Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
429 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016
Synopsis...high pressure will prevail across the region through
much of next week.
Short term (through 00z wednesday)...a shortwave trough
traversing the northern rockies early this morning will remain
well north of the forecast area today...with the only discernible
impact being an increase in middle and high level clouds across the
north. Meanwhile a stable airmass remains in place across the
area. A few areas of stratus and fog prevail in central Utah as well
as in the Cache Valley and Wasatch back. Anticipate temperatures
today to be close to or slightly cooler than fridays values given
little change in temperatures aloft but a slight increase in cloud
Middle level ridging is forecast to become established across the
region beginning Sunday and persisting beyond the short term
period. Substantial warming aloft and light winds will allow for
strengthening valley inversions but sunny and warming temperatures
in the higher terrain. Have lowered many valley temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday...particularly the Uinta Basin...west deserts and
eastern valleys where snow cover prevails and temperatures have
remained below the freezing mark over the past couple of days.
Fog/stratus will also likely increase by early in the week which
would also limit daytime heating. Have included patchy
overnight/morning fog in most northern/central valleys away from
the Wasatch front.
Long term (after 00z wednesday)...long wave ridge axis will
position itself over the eastern Great Basin Wednesday. The ec shows
a weak disturbance trying to flatten this ridge a little on Thursday
but its temporary with the ridge rebounding Friday. The only impact
may be lower temperatures by a few degrees over the northern
mountains...otherwise status quo over rest of County Warning Area with valley
inversions. Toughest part of forecast are temperatures due to the
valley inversions. With snow cover in most valleys not likely to see
the warming that the MOS guidance is showing throughout next
week...especially across the eastern valleys. Temperatures only reached the
middle 20s there yesterday and really do not see what will cause
temperatures to rise into the 50s by next Thursday of Friday. Have
lower temperatures back into the 40s over the eastern valleys...except
lower 30s in the Uinta Basin. Feel this is a reasonable compromise
but could see the temperatures actually 10 degrees colder than
this...especially if the stratus doesn't breakup.
May see the breakdown of this ridge developing by next weekend.
Aviation...light southeast winds will likely shift to northwest at
20-21z but they could switch as early as 18-19z...albeit light. VFR
conditions should prevail but there is a 40 percent chance of
high end MVFR conditions...especially after 06z tonight.
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http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)
For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)