Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
152 PM EDT Wednesday may 27 2015
easterly winds around 15 knots will continue through the afternoon
hours. A band of streamer showers has developed off Grand
Bahama. The band should remain south of kpbi and kfxe. Other light
showers were across the Atlantic waters...but these should remain
south of the taf sites. Waterspouts may be possible with this
activity. A weak sea breeze may develop at kapf this
afternoon...and showers may get near the taf site through the
early evening. Winds will diminish to around 10 knots after
midnight and then increase again in the morning to near 15 knots.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail...but brief MVFR ceilings around
3 kft are possible.
Previous discussion... /issued 939 am EDT Wednesday may 27 2015/
high pressure keeping the easterly flow across the region this
morning. Today, the atmosphere has dried out sufficiently that
even the line of isolated showers that has been present for the
last several days has not developed. Between today and tomorrow,
conditions will be dry, with some of the interior areas having the
potential to drop below 35 percent relative humidity in the afternoon. Together
with breezy conditions expected, it may raise some fire weather
concerns, especially with on going fires in the interior of the
Previous discussion... /issued 732 am EDT Wednesday may 27 2015/
mainly dry and VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the
taf period. Easterly winds around 15 knots are expected throughout
the day...with winds 10-15 knots overnight. A few showers could
get near kapf in the afternoon...but probabilities too low to
mention at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 340 am EDT Wednesday may 27 2015/
strong high pressure will remain over the western Atlantic waters
through tonight...as a trough low pressure remains over the
central United States. This will continue to bring an breezy
easterly wind flow over South Florida today into tonight along
with very dry air from the western Atlantic waters. The short
range models continue to show precipitable water values down around 1 inch today
into tonight over South Florida which is close to the minimum
values of 0.90 to 0.95 inches for this time of year.
Therefore...the weather should remain mostly dry over South
Florida today into tonight except for a quick passing light shower
today along the East Coast metropolitan areas and a few afternoon showers
over the West Coast metropolitan areas where the East Coast sea breeze
meets with the West Coast sea breeze.
High temperatures will once again get up into the upper 80s to
lower 90s today over South Florida...except for lower lower to middle
90s over the West Coast metropolitan area. The forecast high for Naples
today is 91 which is close to the record high of 92 degrees set
back in 1998 and 1978. Therefore...near record highs will be
mention again for the West Coast metropolitan areas of South Florida for
The high over the western Atlantic waters will start to break
down on Thursday over the western Atlantic waters...as the trough
of low pressure starts to move slowly east towards the Tennessee
Valley. This will allow for the breezy easterly wind flow to relax
some over South Florida on Thursday...as the very dry air remains
in place over the area with precipitable water values still between around 1
inch. This forecast precipitable water value is still near the minimum precipitable water
values of 0.90 to 0.95 inches for this time of year.
Therefore...the weather will remain dry over South Florida on
The high will continue to weaken on Friday over the western
Atlantic waters...as the trough of low pressure continues to move
east into the Tennessee Valley. This will allow for a little bit
of moisture to return to the area leading to a 20 to 30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
the trough of low pressure will continue to move east this weekend
into the Middle Atlantic States as the high shift a little bit south.
This will keep an easterly wind flow over South Florida this
weekend and allow for more tropical moisture to work into the
area. Therefore...the probability of precipitation over south fl0rida will increase to
chance Cat this weekend with the best coverage of showers and
thunderstorms over the interior and West Coast metropolitan areas.
The long range models are showing a possible upper level low to
develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early to middle of next
week. If this happens...deeper tropical moisture will be able to
work northward from the Caribbean Sea and into South Florida
especially by middle of next week. The probability of precipitation will remain in the
chance Cat over South Florida for early to middle of next
week...but may be needed to be raise more in later forecast if the
long range models continue to show this weather pattern.
the easterly winds will continue over all of the taf sites today
into tonight. The wind speeds will be around 10 knots early this
morning before increasing to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
late this morning into the afternoon hours. The ceiling and visible
will be in the VFR conditions with mostly dry weather.
the breezy easterly winds will continue over South Florida waters
through tonight before decreasing slowly to 10 knots or less by
this weekend. The seas will remain below 6 feet in both the
Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida through this weekend.
Therefore...an scec will remain in place for the
Atlantic...Gulf...and Biscayne Bay waters through tonight for the
winds. The high risk of rip currents along the East Coast beaches
of South Florida will also remain in place through tonight due to
the breezy easterly wind flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 73 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 75 86 75 86 / 10 10 10 20
Miami 74 87 74 87 / 10 10 10 20
Naples 71 90 70 90 / 10 10 10 30
Florida...high rip current risk through late tonight for flz168-172-173.