Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
925 PM MDT Friday Aug 1 2014
Synopsis...high pressure aloft will strengthen across the
interior west over the first half of the upcoming weekend. A storm
system will bring a surge of monsoonal moisture
Sunday...persisting through early next week.
Discussion...high pressure beginning to build over the forecast
area this evening. Earlier shower and thunderstorm
activity...primarily confined to southern Utah...has rapidly
dissipated with the loss of daytime heating and is not expected to
redevelop overnight. Thus...updated earlier to remove mention of
evening probability of precipitation. No additional updates planned.
The ridge will continue to strengthen through the
tomorrow...allowing for a drying trend for tomorrow. Models
indicates precipitable waters will drop in the 0.5 to 0.6 inch range across much
of the forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. Still...enough
instability will linger for some isolated afternoon
convection...primarily over the higher terrain. The ridge will
also bring a slight warming trend to northern Utah...with maxes
expected to be near seasonal normals...with little change in
temperatures over the south.
Monsoonal moisture surge still on track beginning Sunday as a
broad wave moves into Utah and Nevada. Models increasingly showing
the strongest part of the wave remaining over Nevada...at least
initially...however precipitable waters in the 1.0 to 1.2 inch range should
provide plenty of moisture for convection to develop. Moisture
looks to stick around through Tuesday under the influence of the
wave before some indication of a drying trend for the middle of
Aviation...the slc terminal will see VFR conditions through the
night with scattered clouds. Light winds are expected to become
prevailing southeasterly by 05z.
Fire weather...high pressure aloft will remain across the region
into the day Saturday maintaining light winds...within lingering
moisture maintaining a threat for showers and thunderstorms mainly
over the higher terrain. A strong surge of monsoonal moisture will
spread north into southern Utah late Saturday though Sunday...then
northward across the remainder of the area Sunday night through
Monday. This surge of moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy rainfall. Moisture will linger through
much of next week maintaining cooler temperatures...higher humidity
and a threat for showers and thunderstorms.
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