Another major winter storm!!!

By: Zachary Labe , 8:26 PM GMT on December 04, 2009

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Thoughts on December 5th Snowstorm...
Well surprise, surprise... It appears for once we have a decent coastal storm to start December. But look at that date, the infamous and magical December 5th did its dirty work again. This will be the third year in a row for accumulating snow on December 5th here in Harrisburg and many surrounding areas along with many other past seasons also. I think this storm is going to take many average "joe" citizens by the surprise. For those of us in the Middle Atlantic it looks like most of us will cash in with at least a coating or more and some areas unexpectantly may be the jackpot areas where originally it looked like meager accumulations. I am quite enthused for this event considering March 1 was the last accumulating snowfall for many areas. This snowstorm may help to push snow totals across the southern Middle Atlantic for average accumulation for the entire month. Keep in mind December monthly totals are rarely above 5in in the Middle Atlantic. I do not have too many immediate concerns for this system, even though the forecast has changed dramatically in the last 12hrs. Initially at the beginning of the week this chance looked very good with an amplflied trough and strong southwest cutoff allowing the trough to turn negatively tilted. The main factor lacking was a high pressure to the north and upstream blocking. But during the week models moved east with the system which made some sense, but did not. First off low pressures near the Panhandle of Florida typically do track near benchmark or east especially without a real arctic airmass with an anomalous negatively tilted trough, but without upstream blocking in this scenario I saw it being trended west and not east. Think of it this way, without blocking many times storms track to our west and not east. Anyways then the GFS and ECMWF showed great interaction between a Pacific Northwest shortwave and a Great Lakes cutoff weak shortwave. This was the initiating feature to push this storm west and this type of interaction is often the kiss of death for coastal runners. But along came the high resolution model, which is actually very good at predicting coastals, but anyways it came along and showed a farther west low. Many meteorologists threw the NAM out being 84hrs out at the end of the NAM range. But then the models began to swing west and this is now continuing. There is quite a bit of gulf moisture; note current Florida radar. A widespread snowstorm is coming with initially rainfall south of the Mason-Dixon line. There are a lot of things on my to do list tonight for making this forecast, but I think this blog will be completely finished by 10pm or so. So who is ready!!!

Timeline...
COMING SOON!!!


***The timeline for the second system will be issued tomorrow afternoon.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
It appears that cold air will be a problem for those south of the Mason-Dixon Line especially below 700ft. Many areas will start out as rain with nearly .25in QPF being used for pure rain especially towards I-95 on southward including the major metropolitans. But as the storms wraps out off the coast it appears cold air will be pulled from the northeast as the primary winds will be out of the north-northeast instead of the east. Therefore this will cause a limited effect on surface temperatures on the coast from the warm SSTs of the Atlantic. Most areas will turn to snow by the second half of the storm with additional QPF for all areas. Many areas south of the Mason-Dixon line will also have ground temperature problems with areas to the north of the line having initial problems. But from north to south snow will accumulate courtesy of colder air and increase in precipitation rates. This rain/snow line is a rough estimate for the precipitation types during the height of the storm.

My rain/snow line is... Charlottesville, VA - Dale City, VA - Annapolis, MD - Georgetown, DE - Lakewood, NJ

*Note these lines are estimates and actual locations may vary. Snow is north of line, rain is south.

Storm Reports...

*Note in general the forecast was a success!

Storm Impacts...
1. First accumulating snow for season in Middle Atlantic.
2. Initially snow melts upon contact before precipitation rates increase.
3. Snow accumulations will not exceed 6in for most locales.
4. Rain/snow mix is likely towards southern Maryland and southern Delaware.
5. Widespread impacts up and down the I-95 corridor.

Snow Map...

*Note especially in the 3-6in region, it is a bit elevation specific and most areas will be in the lower range of that total but isolated 6inches are possible especially towards the Chester County hills in the northwestern part of the county.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Moderate snow likely; 3-5inch
Baltimore, MD- Rain and snow to all snow; 2-4inch
Washington, DC- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-4inch
Wilmington, DE- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-4inch
Dover, DE- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-3inch
Cape May, NJ- Rain with a few flakes; Trace of snow
Trenton, NJ- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-3inch
New York City, NY- Rain and snow to snow; slushy accumulation of 1-3inch
Poughkeepsie, NY- Moderate snow at times; 2-4inch
Binghamton, NY- Periods of light snow; 1inch
Albany, NY- Light snow showers; Coating of snow
Hartford, CT- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-4inch
Concord, NH- Periods of light snow; 1inch
Providence, RI- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-3inch
Worcester, MA- Moderate periods of snow; 2-5inch
Boston, MA- Rain changing to snow; 1-2inch
Nantucket, MA- Mostly rain with a few flakes; Trace of snow
Hyannis, MA- Rain and snow; Slushy accumulation C-1inch
Portland, ME- Intermittent light snow; 1inch
Bangor, ME- Light snow showers; C-1inch
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
COMING SOON!!!

After the storm...
It appears next week will be quite active with a large amplified storm affecting the Middle Atlantic around the Wednesday time frame. Despite the ECMWF and GFS guidance forecast a Ohio Valley system, I think this has the option to develop a secondary low off of the Delmarva to save us north of the Mason-Dixon line and allow for some accumulating snow. This recent 18z GFS run shows the option beautifully along with the 12z UKMET on board also. I am definitely watching this period as it looked favorable back in November where I highlighted the threat around the 28th. It all depends on if we can get a secondary low pressure to form. At least 1inch of front-end snow is somewhat likely especially across northern Maryland on northward, but southward trends have been noted on several of the models as this system is accompanied by a strong cold front. This cold front will allow for the first cold blast of the season towards the end of next week. Cold air is building across western Canada courtesy of the retrograting Polar Vortex into the region, which will allow for some cold air to begin to advect into the United States. It appears H85s will drop below -10C for many across the northern Middle Atlantic allowing for highs in the 30s for temperatures around 5-10F below normal. This cold blast has been highly advertised on the models for the past 7-10 days. We still are lacking upstream blocking courtesy of the east based negative NAO so storms tracking to our west through the next week or two are definitely possible, but I am keeping a close eye on the system for next week.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.5in
Monthly Total- 4.0in
Seasonal Total- 4.0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 30.6F
Lowest Low Temperature- 17.1F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain

December 5th Snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
Summit of Blue Mountain (elevation ~1300ft), just northeast of Harrisburg, PA. About 1.5-2inches of accumulated snowfall so far.
December 5th Snowstorm...
December 5th Snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
Summit of Blue Mountain (elevation ~1300ft), just northeast of Harrisburg, PA. About 1.5-2inches of accumulated snowfall so far.
December 5th Snowstorm...
December 5th Snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
Summit of Blue Mountain (elevation ~1300ft), just northeast of Harrisburg, PA. About 1.5-2inches of accumulated snowfall so far.
December 5th Snowstorm...

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I'm expecting a little slug of snow here in Eastern Mass,but the ocean is still pretty warm and the winds are going to be e then se,so
I expect a pretty quick change over after 2 or 3 inches.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
I'm actually becoming concerned for the prospects of a "bust" for our area. Perhaps Blizz can correct me if I'm wrong on this but it's already 35 degrees outside and sunny. I'm worrying that the temperatures will be too warm to support frozen precip even at the initial onslaught of the storm system. Now whether evaporational cooling will take place or not, I'm not sure -- that's why I come here lol, but from my chair and my being outside already this morning, I'm starting to think it's all liquid, all the time.


Yeah, PP, I was thinking the same thing. But it looks like the weather won't really move in until later tonight after it cools off a bit. It's the warming up tomorrow that makes me want to call bust for sure though. I mean, whatever happens overnight will be gone with a high of 40 tomorrow afternoon and 8-10 hours of rain tomorrow morning. No time to enjoy the snow that may fall later tonight, if it even falls at all.
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I'm actually becoming concerned for the prospects of a "bust" for our area. Perhaps Blizz can correct me if I'm wrong on this but it's already 35 degrees outside and sunny. I'm worrying that the temperatures will be too warm to support frozen precip even at the initial onslaught of the storm system. Now whether evaporational cooling will take place or not, I'm not sure -- that's why I come here lol, but from my chair and my being outside already this morning, I'm starting to think it's all liquid, all the time.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
PP I agree, they did that a lot last year too, hype a storm up with the watch, when clearly their forecast wasn't going to meet the criteria for one, and then downgrade. I fully expected the advisory this morning. Interestingly, they had called for 1 inch of snow, it now looks like 1-3, that would more than we had with the last snow......we'll see.

Should be fun!


Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Well, looks like for me in SW CT. mostly rain after some snow or mixed precip at the start, with no snow cover after the precip stops. :(
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Storm day, folks... Storm day.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Winter Storm Watches issued by both the Gray, ME NWS office and Caribou, ME office.
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jthal - you are putting words on the screen i didn't write. i never said negative in my posts. please try to control your emotions.

i don't think it should be up to the schools to graduate students. it should be an individual that wants to graduate. now of course there should be guidelines and minimum GPA's. i wasn't a student athlete just a student and the college could careless whether I graduated or not and that is how it should be. they aren't babysitters.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
Nice to see I called my shot with the downgrade to WWA. Still... why even bother with the WSW if you're just going to downgrade 12 hours later? Dopes.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-
MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
612 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
Winter Weather Advisories out! I am thinking locations along and north of turnpike see 1-4in of snow followed by a short period of sleet and freezing rain before all rain. Areas south of there should see C-1inch of snow turning to a glaze of freezing rain then rain. Areas north of I-80 should see 3-5in of snow followed by some freezing rain then a little bit of plain rain. The Laurel Highlands may see an extended period of iciing. South of the PA/MD line could be mostly rain.

It appears this weekend storm is still a threat with the 0z ECMWF favoring locations in northern Maryland and much of Pennsylvania with a light to moderate snow accumulation. GFS is similar with just a bit lighter QPF. Maybe we can build a snowpack as the snow Tuesday night may stick around as a dry slot could prevent some of the rainfall on Wednesday. And after Wednesday highs stay below freezing. Then we get the Saturday late day snow so maybe just maybe? Do not get your hopes up though, lol.

Models have trended a bit warmer with this current Tuesday evening event mainly courtesy of the strong southwesterlies aloft. Note the high wind watch out in the Ohio Valley through northwestern Pennsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
Blizzard, I think the big pattern changing of a storm will come the week of Christmas or the weekend before Christmas. As I have stated in a previous post, the 15th through the 21st will present a storm, but where, when and what it gives the region remains uncertain. Reasons to be happy: are, west based -NAO trending positive, -AAO, I mean near -4 from deviation, and a +PNA in this period, all signs of a potential monster. Now track becomes uncertain, but I think it will be a more of a coastal snowstorm, given the west based -NAO which would potentially favor a closer to the coast, but if it is an intense storm like the GFS had according to its 6z run earlier today, then the dynamical cooling will allow even Cape Cod, MA to potential see a blizzard, now of course it is all speculation, but further research will be done, to try and correlate the teleconnections which were favorable for East Coast Monsters of the past.
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This "debate" has quickly become a race to the bottom. How about we all just agree to disagree, and move on? lol

Does this storm suck that much that instead of discussing it, we're talking about PSU Football? To quote the d-bags from ESPN, "C'mon Maaaaaaan!"

Blizz, what's the word m'man?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
jthal - the difference with Texas and Florida and Alabama is that 2 of those 3 are playing for the national championship and Fla was #1 until the SEC championship game. They have tons more respect.

btw - big whoop that they graduate football players. wow.

I was a PU fan back in the 70's, 80's and 90's. you may think Joe is respected but the program isn't. go back to all season long and every ex-coach you hear on tv doesn't give PU any respect because of the soft schedule. I couldn't tell you how many times I heard it on tv this season.

oh yes, somewhere in my subconscience there is something else. i will have to search it sometime or maybe go see a Dr. and he can tell me what it is. hahaha

SSA - i just think it is hilarious the PU football fanatics.

All top 25 teams have respect when they play an inferior team.
I probably watch 12-15 hours of football every weekend, and I have never heard an ex- or current coach say anything negative about paterno. If you have, please post the link.
It's not important if a school doesn't graduate its players? Isn't that what colleges are supposed to do??
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blizz- State college seems pretty steadfast on temps warming with a strong southerly flow. Are the surface winds going to be from the east/northeast(CAD) or from the south?
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jthal - the difference with Texas and Florida and Alabama is that 2 of those 3 are playing for the national championship and Fla was #1 until the SEC championship game. They have tons more respect.

btw - big whoop that they graduate football players. wow.

I was a PU fan back in the 70's, 80's and 90's. you may think Joe is respected but the program isn't. go back to all season long and every ex-coach you hear on tv doesn't give PU any respect because of the soft schedule. I couldn't tell you how many times I heard it on tv this season.

oh yes, somewhere in my subconscience there is something else. i will have to search it sometime or maybe go see a Dr. and he can tell me what it is. hahaha

SSA - i just think it is hilarious the PU football fanatics.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


Why are we talking about football when there is snow on the way? You had April/May-October/November to talk about this non-snow trash. On a related aside: PSU sets up easy knockdown teams for most of the season, plays their required conference games, and in all ways possible "sticks it" to their students. And on top of that, JoePa is old and doesn't use a headset. Big fat hairy deal.

Just for kicks, how do they do that?? I can't wait for your response!
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Quoting jthal57:


You live in a state that is ultra passionate about football, from pee-wee's to the pros. Of course the state university has an unbelievable following. You think if you lived in a state like Tennessee or Texas or Nebraska that it's any different? If anything, it's worse in many cases! So yes, when you're out in public you're going to hear fans express joy, concern, or anger about their team. I appreciate that you were a fan and now you're not, but I've been a fan for probably 35 years, and quite frankly, the team hasn't changed. They are almost always nationally ranked, they run a relatively clean program, and they graduate their players (btw, #1 in the nation in Div.1 in that category), and their football program has helped the university grow to a top academic institution in the nation. So you can choose to refer to Penn State as "PU" in a derogatory way, but I just think there is more to you not liking Penn State than a few people cheering for their team or the team playing a few soft teams on their schedule.
As far as JoePa is concerned, I don't think he is any less respected now than he was. If anything, I feel he is more respected, and every ex-coach or current coach you hear on TV or read in papers/magazine articles have expressed that.
FWIW, Texas played UT-ElPaso and Wyoming; Alabama played Fla.International, Chattanooga, and North Texas; Florida played Troy and Charleston Southern; need I go on? They all have a few softies on their schedule, and the softies all have a couple of big name schools on theirs.


Why are we talking about football when there is snow on the way? You had April/May-October/November to talk about this non-snow trash. On a related aside: PSU sets up easy knockdown teams for most of the season, plays their required conference games, and in all ways possible "sticks it" to their students. And on top of that, JoePa is old and doesn't use a headset. Big fat hairy deal.
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Blizzard (and all!) ~

Here's how bad the hype is... My mom, who never, ever knows what's happening with the weather (unless she happens to open the door and get hit in the face with it) came down for dinner tonight. She opened the door, walked in and said, "There's going to be a terrible storm."

Where? says me. I don't know, says she. But there's going to be lots of snow and ice and terrible cold and the whole country is going to be affected.

I haven't a CLUE where she picked it up - off tv somewhere, I'm sure. But be prepared. If mama is talking about it, I'm looking for my mittens! LOL
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I do believe that we are going to have a stormy time of it but not to the point they are hyping it. Now what do you see for Delaware and eastern Maryland for the storm coming up tomorrow and Wednesday?

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND ALOFT
WILL BRING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TAPING INTO THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.
BUT THE DONE PART SHOULD BE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND NOT SNOW HEAVY
AT TIMES FOR US. WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH THE SPLIT FLOWS AND
THIS IS ANOTHER CASE AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH REACHES DEEP INTO THE
MOISTURE SOURCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARRIES IT NORTHEAST INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DARK ON TUESDAY. THE EARLIEST HYDROMETERS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CREEPING UP FROM SOUTHERN DELAWARE
AND OUR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE ZONE OF TALBOT. THAT WOULD BE
AROUND 4PM TUESDAY. THEN THE OVERRUNNING RUNS WILD AND QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SEVEN. THIS WILL BE JUST
PAST THE EVENING RUSH HOUR BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PRECIPITATION IN A LITTLE EARLIER AND THAT COULD BE A MINOR MESS
FOR COMMUTERS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS, THE WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
DELAWARE AND SOUTH WHICH LOOKS LIKE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER,
YOU DON`T WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH DEMARCATION LINES THIS FAR OUT
SO BE PREPARED INTO THE EVENT THE TEMPERATURES STUMBLE ON
THEIR WAY TO SAFELY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS WE GET INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE LINE BETWEEN ALL LIQUID AND MIXED RAIN
SNOW AND SLEET WILL VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE
DELAWARE VALLEY AS THE WARM AIR BEGINS TO SEEP INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS. ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN THAT COULD
OCCUR IF THE COLD AIR LINGER WITH THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WARM JET. HOWEVER
WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOUT A TEN TO TWELVE HOUR OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND IT WILL BE A MESS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SUBURBS UP THROUGH THE
POCONOS WHERE ALL SNOW WILL FALL.

THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SECONDARY SMALL LOW FORMING
OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY WEDNESDAY 12Z. THE RAPID WARM-UP WITH
THE 80H 60 KT JET WILL HOPEFULLY SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN ALL BUT
THE MOST STUBBORN VALLEYS OVER LEIGH AND POCONOS TO PREVENT A
DANGEROUS EPISODE OF FREEZING RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HARSH, BUT FOLLOWING THE
SYSTEMS PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES
REALLY BOTTOM OUT BUT THAT WILL BE COVERED IN OUR LONG TERM
SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFFSHORE. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S
ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO, A LOW WELL OFF TO
OUR NORTH MAY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE COASTAL
LOW AT THIS TIME BUT UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THIS PERIOD REMAINS HIGH.
A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK.

Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
jthal - like i have said in the past PU used to be one of my favorite teams, but since moving to the area I have found the fans overly obnoxious. and it has nothing to do with the fans in the stands. its being in a restaurant and having a few dingbats yell out we are Penn State as they run out of the restaurant. That is just one example. It starts to get to you after awhile.

Second, it is annoying to listen to the fans think that PU is better. Joe used to play a great schedule and that is why he used to be so respected. Not anymore. Had they played better quality teams they might have made better showings against the Big Ten's 2 top teams, but instead they got blown out.

So as you can see it is nothing to do with jealousy. Like I said i USED to be a huge PU fan. Yes, my college team sucked this year because they played mostly underclassman. They at least played teams Cal and Rutgers and Middle Tennessee for their out of conference, all bowl teams. Can't say the same for PU.


You live in a state that is ultra passionate about football, from pee-wee's to the pros. Of course the state university has an unbelievable following. You think if you lived in a state like Tennessee or Texas or Nebraska that it's any different? If anything, it's worse in many cases! So yes, when you're out in public you're going to hear fans express joy, concern, or anger about their team. I appreciate that you were a fan and now you're not, but I've been a fan for probably 35 years, and quite frankly, the team hasn't changed. They are almost always nationally ranked, they run a relatively clean program, and they graduate their players (btw, #1 in the nation in Div.1 in that category), and their football program has helped the university grow to a top academic institution in the nation. So you can choose to refer to Penn State as "PU" in a derogatory way, but I just think there is more to you not liking Penn State than a few people cheering for their team or the team playing a few soft teams on their schedule.
As far as JoePa is concerned, I don't think he is any less respected now than he was. If anything, I feel he is more respected, and every ex-coach or current coach you hear on TV or read in papers/magazine articles have expressed that.
FWIW, Texas played UT-ElPaso and Wyoming; Alabama played Fla.International, Chattanooga, and North Texas; Florida played Troy and Charleston Southern; need I go on? They all have a few softies on their schedule, and the softies all have a couple of big name schools on theirs.
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Quoting weathergeek5:


I also have never seen accuweather hype to the extent they are doing now. I am sure that some of them are actually hyperventilating.

Yea the headlines tonight are literally "Blizzard impacts millions from Colorado to Wisconsin" and "World of Extreme Weather" Hahahahaha.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
Quoting Blizzard92:

Hahaha... Watch it blow up in my face, lol.


I also have never seen accuweather hype to the extent they are doing now. I am sure that some of them are actually hyperventilating.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Quoting shipweather:
moderate as in rise? or normal? and I hope you elaborate on the upcoming storms this weekend.

Back to normal or slightly above. It always seems already New Years it gets warm right before the bottom falls out farm show week in January. New blog out by the end of the week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
moderate as in rise? or normal? and I hope you elaborate on the upcoming storms this weekend.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
shipweather- Eh, I tried for this storm, but I do not think I will have the time. I will write out a forecast though tomorrow afternoon for the Tuesday night/Wednesday storm. I think temperatures begin to moderate around Christmas through early January.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
blog update ? (also is there warm trend coming around the 20th? or are we set for cold for sometime?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
One says nothing, the other says advisory. You guys are confusing me.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Quoting Snowlover2010:
Bliz, I am not in the watch. Should I not expect anything?

You will be under an advisory by sometime tomorrow, just watch.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
not at all snowlover lol. the sharp cutoff from WSW and nothing is also the cutoff from precip and no precip haha.

school wednesday pal, do your homework haha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Bliz, I am not in the watch. Should I not expect anything?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
i think Blizz has been hanging around that other site, weathergeek. hahaha

j/k Blizz
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
Quoting weathergeek5:


I always see you stay on the conservative side like the NWS. In the 2 years you have been on this site this is the first time I have seen you actually say something like this.

Hahaha... Watch it blow up in my face, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
Quoting Blizzard92:
And finally I think a major snowstorm is in store towards the 17th-20th of the month. The 500mb pattern looks fantastic and this is also when the negative NAO becomes positive (remember what that means from my Middle Atlantic winter blog last winter). Everything is looking in shape for a memorable storm potentially. Get ready the next two weeks will be wild! By the way you do not see me hype up too much, so this is looking pretty darn good!!!


I always see you stay on the conservative side like the NWS. In the 2 years you have been on this site this is the first time I have seen you actually say something like this.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
jthal - like i have said in the past PU used to be one of my favorite teams, but since moving to the area I have found the fans overly obnoxious. and it has nothing to do with the fans in the stands. its being in a restaurant and having a few dingbats yell out we are Penn State as they run out of the restaurant. That is just one example. It starts to get to you after awhile.

Second, it is annoying to listen to the fans think that PU is better. Joe used to play a great schedule and that is why he used to be so respected. Not anymore. Had they played better quality teams they might have made better showings against the Big Ten's 2 top teams, but instead they got blown out.

So as you can see it is nothing to do with jealousy. Like I said i USED to be a huge PU fan. Yes, my college team sucked this year because they played mostly underclassman. They at least played teams Cal and Rutgers and Middle Tennessee for their out of conference, all bowl teams. Can't say the same for PU.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
Quoting Blizzard92:
*Good evening all!!! Fun times ahead, and it is not hype, lol.


Ugh, I saw that. Personally I think the change should be for areas in the Great Plains and not for the Northeast, but o well. By the way I will send you those links this evening.


i agree. it's tough to get 1" hail in this part of the country. thanks for the links>
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
it better not be hype!!!!!!!!
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
*Good evening all!!! Fun times ahead, and it is not hype, lol.

Quoting Mason803:
this is a little off our winter theme but i just saw that the nws is going to change its minimum hail size to issue severe thunderstorm warnings from 3/4" (penny size) to 1" (quater size) here's as Link to check out

Ugh, I saw that. Personally I think the change should be for areas in the Great Plains and not for the Northeast, but o well. By the way I will send you those links this evening.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
Was excited to see the Winter Storm Watch here in Ship this afternoon, I has been thinking this was going to be a cold rain storm, but the excitement has built. I imagine by tomorrow it'll simply be an Advisory though, but Blizz is the expert. Also, the NWS seems to think the winter part of the Tuesday night/Wed storm will be over pretty quick, and makes no mention of a sat/sun snow....

And Bliz you better not be over hyping the next few weeks, I just can't handle it!
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Good evening everyone. I am watching the storm on Saturday. Here in Delaware I am thinking that there may be a changeover due to the warm ocean temps if it is close to the coast. I know that there is high uncertainty at the moment.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Blizzard, it looks like this active pattern will continue and favor a giant East Coast Snowstorm sometime in the 15th to 21st of December period. Strong -AAO and a -NAO trending positive as well as an already PNA at that time period, which would have recently trended from its now current negative values. This all shows potential for a large cold arctic airmass to plummet southward out of western Canada favoring a more eastward based trough in the United States. Question then becomes exact placement of the trough and the exact timing and track of the surface low. Right now the GFS is up to its normal track playing games, with should it come into the Great Lakes, or should it stay off the East Coast, but the fact remains, that there will be a huge and potentially significant snowstorm for someone of the eastern areas of this continent, and that could be as far south as Washington D.C., or as far north as the Canadian Maritimes. Now matter the track changes the GFS is going through, it consistently has a 966mb low somewhere up and down the East Coast of North America. Prospects are that within the next two weeks, we could be winding down to a colassal East Coast Snowstorm, perhaps rivaling some of the historic storms of the 1950s or 1960s.
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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
PP - no BCS game this year. if they had played quality opponents in the beginning instead of Towson U and California PA they probably would be where Iowa is bowling in the Orange Bowl. I was around a few PU fans this weekend and they all thought PU would get a BCS game over Iowa. I told them No way, but that is a PU fan for ya even with a team that beat PU in state college. Not going to be easy against LSU (middle of the pack SEC)

OK, let's set the record straight after you spew your anti-Penn State hatred.
1. IF Penn State had played higher-ranked teams earlier, say Texas or Florida, chances are they wouldn't be 10-2 at this point, and not be playing in the Cap. One Bowl.
2. LSU is NOT a middle of the pack SEC team, they are the SEC's third rank team, behind Fla. and Bama. (out of 12 SEC teams). Capital One Bowl pits the 3rd place Big Ten vs. 3rd place SEC.
3. On a personal note, Penn State deserves their bowl. They don't deserve playing in the Orange Bowl. I think they would be the better draw against Georgia Tech, with Iowa being without their qback, but that's not how it works.
I just don't understand your jealousy for Penn State. I know your college team is a nightmare, but don't take it out on Penn State. Don't be a hater, just jump on the bandwagon!
Edit: I honestly did not read PP's message before writing this
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this is a little off our winter theme but i just saw that the nws is going to change its minimum hail size to issue severe thunderstorm warnings from 3/4" (penny size) to 1" (quater size) here's as Link to check out
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
Upweatherdog, this is your storm tomorrow through Thursday. 12-18" of snow, amazing, any lake effect afterwards?


Lake effect will be a part of this snow event. Cold Northeast to North winds wind cause significant lake enhancement over my area. Snowfall by Wednesday afternoon is likely to reach 15 inches in my area. Another 3 to 5 inches of snow is likely Wednesday night. After that, the winds are going to turn west bringing the LES into the Keweenaw. However, snow to water ratios will plummet as arctic air rushes in, resulting in advisory snowfall.

Northeast winds look gust to around 50mph on Wednesday. These winds will create 15 to 20 foot swells on the lake. Since the waves will comming from the northeast, significant beach erosion and lakeshore road flooding is likely in Marquette, whos beaches face northeast.
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Upweatherdog, this is your storm tomorrow through Thursday. 12-18" of snow, amazing, any lake effect afterwards?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For the storm around the 18th, the GFS went backwards with the storm, now coming on the 21st and a monster, but just offshore, where the worst of the snows will be over the ocean and on the coastal locations, but mainly the fish enjoy this 966mb beast, while we get blasted with very strong winds. Now this was the 6z GFS and out 14 days. EURO has a storm for this weekend.
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RkTec- that would mean the changeover period would occur at a later time, which means more winter precip. The 18zNAM did trend further south.
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297. RkTec
Saw this posted on another forum. Thought it was interesting, but don't know how much more of an impact it would have if it were to go further south.

KANSAS AFD

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY (PV) ANOMALY CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. AIRCRAFT DATA IS EVEN SHOWING 130KT JET STREAK
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PV ANOMALY. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR
THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND CAUSE IT TOO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. WE
ARE STARTING SEE HINTS OF THIS ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
PP - wow, a PU fan saying those words? wash your mouth out with soap. Lifebouy. You better hope SSA doesn't look for you. hahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
PS: What's the over/under on the NWS downgrading Winter Storm Watches to Winter Weather Advisories by midnight tonight?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
RP - They didn't deserve a BCS bid this year. I'm glad Iowa got the Orange Bowl as they deserved it. Aside from the unfortunate 3 week span without Stanzi they played admirably and deserve the rewards. I don't think they will fare too well against GT who could run on a brick wall, but that's a different story.

LSU is a good draw for State. Their offense is putrid, around 108th Nationally. Their defense on the other hand is nasty. They held Florida to 13 points, well done. I think it's a defensive game, 10-7 or 17-14 type of game -- but I do think LSU wins with Special Teams being the "X" factor.

I'm not looking forward to next season with a new QB who's not ready, an offensive line that still sucks on ice, and the linebacking corps going bye-bye (don't go Navarro!). 2011 on the other hand should be a year that State competes for a NC if everything holds up.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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