Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
415 am PDT Monday Oct 20 2014
through Tuesday...a trough of low pressure will move inland through
California maintaining near to slightly below average temperatures
with patchy night and morning coastal low clouds and fog. For
Wednesday through Saturday...high pressure aloft and weaker onshore
flow will bring warming. Another through of low pressure will move
inland through the west on Sunday bringing stronger onshore flow
with cooling and a return of night and morning coastal clouds and
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Short term (today through wednesday)...
a trough of low pressure will move inland through California through
Tuesday followed by high pressure to the south expanding slowly
northward. High temperatures today will be similar to Sunday...then
slightly cooler on Tuesday...then warming Wednesday to near to
around 5 degrees above average.
Satellite imagery shows greatest stratus coverage early this morning
over the inner coastal waters with patchier coverage extending
inland to the western valleys. A similar inland extent is expected
for tonight into Tuesday morning...though with a little greater
For Tuesday night into Wednesday...with high pressure aloft
strengthening from the south and lower level trending weakly
offshore...stratus coverage is expected to be patchier and not
extend as far inland.
Long term (thursday through sunday)...
high pressure aloft will bring continued warming into Thursday and
slower warming into Friday with Thursday and Friday the warmest
days. This would push high temperatures to 5 to 10 degrees above
average. The combination of the high pressure aloft and weak lower
level flow should result in little or no stratus for Thursday and
Friday. For later Saturday and Sunday...and trough of low pressure
will move inland through the west bringing stronger onshore flow.
This will bring about 5 degrees of cooling west of the mountains
Saturday with cooling to near average for most areas on Sunday. With
the stronger onshore flow...night and morning coastal low clouds and
fog will return.
200930z...low clouds will continue to gradually if randomly fill up
the coastal areas this morning. Bases will be around 1500 feet mean sea level
with tops up to 2500-3000 feet...and most visible will remain above 5sm.
Scatter out by 16-17z. Low clouds will develop relatively early this
evening with coastal airports going under a ceiling of 1500 feet mean sea level
after 00z. Otherwise...mostly clear skies with unrestricted visible will
prevail through tonight.
230 am...northwest winds will gust to around 20 knots in the outer
coastal waters near San Clemente Island this evening. A northwest
swell will arrive tonight and Tuesday and with wind waves produce
combined seas of 8 to 10 feet. Northwest swell will decrease
230 am...long period northwest swell will arrive at beaches tonight
and Tuesday. This will bring larger surf mainly to west facing
beaches and south of La Jolla. Stronger rip currents will also
materialize...and rip current danger will be greatest late Tuesday
morning during the transition from high tide to low tide. See
laxsrfsgx for details.
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.