marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1203 PM PST Thu Dec 12 2013
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
GOES vis imgry shows cd cu ovr the far NW ptn...in the caa behind a cdfnt movg thru the pz5 wtrs attm. Crnt sfc rprts indc gales N of the ofshr wtrs alng the coast of vancvr Isle in the channeling flow btwn the cdfnt and the coast. Sfc rprts ovr the ofshr wtrs indc W to SW wnds up to 20 kt ovr the N ptn...and N to NW 5 to 10 kt ovr the S ptn on the E side of a sfc high pres ctr. The 12z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET are all init OK on the crnt pttn when compared with the data...and all agree in the short term on the wkng of the fnt ovr the area. Only abt 20 kt in the ofshr zones. Prev fcst had gales ovr the
The 12z glbl mdls agree well into Mon...and all indc a cdfnt wl pass thru the N ptn of the ofshr wtrs Sat. The mdls also show an incrsg pres grad btwn the fnt and a sfc rdg to the se...and incrs the wnds as a result. There also wl be enhancements FM channeling flow btwn the fnt and the coast...as well as some mxg assoc with a wk llj with wnds up to 50 kt at 925 mb for a bf pd btwn 12z and 18z Sat...acrdg to the GFS/ECMWF...which are in gud agrmt on this feature with the rest of the guid. The 12z GFS/ECMWF also show the rgt entrance rgn of an h2 jet strk setting up ovr the was wtrs by 18z Sat...and an h5 shrtwv adding a bit of mid lvl frcg to the enhancements...which the 12z mdls agree upon fairly well. Also...12z GFS/NAM/ECMWF sndgs indc mrgnl gales in the mixed layer wnds. However...still a ltl hesistant to put the wrng in the fcst attm...as the ll stable layer may be too much to overcome for gales to mix all the way dn to the sfc...esp with the fairly stable mdl lapse rates. As a result...confdc with the gales is crntly low to MDT...so wl keep out them of the next pkg. Otrw wl favor the 12z GFS 0-30m bl wnds in the short term.
In the extended...diffs still showing up in 12z mdl solns with a low movg thru the ofshr wtrs on Mon. The 12z ECMWF/Gem solns have trended slower...and the GFS has trended a ltl faster. Still a considerable amt of uncertainty with the speed of this sys...but the zonal flow tends to favor the faster ECMWF/Gem...and the UKMET is not too far off as well. As a result...preferring the ECMWF FM abt 12z Mon Onward...but only with low to MDT confdc as there is still a considerable amt of variability in most solns. Are fastest with the low thru the epac. Upr pttn is zonal and fvbl for faster flow...but GFS/UKMET solns slower than the ECMWF/Gem. Attm uncertainty is high the speed of the low thru the epac due to mdl sprd...so wl stay nr speed of prev fcst...and reevaluate with the 12z cycle.
Seas...12z mww3 ecwmf wam mdls init a ft or two low invof gales nr vancvr Isle...but otrw OK for the rmndr of the epac...altho seas are fairly lgt se of the aforementioned rgn with gales. The wave mdls agree well into Mon...then begin to dvrg acrdgly with their respective wx mdls. Attm plan on flwg the 12z mww3 mdl into Mon...then switch to the ECMWF wam FM Mon on.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...none. .Cape Lookout to Pt St George...None.
.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...none. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...None. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None. $$
.Forecaster Kells. Ocean prediction center.
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