Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
938 PM MDT Friday Aug 28 2015
Synopsis...high pressure will bring a warming and drying trend
through Saturday. A weak frontal boundary will cross the area
Saturday night...followed by a generally dry southwesterly flow
for much of next week.
Discussion...shortwave ridge axis has shifted to the Utah/Colorado
border this evening. A moderately dry airmass remains in place over
much of the forecast area...although higher precipitable waters are seen spreading
into the far western portions of Utah. A few showers managed to
develop today...but with very little in the way of instability left
especially with the loss of daytime heating...most of the showers
have already dissipated. Thus...expect a rather quiet night with
just some high clouds increasing from the west.
Southerly winds do start to increase tonight and strengthen more
tomorrow as a storm system makes its way into the Pacific northwest.
Increasing moisture will also allow for greater coverage of showers
tomorrow. This is in advance of a cold front that will push through
the area tomorrow night into Sunday.
Updated forecast to remove mentionable probability of precipitation for the rest of the
Aviation...southeast winds will remain in place at the slc terminal
through the valid taf period. The winds will increase late tonight
into Saturday morning...becoming gusty by Saturday afternoon.
Fire weather...high pressure will shift east overnight through
tomorrow allowing a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft to spread
across the area. A weak frontal boundary approaching from the
northwest coupled with the uptick in winds aloft will create breezy
southerly surface winds across the western valleys tomorrow
afternoon...and coupled with drying low levels will combine to
produce locally critical fire weather conditions across portions of
fire weather zones 478...492 and 495. This said fuels as reported
remain non-critical in those areas. As the frontal boundary
approaches northern Utah tomorrow afternoon/evening isolated to
widely scattered high based thunderstorms are expected to form and
linger into the overnight hours.
Deep southwesterly flow will remain in place through much of next
week allowing further drying across the district...and periodically
breezy conditions during the middle to late week period.
Wyoming...red flag warning for wyz277 from 11 am MDT Saturday until
9 PM MDT Sunday.
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http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)