Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
926 PM MST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
Synopsis...a cold upper low will meander around the Great Basin
through the Thanksgiving weekend.
Discussion...the cold upper low is centered over the Great Basin
this evening with the associated cold front having shifted out of
the County Warning Area. The band of precipitation extends in an arc from northestern Utah across
the uintas...southwestern Wyoming and across northern Utah north of slc.
Drier air has punched into western Utah in the wake of the cold front
and has spread north into the central Wasatch front shutting down
most of the precipitation south of the main band except for a little
orographics over the southern mountains
The precipitation band is forecast to continue lifting northward out of the County Warning Area
into early Thursday but continues to wrap back into northwestern Utah through most
of the day.
A vorticity maximum in southern Nevada is forecast to rotate northeastward around the upper
low and bring a renewed threat of snow to southwestern Utah later tonight
lifting through central and northestern Utah tomorrow. Dont expect any large
amounts from this however.
Model output is becoming more favorable for a downslope wind event
along the Wasatch front starting tomorrow morning and peaking in
the early morning hours Friday. It does appear there is a
potential for warning level gusts across the more wind prone areas
of Davis County.
These easterlies will also shut down any lingering precipitation along
the Wasatch front but will create areas of blowing and drifting
snow where it did fall.
Cancelled Wind Advisory for southeastern Utah earlier as winds dropped off
behind the cold front. Current suite of winter weather highlights
is OK for now but will likely be canceling the advisory for the
southern Wasatch as precipitation has pretty much ended there.
Will update one more time for this and to lower probability of precipitation further in
the slc and Provo areas east into the mountains
Aviation...northerly winds are expected at the slc terminal
tonight into Thursday then become northeasterly as easterly canyon
winds develop by late morning. There is a chance winds become
light and variable after about 11z and could even switch to light
southwesterly as the canyon winds eddy around the airfield. VFR
ceilings are expected but should stay below 6000 feet above ground level through the
night. There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR ceilings/visibilities in light
snow until about 10-11z.
Utah...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Thursday for utz001-002-
Winter Storm Warning until noon MST Thursday for utz005.
Wyoming...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Thursday for wyz021.
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