Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
1001 PM MDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Update...snow levels this evening have inched lower in the south
Central Highlands area south of Burley...convection may have a
little hand here and surface observations indicate some middle 30
temperatures between 6000 and 7500 feet elevation. Spotter near
Malta reported light snow in the air. Precipitation in satellite
imagery looks to be growing weaker to the south and may only last
another 2 or 3 hours with no significant accumulation. Morning
temperatures in the eastern Magic Valley may be near or just above
freezing. Receiver station
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 134 PM MDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Short term...tonight through Saturday. The deep upper low over
the Pacific northwest will remain in place through Thursday night. By Friday
night...models have the upper low lifting NE into British Columbia. Precipitation is
expected to mainly fall over the central mountains and eastern
Highlands through Thursday night...with isolated showers still possible
in the Snake River Plain/eastern Magic Valley. SW winds aloft will
keep the southern part of the forecast area on the dry side due to the
downslope. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be most numerous during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Precipitation will be confined to the far
north Friday and Sat as the upper low lifts to the NE. Temperatures will
remain cool again on Thursday...but will moderate Friday and Sat as the
upper low loses influence. Temperatures Thursday and Friday morning may fall into
the middle 30s in the Snake River Plain/eastern Magic Valley. Hedges
Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday.
Overall although the GFS and European models differ quite a bit in
specific details both showing a somewhat unsettled pattern in the
long term. GFS drives through upper troughs Monday and Tuesday while
the European leans more toward Sunday and Wednesday. Expect
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily but with
timing differences still a lot of uncertainty on best periods. GFS
drier on Sunday while European driest on Monday. For now kept in
the chance daily of convective activity. High temperatures will be
right near seasonal normals with 70s in the valleys and 50s and 60s
in the mountains.
Gk
Aviation...15 to 20 knot sustained winds with gusts 20 to 30 knots
have persisted today at byi...pih and Ida and should continue into
early evening before dying out with strong gradient behind cold
front weakening. Winds at snake plain sites should be more in the
10 to 15 knot range on Thursday. Will have widespread VFR
conditions through Thursday with some showers mainly near sun and
over mountainous terrain.
Gk
&&
Pih watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
