Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1156 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Update...
issued at 1147 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Updated for 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 340 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Pretty straight forward weather pattern in the short term. The
stacked low across the Great Lakes will remain fairly stationary
while high pressure slowly trickles down from Canada. As a
result...the upper Midwest will experience northwest winds through
Tuesday night. H850 temperatures will remain around -15c...so
little cold air advection will take place despite the favorable
northerly wind direction.

High temperatures will rebound little today from this mornings
lows. Later tonight winds will decrease...and if they completely
decouple could see very cold temperatures across northeast
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Decreased lows slightly in this
area with double digit sub zero temperatures a real possibility.
No precipitation is expected except for a few light snow showers
in western Wisconsin.

Long term...(wednesday through tuesday)
issued at 340 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Wednesday-Friday...the pattern of Stout northwest flow aloft with a trough
over the eastern Continental U.S. And a ridge over the western Continental U.S. Will remain in
place for the latter half of the week. A pair of weak low pressure
centers will be driven southeastward mainly through the northern plains region with
dense cold areas of high pressure pushing them along the way. Though
each will contain limited moisture and confine any measurable
precipitation to far western and southern Minnesota...there is enough appreciable model
agreement to have mentionable probability of precipitation for each of the Wednesday and Thursday
night periods. Snow accumulations for each period look to be no
more than an inch. The Arctic air surges will keep highs in the
single digits to middle teens while lows generally drop to between
10 above and 10 below zero. The coldest night will be Friday night
where lows may drop to as low as 15 degrees below zero in northern and
eastern portions of the weather forecast office mpx County warning forecast area...along with wind chills dropping
to between 20 and 30 degrees below zero.

Saturday-Tuesday...a pattern change for the weekend into early
next week has become more and more evident on both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf)...so it can no longer be unmentionable due to prior
uncertainty. The East Coast trough will shift into the Atlantic while the
western ridge moves into the central Continental U.S. And gradually flattens out.
By early next week...a more organized low pressure system looks to
move into the area but its location and track is still a bit
uncertain. However...it does warrant the mention of probability of precipitation for Tuesday.
In addition...the breakdown of the northwest flow aloft and the approach
of the upper ridge spells a break in the well below temperatures the
area is to have through the rest of this week. Highs will increase
to near normal sun-Tue...including highs climbing above the
freezing mark early next week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1147 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

High pressure axis through Minnesota today keeping skies mostly
clear except for far western Minnesota. Skies look to remain clear
through the forecast period...with the exception of a few high
clouds working in overnight. Northwest winds will be gusty through the
afternoon...and gradually diminish overnight.

Kmsp...VFR with mostly clear skies expected.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Wednesday night...VFR. North wind less than 10 knots.
Thursday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Thursday night...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with a
chance of snow. West wind 5 to 10 knots.
Friday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible early with a
chance of snow. Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...speed
short term...jrb
long term...jpc
aviation...speed

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations