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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
320 am CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 313 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Shortwave is still forecast to track over SW Iowa this morning. Radar
returns have overspread the area although due to low level dry air
precipitation is struggling to reach the ground. A few stations in
NE have reported sprinkles, and expect that this will be the most
any locations receive. Closer to the shortwave is the best chance
for light rain and possibly snow especially in far northeast Kansas the
next few hours with no accumulations expected. A trailing cold front
is currently pushing through northeast KS, and is forecast to
continue southeastward the rest of this morning. There seems to be
weak large scale lift coinciding with the frontogenesis extending
westward into central Kansas. Given temps in the mid 40s sprinkles and
light rain showers will be possible as this quickly moves eastward.
Winds ahead of the front remain gusty with low level mixing still
present in the warm sector. Winds will shift to the northwest behind
the front, but will not increase until late morning. Given this
mixing and cloud cover some locations may not cool much below the
upper 30s by sunrise. There is not much cold advection in the wake
of the front allowing temperatures to reach the upper 30s to low
40s. Today wind gusts up to 30 mph will be common across most of the
area especially during the afternoon. Cloud cover will be tricky
today with mid level clouds extending back into SD, and low level
clouds forecast to clip northeast Kansas for a brief period. Tonight
high pressure builds in from the north causing the winds to go calm
and low temperatures in the upper 10s to low 20s.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 313 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Thursday (thanksgiving day), an amplified trough will be located
across the eastern conus with an upper level ridge across the
western conus. The mid to upper level flow across the northern and
Central Plains will be from the northwest. A surface ridge of high
pressure across eastern Kansas during the morning hours will shift into MO
by afternoon. Light surface winds in the morning will become
southeasterly through the afternoon and range from 5 to 10 miles per hour
across the eastern half of the County Warning Area to 10 to 15 miles per hour across the
western counties. After a cold start in the upper teens and lower
20s Thursday morning, high temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper 30s across northeast KS, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s across east central KS, and highs int he mid 40s across
north central Kansas. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies.

Thursday night through Saturday, the amplified upper level trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the western
Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow across the plains will
become zonal. A Lee surface trough across the High Plains will
deepen and cause surface winds across the southern and Central
Plains to become southerly. Low-level warm air advection will help highs to reach
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees on Friday. Saturday will continue
to be warm with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday night through Monday, an upper level trough will move east
across the northern plains. Strong low-level cold air advection across the northern
plains Saturday night will cause a cold front to push southward
across the County Warning Area early Sunday morning. The front will move through the
County Warning Area dry and the northwest edge of the deeper moisture will remain
south and southeast of the cwa, so there will be no rain chance
north of the front on Sunday afternoon across the southeast counties
of the County Warning Area. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to
upper 30s to lower 40s south. The southeast counties may have their
high temperatures in the mid 40s during the mid and late morning
hours of Sunday but temperatures should fall back into the upper 30s
during the afternoon hours. North winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour will make it
even feel colder, despite insolation.

Monday will remain cold as the surface ridge of high pressure moves
east across the County Warning Area. The winds will be light but highs will struggle
to reach the lower 30s across the northern counties of the County Warning Area with
mid to upper 30s elsewhere across the County Warning Area.

Tuesday, another 500 mb trough will move east across the northern
plains. This will bring a front southward across the County Warning Area during the
late afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the
upper 40s across the northern counties with lower to mid 50s across
the southern counties. If the front is a bit faster then afternoon
highs may have to be adjusted downward.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1128 PM CST Tuesday Nov 25 2014

A cold front will move through taf sites between 07z and 09z with
winds shifting out of west and light precipitation expected for 1
to 2 hours...probably rain but some chance for light snow/sleet.
Winds then turn out of the northwest shortly after sunrise with
gusts increasing to 25-30 kts at times. Also expect a period of
MVFR cigs from around 14z through late morning or early afternoon
when cloud bases gradually mix out or lift above 3000 feet.



&&

Top watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...Sanders
long term...gargan
aviation...barjenbruch

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