Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
328 PM MDT Friday Oct 9 2015
Synopsis...high pressure aloft will remain over Utah through
Saturday. A weather disturbance moving east through the northern
rockies will nudge a dry cold front through the northern half of
Utah Sunday. High pressure aloft will strengthen across the Great
Basin during the early and middle portions of the upcoming week.
Short term (until 00z tuesday)...high pressure aloft which has
dominated the pattern of late will bring one more day of
exceptionally warm temperatures and dry conditions to the entire
forecast area. An upper level trough racing east across the
northern rockies Sunday will drag a dry cold front across mainly
the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Low-level cold
advection trailing the front will drive temperatures down closer
to seasonal norms behind the front Sunday/Monday. Areas south of
the front look to remain quite warm heading into early next week.
Long term (after 06z tuesday)...a broad ridge will prevail
across the region Tuesday into Thursday. A closed low spinning off
the California coast will eventually weaken and wander eastward
across southern cal by Friday. Depending on the strength of this
system once it reaches Southern California will determine the
probability of precipitation into Utah. Models have been weakening this
system and the ec is the Leader with this scenario and the model
of choice since it has been dominating the forecast the past
several weeks. Therefore have backed off on the timing of starting
any showers into southern Utah until Friday.
Temperatures will remain above normal through this period but have
opted to lower temperatures a couple degrees from MOS guidance as they
appear a little high considering this is October and getting a fully
mixed air mass is not likely.
Aviation...the slc terminal will see VFR conditions through the
evening with some high clouds. Light northerly winds are expected to
shift to the southeast between 02z and 04z.
Fire weather...stable high pressure across the region will
maintain warm/dry conditions across all fire districts Saturday.
A dry cold front will sweep through the northern half of Utah
Sunday. High pressure aloft will strengthen once again during the
early and middle portions of the upcoming week.
The main issue over the next several days will be smoke dispersal.
For Saturday increasing transport winds ahead of the dry cold
front will turning indices a bit higher during the late afternoon.
Sufficiently high transport winds behind the front Sunday will
overcome a stable air mass to maintain fairly high clearing
indices in Monday. Stable conditions and decreasing transport
winds will bring low clearing indices to all fire districts
Short term/fire weather...Conger
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