Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1021 am EDT sun Mar 29 2015
skies have finally cleared across Southeast Florida...as the pesky high
cirrus canopy has shifted east. This means lots of sunshine today
with temperatures rebounding well into the 70s with continued low
humidity levels as high pressure ridges into South Florida from the
north. A very nice late March day!
A recent ascat pass caught the local Gulf waters and is in line
with our current forecast. C-mans on the East Coast look to be as
Well. Lake Okeechobee observation show stronger winds though...so have
increased speeds there. /Gregoria
Previous discussion... /issued 743 am EDT sun Mar 29 2015/
VFR will prevail. High cirrus clouds over far Southeast Florida will gradually
clear out through early this afternoon. North-northwest winds around 5 knots
will become NE around 10 knots this afternoon East Coast and north-northwest at
kapf by late afternoon. Winds at 5 knots or less are forecast tonight
under a clear sky. /Gregoria
Previous discussion... /issued 347 am EDT sun Mar 29 2015/
Short term (today-tuesday)...
a dry and quiet weather pattern will set up across South Florida
through the short term period. The dry west to northwest middle to
upper flow will dominate as a ridge sets up over the Southern Plains
and a general trough pattern sets up over the western Atlantic. A
surface ridge currently centered over the Carolinas will slowly
shift south this period and the ridge axis will be over South
Florida by Tuesday. This weather regime will result in a return
northeast low level wind flow by this afternoon and slowly veer to
the east early in the week with modifying temperatures. However, due
to the lighter wind expected the moisture levels will remain low
with dew points currently in the 40s only forecast to rise into the
50s towards the middle of the week.
Long term (wednesday-saturday)...
the extended period will not really see many changes as the surface
ridge remains across the Florida Peninsula into the Atlantic. A
southern stream middle level trough will move across the Gulf coastal
states late in the week but most of the effects will be felt across
North Florida leaving South Florida mostly in a dry pattern but dew
points will climb back into the 60s so slightly higher humidity
levels and a continuation of the modifying temperatures.
the wind will begin to veer to the northeast late this morning and
continue to veer to an east to southeast direction by Tuesday into
the end of the week. Wind and seas will also continue to subside
today with seas generally less than 4 feet for much of this week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 74 58 77 62 / 0 10 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 76 63 78 66 / 0 0 10 0
Miami 76 63 79 65 / 0 0 10 0
Naples 78 55 76 60 / 0 0 0 0