the East Coast today. Similar to yesterday,
convergence will develop between the southwesterly midlevel flow
and the East Coast sea breeze boundary. 700 mb-500 mb lapse rates are a
little steeper, however the freezing level may climb above 15kft
for the first tine in a few days. Once again storms can produce
some stronger wind gusts. Into tonight and Tuesday, the Panhandle
low moves northeast to the Georgia/SC coast as the ridge axis pokes
deeper into central Florida. The wind profile will then only be
governed by the surface ridge with deeper, although still light
to moderate southeasterly flow. This should push the area of most
numerous thunderstorms/best surface convergence closer to the
interior on Tuesday into Wednesday. However, probability of precipitation will still
remain along the East Coast through the short term as increasingly
weaker surface flow will allow more outflow boundary interactions
with the sea breeze.
Long term (thu-mon)...
Similar pattern continues through the work week. Guidance and Navy
model still indicating a significant slug of dry air (saharan air
layer) approaching near the end of the week, limiting the coverage
of thunderstorms but perhaps allowing them to pack a little more
of a punch. Into the weekend, the surface and midlevel trough
ooze back down the eastern Seaboard, as the western Atlantic/Gulf
of Mexico ridge is divided. Storms may become more numerous again
near the end of the weekend/forecast as the dry layer departs.
Southeasterly to easterly surface winds averaging around
10 knots should prevail across the Atlantic waters early this week
with seas around 2 feet or less. Winds are expected to decrease
across the Gulf waters and become mostly light and variable.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible each day and
night along the Atlantic waters through mainly the first half of
the upcoming week. Much drier air may keep activity isolated over
the Atlantic waters Thursday and Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 92 77 92 78 / 40 40 40 20
Fort Lauderdale 90 77 90 80 / 40 30 30 20
Miami 90 78 91 79 / 40 20 30 20
Naples 90 76 91 76 / 20 10 40 20