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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
605 am MDT sun Oct 4 2015

Update...a quick update to account for light showers that have
developed across the upper snake plain and Highlands. They will
drift toward Lemhi County and the Lost River/pahsimeroi region
through middle morning. Keyes


Previous discussion... /issued 316 am MDT sun Oct 4 2015/

Short through Tuesday. We are watching a deepening
low drop toward Southern California today. Behind that...we are
seeing a pretty strong pressure gradient this morning. That is
producing some decent northerly winds coming out of the upper
snake Highlands and central mountains...down across much of the
snake plain. Gusts of 25-45 miles per hour have been common overnight and
will remain so this morning...before tapering off later today.
This is actually creating wind chills in those areas in the 15-35
degree range. So bundle up this morning if you are heading
outside. Where you don't have to worry about wind still
might be a bit chilly with actual temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
As the flow splits...eastern Idaho will be in between the
California low and the weaker northern branch wave. That means
for US...some showers today mainly across the southern and eastern
Highlands. A few showers may also pop up across Sawtooths but the
rest of the area should be dry today. The low will slowly turn
east and takes it time moving toward the central and southern
rockies. The models and ensembles are still showing there is a
range of possibilities on the track. However...the consensus is
that any real chance of precipitation will come across the
southern and eastern Highlands. Could there be isolated showers
elsewhere? Certainly and that is accounted for in the forecast
until we see a more definitive trend. We will be warming up some
more but early week highs look pretty persistent in the 65-75
degree range for the valleys and around 10 degrees cooler in the
mountains. Keyes

Long term...Wednesday through next weekend. We will see the
overall pattern shift east...meaning a pretty strong ridge over
the Pacific moves into the western United States by the end of the
week. We will see temperatures warming up some but not a huge
jump. There will also be some moisture moving over the top of the US some clouds and a slight chance of mountain
showers across the north. The ridge will actually start being
squeezed back south as the Aleutian low starts kicking out
multiple waves across the Pacific toward Canada and the northern
U.S. For looks like precipitation holds off until early
next week. Keyes

Aviation...VFR conditions expected at all terminals through
tonight. East Idaho remains under the influence of weak trough but
between northern stream and cut off southern stream low. Most of the
moisture remains close to the southern low but enough residual from
departing system along with areas of sun today will allow isolated
convection. Focus should remain over eastern Highlands and portions
of the central mountains but current expectations are that the terminal
sites in east Idaho will remain dry. Gusty northerly winds this
morning should decrease through the day. Dmh

Fire weather...east Idaho remains under influence of weak trough
aloft with just enough moisture present to allow isolated showers to
form today. Focus remains over the eastern Highlands but cant rule
out weak convection over the central mountains as well. Thunderstorms nor
wetting rains are expected. Humidities remain somewhat elevated
today as well. Warming trend next few days may help to increase
instability for a threat of isolated thunderstorms through middle week.


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...


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