Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
149 PM EST sun Dec 8 2013
current-Monday...the surface ridge axis will remain fixated across
east central Florida through the period. Southeast winds over the
area will fall to light or near calm into the interior while
remaining 5-10 miles per hour along the immediate space and Treasure coasts.
With a slight onshore component continuing cannot rule out a
sprinkle or brief light rain shower along the Treasure Coast through
tonight. The bigger ongoing issue remains fog development overnight.
Will go with areas of fog once again over the interior...biggest
problem area from near the I-4 corridor northward. Patchy ground fog
possible across coastal counties inland from the coast late. As with
recent days expect any fog/low clouds around past sunrise will
gradually burn off through middle morning.
Overnight lows continuing mild and mainly in the 60s. Highs on
Monday from around 80 degrees to lower 80s along the coast and lower
to middle 80s over the interior.
Monday night-Tuesday-Tue night...warm pattern continues with 590 dm 500
mb ridge across S Florida. Low level ridge will extend from the Atlantic across
the Central Peninsula but will begin to shift south Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday
night as a frontal boundary drops south across the Northern Peninsula.
Temperatures will remain about 8-10 degrees above average through the
period with precipitation chances 10 percent or less below mentionable range.
S/SW low level flow Tuesday afternoon should allow highs to approach
the middle 80s...possibly within a few degrees of record highs. Main
fog concern will be across the northern interior Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. Will add patchy fog to the grids for now and may need
to hit fog a bit harder across the northern interior in later forecasts.
Previous extended discussion...
Wednesday-next sun...weak shortwaves moving through fast west/southwest
flow over the eastern states are forecast to gradually erode
blocking ridge. This should get the frontal boundary sagging
southward and by Thursday it looks like the front will reach the local
As has been the case the past several runs...the front will not
have much cooling/drying as winds quickly veer to onshore behind
it...though it should be noted that the European model (ecmwf) is a little cooler
than the GFS. Will side with the GFS for now as it has been rather
consistent with the temperature forecast the last several cycles.
With the slow frontal movement...the 00z GFS has trended drier Wednesday
with probability of precipitation less than 20 percent and the European model (ecmwf) even drier. For now
will leave a small pop that day. After that...hate to string out
small probability of precipitation for several days...but with breezy onshore flow and
MOS probability of precipitation showing 20-30 percent from Thursday Onward...will do just
that. The 00z GFS showed a shortwave trough approaching in the
southern stream next Sunday...but the European model (ecmwf) does not...so we will
have to see how that turns out.
Aviation...se/SSE winds will fall to light or near calm this
evening over the interior and elevated slightly along the space and
Treasure coasts. Still cannot rule out a sprinkle or isolated light
rain shower along the coast as well. Inland from the coast patchy
fog will become an issue once again late overnight into early Monday
morning. Taf sites in vicinity of the I-4 corridor may see locally dense fog.
VFR conditions otherwise.
Marine...tonight-Mon...low-level ridge axis will remain in position
oriented east-west across central/north-central Florida. Southeast/south-southeast winds 10-15
kts. Seas 3-5 feet in a lingering long period swell. Isolated light
rain showers or sprinkles will continue in the forecast.
Southeast flow Monday night-Tuesday to 12-15 knots offshore will elevate seas
to 3-4 feet near shore and up to 4-5 feet offshore. Lighter winds Tuesday
night-Wednesday will let seas drop a bit and then stronger winds expected
Thursday behind the next front dropping through the waters will raise
seas to advisory levels by afternoon. Seas will continue to build
into Friday reaching 9 feet offshore.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 65 80 64 83 / 10 10 10 10
mco 63 83 63 84 / 10 10 10 10
mlb 68 81 68 83 / 10 10 10 10
vrb 68 81 66 83 / 10 10 10 10
Lee 63 82 64 83 / 10 10 10 10
sfb 64 83 64 83 / 10 10 10 10
orl 65 82 65 83 / 10 10 10 10
fpr 66 81 66 83 / 10 10 10 10