marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 712 am PDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
No major changes are planned for the morning update. The 06z GFS was very close to the 00z GFS...as well as the 00z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC during the short term period. Satellite imagery indicating impressive system continuing to wrap up near 38n135w. The current warning headlines look reasonable...though still concerned winds could reach storm force...mainly in the caa in W quadrant of low as it continues to deepen while tracking NE across N CA/S or waters. A brief break is still expected Sat night into Sun night...with next strong low affecting the WA/OR waters as early early Mon morning. The models have come into better agreement with this next low compared to yesterday...especially the GFS/ECMWF. Will also not make any changes to warnings with this system. The 12z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas were within a ft of the mww3 fcst values.
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the IR Sat img show most of the conv clds ovr the cntrl region very little lghtng. The radar indct few tstms activity ovr the ern parts of the cntrl region. At 06z inland low pres ovr oreg has a cld frnt strechng SW acrs the cntrl region into another low pres W of the srn wtrs. Another low pres 996 mb is cntrd 420 nm NW of the region. Hgh pres 1032 mb is cntrd due N of the hawiaan islands and xtnds an elongated ridge into the srn wtrs. The pres grdnt is very weak ovr the region and the obs winds are only reaching 20 kt. The last ascat pass at 0522z had no winds above 25 kt ovr the region. The glbl mdls are still in gud agrmnt and so no need to deviate from the previous forecast and will continue with GFS. In the short term low pres W of the region will intensfy as it approaches the wtrs and that will force a tight pres grdnt ovr most of the cntrl and nrn wtrs and winds will be elevated to gale force. Hgh pres will build in behind the frnt and allow gale force winds to diminish in the xtndd prd.
.Seas...The seas range btwn 8 and 10 ft with 12 ft seas ovr the ern parts of the cntrl wtrs. The last Jason pass at 0452z and 0650z missed the nrn and cntrl regions and had indc hghr seas to the N of the region. The nww3 multigrid fits well with the obs and has been quite consstnt and so will stay with it. The seas will start to build ovr the cntrl region to 20 ft by late Sat.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Mon into Tue. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Mon into Tue. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale tonight. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Mon into Tue. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale tonight into Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale today into Sat. Gale possible Mon night. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale tonight into Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale today into Sat. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale today into Sat. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale tonight into Sat. .Pzz925...Outer waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale today into Sat. .Pzz930...Outer waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale tonight.
.Forecaster kosier/musonda. Ocean prediction center.