HS 102

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1158 am PST sun 8 Nov 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

06z GFS had a rdg extndg over The Wash ofshr wtrs on Wed...while the 06z gefs mean/00z Gem/00z UKMET solns had a low movg across these wtrs on Wed. 06z GFS dvlpd a low over the calif cntrl CST Fri mrng...while the other Med rng mdls hv rdg bldg over this area.

12z GFS is in gud agreement with the 12z ECMWF and 12z gefs mean thru the entire fcst prd. 12z UKMET is faster than the 12z GFS on Fri...but othw looks fairly close to the GFS. 12z Gem looks too stg with a low movg se across The Wash/ore/nocal ofshr wtrs during the Wed into Thu timeframe...and is much faster than the ECMWF or GFS on Fri...so 12z Gem is considered to be an outlyer soln attm.

12z/00z GFS solns look reasonable over the ofshr areas thru the fcst prd...and is in better agreemnt with the consensus of the Med rng mdls than the 06z GFS...so will be using the 12z GFS for the ofshr wtrs fcsts.

12z GFS is backing away from gales on Wed over The Wash/ore wtrs...but the 12z UKMET still supports this...so will leave the gales up as low cnfdc for Wed for the time being. 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS are agreed that The Wash ofshr area will get gales on late Fri...so will be adding this to the warning summary.

Seas...12z wavewatch iii mdl sea hts look reasonable thru the fcst prd...and will be closely followed. Large NW swell is expctd to affect the ofshr wtrs today...then again Wed into Thu.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale tonight and Mon...MDT to high confdc. Gale Wed...low cnfdc. Gale Fri...MDT cnfdc. .Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale tonight and Mon...MDT to high confdc. Gale Wed...low cnfdc.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...none. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...None. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean forecast branch.