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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
214 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Synopsis...
an upper level disturbance will remain over the region through
Thursday while high pressure builds in at the surface to end the
week. A cold front will pass on Saturday...followed by potentially
another frontal system for the beginning of next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
rain across southern CT in associated with a mesovort is gradually
weakening in intensity after producing several inches of rainfall
this morning into early this afternoon. Hardest hit areas were
Middlesex...New Haven...and western New London counties. This area
of rain looks to be slow to move east over the next several hours
and should expand south across portions of central and eastern Li
this after as the upper low moves overhead. To the west...rain
chances will remain low.

High in the low to middle 60s looks to be reasonable with a few
spots slightly warmer around NYC metropolitan.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...
precipitation continues this evening...with the main question on the ending
time. Upper level low pivots east...with the main forcing generally
residing over eastern areas of the County Warning Area for the night. As
such...began to taper probability of precipitation back for the first half of the
night...with dry conditions even possible by 06z west of NYC.
Confidence rests with the precipitation continuing though over eastern Li/southeast
CT. However...with the bulls eye of main forcing mainly
offshore...siding more with precipitation being on the lighter side. 00z NAM
and European model (ecmwf) do suggest the potential for some heavier showers over the
far eastern reaches of the County Warning Area...but will want to see the trend for
the day before siding with the heavier amts. Light precipitation lingers just
offshore then during the day Thursday...tapering off late in the day
as the upper level low finally exits the region...being replaced
with ridging aloft.

&&

Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
high pressure will keep the area dry through Friday evening. The cold front passage
and associated rainfall are still lined up for late Friday night into
Sat. The 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to support this timing. Pop has
been increased to Cat for Sat...and likely pop also continues into
early Sat evening across southern CT and Long Island.

Sunday will be dry as all of the moisture will be shunted off to the
east. Then rain chances should return for the beginning of next week
with an upper trough approaching...mainly Monday into Monday night.

For highs...both Friday/Sat should see upper 60s/lower 70s...then a
cooler day on Sunday with only Lower/Middle 60s. Slight moderation
expected ahead of the next upper trough...mainly 65-70. Lows Sat
night and Sunday night do not look to be cold enough for
frost concerns.

&&

Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
an upper level low remains over the region today with a moist low
level northeast flow prevails at the surface. As a result...expect IFR
or MVFR conditions through the taf forecast period.

On and off light rain with a few embedded showers will continue
for much of the taf period across Long Island and southern CT.
Further west...there is a lesser chance of precipitation.

High confidence in the persistent north-northeast surface flow
through the period. Winds increase on Thursday with gusts into the
upper teens and lower 20s.

... Metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)

Kjfk fcster comments: unable-forecast fluctuations in ceiling category
expect through the period. High confidence in wind forecast.

Klga fcster comments: unable-forecast fluctuations in ceiling category
expect through the period. High confidence in wind forecast though
direction may swing 20 degrees right of 040 magnetic at times.

Kewr fcster comments: unable-forecast fluctuations in ceiling category
expect through the period. Chance of brief periods of VFR in the
afternoon. High confidence in wind forecast.

Kteb fcster comments: unable-forecast fluctuations in ceiling category
expect through the period. Chance of brief periods of VFR in the
afternoon. High confidence in wind forecast.

Khpn fcster comments: unable-forecast fluctuations in ceiling category
expect through the period.

Kisp fcster comments: unable-forecast fluctuations in ceiling category
expect through the period.

Outlook for 18z Thursday through Monday...
Thursday afternoon...VFR possible late. NE winds 10-15 knots with gusts
to 20kt.
Friday...VFR. Light southeast wind.
Sat...rain - MVFR or lower at times. Southeast wind 10-15g20 knots.
Sun-Mon...VFR.

&&

Marine...
Small Craft Advisory conditions on the ocean waters today through tonight with
increasing NE flow. Gusts up to 25 kts will be possible later this
afternoon...while seas generally between 5 and 7 feet are expected. On
the non ocean waters...sub-sca conditions today. Could see occasional
gusts up to 25 kts in the bays around Long Island and eastern Long
Island Sound...with the potential to become more persistent
tonight. As such...a Small Craft Advisory might need to be issued for these waters
tonight/Thursday. The remaining waters should remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Thursday. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the eastern
two-thirds of the ocean waters until Thursday evening...while the
Small Craft Advisory continues for the western portions just through tonight.

For Thursday night and beyond...hazardous ocean seas are likely to
continue from Thursday night into Friday morning...they should fall blw 5 feet
late Friday into Friday night...and once again ramp up through the weekend.
Elsewhere...the eastern sound/bays could see Small Craft Advisory conds in Post-frontal west
flow on Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conds are possible all waters again on Monday ahead
of the next system.

&&

Hydrology...
rainfall totals today across Long Island and Connecticut will
range from a quarter of an inch to three-quarters of an inch.
Areas to the west will generally be a tenth of an inch or less.

Quantitative precipitation forecast of 3/4 to 1 inch likely northwest of NYC on Sat with cold front...and
1/2 to 3/4 inch farther east.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for anz355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for anz350-353.

&&

$$

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