Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
812 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Mesoscale discussion...
issued at 810 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Multiple outflow boundaries are pushing across the western
portions of the forecast area early this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms continue to develop on these boundaries...however the
intensity has really come down the last hour as instability is
weakening as the sun begins to set. Isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible for a few more hours across the western and
northwestern portions of the forecast area. Instability will
continue to weaken and this activity will dissipate completely by
10 PM if not sooner. No severe weather is expected with this
activity as the instability continues to weaken. Main risk with
any thunderstorm the reminder of this evening will be brief heavy
rainfall and occasional lightning strikes.
&&
Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 235 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
A weak surface dewpoint boundary or outflow boundary was currently
located across central Missouri near Highway 54 this afternoon.
This along with less than 30 knots of shear and about 1500-2000
j/kg cape has developed scattered convection along this boundary
and moving towards the south-southeast. An isolated strong to
severe storm could be possible but overall the convection should
stay sub severe with gusty winds and small hail along with
lightning the main hazards this afternoon through this evening.
The convection should decrease by early evening with the loss of
daytime heating. The convection may reach down to the Highway 60
corridor before dissipating. The rest of the night will be quiet
but will mention some patchy fog will be possible in river valleys
and near lake regions. Another weak disturbance will move over
the area tomorrow which may develop some isolated convection but
thinking most of the area will remain dry and warm.
Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 235 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
By late Wednesday night into Thursday...a stronger and more
pronounced wave will ride over the upper level ridge into the
Missouri Ozarks. This will bring a better chance for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Will not rule out a few stronger storms
possible with gusty winds and small hail on Thursday.
The upper level ridge will begin to expand and build across the
region the end of the week and weekend which should cut off the rain
chances. Can't rule out a stray isolated storm pop up over the
weekend but the main weather pattern will be hotter temperatures
and drier conditions. Highs will be in the lower 90s with heat
index values in the upper 90s. Ridge may flatten out a little bit
by early next week with temperatures near seasonable averages.
&&
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 620 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
For the ksgf...kjln and kbbg tafs...an outflow boundary is
currently pushing to the southwest across the area late this
afternoon. Northeasterly winds around 20kt can be expected briefly
along and behind this boundary. Scattered thunderstorms are also
occurring behind this boundary. This activity will diminish
quickly this evening as the sun sets and instability weakens.T his
activity may affect the Springfield and Branson areas before the
activity diminishes. Do not expect it will reach the Joplin area
this evening.
Light northeasterly to easterly winds will occur overnight and
skies will clear and some fog will likely develop early Wednesday
morning. May have to watch for scatted thunderstorms redeveloping
Wednesday afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance passes
through the region.
&&
Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&
$$
Mesoscale...wise
short term...Griffin
long term...Griffin
aviation...wise
