marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 650 am PDT Sat Sep 20 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
No major changes are planned for the morning update. 12z sfc analysis indicates high pres ridge extending across the WA and or offshore waters with low pres along the N CA coast...with cold front to the W of the area. The 06z GFS is consistent with the past few runs moving this front slowly E the next few days as ridge weakens. Then looking ahead to next Tue/Wed models still similar with strong low fcst to approach WA/OR waters. The strongest winds will likely be Wed...although the GFS/ECMWF and CMC all indicate a brief period of gales Tue. For now will leave warnings as is. The 12z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas were within a ft of the mww3 fcst values over most of the area. The exception was along the WA coastal waters where several buoys were about 2 to 3 ft higher than the guidance. For the offshore waters...not planning any changes attm.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
Altimeter passes from 02 and 05z indicates sea hgts 5-7 ft across waters S of pt Reyes. Further N...buoy obs are showing wave hgts to 10 ft...which matches well with current fcst grids. Scat pass from 04z indicates a small swath of 30 kt winds along SW or CST in the cstal waters. A ridge axis is also shown across NW pz5 waters. The global models are in pretty good agreement over the next 5 days...with the GFS/ECMWF in remarkably good agreement at 120 hrs with the strength and placement of a strong area of low pres W of the offshore waters. Will use the GFS 10m winds when pop the grids...with some minor edits inadv of frontal bndry to increase area of 30 kt winds. Given the stable conditions and srly flow over cool waters the 10m winds should be mostly sufficient across the region. This will push back the onset of gales across the pz5 waters to Wed. Expect the stronger winds and seas to occur Wed into Thu as the main area of low pres nears the pz5 waters. The enp wave hgt fcst looks pretty reasonable also and will be my model of choice when pop the grids for the next pkg.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz900...outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Wed into Wed night. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Wed. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Wed. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Wed.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster kosier/Shaw. Ocean prediction center.