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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
205 PM MDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Short term...expecting isolated thunderstorms mainly over the
mountains this afternoon and evening since there is little in the
way of forcing other than orographic lift...and much of that should
be focused in the central mountains. Thunderstorms in the central
mountains at least should be more active Friday with an embedded wave
off the Pacific moving through Oregon and northern Idaho. More
support is also present in the eastern Highlands from Bear Lake to
Palisades Reservoir. Both the GFS and NAM models support a limited
surge of monsoon moisture moving north from eastern Nevada by
Saturday morning. Early morning timing of of a disturbance crossing
California to Idaho could be a set up for thunderstorms and
lightning to develop near sunrise in the eastern Magic Valley.
Activity then expands north and east through the day.

Long term...Sunday through Sunday...the high pressure
ridge shifts a little further east over Montana and Wyoming which
should focus afternoon thunderstorms in the south central...eastern
and upper snake Highlands. The GFS model in particular brings yet
another surge of monsoon moisture to Idaho on Monday. Then more
zonal flow off the Pacific Tuesday and Wednesday. Receiver station


Aviation...more of the same expected. We will see daily showers and
thunderstorms. Expect VFR weather except with stronger storms where
the potential for reduced ceilings and visibility due to heavy
rainfall. Gusty outflow winds are also possible. Keyes


Fire weather...we can expect more of the same with showers and
thunderstorms each day across the region. We should see isolated to
widely scattered storms today and Friday...although we will be very
close to seeing scattered storms in some mountainous areas. For
now...that will keep US out of red flag conditions for areas
currently with critical fuels. Saturday and Sunday may indeed see
higher coverage of storms areawide due to a slight increase in
monsoon moisture and a couple of stronger disturbances moving
through. We may need red flag headlines for one or both days based
on the current trends. Heavy rain and gusty outflow winds are the
main threats. Due to the nature of this pattern...we are still
dealing with some uncertainty daily as the models tend to not pick
up some details until right before an event begins. Keyes

Pih watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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