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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
410 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET OTHERWISE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS IS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME. SO FAR ABOUT 10 CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES DETECTED BUT
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MESOSCALE MODELS CAPTURED THIS WELL AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE CELLS WESTWARD OVER COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY
(ROUGHLY THROUGH FORT HUNTER LIGGETT/JOLON/LOCKWOOD AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARDS THE BIG SUR COAST AROUND GORDA). MAIN THREAT WILL BE SMALL
HAIL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE CELLS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS UPPER LOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
 
MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE BAY AREA IS ENJOYING A SUNNY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING OVER
MT HAMILTON AND THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS. THESE CLOUDS WILL COLLAPSE AS
THE SUN SETS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL DIVE DOWN THE
COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN RAIN SHIELD
WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER PROXIMITY
OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD DESTABILIZE THINGS ALOFT TO ALLOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS. FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HILLS OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM.

ONCE AGAIN AS THE SUN SETS ON MONDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING CELLS
WILL COLLAPSE.

AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
AND BAY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEK WITH MILD NIGHTS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING SOLAR SUN ANGLE.

UNFORTUNATELY WE STILL NEED MORE RAIN AND THE WET SEASON IS
QUICKLY ENDING. THE MODELS LOOK MOSTLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
WITH SOME HINT FOR SOME RAIN BY MID-MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST SUNDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
OCCASIONAL FEW TO SCATTERED LAYER. THERE EXIST A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OVER KMRY OR KSNS THIS EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AGAIN MONDAY TO KMRY
AND KSNS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. 

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT CU DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. 

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE BAY AREA WATERS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

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