Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
930 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015
vigorous thunderstorms developed this evening over western sections of
South Florida...as well as over central Florida. An outflow boundary
from central Florida thunderstorms is pushing pretty fast southeastward. The
outflow boundary currently lies from about Palm Bay to Lake
Okeechobee currently. Looks like it has enough push to move
further southeast...so showers and thunderstorms could move into and/or
develop into metropolitan Southeast Florida overnight. As such, the
previous dry forecast for the overnight now looks less likely.
Raised probability of precipitation to chance category for the Palm Beach metropolitan overnight
and to slight chance for the Broward/Miami-Dade metropolitan. /Gregoria
Previous discussion... /issued 804 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015/
interior thunderstorms will remain well west of the East Coast
terminals this evening as they move little or very slow and
erratically. They are however very close to kapf and may even
have to amend their taf if the storms build in their direction.
Activity will diminish after 01z this evening with VFR conditions
remainder of the forecast.
Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015/
the main weather story for the week ahead will be a continuation
of drier than normal conditions...especially across Southeast
Florida where it has been especially dry this rainy season.
Saharan dust will continue as well...at least over the next few
days. The weather pattern this week will favor afternoon thunderstorms
across the interior-Gulf Coast with the potential for a few
thunderstorms at night across the Atlantic coast.
A deep layered mean ridge axis now over South Florida will be
displaced northward as an upper level closed low/TUTT now east of
the Bahamas moves towards the west. Model consensus shows this
feature moving over the Bahamas then SW or even S well to our
south-southeast by middle week. A closed middle level low develops from
this feature and looks to move just south of our area...over the
Florida Straits/Cuba. At lower levels...ridging north of the area will
lead to a continuation of an east-southeast wind flow. This will continue
to focus afternoon convection through the week across the
interior and Gulf Coast. A few nighttime thunderstorms are possible
across Southeast Florida...especially by middle week with the
approach of the middle level trough as 500 mb temperatures cool...to -1.5c to
-2c colder than average for early July. This higher instability could
lead to increasing nighttime convection over the waters with a
few nighttime highly electrified thunderstorms possible across the East
Coast metropolitan areas. An enhancement in tstorm vigor is possible
during the afternoon's over the interior-Gulf Coast middle week as
well due to cold air aloft.
By late week ridging strengthens over the southeast U.S. And
Florida with continued east-southeast flow and really an unchangeable
pattern in daily convection...continuing to focused inland and
toward the Gulf Coast. Middle levels warm late in the week. So looks
like threat for strongest thunderstorms is middle week.
east-southeast winds will prevail at 10-15 knots through the period with seas
less than 4 feet. The only concern will be isolated thunderstorms over the
waters, particularly middle week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 78 90 79 90 / 50 20 10 40
Fort Lauderdale 80 90 80 89 / 20 20 10 30
Miami 80 91 79 90 / 20 20 10 30
Naples 75 92 76 92 / 100 40 20 40