Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1013 am MDT sun Mar 29 2015
Synopsis...a weak weather disturbance will move east into
southern Nevada this afternoon...then continue east across
northern Arizona late tonight through Monday. High pressure
aloft will return to the area by late Monday.
Discussion...the well-defined vorticity maximum currently over the
central sierras will continue on a slow east-southeast track into
southern Nevada later today...then across northern Arizona tonight
through Monday. High pressure aloft will follow for Monday night
through Tuesday...with a series of increasingly colder and
energetic middle-level disturbances for the middle and latter
portions of the week.
The old surface boundary that swept south through Utah yesterday
has stalled across extreme southern Utah. What little atmospheric
moisture that exists appears to have concentrated along and to
the north of this boundary this morning. Suspect that shallow
convection will develop in the higher terrain north of the surface
boundary early this afternoon. This convection should deepen a bit
as the vorticity maximum nears the area late this afternoon and
evening. Isolated showers...or even a thunderstorm or two...are
expected with this convective activity tied mainly to the higher
terrain. Isolated showers could persist through late tonight and
early Monday as the remnant of the vorticity maximum tracks east
across northern Arizona.
A progressive ridge axis will cross Utah Monday night/Tuesday...
followed by a series of increasingly cold and energetic Pacific
troughs midweek. The leading feature will affect mainly the
northern third of Utah Tuesday night/Wednesday with a second
stronger/deeper trough impacting the entire forecast area through
the end of the work week.
No updates planned for the current forecast package.
Aviation...southeast winds will prevail at the slc terminal through
about 17z then shift to northwest. There is a 20 percent chance of
southeast winds continuing until 18z. Winds will shift to southeast
at about 04z this evening. No other operational weather concerns.
For more information from National oceanic and atmospheric administration/S National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)
For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)