marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 214 am PST Tue Feb 9 2016
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Low pres has intensified well W of the nrn CA wtrs alg an old stalled fnt and is movg NNW and pushing fnt to N back as a warm fnt and pushing traling cdfnt NE twd CA wtrs. 0450z ascat-b pass shows wnds starting to increase in outer wtrs FM Oregon wtrs swd but so far 20 kt or less...with lighter wnds in rdg ovr centrasl and srn CA wtrs. Pres grad strengthens ovr the WA/OR/nrn CA wtrs today as the low pres lifts nnwd...an effect of stg upr rdg to E over wrn U.S. And Canada. Will use the 00z GFS 10m winds which has winds to 25 kt ovr the nrn areas of the WA wtrs and ovr the outer wtrs further S into the or wtrs toward mrng or for Tue. By late Tue ngt into Wed the GFS shows a somewhat stronger cdfnt that apchs the pz5 area and nrn CA Tue ngt and enters the wtrs Wed....but 00z GFS is more in ln with 00z ECMWF/UKMET limiting winds to mostly 25 kt with upr rdg inland likely to slow and wkn the progress of the cd fnt into the wtrs. By Thu mdls differ on what looks like a somewhat stronger fnt entering the wtrs as upr rdg movs farther inland. 00z UKMET and CMC Gem are stronger with fnt showing gales in parts of pz5 area Thu while GFS and ECMWF are weaker with 20-25 kt. Will use a 50/50 blend of 00z UKMET/GFS for Thu into Thu night with fnt expected to wkn by Thu night. Then...will go with 00z GFS 10m winds for remainder of fcst with mdl agrmt improved. GFS and ECMWF do agree somewhat better with low pres nearing the NW WA wtrs late Fri while UKMET and CMC are not in phase with these mdls. Wl use the GFS during this time pd which is persistent and similar to ECMWF. Another cd fnt pushes E into the nrn offshr wtrs Sat and Sat night...lkly in the form of a warm front. The GFS and other global mdls are smlr with strength of winds inadvof fnt at that time.
Seas...wl use a 50/50 blend of multigrid wwiii and ECMWF wam thru the fcst period pd with mdls otrw WI 1-2 ft of each other and initialized close to current obs...but cont to be several ft too low in nrn glf of AK impacted more by low pres.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Bancroft. Ocean prediction center.