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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
146 am EDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail during the early morning
hours. A cold front will continue to move south and probably into
North Florida today. Deep moisture moisture ahead of the front is
expected to enter the region later today. This will allow for a
chance of showers and thunderstorms around 17-19z with all
terminals assigned thunderstorms in the vicinity in that time frame. West to southwest
winds will prevail today although the East Coast terminals...with
the exception of kpbi...could have a sea breeze starting later in
the afternoon around 19z with south-southeast winds around 9 knots.

60

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 844 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014/

Update...
isolated light rain showers from earlier this afternoon have now
diminished across the area giving way to a partly cloudy to mostly
clear sky. Therefore updated pop and weather grids to keep the
area dry through 06z. Short range models do indicate a few
showers possible across the area waters toward daybreak tomorrow
so kept slight chance to chance probability of precipitation across portions of the Gulf
and Atlantic waters after 06z.

Previous discussion... /issued 804 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014/

Aviation...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the bulk of the
period with light west-southwest flow. 5-10 knots southeast flow associated with the
East Coast sea breeze will remain possible through the afternoon
and early evening periods for the East Coast terminals (se winds
beginning around 20z for the terminals south of pbi). The latest
short-range model guidance indicates a slight increase in deep
layer moisture ahead of an approaching frontal boundary later
Tuesday...mainly around the lake and Palm Beach region. This
increase in moisture could lead to more shower/thunderstorm coverage
through the late Tuesday afternoon hours around the pbi terminal
and possibly as far south as fll. 85/ag

Previous discussion... /issued 308 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014/

Discussion...
dry and hot conditions continue across the region this afternoon.
Isolated to low end scattered showers and storms are still
expected to develop across the lake region/Palm Beach County over
the next few hours. A couple showers or storms could also get into
Broward or Miami-Dade County near/after 00z.

The upper trough will push into the deep south and extreme western
Atlantic late tonight into Tuesday morning. A cold front will move
into North Florida...and moisture ahead of the front will push
into central Florida and the lake region. So isolated/scattered
showers and storms are possible Tuesday morning from Naples
northward and east to Lake Okeechobee. Westerly flow will continue
and it will be another hot day with temperatures in the low to middle
90s for the East Coast metropolitan areas. Heat indices are forecast to
be around 100-108 degrees again Tuesday. The prefrontal trough is
forecast to move into the lake region...and moisture is forecast
to increase...especially the northern half of South Florida. The
westerly flow will keep the sea breeze pinned to the East
Coast. The best chance of storms will be near the deeper moisture
and the sea breeze boundaries...which will be central/eastern
Palm Beach and Broward counties.

The deeper moisture will move over South Florida on
Wednesday...and scattered to numerous showers and storms are
forecast throughout the day. Temperatures are forecast to be
closer to normal as well...mainly due to the expected showers and
storms. The boundary could linger across the region into Thursday
and the moisture could linger even longer.

Marine...
mainly southwesterly winds are forecast through the middle part of
the week with guidance indicating winds generally around 10 knots
but guidance also indicates there could be periods where winds
are in the 10 to 15 knot range. Through middle week Atlantic seas are
forecast to be 2 feet or less with the off shore Gulf waters
forecast to have seas around 3 feet possible late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 93 77 90 77 / 40 20 60 40
Fort Lauderdale 93 79 90 78 / 40 20 60 40
Miami 94 79 89 78 / 30 20 60 40
Naples 90 79 90 77 / 20 50 60 20

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...60/bd
long term....57/dg
aviation...60/bd

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