Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
152 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
low pressure offshore tracks northeast tonight and reaches the
Canadian Maritimes by late Friday. Meanwhile...high pressure builds
in behind the low through Friday night. A quick moving cold front
approaches Saturday and moves across the region Saturday night.
High pressure then builds into the region to start the new week.
Another cold front will move across the region Wednesday into
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
stacked low pressure tracks NE through Georges Bank during the
overnight hours. This will keep breezy conditions over the tri
state area...with winds only diminishing a little late at night.
Spokes of vorticity rotating around the departing low will bring
rounds of scattered shower activity to the region
overnight...particularly lower hud valley/southern CT and eastern Li.
The first round will diminish through midnight as shortwave slides
S...with a second round likely late tonight into early Friday
morning. Overall any activity will be light.
Lows generally in the 40s overnight.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Saturday/...
shortwave rotating around the periphery of the departing low
pressure system could provide a shower in spots over CT and eastern
Li Friday morning. Otherwise....dry elsewhere through the day
Friday. With cyclonic flow strato-cumulus will likely hang tough during
the day...particularly northern and eastern portions of the
tri-state. Clouds and winds continue to diminish Friday night.
Mav/NAM MOS blend looked good for temperatures through the period.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
low pressure will continue to move north into the Canadian Maritimes
this weekend. Closer to our region...high pressure will start to
build into the region on Saturday. A low pressure system moving
across Canada will drag a cold front across the region Saturday
night. At this time it appears the front will come through
dry...however there could be a few isolated showers possible. Strong
northwest gradient develops Sunday afternoon with 15-20 miles per hour winds with
20-30 miles per hour gusts.
High pressure will build south of the area Sunday into Monday and
the move offshore Monday night and Tuesday. The air mass will
moderate and temperatures will be mild...with highs in the middle to
upper 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front approaches
Wednesday night into Thursday...with cooler temperatures expected
for the end of the week.
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
low pressure east of Cape Cod will move slowly northeast...passing
south of Nova Scotia today as high pressure slowly builds from
VFR should prevail at NYC metropolitan terminals through the taf period
although cyclonic flow should keep a broken stratocu deck between 3500
and 5000 feet around today. Kbdr is currently VFR but could see some
MVFR clouds move in from time to time during the remainder of the
night. Kisp/kgon starting off MVFR will gradually lift to low end
VFR. Timing could be a few hours off. VFR then remains at all
terminals through the rest of the taf period.
Khpn and kisp still experiencing freq gusts so have kept them in
for a few more hours. Any of the terminals could see an occasional gust
up to 20 knots through the remainder of the night. Northwest flow/gusts pick up
again after sunrise...around 14z. Directions expected to remain right
of 310 magnetic until middle evening.
Expect mainly vicinity impacts from
light showers at most terminals early this morning...but with
little if any impact on flight category.
Outlook for 00z Sat through Tuesday...VFR.
low pressure track NE reaching Nova Scotia Friday night.
Gale Warning has been cancelled for ocean waters with winds
currently running just below gale and expected to slowly subside
overnight. Frequent Small Craft Advisory gusts expected to gradually fall below Small Craft Advisory
late tonight across all waters.
Marginal near-shore Small Craft Advisory gusts possible all waters on Friday depending
on amount of sunshine and mixing overland. Ocean seas should
gradually fall below Small Craft Advisory Friday after.
Sub Small Craft Advisory conds likely Friday night into Sat.
Tight northwest gradient develops on Sunday with 25-30 knots wind gusts
likely...and gusts may approach 35 knots on the eastern ocean waters
for a brief time Sunday afternoon.
Conditions gradually subside below Small Craft Advisory criteria Sunday night through
Monday. Tranquil conditions expected for the first part of the new
week. Next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will be late Tuesday night or
Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west.
no significant widespread precipitation expected through the first
half of next week.
water levels are expected to stay below minor flooding thresholds
for this evening high tide cycle...with residuals continuing to
fall into tomorrow.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT early this morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for anz350-