Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
330 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Discussion...
..hazardous surf/rip currents through the week...
Today-tonight...surface ridge axis will set up across North Florida
and Georgia through the day...veering yesterday's breezy
northeasterly flow more to the east by this afternoon though speeds
will not be quite as strong as yesterday.
Radar is picking up on a few sprinkles over the Gulf Stream...mainly
south of Jupiter Inlet and mesoscale models show very little
reaching the coast north of there through the day. So a dry forecast
will continue today and tonight under partly cloudy skies in high
clouds.
High temperatures in the middle to upper 80s over the interior and low
to middle 80s along the coast. Overnight lows generally in the low-middle
60s...with upper 60s and low 70s along the coast south of the cape
due to the onshore flow.
Memorial Day...air mass is still forecast to be quite dry with
precipitable water less than an inch. Surface high pressure ridge
axis will shift a little to the north...which will cause the
pressure gradient to tighten a bit. Increasing onshore winds
should raise moisture levels in the south and there could be a few
Atlantic showers pushing into Martin County. High temperatures look to be
nearly a persistence forecast.
Tue-sun...a prolonged period of easterly winds on tap as high
pressure ridge axis north of the state moves little. The pressure
gradient will remain tightened so expect breezy conditions for
much of the period. Just with this onshore wind flow...moisture
levels would increase. This is reflected in MOS probability of precipitation that gradually
rise through middle to late week.
This easterly flow pattern favors mainly Atlantic showers moving
into the coast with a slight chance of thunder...but there is a
chance that this will evolve into a disturbed easterly flow. The
00z GFS indicates a weak 500 mb low cutting off vicinity of
Florida by middle to late week. Will not differ from the MOS probability of precipitation
which maximum out around 40 percent...but later forecasts may have
higher numbers during the latter part of the week if the middle/upper
levels evolve as the GFS is hinting at.
Maximum temperatures will moderate back to normal (upper 80s) except
remaining a few degrees below average along the coast. Low temperatures
will be close to normal except for above normal readings along
the south half of the coast where some low to middle 70s are forecast.
&&
Aviation...VFR conds with occasional broken cirrus.
&&
Marine...
today-tonight...pressure gradient has relaxed over most of the
waters as the ridge axis sets up across North Florida and Georgia.
As a result winds have dropped to 10-15kts over most of the
waters...with the exception of south of Fort Pierce inlet where the
gradient remains tighter and winds are likely closer to 15-20kts.
Similar speeds will continue through the day as the flow veers more
easterly late this morning with 10-15kts north of Sebastian Inlet
and 15kts points south. Seas 3-5ft early...becoming 3-4ft through
most of the day with dominant periods increasing to around 8sec by
middle morning.
Monday...high pressure ridge axis nudging north should allow the
gradient to start increasing. East winds should start out around
10 knots in the north and 10-15 in the south...then during the
afternoon speeds should pick up about 5 knots.
Tue-Thu...the pressure gradient will gradually tighten...causing
poor to hazardous conditions for small craft. Increasing moisture
will also start to produce Atlantic convergence lines with showers
and a few storms.
&&
Fire weather...
today...despite lower dewpoint strong marine influence should
inhibit development of extreme relative humidity conditions. Locations in Lake
County will see a few hours of relative humidity values 30-35 percent this
afternoon with the remainder of the area remaining around 40 percent
or above. However easterly winds will be lighter than yesterday at
10-12 miles per hour.
Mon-Thu...increasing moisture through the period with rain chances
returning to the forecast Tuesday and gradually increasing through
late week. Increasing onshore winds will become breezy at 15 to
20 miles per hour and gusty.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 82 66 83 69 / 0 0 10 10
mco 87 66 88 66 / 0 0 10 10
mlb 82 71 83 75 / 0 0 10 10
vrb 83 71 83 73 / 10 10 10 20
Lee 88 65 88 69 / 0 0 10 10
sfb 86 66 87 68 / 0 0 10 10
orl 86 67 87 69 / 0 0 10 10
fpr 82 69 83 74 / 10 10 10 20
&&
Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Short term/aviation...Moses
long term....lascody
