marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 131 PM PST Sat Dec 20 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Stg cd fnt was movg E into the WA/OR wtrs this aftn. There was an high resolution ascat pass FM 18z with a swath alg and W of the 125w which showed gales nr the or coast. Otw winds were to 25 kt ovr the WA wtrs and to 30 kt ovr the or into the nrn CA wtrs. Buoy obs elevated at 16 ft alg the or and wrn areas of the WA/OR wtrs had 25 kt whiles gusts were nr or abv 34 kt in the past svrl...but seas were to 19 ft in these areas. Plan to kp gales for the nrn areas of the WA wtrs tngt...then dmnsh later tngt and sun. By sun aftn rdg starts expanding nwd ovr the WA/OR wtrs with winds dmnshg ovr the nrn offshr wtrs and strengthening acrs the cntrl and srn areas of the CA wtrs while coastal trof dvlps. ECMWF/UKMET are stgr with the epac high pres late Mon mrng into the aftn with GFS somewhat wkr. On Mon into Tue there are still two slns. The GFS and UKMET consolidate energy and strengthen low pres movg NE...nr or to the N of the Queen Charlotte islds. The ECMWF/Gem do not consolidate the upr energy and hav seperate low pres cntrs movg NE towards the Queen Charlotte islds and glf of AK. Wl favor the GFS/UKMET and hav winds to 30 kt. Confdc is not high with this sys. FM early Wed into Thu GFS/ECMWF are showing a cd fnt movg se ovr the wtrs with high pres building in FM the Wed ngt thru Thu ngt. Wl hav Max winds to 30 kt as coastal trof redvlps alg the CA coast late Wed into Thu.
Seas...the 12z ww3 mdl is closer to the obs seas while ECMWF briefly initially is in agrmt with data. Plan to favor wwiii thru early Mon...then use a blend of the wwiii and ECMWF using a 60/40 blend Mon thru Thu ngt.
Grids...12z 30m GFS winds wl be used FM tngt thru sun...then wl use 10m GFS wnds for later in the fcst pd.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...Na.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale today into tonight. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale today into tonight.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Rowland. Ocean prediction center.