marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 129 PM PDT sun Oct 4 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
12z global models in good agreement thru most the forecast period...with some minor differences noted in the extended time period. Will populate wind grids with 10m winds from the 12z GFS thru the forecast period.
Low pres over central California expected to weaken as it drifts N along the nrn California and srn Oregon coasts tonight into Mon...then over the se portion of the Washington waters Mon night. Latest obs showing winds in the 15 to 25 kt range over portions of the California and srn Oregon waters. Expecting conditions to improve tonight and Mon as the low weakens.
High pres ridge then rebuilds over the waters Tue and Tue night...then settles across the central California waters Wed thru Thu. Meanwhile...a weakening cold front approaches the nrn waters Wed and Wed night. Front moves into the nrn waters Thu into Thu night...with GFS dissipating the front while both the ECMWF and the UKMET keep front a bit longer. Climo usually favors a stronger ridge...so will go with GFS solution. Another front approaches nrn waters Fri and Fri night. GFS continues with a stronger ridge...and in fact builds it a bit further to the NW than both the ECMWF and the UKMET. Again...will favor a stronger ridge solution and thus will follow GFS. Models try and bring a few gale spots into the waters ahead of the cold front over the NW waters Fri and Fri night. Will limit winds to 30 kt for now.
.Seas...Enp version of wwiii a bit underdone over the central California waters with buoy 46028 reporting 12 ft at 18z...and a ship over the nwrn central California waters reporting 13 ft. Populated first 12 hours of the fcst with the higher 12z ECMWF wave...then used 12z enp through the remainder of the fcst period.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster achorn. Ocean prediction center.