marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 734 am PST Sat Mar 8 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
A stg cd fnt was alg or just W of the WA/OR and CA offshr areas. Mdl guid movs the fnt ewd tdy and movs towards the coast later this aftn and tngt with weakening by later tngt and sun. GFS/UKMET/Gem/ECMWF are supporting gales inadvof the fnt tdy into early tngt. Confdc is MDT for gales into early tngt. On sun mdls are showing a sfc trof movg ewd ovr the WA/OR/nrn CA wtrs with stgst winds to 20 kt W of the trof where high pres builds in FM the W sun and sun ngt.
Seas...multigrid wwiii and ECMWF WV are in close agrmt thru the short term thru abt Mon.
With the updated fcst this mrng few changes wl be made to prev fcst which looks rsnbl.
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0440z hi res ascat returned gales N and W of Vancouver Island and Max winds of 30 kt over WA offshr waters. 00z half deg GFS and 00z quarter deg ECMWF were well intialized with channeling taking place near Vancouver Island as front approaches. Elsewhere 00z GFS bndry layer winds were most representative with the 25 kt winds from just S of Monterey Bay to W of Channel Islands as seen in hi res ascat. 00z mdls are in above avg agreement over the E Pacific throughout the forecast period. With moderate forecast confidence will continue with marginal gales ahead of cold front over tda into tngt over offshr waters roughly N of Cape Mendocino...consistent with previous offshr forecasts. As front approaches WA/OR coast this afternoon winds ahead of front shud further increase...with both 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS indicating limited areas of gales over ern offshr and coastal zones. Front shud rapidly weaken as it moves se thru pz6 waters tngt thru sun ngt. Another weak cold front or low pres trof shud move thru pz5 and nrn pz6 waters sun ngt into Mon. Mdls in good agreement that high pres will build E toward nrn CA and establish a ridge across pz5 waters Mon...and that NW winds shud increase to around 25 kt sun ngt.
As coastal trof dvlps alng CA 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF/UKMET all indicate increasing N winds to 25 or 30 kt Mon and Tue...and upper ridge continues to amplify near coast. 00z mdls indicate front shud then approach pz5 waters late Tue...and are in agreement that upper support will shear and front will dsipt over waters Wed. Per mdl consensus will limit pre frontal winds to 20 kt and only over NW part of WA waters Tue. 00z GFS timing of front appears OK. Another upper ridge shud set up just off the pac NW and Canadian coasts later Wed and allow for generally light winds offshr Wed.
.Seas...00z multigrid wavewatch iii has generally been within a ft or so of E Pacific ship/buoy obs over past several hrs. 00z mww3 and 00z ECMWF wave mdl are in good agreement with sig WV hgts thru Mon...and are also mostly consistent with the timing of swell arriving over offshr waters Tue.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance... N/A.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz081...Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout... gale today. .Pzz082...Cape Lookout to Pt St George... gale today into sun.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz083...Pt St George to pt Arena... gale today.
.Forecaster Rowland/Clark. Ocean prediction center.
There are no current maps for this region.
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NOT FOR NAVIGATION. DO NOT RELY ON THIS DATA FOR DECISIONS THAT CAN RESULT IN HARM TO ANYONE OR ANYTHING.