marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 702 PM PDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Do not expect any sig changes to the fcst attm.
Low pres nr 48n128w with trof extending swrd across the pz5 and nrn pz6 waters. Ascat pass from this afternoon showing area of 30 kt winds on backside of the trof...with global models still indicating this area of winds will move se into the offshr waters overnight into Sat.
Seas...enp version of wwiii within a ft or two of current obs. Buoy 46002 rptng 12 ft last hour. Area of highest seas expected to move into the nrn and cntrl pz6 waters overnight into Sat...while slowly subsiding.
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The 18z sfc analysis indicated a cold front extending across the far se central CA waters into the NW portion of the S CA offshore waters. Low pres was over the WA waters with trof extending S. An ascat pass from 1750z with decent coverage over the offshore and coastal waters indicated winds mostly 20 kt or less with the exception of the far SW central CA waters which had a small area of 20 to 25 kt.
The 12z models are in decent agreement through most of the fcst period...though by about 12z Wed the model agreement GOES downhill quickly. During the period from tonight through 12z Wed...the models all remain in agreement moving the cold front across the S CA waters overnight...then se of the area Sat. The low over the WA waters will move slowly E...then dissipate Sat. The next system to affect the area is still on track for later Sun night into Mon. There are some differences with the track of the low with the GFS being a bit further E than the ECMWF/UKMET...however the net effect on the offshore waters is minimal. The cold front will then stall over the srn pz5 waters Tue before lifting back N as a warm front later Tue night and Wed. Looking ahead to Wed and Wed night...the 12z ECMWF looks to be an outlier compared to the GFS/CMC/UKMET in moving strong low across the WA/OR waters Wed night. The GFS/UKMET/CMC keep low W of the offshore waters...and also indicate lighter winds. Will go closer to UKMET for 12z Wed and Wed night with winds remaining below gale. In summary...will populate grids using the GFS 30m winds through 12z sun...then will use 10m winds 12z sun through 12z Wed. Will then use 12z UKMET for 12z Wed through Thu.
.Seas...The 18z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas were within a ft of the mww3 fcst values. Will go with the mww3 through the fcst period...however will make edits starting 12z Wed to decrease the seas to match up with the UKMET winds.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster achorn/kosier. Ocean prediction center.