Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
332 am EDT Sat may 18 2013
Discussion...
the axis of a weakening Bermuda ridge will remain north of the area.
Ridge will remain prominent enough however to provide modest southeast
flow over the region along with bringing moisture north into the area.
The generally light wind regime will promote development of breeze
boundaries along both coasts with a targeted collision roughly
west of Orlando middle to late afternoon. Precipitation chances will be higher
inland due to presence of the boundaries along with an anticipated
late afternoon collision near Lake County/western Orange counties.
Mentionable rain chances will occur with coastal sections likely to see
best rain chance during morning with marine rain showers and the development
of and inland moving East Coast breeze boundary. Have included no
more than 20 percent at coast and 30 inland.
Tonight...showers and isolated ts mainly inland will wind down by
around 10 PM with dissipating cloudiness past midnight and temperatures
falling to around 70 by daybreak Sunday with light to calm winds.
Sun-Sat...the high pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain
north of central Florida which will maintain an east to southeast
low level flow through Saturday. Middle level cap that was
suppressing convection begins to break down Sunday allowing
slightly higher rain chances than previous days. Deepening
southeasterly flow begins pulling more moisture into central
Florida. Greatest depth of moisture forecast to be middle week which
would correlate to the highest pop at around 40 percent. Middle level
dry air returns by Friday but sufficient low level moisture and
Sea/Lake breezes interacting should produce scattered
showers/storms Friday. Coverage of showers/storms drops off to
around 20 percent Saturday as the middle level cap/S effect takes
charge. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s for the
interior. Daily sea breeze formation will limit highs to the middle
80s at the immediate coast/beaches. Middle and upper 80s away from
the coast to west of Interstate 95 where temperatures will have
had more time to rise before the sea breezes push through.
&&
Aviation...
VFR conds with isolated morning rain showers along CST. Isolated/scattered rain showers and ts
mainly inland producing brief MVFR from 18z-23z with decreasing
activity after 01z.
&&
Marine...
seas averaging 3 to 4 feet in southeast flow into Sunday. Local wind wave
appears to be the most prevalent component.
Sun-Wed...east to southeast flow generally 15 knots or less. Seas
3 to 5 feet offshore and 2 to 4 feet nearshore. A 2 to 3 foot long
period swell component will keep the rip current risk low to
moderate.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 86 70 85 70 / 20 20 30 20
mco 90 69 89 69 / 20 20 30 20
mlb 86 72 86 73 / 20 20 30 10
vrb 84 71 85 72 / 20 20 30 20
Lee 90 70 89 71 / 30 20 40 20
sfb 90 70 90 70 / 20 20 30 20
orl 89 71 90 71 / 20 20 30 20
fpr 85 70 85 72 / 20 20 30 20
&&
Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Short term...pendergrast
long term....Wimmer
