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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
748 PM EST sun Nov 29 2015

a few showers continue to move across the waters off the
Southeast Florida coast and onshore the Atlantic coast this
evening. However, most locales continue to be dry. The evening
Miami sounding shows a slight increase in low level moisture...and
a further increase in moisture is expected overnight with a
slight uptick in shower activity expected late tonight/Monday
morning across the East Coast/adjacent waters as shown in the hi
res models. This was reflected already in the forecast. Temperatures this
middle evening range from 67f over Northern Glades County to 77f
at most sites along the East Coast. Only about a 5f degree drop
is forecast overnight. No significant changes are needed to the
forecast this evening. Please see previous discussion below for
further forecast details. /Gregoria


Previous discussion... /issued 628 PM EST sun Nov 29 2015/

moisture gradually increases across South Florida overnight into
Monday. NE winds less than 10 knots tonight will become east 12-15 knots on
Monday as high pressure north of area weakens. With the moisture
increase, expect showers to also increase slightly in coverage
along the East Coast. Have vcsh at all Southeast Florida sites
starting around 06z-09z and continuing through the day on Monday.
Any of these showers could briefly produce MVFR conditions, but
too early to pin down any areas or timing of prolonged MVFR
duration. Some models suggesting low ceilings at Gulf Coast/kapf
late tonight and early Monday, and overall pattern does favor at
least a chance of this occurring. Confidence too low to put in IFR
conditions in forecast but have a scattered layer below 1000 feet to
account for this possibility. Kapf should remain dry through
period as any showers remain closer to East Coast. /Molleda

Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM EST sun Nov 29 2015/

Humidity making a return with potential active weather late

the weather across South Florida will become increasingly
unsettled this week. Atlantic high pressure will translate
eastwardas a closed low now over The Rockies moves east and into
the Great Lakes while opening up. A trough will extend into the southeast
states by late week. is not very amplified. The
result will be a weakening cold frontal boundary slowly moving
down the state middle- late week and into South Florida with
potential active weather late week. More on this later.

In the short term...the model consensus brings a slight increase
in low level moisture into Southeast Florida overnight-Monday. Forecast
soundings off both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show this moisture increase
mostly below 850 mb...but enough to warrant chance probability of precipitation for Miami-
Dade/Broward on Monday. The interior could see isolated showers,
but the Gulf Coast/Naples area should remain dry.

Rip currents continue along the Atlantic beaches per ocean
Rescue, so the high risk of rip currents continues through this
evening...and may need to be extended further in time, though
relaxing winds will eventually ease the currents with time early
this week.

Winds out of the east on Tuesday become southeasterly by Wednesday
with the approach of the aforementioned trough and cold front into
north-central Florida. A gradual moistening trend continues ahead of
the front's approach...and humidity noticeably returns as well
with dewpoints hitting 70f+...especially southeast coast.
Isolated-scattered showers are possible this period in the warm
air advective regime.

An active weather period is looking possible Thu-Fri...with
moderate confidence. The active weather could continue into the
weekend...low confidence on that.

Both GFS/European model (ecmwf) show the weakening cold frontal boundary moving
into the lake region or fully entrenched over South Florida by
Thu, then becoming stationary as the shortwave becomes strung
out...not providing enough of a push south. Meanwhile, tropical
moisture flows into South Florida in from the western
Caribbean...and the stage is set for possible active weather late
week. Precipitable water on forecast soundings gets to 2... 2 Standard
deviations above avg, and with the front providing a focus,
locally heavy rainfall looks to be a possibility. Added a slight
chance of thunderstorms this period as well as instability does increase
a tad, despited the abundance of cloudiness projected. The main
concern Thursday-Friday looks to be locally heavy rainfall/urban flood

European model (ecmwf) is more progressive and moves the shortwave east with
improving conditions on Saturday, but the GFS cuts the low off
over the deep south and keeps unsettled weather going into the
upcoming weekend. So again...low confidence on the weekend

Temperatures will be above average all week long as it becomes sticky
with dewpoints on the it's not going to feel anything
like December as we turn the calendar forward this week.

northeast winds will continue to subside while becoming easterly
and eventually southeasterly by Tuesday. Continued the Small Craft
Advisory as nwps shows seas of 7 feet for the Gulf Stream off
northern Palm Beach County. A precautionary statement for small
craft continues tonight for the rest of the Atlantic waters. Seas
though will subside overnight- Monday with no hazardous winds/seas
expected then through late week. /Gregoria


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 73 83 73 84 / 20 20 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 73 82 73 83 / 20 30 20 20
Miami 72 83 73 84 / 20 30 20 20
Naples 66 85 69 85 / 0 10 0 10


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Monday for amz650-670.



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