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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
531 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014

..update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 305 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014

Cold front continues to sweep southeastward across the forecast
area, headed toward the i35 corridor this afternoon. Intermittent
rain showers and drizzle continue for much of the area, with a more
continuous band of light to moderate rain along and west of
Manhattan, likely associated with mid level frontogenesis and
deformation as the upper trof progresses eastward.

Expect this band to continue moving eastward and for gusty winds to
continue through the evening hours. Have progressed rain chances
through midnight and ended west to east by then. Temperatures in
the low levels continue to be warm enough in the precipitation area
to stay as rain, although back edge could see a brief mix as it
exits to the east. With winds staying up in the 10-15 mph range and
as secondary push of clouds with the main trof moving through,
expect well mixed overnight lows around 30 for our area. A slow
clearing and mixing up to about 850mb should bring highs back up
into the upper 30s NE to the lower 40s SW for Monday afternoon.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 305 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014

Mainly zonal flow leads to very low chances for precipitation
through next weekend, with temperatures being the primary
challenge.

Modest warm air advection Tuesday should lead to a slight
warm up from Monday. Clouds increase Tuesday night as a shortwave
quickly moves southeast mainly through the northern plains with a
slightly cooler Wednesday resulting, and further cooler Thursday as
high pressure builds in. Uncertainty in the specifics of the upper
pattern lead to a rather lower confidence forecast Friday into
the weekend. 0z ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the 12z GFS, are
slightly more cyclonic aloft, allowing Canadian air to surge in
for the weekend. The 12z European model (ecmwf) is more backed aloft into The
Rockies, pushing 850mb and surface temps into near record levels
for the end of November. 12z GFS ensembles showing similarly large
ranges, giving little direction. At this point have kept temps on
the cooler side.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 530 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014

For the 00z tafs, areas of light rain will continue to track
across the taf sites before exiting east of the area by mid
evening. Cigs/vis should steadily improve as dry air quickly moves
in behind the rain, with VFR conditions expected through the
remainder of the period. The tight pressure gradient in place over
the region should stay anchored over the region through tonight and
most of the day on Monday, resulting in gusty northwesterly winds of
20-25kts persisting through the period.



&&

Top watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...67
long term...65
aviation...hennecke

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