Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
345 am MDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Synopsis...monsoonal moisture across southern and central Utah
will slowly work its way northward through the weekend...and
remain in place areawide through early next week.
Discussion...an elongated middle level ridge extends from the
Southern Plains westward across the Desert Southwest early this
morning. Moisture rotating around this ridge position has spread
across southern and central Utah...where GOES derived precipitable
water values are at or above an inch...and dew points are running
in the 40s /low 50s in the lowest elevations of southern UT/.
Meanwhile a surface front remains draped across central
Utah...extending from roughly Dugway to price...with drier and
slightly cooler air in place to the north across northern Utah.
The aforementioned middle level ridge is forecast to amplify across
the region over the weekend...allowing moisture to slowly work its
way northward into northern Utah today through Sunday...remaining in
place into early next week. Locally heavy rain and flash flooding
will become an increasing concern across southern and central Utah
during this time. Along the northern edge of this moisture plume
convection will initially be high based and dry...but by late
Sunday into Monday deeper moisture should have spread across the
The ec and GFS continue to display subtle differences for the middle
to latter portion of the upcoming week which will have a
significant impact on how much moisture remains in place across
the area. As such confidence in thunderstorm coverage during the
extended period is fairly low...and have maintained going forecast
Aviation...VFR conditions are expected throughout the taf period at
the slc terminal with some scattered clouds. Southeast winds are
expected to shift to the northwest between 17z and 19z. There is a
30 percent chance that lake winds and drainage winds will battle at
times until 15z.
Fire weather...a Fire Weather Watch for dry lightning remains in
affect for zone 492 in west central Utah for today into this
evening. Will allow day shift to re-evaluate and coordinate with
partners. This threat could continue across zone 492 and possibly
portions of 478 on Sunday but the trend to a more wet regime may
void the need for said watch.
Ridge will remain well into next week with seasonal monsoon moisture
working farther north each day. As a result...deep moisture is
expected across all areas by Monday...allowing for a greater wetting
rain potential. Winds after today will trend lighter as flow aloft
decreases into early next week. Outside of localized areas...light
diurnally driven slope flows look to be the norm.
Utah...Fire Weather Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
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