marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 652 PM PST sun Mar 1 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Attm I dont plan on making many changes to the upcoming grids or associated text fcst...although will use 30m GFS to pop wind grids as a more representative output than 10m GFS. Will trim any mention of gales from associated grids and keep them under gale threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------- previous discussion...
The 18z sfc analysis indicated high pres centered near 46n146w with ridge axis extending S. Cold front was over the far se portion of the S CA offshore waters with weakening trough along the CA coast. An ascat pass from 1746z with limited coverage over the offshore and coastal waters indicated an area of 25 to 30 kt winds over the N CA waters extending SW to the central CA waters.
The 12z models continue to be in very good agreement through the fcst period. The high pres ridge currently along 140w will remain in place through Tue night...then slow shift E as low pres passes well W of the area between 140w and 150w Wed into early Fri. The trough along the coast will briefly strengthen Mon into Mon night as short wave moves S along the coast. The trough will then weaken Tue through Fri which will also lead to the N winds diminishing over the N/central CA waters. The GFS 30m winds still continue to indicate winds briefly reaching minimal gale Mon morning over the N/central CA waters...however all the other models keep winds just below gale so plan on using the GFS 10m winds throughout. This will result in no warning headlines.
.Seas...The 18z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas continue to match up well with the mww3/ECMWF wam fcst values. It still looks like a 50/50 blend of mww3/ECMWF looks best...especially early in the period as ECMWF looks a little too high with seas over the N/central CA waters while the mww3 appears to be too low. From about 00z Wed and beyond there is not much difference in seas between the two models.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Shaw/kosier. Ocean prediction center.