Major Lake Effect Snow Outbreak!!!
Afternoon Thoughts...
Well this is going to be quite a lake effect snow outbreak for many areas across Pennsylvania. Also as of 100pm the cold front is headed into the Susquehanna Valley. As the front moves through it will get windy with falling temperatures and some areas may even see a snow squall associated with it.
Warnings...
Winter Storm Warning...
Northwest Mountains
Erie Coastal Plain
Laural Highlands
Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory...
Western Mountains
Pittsburgh Metro Area
Lake Effect Snow Analysis...
Well what an outbreak I think is going to happen. For one thing Lake Erie is still relatively mild for this time of year with little ice coverage. Another point is we are going to get hit with the coldest air so far this season. Also the air is not that dry so squalls will be able to develop. Another point is that the lake effect will be enhanced by the clipper and a few minor disturbances moving through the region. It appears the worst of the snow will be during the day on Wednesday. Also temperatures will be well below freezing across the entire state of Pennsylvania. So even light snow will stick to the ground. Winds will be out of the northwest and gust to up to 30mph at times tonight and tomorrow. This we draw lake effect snow to even areas east of the mountains. I would not be surprised to see lake effect snow showers all the way to Philadelphia. Now lets talk accumulations... Well I would say the worst of the snow will be in the laural highlands, northwest mountains, and erie coastal plain. Some of the higher elevations in those regions may see over a foot of snow by Thursday morning. Elevations at or above 2000ft could see accumulations of 10-16inches in localized areas. This will be great for the ski resorts such as Blue Knob. Also watch out for accumulations around 6inches for the valleys of those tall mountains. Towns such as Indiana, Latrobe, Johnstown, Bradford, Erie, and Somerset will probably see accumulations of 6-8inches. Although some of those places may see more. Now for areas near Du Bois in the westcentral mountains may see advisory level accumulations of around 3-6inches. Though I think maybe even more than that is possible. For areas near State College and Williamsport, they will even probably see 2-3inches of snow too. The lake effect snow will be widespread with it mostly being large plums of snow and cellular. In the large plums there could be imbeded heavy banding. In this banding is where accumulations will be heaviest with snow rates near 2-3inches per hour. Pittsburgh will also probably see 2-4inches of snow too. Now for areas just east of the mountains such as Harrisburg. They too may see a coating to 2inches of snow if the banding sets up. For southern areas such as York and Lancaster it appears they will only see a coating of snow. And Philadelphia just flurries. Also some Huron-Erie streamers could form and they could cause the classic rt22 lake effect snow band. So for areas from Philipsburg to State College to Lewistown to Harrisburg. This will be something to watch. For northeastern areas such as near Scranton and the poconos accumulations will be around 1-3inches and this will be from lake effect snow from Lake Ontario. The lake effect snow will wrap up by Thursday Morning. So if you must travel tomorrow across Pennsylvania take it easy because visibilities could go down to zero if you get caught in a squall. Be careful traveling on the PA turnpike and I-80 especially.
I will have updates on the lake effect snow throughout the outbreak in which I will highlight where the banding sets up and who will see the highest snow amounts.
Radar...
Update as of 730pm...
Well as of now the lake effect snow is not too widespread just quite yet across the state. Though snow reports of over 3inches have already come in across Warren County. Right now it appears the heaviest bandings is near Clarion and Du Bois. Also north of Pittsburgh is a intense band stretching into Indiana, Pennsylvania. As of now the flow has been westerly, but as the night goes on the flow will change to northwestnorth. Then we will see the radar light up across the state. I probably will have another update early tomorrow morning. For now have a great evening!
Update as of 630am...
Well the flow has yet to turn northwesterly. It appears things are calming down. But we may see things light up later today. I have seen snow reports of over 8inches come in already. The front has moved through and it had now squall line like the models predicted. Have a great day!
Have a Happy New Year!
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Updated: 11:26 AM GMT on January 02, 2008
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Thursday full update on coastal storm...
Thoughts on January 14th storm...
Radar...
Warnings...
This is my current rain/snow line...
Storm impacts...
Preliminary Snow Map...
"Subject to Change"
Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD-
Baltimore, MD-
Washington, DC-
Wilmington, DE-
Dover, DE-
Cape May, NJ-
Trenton, NJ-
New York City, NY-
Poughkeepsie, NY-
Binghamton, NY-
Albany, NY-
Hartford, CT-
Concord, NH-
Providence, RI-
Worcester, MA-
Boston, MA-
Nantucket, MA-
Portland, ME-
Bangor, ME-
"Subject to Change"
Model Analysis
Here is the 12z GFS...
Here is the 12z GFS precipitation amounts...
Here is the 12z NAM...
After the storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon.
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Updated: 8:45 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
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830update on lake effect snow possible outbreak
"Afternoon thoughts"
Well good afternoon! Today is another nasty day around the state of Pennsylvania. In the north a few snow showers moved through causing a coating of snow in some spots. In the south is has been only a few rain showers and drizzle. Well this upcoming weekend looks interesting weatherwise. Friday nights a large storm will bring heavy rain across the whole state. Many areas may see over one inch of rain. Then Sunday a possible other storm may affect the southern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania with some snow. This storm though is still not yet in agreement with the computer models. Then arctic air moves in for next week, with maybe a surprise coastal storm with all snow?
"Short Term"
Currently at 1200pm here north of Harrisburg it is 38degrees with clouds and fog. Across the state there are a few rain showers with snow above elevations of 1800ft. But expect little accumulation. Then for the rest of today look out for dense fog on the ridge tops due to low clouds at about 800ft. For tommorrow sun may break out in the eastern part of the state, but I doubt it. Rain will move in across the state by nightfall with rain totals approaching one inch state wide. In the far western and northern part of the state near Erie there may be a change from rain to snow at the tail end of the storm but I doubt it. If this happens still expect no accumulation. Then for Saturday it stays mostly cloudy with some sun across the east.
Current Radar...
"Long Term"
We are in a very active weather pattern with alot to talk about. First off the Sunday-Monday storm. The is limited cold air, but it may be just cold enough for a little snow storm in the southern half of Pennsylvania. The GFS keeps precipitation to the south of the Mason-Dixon line. The EURO brings in the cold front and a wave develops off of that and becomes a small coastal storm with many areas seeing snow. From about the line from Garret county, Maryland to Baltimore, Maryland, to Wilmington, Delaware, to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to the coast of New Jersey. Anybody to the north of that line has a chance to see moderate snow accumulations if the EURO is true. The CANADIAN model is in between the EURO and GFS with just light snow from a weak wave developing off of the cold front. So for now I will stick with that forecast for light snow north of the line I mentioned earlier. This forecast could change though. Check out the EURO for the 31st...
After that storm arctic air moves in with high temperatures for next week from 32degrees in Philadelphia to 20degrees in the mountains of northern PA. The question though for next week is if a coastal storm can develop. This would happen if a shortwave gets taken in by the trough and heads up the eastern seaboard spreading all snow. So far the models show no storms, because they think the trough will be too far east so even if a coastal storm would develop then it would be too far east to affect anyone. We will just have to wait and see. Also for todays NAO. It shows us getting highly positive for midmonth and then dropping possibly back to negative later in the month.
Current NAO...
***100pm update
Well the 12z GFS shows enough cold air, but no precipitation for the sunday-monday storm. I will have another update as soon as the 12z EURO comes out.
***300pm update
Well the 12z EURO is out and it shows a wave still going through Virginia, and then developing a coastal low. The model run is almost the same as the 0z run, execpt the 12z run shows more in the way of precipitation
***500pm update
Well the 18z GFS is still saying it should be a flat wave through southern Virginia with precipitation not getting even as far north as Washington, DC. But it does show a lot of cold air over the region. I just checked Henry Margusity's 430pm blog, and he believed the GFS will come around to the coastal storm scenerio. So I believe anybody north of the line I mentioned earlier has fair game in getting snow from this storm. But still the storm is many days away and things will probably change. I am starting to understand why the coastal storm might happen, so I am leaning towards that solution.
***830pm update
Well a possible major lake effect snow outbreak looms in the future. After the clipper moves through on Monday with snow showers then the arctic air moves through with a west,north,west flow setting up. It looks as if some impressive banding could occur here in Pennsylvania. And when shortwaves move through next week this will enhance the lake effect snow and bring banding all the way to just east of the mountains. Areas in the laurel highlands and northwest mountains should prepare for a possible major snow event from the lakes. Some spots even is central Pennsylvania may see an inch or two of snow if the banding sets up. It looks like Tuesday will be the worst of the days for lake effect. I will have much more on this possibility this weekend.
My concerns for Sun-Mon Storm
A. Marginal cold air mass
B. Why does a big storm blow up like the EURO shows
C. The GFS forecasted the recent coastal better than the
Euro
D. The storm just heads out to sea
"Just to throw out there"
For the storm on Sunday, the GFS shows little precipitation for anyone in Pennsylvania. Now remember the GFS also predicted yesterday's coastal storm more accurately than the other models. So maybe the GFS is right. We will have to wait and see.
"Regional Forecasts" (Thursday Night)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Cloudy. Low 31.
2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Cloudy with areas of fog after 2am. Low 32.
3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Mostly cloudy. Low 35.
4. Central- (State College)-
Cloudy with dense fog late. Low 29.
5. Northern- (Bradford, Williamsport, Erie)-
Mostly cloudy with patchy dense fog late. Low 29.
6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Cloudy. Low 31.
7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Cloudy with widespread dense fog. Low 29.
***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.
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Updated: 1:39 AM GMT on December 28, 2007
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Regional forecast for tonight's coastal storm...
"Afternoon Thoughts"
Well good morning and I hope everybody had a wonderful Christmas. Anyway last night a few snow showers moved into my region and I got a surprise coating of snow and when I look at radar it shows more snow moving into my area soon. This is all from a coastal low. This coastal low may pull a few surprises. It seems to be closer to the coast than the models thought it would be for this time. My temperature at my north of Harrisburg is 33degrees as of 1040am. This temperature is much colder than any weather station predicted. But I have noticed that the deformation band of snow headed my way is being ripped apart, probably by the high pressure. Still though it will be interesting to watch what will happen with this storm. I think some areas in MA, NH, and VT will get several inches of snow. I do not think any accumulation will occur here in PA from this storm. Also thursday and short wave moves into PA, probably and the New York border. This might cause a coating to two inches of snow in some higher elevations of Pennsylvania. About above 1700ft is where most of the accumulating snow will be. Here in southern PA, I expect little if anything from this week storm too.
I will have more on this storm this afternoon.
Current Radar...
Also for this December 31st storm, the GFS really wants to deliver a coastal storm with many areas getting snow, even as far south as the Delaware Valley. If this would happen many areas would see moderate accumulations of snow.
Check out the 06z GFS for the 31st...
Then for the January storm. Many questions still remain with this, but one thing is for sure and arctic outbreak will be headed in for next week. Though it will be shortlived, and then most of the USA goes above average in temperature for a time. I check many models and do not see a storm on any of the models for the first week in January, but I may have missed something. Correct me if I am wrong.
***Update as of 1130am...
Well the 12z gfs is out for the 31st and it shows not a coastal low, but it shows another low heading up through Ohio spreading warm air northward, so in this case there would be little snow. Also for today's coastal storm it shows the storm farthur west than previous models. This will be something to watch. Here is the 12z gfs model map for the 31st...
***Update as of 330pm...
Well interesting, very interesting the coastal storm in much farthur inland than any of the models predicted, temperatures are about 10degrees colder than any weather service predicted, and the slug of precipitation is as far west as Martinsburg, West Virginia and the precipitation does not seem to be moving east. The radar basically shows the precip. moving very slowly to the north with it all most being light. Here north of Harrisburg it is 36degrees and lightly raining. I think it will be interesting in the next few hours to see what happens with this storm. Once the sun sets temperatures will probably drop 2-4degrees by evening and that will be close enough for maybe some areas to see snow. We will have to wait and see. It will be interesting to see how long precipitation hangs out in the far west. I will issue my forecast regional for tonight for Pennsylvania around 500pm.
I should have much more on these storms sometime later today...
"Short Term Outlook"
Regional forecast for tonight...
Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Light rain. Low 32.
South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Light rain ending. Remaining cloudy. Low 31.
Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Light rain all night. .25inch of rain. Low 34.
Central- (State College)-
Cloudy. Flurries and a few snow showers after midnight. No snow accumulation. Low 26.
Northern- (Bradford, Williamsport, Erie)-
Cloudy then light snow after 2am. (coating to one inch of snow accumulation) Low 27.
Western- (Pittsburgh)
Cloudy with late night flurries. Low 27.
Johnstown, Altoona-
Cloudy. Late night flurries. Low 25.
Check back soon. Blog is in progress.
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Updated: 10:23 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
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400pm on the storms...
Long Term Outlook
Well good morning and Merry Christmas. It seems many of the forecast models are predicting a major storm for the first couple days of January and some models are even predicting snow for the 31st of December, which is also something to watch. Well one thing is for sure it appears a extremely frigid arctic airmass is going to move south for the first week of December. If some of the models are right then it is cold enough to snow in places like Austin, Texas. Check out this model run for January 2.
Wow that is cold. The -10degree line is all the way to the gulf coast. And look at that high over Utah, 1056mb, that would create horrible and record breaking Santa Anna winds. With this extreme contrast in temperatures something is bound to develop somewhere. Now the 06z run of the gfs does not have the coastal low like previous runs, it does have a blob of heavy precipition of the southeast coast. Also this model shows heavy lake effect snow stretching all the way to Tennessee. This all is the perfect set up for something big to happen. The ingredients are there except for the NAO.
Todays NAO...
Also for my last morning thought, did anyone check out the NAM. It shows the coastal low a little closer to the coast. It even prints out .25inch-.5inch of the cape of MA. That would probably be mostly rain, though. The 0degree celcius line is too far north for any parts of MA to see all snow.
**Update as of 1230pm
Well the new 12z gfs is in and.......well it shows a powerul front moving in across the region with rain on the front end then snow on the back end. No coastal low is shown. But, for the 4 of January it has a major coastal storm, except though it is far out to sea and does not affect anyone. So my take on all of this is that the GFS is confused. I think it senses there will be a powerful storm around New Years. It is getting confused because of this unbelievibly strong arctic air mass moving into to most of the country. Here is the 12z GFS map for January 4...
I believe there will be a storm somewhere across the country. The air masses are going to collide creating a big storm, whether it is just a strong front, a low that heads up through great lakes, or a coastal low. We do not just yet know. It is still a long ways away. My only worry is that the NAO is becoming neutral or positive. That is one limiting factor of why we might not see a coastal low. La Nina years are strange years. The winters can be hard to predict, but one thing is for sure many La Nina years have created some powerful storms in the past.
**Update as of 400pm
Well I took a look at the 12z run for the EURO model and it shows some interesting things. First it keeps showing the coastal storm for the 26 of December, affecting mainly coastal areas of New England. But it looks like mainly a rain storm. Then it shows a relatively strong coastal low for the 31 of December. Check it out...
Then after that storm it appears for the first week of January storm it has a strong front move through with a low developing on that and heading north. It shows the coastal low being farther west and bringing in some warmer air to some areas instead of all snow. Here is the 12z EURO for January 3...
So for now I hope everybody has a wonderful Christmas, and I might have an update sometime late tommorrow morning.
Merry Christmas!
***Christmas morning update...
Well this is going to be my one and only update today. I looked at all of the models and the all agree on a coastal low for this week especially thursday. The NAM prints out more precipitation for inland areas while the gfs keeps it a little more out to see. This storm will be interesting to watch, there could be a surprise or two before this storm is said and done. This weekend all of the models agree on a rain storm for saturday. Then for the 31st there is some disagreement. The EURO develops a coastal low and brings snow to many areas, while the GFS brings a storm through the Carolinas and out to sea delivering a little snow for areas north of Baltimore and south of State College. The NWS for my area says their gut feeling is a storm will head farthur west with everybody getting rain. Remember there is no real cold air during the time of this possible storm. Here is the 0z EURO for the 31st...
Also the for the first week of January the models all agree on a large arctic outbreak, but there a lot of disagreements about a large storm next week. So we will have to wait and see.
Also I just checked and the 12z NAM comes in with .1inch-.25inch of precipitation over the state of Pennsylvania for Thursday's wave and it shows the 0degree line at the mason-dixon line. This maybe something to watch for a inch or two of snow across the state of Pennsylvania for Thursday.
Also I updated the NAO above and as you can see it goes slightly negative around the 1st of January, then it goes highly positive.
Have a wonderful day and Merry Christmas!
**Update as of 400pm...
Quick update. Well the 12z run on the EURO shows only rain for the middle atlantic for the 31st, but it still maintains the arctic airmass. Also the 18z run on the NAM prints out moderate precipitation over the middle atlantic coast line for the 26th storm. And it shows a wave bringing .1-.25inch of precipitation over Pennsylvania. That would probably be snow or a mix of rain/snow. That will be something to watch for maybe a surprise inch of snow over PA. Though the NWS's seem to think it will all be rain, even in the north. We will have to watch it.
Check back shortly, this blog is in progress...
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Updated: 8:51 PM GMT on December 25, 2007
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January 2 coastal storm?
"Afternoon thoughts"
Good morning. Today a powerful cold front will move through the area with heavy rain and high winds. A wind advisory and some high wind warnings are out for all of Pennsylvania. Also the spc has highlighted central and western pennsylvania for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. The will be a low topped squall line which will form and possible have some miniature supercells with some rotation too. This will also be something to watch. After the front moves through the lake effect machine fires up with snow in the northwest.
Severe Weather Outlook...
"Short Term Forecast"
Currently here in Harrisburg it is 53degrees with low clouds (ceiling about 700'), light rain, and fog (visibility about 1.5miles). Today could be interesting across the state with a narrow band of extremely heavy rain and a possible embeded thunderstorm. We could see some very high winds with the frontal passage in excess of 50mph for a hour or two. Also dropping temperatures will result in a few hour period of snow across the western half of the state. Expect no snow across the eastern half. Rain totals statewide should be about 1inch. Snow totals from front should be about 1inch across the north and west. Also lake effect will begin after the front and drop several inches in typical snow belts.
*More updates coming throughout the day...
Weather Warnings...
*High Wind Warning* for central Pennsylvania
*Wind Advisory* for northeastern Pennsylvania
*High Wind Warning* for extreme northwestern Pennsylvania
*Wind Advisory* for western Pennsylvania
*High Wind Warning* for southern Poconos
*Flood Watch* for eastern Pennyslvania
Warning Map...
Radar...
"Christmas Forecast(longterm)"
Christmas looks to remain cloudy across most of the state with some flurries in the northwest and southcentral. Also throughout next week are chances for small precipitation chances with small fronts. Rain during day and snow during night can be expected. Highs will remain seasonable until this weekend with the next major storm. Many questions remain with that storm. Track will play a major part in precipitation types. Also the 12z run of the GFS shows a coastal storm on New Year's Day with snow affecting the entire state. This will be something to watch, because this is also when the NAO goes negative again. Check out this model run for the January 1 storm...
So here is my christmas day forecast...
Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Mostly cloudy and cold. High 40. Low 27.
South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Cloudy and cold. Passing flurry. High 39. Low 27.
Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Partly cloudy and cool. High 45. Low 30.
Central- (State College)-
Cloudy and cold. High 34. Low 21.
Northern- (Bradford, Williamsport, Erie)-
A few snow showers. (coating of snow)High 32. Low 21.
Western- (Pittsburg)
Cloudy and cold. A few snow showers. High 36. Low 26.
Johnstown, Altoona-
A few snow showers. (coating of snow)High 31. Low 23.
Here is todays NAO...
**Just to throw out there...
The EURO model and GFS model have extremely different scenerios for the weather after about Wednesday. Personally I do not think we can trust either model. Also the GFS develops a relatively strong coastal storm on Thursday, but it stays far enough off shore not to cause an impacts. We still though should watch the track, in case of any changes will have a dramatic impact on the coastline of the middle atlantic and new england.
***Update as of 200pm
Check out that mean looking squall line near Latrobe, PA.
It developed right behind that small dry slot. The squall line will probably contain very heavy rain along with isolated gusts to 65mph. I will have continuing updates on the severe weather throughout the day across Pennsylvania.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...CENTRAL NY...NRN DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231911Z - 232045Z
LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN WRN PA AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS MAY INCREASE AS THESE LINES
MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN PA...CENTRAL NY AND PERHAPS EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN DELMARVA. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS A POSSIBLE SOON.
CONVECTION IN WRN PA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXTREME WITH 50-70 KT
WINDS LOCATED LESS THAN 1 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...THE
WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PREDOMINATELY SLY...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE N-S ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...A 100 KT JET
STREAK LOCATED AT 500 MB WAS LOCATED OVER KY AT NOON AND IS FORECAST
TO NOT ONLY INCREASE THE MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...BUT ALSO AID IN
VEERING THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO MORE WLY AND
PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE SEGMENTS. THE WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE THE
LINE SEGMENTS MORE RAPIDLY EWD AND ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT/DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE
JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN WRN PA BY 21Z...WITH INCREASED
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE WITH LINE OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE SOON.
DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LINE SEGMENTS...THE WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF CONVECTION AND ONLY VERY
ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
**400pm Update
A High Wind Warning has been issued now for most of central Pennsylvania replacing the wind advisory. The squall line looks like it weakend but it may restrengthen when it hits 60degree air here in the central Pennsylvania area. Stay tuned for furthur updates through this afternoon and evening. Also I noticed light snow is being reported in Erie after they were at 53degrees earlier today. So there is a dramatic temp. drop off after the front goes through.
**800pm Update
Well the front blew threw Harrisburg PA with some trees and power lines down near Middletown. It is now windy with falling temperatures. Lake effect snow will start in snow belt regions as soon as the winds shift from the southwest to the west. Check out the model run for the 2 of January. It has a major coastal storm with lots of snow. This will be something to watch.
***Note***
This is the format I will give forecasts for the State of Pennsylvania for normal days unless a major storm is expected.
Afternoon thoughts, Short term, Long term, Just to throw out there, and last any updates needed
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Updated: 12:50 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
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Pennsylvania weekly forecast...
Well the severe ice storm has finally ended for us here in southcentral Pennyslvania...
Here are the latest reports from the storm from Harrisburg, PA. Also these are pictures I took after the storm from around my neighborhood.
We were very fortunate at my house that we did not lose power. In my county over 160,000 people were with out power during some point of the storm. In some areas people are still without power waiting till Wednesday for it to return. PPL, our electric company for central PA, is calling for help in Ohio to fix power. Shelters are being opened. Also I would say 1 out of every 3 homes lost trees in my community. Including us, which we lost several large limbs and branches. Interviewed tree trimers in the newspaper said this was the worst storm in 32years. In one area of the county along a few miles worth of road, over 100 trees fell on a single powerline. Also I noticed that at a nearby golf coarse I saw unbelievable damage. It is a driving range and the large nets with metal poles the size of a 3-story building actually snapped in half. WOW!
My totals for my weather station...
.5inch of sleet
.25inch of snow (lake effect)
.5inch of freezing rain
Quite a mess...
The beauty though of the ice when the sun came out was out of this world. Yet the ice is so destructive
The rest of December...
It looks like most of Pennsylvania stays below average in temperatures and we remain nearby an active storm track. It tends to look like we remain on milder sides of storms with more ice than snow. But there could be come surprise snows still. Especially with clippers. Looks like this Thurs. night and Friday we need to watch for a small clipper and also we need to watch a coastal storm sometime this weekend. Maybe??? The models are everywhere with that coastal storm.
Furthur short updates everyday this week...
For now (short term)...
Well were are in what I call relatively boring weather pattern. No major storms are headed our way towards Pennsylvania. There are two small systems of note in the short term though. One will come and affect Northern Pennsylvania with snow showers. This will be on Wednesday. Only expect flurries in the southern half. A coating to an inch of snow is expected in the north. No accumulation in the south. Then on Friday maybe a little more significant of a storm is possible. Many questions still remain. It looks like mainly snow. Accumulations will be minor if anything at all even occurs. The Philadelphia region is in the rain/snow mix area. Temperatures should remain below normal with highs in the mid 30's in the mountains to mid 40's near the Philadelphia region. I do not think anyone will hit 50 again anytime soon. Maybe Philadelphia on Sunday, but i doubt it. Also little lake effect snow will occur this week, but some areas could pick up an inch near Bradford from Lake Effect late in the week.
***Christmas Weather...(subject to change)
For now across the state it is sunny and cold with highs in the 30's statewide. Some flurries are possible in the northwest. Some snowcover will remain in just the northwest snowbelt regions. Everyone else should be just plain old ground. It does not look like a white christmas for many people this year.
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Updated: 11:27 AM GMT on December 19, 2007
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Update with new ice storm pictures (quite something)!
Well a major winter storm is headed east towards the northeast. This storm is going to be difficult to forecast due to the invasion of the warm air coming from the gulf of mexico. Precipitation types are still not yet certain.
Current Radar shows precipitation breaking out over central plains and Ohio valley all headed northeast. The low will be tracking west of the mountains.
***NEW update as of 1030am...
Well central pennyslvania has suffered horribly. Here in Harrisburg we started with a half inch of sleet, then we picked up another .5inch of frz rain. Tree limbs are down and power is out to at least 30,000 in my county. The highest snow total I saw was out near Bradford with about 5inch of snow. I also think those numbers will rise with lake effect and wrap around snow showers. In the snowbelts they may see over 3inches of snow and in the central part about an inch. Maybe a coating in Philadelphia today. I doubt it though. I noticed already many locations have just changed to snow including Altoona, State College, Clearfield, Johnstown, Bradford, Du Bois, and Erie. This is caused by the coastal deeping low that is bringing in cooler air aloft. This transition will take place across the state from west to east. It will be interesting to see how much snow wraps around this system.
I will have another update soon...
***More updates are coming throughout the day...
Regional Preliminary Forecast for Pennyslvania...
Winter Storm Warning for Laural Highlands...
Winter Storm Warning for northern parts of the state...
Winter Storm Watch for eastern areas...
Winter Weather Advisory for central through northeastern areas...
High Wind Watch for eastern areas...
Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
totals- 1inch sleet, .25inch of frz rain
South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
totals- 1nch sleet, .25-.5 of frz rain
Southern- (Philadelphia)-
totals- trace of sleet, .1 of frz rain, .5 rain
Central- (State College)-
totals- 3inch of sleet, .5inch of frz rain
Northern- (Bradford, Williamsport, Erie)-
totals- 5-9inch of snow, 1inch of sleet
Western- (Pittsburg)
totals- .5inch of sleet, .2inch of frz rain
Johnstown, Altoona-
totals- major freezing rain, more than .5
Subject to change...
Ice Map overall for upcoming storm for Pennyslvania...
I will issue forecasts for the winter for regions of Pennyslvania...
Overall- This storm will cause major travel headaches across the state with a major ice storm possible. Sorry Philadelphia and I95 mostly rain, a little snow on beginning and backlash of storm. Little snow looks likely for hardly anyone now. Maybe just far northern areas such as erie and bradford. The track still remains uncertain.
Long term outlook- On december 26 gfs shows a major all out snowstorm. That will be one of the next storms to track.
Picture of ice on trees in my backyard from December 16 (today).
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Updated: 4:13 PM GMT on December 16, 2007
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