The Flood Warning continues for the Ellicott creek near Williamsville * from late tonight to late Tuesday night. * At 11 am Sunday the stage was 2.7 feet and steady. * Flood stage is 8.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late tonight and crest near 9.5 feet Monday morning. * Impact...at 10.0 feet...moderate flood, extensive flooding in Ellicott Creek Park and minor flooding in surrounding neighborhoods in Tonawanda. Ub bike path flooded and closed. Aero drive, Holtz to transit roads in Cheektowaga closed. Flooding around Bowmansville fire Hall. Areas east of North Forest from Maple to French roads subject to sewer backups.
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907 am EST sun Nov 23 2014
...The Flood Warning remains in effect until 415 PM EST Monday for Erie...northern Chautauqua...Wyoming...southern Genesee and northwestern Cattaraugus counties...
Temperatures have steadily risen overnight with most readings in the lower to mid 40s this morning. Temperatures will continue to climb today reaching around 50 degrees this afternoon...before reaching near 60 degrees on Monday.
While rainfall will generally be a third inch or less through tonight...snowmelt is well underway and will continue through Monday. It is this snowmelt that will ultimately cause the flooding concerns...with the greatest amount of snowmelt occurring tonight and Monday.
Core samples of the deep snowpack at the start of the weekend indicated that as much as 5 to 6 inches of water was locked in place...but as temperatures continue to climb...this water will be released...and in some cases fairly rapidly.
Since many storm drains are snow clogged...many urban areas will likely be the first to experience flooding with several feet of water possibly accumulating on some stretches of Road. Residential basements will start to flood during this time as well.
The threat for structural failure will increase through Monday.
Area tributaries...particularly Buffalo Creek...Cazenovia creek... Cayuga creek and Ellicott creek...will take a bit longer to experience significant rises with the potential to reach at least minor flood stage later tonight and Monday.
In addition...very strong winds are expected to develop Monday and Monday night. These winds could bring down some trees and power lines resulting in scattered power outages. This will cause sump pumps to fail.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or has been reported. Stream rises will be slow and flash flooding is not expected. However...all interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams...and ponding of water in urban areas... highways...streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots.
Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Move to higher ground.
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