Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
313 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STARTING TO NARROW IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS...THUS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THERE BEFORE LONG.
THIS PATCHY FOG IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF OUR DISTRICT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
WEST COAST BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 

LATE NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SPREADS RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS FAR
SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
HOWEVER...HAS A CUT-OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO...GIVEN THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 03:13 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR LVK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. 

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002 
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations