Historic Blizzard of 2009...
Thoughts on December 19-21th Snowstorm...
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT!!!
Timeline...
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT!!!
Radar...
Warnings...
NAO...
This is my current snow/no snow line...
Due to all snow as far south as southern North Carolina, I will post the snow/no snow line across northern areas...
Youngstown, OH - Oil City, PA - Du Bois, PA - Philipsburg, PA - Lewisburg, Pa - Bloomsburg, PA - Scranton, PA - New Milford, PA
*Areas north of line receive less than a dusting of snow, and areas to south see over .1inch of snow. This line may shift southward depending on dry air to north and eastern trends on mesoscale high resolution models.
Storm Reports...
Snow reports already over southern Middle Atlantic...
...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM EST FRI DEC
18 THROUGH 900 PM EST FRI DEC 18...
...KENTUCKY...
PINEVILLE 6.0
DORTON 3.0
...NORTH CAROLINA ...
BOONE 16.0
WEST ASHEVILLE 15.0
FLEETWOOD 14.0
WAYNESVILLE 13.8
WOODLAWN 13.0
GLENDALE SPRINGS 12.5
FLETCHER 12.0
MORGANTON 11.0
WEST JEFFERSON 10.0
ASHEVILLE 7.0
...VIRGINIA...
BLUEFIELD 13.0
BANDY 10.0
LAKE MONTICELLO 9.0
COVESVILLE 2SSE 8.5
COLUMBIA 7.0
ELK CREEK 7.0
ROANOKE 7.0
GREENVILLE 3E 6.5
BANDY 6.0
RICHMOND 3.0
CHARLOTTESVILLE 2.2
...WEST VIRGINIA...
SPANISHBURG 8.5
RAINELLE 8.0
LEWISBURG 7.8
ATHENS 7.0
Storm Impacts...
1. Historic amounts likely towards northern Virginia and all of Maryland up to two feet above 1000ft towards western Virginia.
2. Widespread travel impacts on busy holiday travel up and down east coast including I-95.
3. Blowing and drifting snow likely with potentially high drifts and whiteout conditions.
4. Mesoscale banding over northern Virginia, southeastern Pennsylvania, and Maryland may account for 2in/hr snow rates.
5. Widespread impacts with sharp cutoff on a very defined, but uncertain northern location in central Pennsylvania.
Snow Map...
*Note I am accounting for elevation, orographic lift, and mesoscale banding. The 12in+ zone is for those location courtesy of a slightly higher elevation than surrounding areas near 600' and for the optimum location in mesoscale banding. The northward extent in western Pennsylvania is courtesy of orographic lift for southern facing ridges. I do add a sharp cut-off between heavy snow and little to no snow, which will be difficult to pin down. It is already evident the effects the dry air is having on the north side of the system. This line may shift south depending on storm track, especially if HIRES NMM is correct. Keep in mind though despite the northwest trend in guidance on storm day this year, I did go pretty conservative for northern areas accounting for lack of lift and dry air.
Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Heavy snow; 6-12in of snow.
Baltimore, MD- Heavy snow; 10-19in of snow.
Washington, DC- Blizzard conditions; 10-18in of snow.
Wilmington, DE- Heavy snow; 8-16in of snow.
Dover, DE- Blizzard conditions; 8-15in of snow.
Trenton, NJ- Blizzard conditions; 7-14in of snow.
New York City, NY- Blizzard conditions; 7-14in of snow.
Poughkeepsie, NY- Moderate snow; 3-6in of snow.
Binghamton, NY- Flurries and snow showers; C-1in of snow.
Albany, NY- Flurries and snow showers; C-1in of snow.
Hartford, CT- Heavy snow; 5-10in of snow.
Concord, NH- Mostly cloudy skies.
Providence, RI- Blizzard conditions; 5-10in of snow.
Worcester, MA- Moderate snow; 2-4in of snow.
Boston, MA- Moderate snow; 2-4in of snow.
Nantucket, MA- Blizzard conditions; 5-12in of snow.
Hyannis, MA- Blizzard conditions; 6-12in of snow.
Portland, ME- Flurries and clouds; Trace of snow.
Bangor, ME- Cloudy skies and breezy.
"Subject to Change"
Model Analysis
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT!!!
After the storm...
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT!!!
Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...
"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 9.00in with higher drifts
Monthly Total- 13.0in
Seasonal Total- 13.0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1
(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 28.0F
Lowest Low Temperature- 17.1F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Reader Comments
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The ECMWF, GGEM, and CMC models bring and major storm to the U.P Thursday night through Saturday. The GFS is also trending toward the farther northward solution.
Blocking high pressure to the north will likely keep the low from moving very much, so a persistant northeasterly wind looks to set up over the northern Great Lakes from Friday through Saturday with a low somewhere in Lake Michigan. Winds along with deep moisture will favor signifcant lake enhancement and upslope flow over the northcentral U.P. I wouldn't be surprised if snowfall totals of 30+ inches are observed over Marquette county. One limiting factor may be low Delta Ts and lack of CAA, but I should still pick up at least 15 to 20 inches of snow according to the latest model data.
And snowing outside my window, just fine flakes mixed with rain
29 inches at Stewartstown as of 6PM
Wow!
I really do not buy it at all, I expect to see some southeastward trend.
*Moderate snow here again coming down pretty good. Snow ratios are increasing with increasing Omega and UVV.
OH. YOU JUST GOT BURNED. lol.
Solid foot here, snow coming down heavily. Weird how we were saying earlier in the year how this has been a boring year for weather and then we get this storm at the very end of the year that rewrites the records books in DC for December snow.
25F
winds very light
1006.3mb and rising
Just picked up an additional 2in in last 1.5hr so might be at 9in here though I need to measure to be sure.
I remember as a child walking into town during daylight with mountain drifts
from the radar returns it looks like philly and east of there got hit hard as well as Maryland and DC
Even if the storm stays south, we would still have our northeast winds and more CAA.
The storm track the models currently show would create low Delta Ts because of some WAA, but would bring significant synoptic precip. On the otherhand, the models that are farther south over the Ohio Valley area still bring northeasterly winds along with higher Delta Ts to the U.P, so either way, I should pick up some significant snow.
Looking at history of past snowstorm events in the western Great Lakes area, I can't find any all synoptic snowfall events with 30 inches of snow in 24 hours.
Even though the Midwest gets more snowstorms, the storms seem to move faster and encounter more dry air than storms along the east coast. Why does this occur with Midwest and Great Lakes storms? I'm guessing that storms along the east coast are bigger because of moisture from the Ocean and less influence from polar high pressure.
http://www.ct.gov/dot/cwp/view.asp?a=2354&Q=290242&dotNav=|
Yea looks like the turnpike was the cutoff, but hey this is quite an anomaly for December, no complaints. Turns out snow map looks great especially for northern cutoff which looks excellent. I always doubt my initial forecast, which usually turns out right. I could have extended the 12in+ back through the southern tier counties, but you cannot be perfect.
upweatherdog- I agree completely. As for the big storms, you guys get the blizzard conditions but the loss of no Atlantic moisture and dry arctic air is the killer really. We have the Atlantic ocean (gulf stream) and usually do not have as cold of temperatures.
No Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico to feed moisture into the storm.
Still snowing moderately to heavily.
Light Snow Mist
24
Visibility - 1.0 Miles
4:00 PM seemed to be pretty much the end of it for us here. Still very lightly snowing but not much at all.
I have yet to take an official measurement but I'm guessing we picked up about 7 inches of snow. The story of today for us was the inability to hold onto heavy bands of snow for longer than 15-30 minutes. No complaints though.
Thanks!
Twenty ways to confuse Santa Claus
now a little fun then back to are storm
1. Instead of milk and cookies, leave him a salad, and a note explaining that you think he could stand to lose a few pounds.
2. While he's in the house, go find his sleigh and write him a speeding ticket.
3. Leave him a note, explaining that you've gone away for the holidays. Ask if he would mind watering your plants.
4. While he's in the house, replace all his reindeer with exact replicas. Then wait and see what happens when he tries to get them to fly.
5. Keep an angry bull in your living room. If you think a bull goes crazy when he sees a little red cape, wait until he sees that big, red Santa suit!
6. Build an army of mean-looking snowmen on the roof, holding signs that say "We hate Christmas," and "Go away Santa."
7. Leave a note by the telephone, telling Santa that Mrs. Claus called and wanted to remind him to pick up some milk and a loaf of bread on his way home.
8. Throw a surprise party for Santa when he comes down the chimney. Refuse to let him leave until the strippers arrive.
9. While he's in the house, find the sleigh and sit in it. As soon as he comes back and sees you, tell him that he shouldn't have missed that last payment, and take off.
10. Leave a plate filled with cookies and a glass of milk out, with a note that says, "For The Tooth Fairy. :)" Leave another plate out with half a stale cookie and a few drops of skim milk in a dirty glass with a note that says, "For Santa. :("
11. Take everything out of your house as if it's just been robbed. When Santa arrives, show up dressed like a policeman and say, "Well, well. They always return to the scene of the crime."
12. Leave out a copy of your Christmas list with last-minute changes and corrections.
13. While he's in the house, cover the top of the chimney with barbed wire.
14. Leave lots of hunting trophies and guns out where Santa's sure to see them. Go outside, yell, "Ooh! Look! A deer! And he's got a red nose!" and fire a gun.
15. Leave Santa a note, explaining that you've moved. Include a map with unclear and hard-to-read directions to your new house.
16. Set a bear trap at the bottom of the chimney. Wait for Santa to get caught in it, and then explain that you're sorry, but from a distance, he looked like a bear.
17. Leave out a Santa suit, with an attached dry-cleaning bill.
18. Paint "hoof-prints" all over your face and clothes. While he's in the house, go out on the roof. When he comes back up, act like you've been "trampled." Threaten to sue for personal injury.
19. Instead of ornaments, decorate your tree with Easter eggs.
20. Dress up like the Easter Bunny. Wait for Santa to come and then say, "This neighborhood ain't big enough for the both of us.
from here
Link
WOW now thats snow falling
yes it sould be there soon
may be next year buzz sould have a new game call when will we see are 1st Blizzard and when and how march and see oh the winner would be that would be a fun game
and no i dont live on the E Coast i leve of the W coast
Yeah that's what I think however the precip shield is expanding over Southeastern Virginia so I don't know if that will rotate this way.
19 14:53 N 8 0.25 Heavy Snow VV003 27 21 29.68 1006.7
19 13:53 N 9 0.25 Heavy Snow VV004 27 21 29.68 1006.9
19 12:53 N 9 0.25 Heavy Snow VV004 26 21 26 24 29.69 1007.1
19 11:53 NW 7 0.25 Heavy Snow VV003 26 20 29.71 1008.0
19 10:53 N 12 0.25 Heavy Snow VV003 25 20 29.72 1008.2
19 09:53 N 8 0.25 Heavy Snow VV002 25 19 29.74 1008.7
19 08:53 N 13 0.50 Snow VV006 24 19 29.74 1008.9
19 07:53 N 14 0.25 Heavy Snow VV003 25 19 29.72 1008.2
19 06:53 N 7 0.50 Snow VV003 25 20 27 25 29.76 1009.6
19 05:53 N 8 0.25 Heavy Snow
1000
It is really snowing now and it is sticking to the grass
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