Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
331 am EST Friday Nov 28 2014
high pressure builds from the west today and moves to the east by
Saturday. A warm front will move across the area Saturday night
followed by a cold front Monday. High pressure follows Tuesday and
Wednesday. Another frontal system impacts the area later in the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a middle/upper level trough and associated positive vorticity advection moves east this morning.
Surface high pressure builds from the west. Any morning clouds will
give way to sunshine as the day progresses. Cold air remains
entrenched across the northeast...and high temperatures will remain well
below normal in the 30s.
Gusty northwest winds will make it feel colder.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
trough departs to the east...with flat northwest to southeast flow aloft expected.
Middle level warm air advection will result in an increase in clouds.
As the surface high builds...northwest winds lighten. As for low temperatures
tonight...much depends on extent of cloud cover and how quickly the
clouds move in. For now will split the difference between colder mav
and ecs numbers and warmer met numbers. Either way...a cold night is
expected with readings in the 20s and teens.
A warm front approaches and moves through late in the day Saturday.
Expect one more cold day with readings in the 30s as clouds prevent
temperatures from rising much. However...increasing southerly winds and
ensuing warm air advection will result in steady or even rising
temperatures Saturday night.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
a zonal flow will prevail with several fast moving frontal systems
to impact the area through the upcoming week. Pacific short wave
energy will phase with polar jet energy with a cold frontal passage
late Monday...and another Wednesday aft/eve. Light to moderate warm advection
precipitation precedes each system with a brief mix of frozen precipitation
at the onset possible across the interior before Thermo profiles
warm. Sun morning and Tuesday night are the times of interest. The
latter is potentially the more significant of the two as it preceded
by a transient 1040-1045 mb high moving across New England. Warm
sector rain or showers will precede each cold front.
For the most part...looking at slightly above normal temperatures through
the period due to the progressive flow...the exception being Tuesday
following the Monday cold frontal passage.
Aviation /09z Friday through Tuesday/...
a high pressure ridge builds in through today.
Northwest wind generally below 10 knots...increasing to 10 to 15 knots by 14z
with gusts up to 20 knots during the day.
Outlook for 06z Sat through Tuesday...
Sun night-Mon...MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers.
gusty northwest wind to around 25 knots will be possible today across
the ocean waters and the eastern Long Island Sound and Peconic and
gardiners bays as cold advection continues and low level winds are
25 to 30 knots this morning into early afternoon...then diminishing.
Expecting marginal small craft conditions into middle afternoon. In
addition...seas across the outer portions of the forecast area will
also be marginal...around 5 feet...into this afternoon. Will continue
with the Small Craft Advisory on the ocean and eastern sound...and
Peconic and gardiners bays through today only.
With high pressure building into the waters tonight into Saturday
wind and seas are likely to remain below small craft.
Ocean seas/winds could again reach marginal Small Craft Advisory levels Sat night
into Sunday night via a moderate SW flow. Small Craft Advisory seas may linger on the
ocean into Monday. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast from Monday night into
no significant precipitation is forecast during the next 7 days.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for anz330-
near term...precipitable water
short term...precipitable water