Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
549 am EST Thursday Jan 29 2015
VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hour taf period. Easterly
winds with moderate gusts will be expected through the late
morning and afternoon periods. /85
Previous discussion... /issued 249 am EST Thursday Jan 29 2015/
.Increase threat of rip currents today and again this weekend
for the East Coast beaches...
.Few showers possible this weekend East Coast metropolitan areas...
high pressure over the southeastern United States will move east
into the western Atlantic waters today into tonight allowing for
the wind flow to become easterly over the area. This will allow for
the temperatures to be a little bit warmer with highs today in
the 70s and lows tonight in the 40s except middle 50s to near 60 East
Coast metropolitan areas. The weather will also remain dry today into
tonight over South Florida.
The high will continue to move further east into the Atlantic
waters on Friday allowing for a cold front over central United
States to move south and through South Florida on Friday night.
This front will be a mostly dry front except for a few showers
over the Atlantic waters.
The front will wash out over the Florida Keys this weekend as high
pressure builds into the southeastern United States. This will
allow for a breezy easterly wind flow to set up over South Florida
this weekend along with some low level moisture working into the
area from the Atlantic waters. This low level moisture could allow
for a few showers to develop over the Atlantic waters and work
into the East Coast metropolitan areas. Therefore...the slight chance of
showers will continue for the East Coast metropolitan areas and the
adjacent coastal waters for this weekend.
the high over the southeastern United States will move east into
the Atlantic waters early next week...as low pressure develops
over the southeastern United States and moves northeast toward the
Middle Atlantic States. This will allow for another cold front to
move southward and through South Florida early next week.
Therefore...the isolated showers will continue in the forecast
for early next week over South Florida.
For the middle to end of next week...the long range models are
still showing an area of low pressure to develop over the Gulf of
Mexico and move across the Florida Peninsula. This should allow
for some deeper moisture to work into South Florida from the south
which will lead to a better chance of showers over the area for
the middle to end of next week.
the winds will be a light drainage flow early this morning over
the taf sites before becoming easterly at 10 to 15 knots today.
The ceiling and visible will also remain in the VFR conditions today
over the taf sites.
the winds will be easterly today into tonight before backing more
northerly on Friday. The winds will then swing back to an
easterly direction for this weekend. The wind speeds will remain
below 15 knots today into Friday night before increasing to at
least breezy conditions this weekend. This will allow for the seas
to remain at or below 6 feet in the Atlantic waters and below 6
feet in the Gulf waters today through the weekend. Therefore...an
scec will remain in place for the Atlantic waters due to the
possible 6 feet seas.
There will also be an moderate risk of rip currents today over
the East Coast beaches of South Florida due to the easterly wind
flow. The threat of rip currents will be lower on Friday over the
East Coast beaches due to the northerly wind flow and lighter wind
speeds. However...the threat of rip currents should increase back
to a least a moderate threat this weekend for the East Coast metropolitan
areas as the winds will be increasing again from the east.
the relative humidity could fall down into the middle 30s over the
interior and West Coast metropolitan areas this afternoon. However...the
20 foot winds will remain below 15 miles per hour and the energy release
component (erc) will remain in the middle 20s for this afternoon. The
relative humidity for this weekend will be increasing into the 40s
to 50s as the low level moisture works into the area.
Therefore...no fire weather headlines are expected over South
Florida for today through this weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 72 56 74 57 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 72 58 75 59 / 10 10 10 10
Miami 73 57 76 58 / 10 10 10 10
Naples 74 52 72 54 / 0 0 10 0