Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
400 am EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
slight drier air will move into the area this afternoon and
tonight...as high pressure builds in. This high pressure will
dominate South Florida weather at least into early next week.
Short term /today through Friday/...
high pressure centered north and east of the Bahamas will
gradually strengthen today...with drier air spilling northward
into South Florida this afternoon and tonight. Still plenty of
moisture for sea-breeze to induce scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms...but coverage will be less than previous few
days...especially over East Coast urban areas where dry air will
be first to reach. This drier than normal airmass will remain over
South Florida through the short term...as ridge axis orients over
the peninsula. Rain chances will be lower than normal both
Thursday and Friday...and should be mostly focused over the
interior where sea-breezes interact.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
deep layer ridge will strengthen further over the weekend.
Scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible...but activity will be less widespread than typical of
late July rainy season. Early next week...an upper level trough
and associated cold front will dig into the deep south and
southeast Continental U.S.. aforementioned high pressure should keep these
features from having much impact on South Florida...but overall
winds becoming more southerly/southwesterly...as opposed to
southeast...may allow for convection to spread toward East Coast
more. Slightly warmer temperatures could also result.
winds will be light over South Florida taf sites early this
morning before becoming easterly at 5 to 10 knots after 15z today.
The only exception to this is at kapf taf site with the wind flow
will be westerly after 16z due to the West Coast sea breeze
pushing inland. Drier air is starting to work into South Florida
early this morning...but there will be enough moisture around to
allow for thunderstorms to develop along both sea breeze today.
Therefore...the thunderstorms in the vicinity will remain in place for all of the South
Florida taf sites after 15z today.
At this time...the timing of the showers and thunderstorms to
affect the taf sites is unknown. Therefore...the ceiling and visible
will remain in VFR conditions for today for all of the taf sites.
However...when the thunderstorms do develop around the taf sites
then a tempo group will be added for the ceiling and visible.
high pressure building over the waters will result light
winds...south at 10 kts or less...and seas of 2 feet or
less...through the weekend. Thunderstorms will be less widespread
than previous few days...but scattered activity is still possible
throughout the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 90 77 90 78 / 40 10 20 10
Fort Lauderdale 89 80 90 81 / 30 10 30 10
Miami 91 79 91 78 / 30 20 30 10
Naples 91 76 91 77 / 40 20 30 20