Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
307 am MDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
Short term...today through Thursday.
Expect very warm conditions today and Wednesday as flow aloft
turns southwesterly allowing more warm air into southeast Idaho.
High temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals
today and Wednesday. Expect dry conditions across the entire
region today and Wednesday. The first chunk of a large
approaching upper level system will move through Thursday and
drive through a cold front. Temperatures will begin to cool down
Thursday by as much as 10 degrees with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the central mountains. Expect some breezy
conditions Thursday with the approach of the cold front.
Long term...Friday through Tuesday.
Still some model differences in timing the upper level system
through the region on the weekend. Best days for precipitation
still appear to be Saturday and Sunday and kept in highest chances
those two days. Temperatures will be quite cool Friday through
Sunday with high temperatures generally expected to be 10 to 15
degrees below normal. Expect a warmup to begin Monday into Tuesday
with temperatures near normal again by next Tuesday.
Aviation...dry westerly flow aloft will continue the VFR conditions
through tonight. With the approach of the next upper trough...southerly
winds will pick up tonight at kpih and kida. Hedges
Fire weather...an upper low approaching the Pacific northwest will turn the
upper flow to southwest by tonight. Breezy conditions can be
expected across the central mountains by late afternoon...along with
humidities in the middle to upper teens. As the upper low moves closer
on Wednesday...winds will increase in all areas by late afternoon.
The strongest will be over the central mountains where southwest
winds are expected to gust over 40 miles per hour at higher elevations. On a
more positive note...min humidities in the central mountains should
be in the upper teens to low 20s. The low humidities will be found
farther south where the winds are not as strong. Still only looking
for isolated thunderstorms in the far north Wednesday afternoon and
evening...with little rainfall. It looks breezy on Thursday...but
with cooler temperatures and higher humidity. There is also a better
chance for precipitation in the central mountains on Thursday. Hedges