marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 205 PM PST sun Feb 1 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The 18z sfc analysis indicated a cold front about to mov into the WA/ore cstl wtrs while the trailing portion is entering the nrn CA wtrs. Hi pres covers central CA wtrs while a weak trof remains along CA CST. Meanwhile the next low pres area and fnt is W of pz5 wtrs nr 140w. Ascat-a pass FM nr 18z returned W to NW winds 15 to 20 kt ovr nrn pz5 area and light winds to the S. Cstl buoys and C/man stn desw1 are rptg S 23 to 26 kt with gusts as high as 32 kt in enhanced sly flow ahd of the fnt. To start fcst these wnds are close to 12z GFS 30m winds.
The 12z models continue to be in very good agreement during the short term period...from now thru Tue night. Winds stay below gale force with highest wnds 30 kt ahd of the next fnt in far NW waters tonight. Gale frc wnds appr in GFS 10m bl wnds this evening just W of pz5 wtrs ahd of front but with low pres movg NW of WA wtrs overnight the fnt wkns as it movs into ofshr wtrs. Front crosses pz5 area and enters nrn CA wtrs late Mon where it stalls Mon night into Tue. There is some ensemble sprt for a weak low forming and movg along the stalled fnt Mon night into Tue...as shown in 12z GFS. Fnt then begins to mov N as a warm fnt later Tue and Tue night as a strong low dvlps N of Hawaii and movs NE twd ofshr wtrs. Mdls appr to be coming closer together compared to the past few runs...although there continue to be sgfnt differences with several low pres systems expected to track NE and N and remain W of the offshore waters during the period. The initial strong low will pass W of the area Wed and Wed night. The 12z GFS/CMC/ECMWF are reasonably close...with UKMET faster. Then Thu and Thu night low turns back to NW and W with GFS/ECMWF a good compromise. Another low in a series of impulses in SW flow Alf dvlpg in E pac passes W of the area Thu into Thu night with cold front entering the ofshr wtrs as another low and trailing fnt follows close behind. This second low then movs NW of WA wtrs Fri into Fri night with its fntl system entering pz5 wtrs. 12z GFS apprs to be good compromise in this complex and chaotic pattern. The models all do indicate gales with the initial system Wed night...the second system Thu into Fri and the last low and fnt late Fri into Fri night altho weaker and mainly ovr nrn wtrs. Will populate grids using the 12z GFS 10m winds through the period with confdc on warnings in the low to MDT range...except low late Fri and Fri night.
.Seas...The 18z sea state analysis indicated that onbserved seas continue to be within a ft of the mww3 mld values. Since will be using the GFS through the period...will also populate wave grids using the mww3...except after 21z Thu transition to 50/50 blend of 12z mww3 with ECMWF wam then mdls dvlp some differences.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Wed night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Wed night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Wed night into Fri. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Wed night. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Wed night into Fri. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Wed night into Thu. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Wed night into Fri. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Wed night into Thu.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Wed night into Fri. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Wed night into Thu night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Thu into Fri. .Pzz925...Outer waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Thu into Fri. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Fri. .Pzz930...Outer waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Thu into Fri. .Pzz935...Outer waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale possible Fri.
.Forecaster Bancroft. Ocean prediction center.