Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
435 am EDT Sat may 25 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure in charge today. Warm front lift northeast through
area late Monday into early Tuesday. In its wake...increasing heat
and humidity Tuesday into Thursday.
&&
Near term /through tonight/...
A chilly morning on going...with below freezing temperatures in
northern WV mountains...and temperatures cool enough for frost in
parts of the lower terrain. Will let the current frost/freeze
headlines ride out. Although not likely to get cold enough for any
impacts in metropolitan areas like Charleston and Huntington...its tough to
say how temperatures are doing in the outlying hollows where no
measurements are available.
With surface high pressure in control through tonight...expecting
dry conditions through the near term period. With a couple ripples
in the northwest flow aloft...will see some clouds this
afternoon...with thicker clouds tonight across the SW quarter of the
County Warning Area. Farther NE...should be a fairly clear night...allowing for
another frost across the northern mountainous counties.
Mav/met continue to have some differences in temperatures today and
tonight. Blended in the consall guidance for highs and lows...which
is between the mav/met although closer to the warmer met.
&&
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/...
still feel uncertain/low confidence in the areal coverage...and thus
the pop...for the warm front for Memorial Day into Tuesday. The 00z
NAM and GFS still not very aggressive with showers. The European model (ecmwf) was
trending in that direction. At least our timing has not changed
much in the past 24 hours.
The Saturday night disturbance aloft should be exiting on Sunday
morning...keeping northern counties almost cloudless on Sunday.
High and middle clouds may start increasing again across the south late
in the day. For the 3rd night...did mention some frost overnight
Sunday night/dawn Monday for Randolph and Pocahontas counties.
Generally stayed higher than 00z MOS probability of precipitation from both the NAM and GFS
for Monday into Tuesday...but still mostly 30 and 40 percent with
the warm frontal action.
Thinking the front itself would still be in our County Warning Area at dawn
Tuesday...before lifting north Tuesday afternoon/evening. Still not
be best low level inflow for US...better to our west in the
Midwest. But do remnants of those complexes...still survive...as
they move east-southeast along the warm front.
Warm front passage will open the door to Summer conditions for
midweek. The current fresh air will be just a memory.
&&
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
another shortwave under northwest flow aloft passes across
southeast Ohio and WV Monday and Tuesday. At the same time...a warm
front lifts north into southern Ohio...across WV and Virginia oriented
west to east by 12z Tuesday. These two features will be capable to
produce showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday as the warm
front moves north of the area by early Wednesday. Increased probability of precipitation
to chance including thunder in weather grids accordingly.
High pressure takes control by early Wednesday providing dry
weather with a slow warming trend through the rest of the week.
Tweaked couple of degrees down from HPC guidance in the extended
periods.
&&
Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions expected across the forecast area through the taf
period. One exception is some MVFR ceilings currently in ekn...and
could also get some MVFR/IFR visibility there and ckb/pkb before the
sun comes up. Should return to VFR by 13z-14z. VFR cumulus field will
develop today...generally 6-9kft. Upper level disturbance brings
clouds to the south tonight...but again remaining VFR.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Sunday...
Forecast confidence...high.
Alternate scenarios: timing and density of fog may vary.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Sat 05/25/13
UTC 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1hrly 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h M h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 06z Sunday...
no widespread IFR expected.
&&
Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for wvz005>011-
013>020-026>032-039-040.
Freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for wvz035>038-046-
047.
Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am EDT Sunday for wvz046-047.
Ohio...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for ohz066-067-075-
076-083>087.
Kentucky...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for kyz101>103-105.
Virginia...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...ktb/mz
near term...mz
short term...ktb
long term...arj
aviation...mz
