Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...update
National Weather Service San Diego California
1000 am PDT Friday Aug 28 2015
..update to mention the small chance of thunderstorms in the
high pressure aloft will continue hot weather through Saturday.
Residual monsoonal moisture is expected to bring some clouds to
the mountains this afternoon and might be sufficient for an isolated
thunderstorm or two. For Sunday through Thursday...a developing
trough of low pressure along the West Coast will bring a cooling
trend and a return and deepening of the marine layer with stronger
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Clears skies but for a patch of low clouds along the Baja California California
coast that snuck into Imperial Beach for a short time this morning.
The hot weather will peak today as strong high pressure aloft
continues over the southwest. Temperatures will be exceeding the
century mark for many inland areas...and exceeding 110 in the lower
deserts. A lot of 90s will be recorded as well not too far inland
from the 80s at the beaches. Cumulus clouds will develop over the
mountain crests today and a one or two of them could grow into a
thunderstorm. But they will not last long and clouds will clear
quickly...probably before sunset. Despite the clear skies...nights
will not cool that much particularly at the coast because of sea
surface temperatures rather high in the middle 70s. Some low clouds are
expected to develop tonight covering a small portion of coastal
areas. A trough of low pressure along the northwest U.S. Coast will
slowly sag southward this weekend and early next week. That will
bring temperatures back to normal by Monday and even dip below
normal for inland areas for much of the first week of September. It
will also bring back a sensible marine layer and more coastal clouds
nights and mornings.
281517z...coast/valleys...clear skies and unrestriced visible through
Sat morning...except along the immediate coast. After 08z...sct-bkn
marine stratus layer developing along the immediate coast...possibly
impacting ksan...kcrq..and ksna with ceilings/visible at or below 600 feet mean sea level and 3sm
visible in br. Confidence is moderate for some ceiling/visible development along
the coast...and low to moderate that LIFR/IFR conditions will impact
the coastal taf sites after 09z Sat.
Mountains/deserts...mostly clear with unrestricted visible through Sat
morning...except for a few cumulus with bases at or above 10k feet along the ridges
815 am...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...heat advisory from noon today to 6 PM PDT this evening for
Coachella Valley-Orange County inland areas-Riverside
County mountains-San Bernardino County mountains-San
Bernardino and Riverside County valleys-the inland Empire-
San Diego County coastal areas-San Diego County mountains-
San Diego County valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and foothills.