Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 203 PM PDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

A cd fnt xtnds FM nr the or coast into the nrn CA wtrs early this aftn. Winds inadvof fnt ovr the or wtrs at buoy 46015 were at 32 kt and gusting to 41 kt as of 20z. The fnt wl cont to slowly mov se acrs the nrn CA wtrs tngt with winds to 30 kt inadvof fnt ovr the offshr wtrs diminishing to 25 kt later tngt...before crossing into the cntrl CA wtrs Thu. Mdls smlr with slowly weakening the fnt later tngt. Elsw ovr the glf of AK this aftn a closed upr low wl slowly mov swd tngt and Thu as a shrtwv energy rotates swd arnd the wrn areas of the closed low. Complicated pattern evolves with mdls dvlpg multiple low cntrs with a dvlpg low movg NE into the nrn CA wtrs late Fri aftn/early Fri evening. The GFS/ECMWF are smlr with the track and timing of the low init...altho by Sat GFS/UKMET are quicker movg the low to the NE towards the coast. Prefer the slower track FM the ECMWF and Gem. The diffs is not sig...but wl favor the ECMWF and use its guid for the updated grids this aftn. Aft the low pres movs inland late Sat ngt...high pres briefly builds in FM the W sun before next low pres sys approaches FM the W the WA/OR wtrs. Attm prefer the UKMET/ECMWF which tracks low pres to the W of the wtrs and brings sly gales inadvof fnt into the wtrs . The GFS tracks a stg low into the or wtrs...but this does agree with any other guid...so wl stay with nrn track of other guid.

Seas...12z enp ww3 and 12z ECMWF WV guid init rsnbly well and plan to blend 50/50 thru 12z Fri...then wl favor the ECMWF WV guid for the rmndr of the fcst pd.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...Na

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Fri night into Sat night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Fri night into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Fri night. Storm possible Sat. Gale possible Sat night. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Fri night. Storm possible Sat. Gale possible Sat night. Gale possible Mon night. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Fri night into Sat night. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... storm possible Fri night into Sat. Gale possible Sat night. Gale possible Mon night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Fri night into Sat. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Fri night. Storm possible Sat.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Fri night into Sat. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Fri. Gale possible Fri night into Sat. .Pzz925...Outer waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale Fri. Gale possible Fri night. .Pzz930...Outer waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Fri night.

$$

.Forecaster Rowland. Ocean prediction center.

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