Unsettled weather ahead...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:01 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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I find myself often asked by many, "Why do you like the weather?" Of course one would think it is a simple question with a simple answer as something like because of "tornadoes and hurricanes." But my passion for the weather is far beyond the instances of severe weather and destruction. I cannot pinpoint a day, time, of year where I developed an interest for the atmosphere, climate, and weather, but since elementary school I have been the go to person for checking the weather. Like many sciences, meteorology is a growing field with a wealth of knowledge yet to be gained and understood. In fact the advent of technology such as the media and internet have brought about radical changes in forecasting just in the past decade. And now in an ever important decade focused on climate change, the weather is a growing and developing topic for many. It is often thought of as a converstation starter and is discussed by everyone. I can remember watching the 2003 President's Day snowstorm interviews on The Weather Channel with Paul Kocin. I can remember the exact snowfall forecast map with 2ft+ progged for central Pennsylvania. And yes I can remember as a mere toddler pulling my sled along the massive snow 'walls' from the snowplow after the January of 96' blizzard. And now as my adventure slings towards college and soon real world job application in my field, I find it ever important to not only understand the basis of the atmosphere, but to apply it to new theories. A scientific field cannot grow without research and development and more theological applications. Meteorology is the understanding of the science and application to using the knowledge to the benefit of the general public's wellfare. I was even asked many times, "Why do you not want to use your intelligence to be a doctor or lawyer?" Most of the times unfortunately, people often equivalent meteorology to the weatherman on TV. But atmospheric sciences is a difficult field that actually benefits society in many ways beyond the simple weatherman/green screen. It is a science based on calculus equations and physics theorys. In the end, I know how fortunate I have been. To be able to reach a lifelong passion at a young age is a often jealous and fortunate attribute. There is certainly no hesistation in "What do you want to be when you grow up?"

A common occurence in the typical Middle Atlantic summer... Two week long dry period then followed by a month's worth of rain in a short period of time. This is the definitive catalyst for flash flooding with the common season being Summer. The common setup... stalled front, increasing PWATs aloft enhanced by tropical moisture, and wave of low pressure along quasi-stationary boundary. Combine these dynamics with surface instability and boom... you have slow moving thunderstorms with an abundance of moisture. FFG remains about normal, with higher numbers in western Pennsylvania.

But despite what FFG shows, 3in of rain in less than an hour is going to cause problems wherever. KCXY reported 3.01in of rain in one hour on August 12, 2010 from a collection of slow moving thunderstorms associated with an MCV. For more information on the flash flood event... Link. The upcoming week will feature a period of unsettled weather across the entire northern Middle Atlantic. High pressure located over the southern Canadian maritimes a weak southeast ridging will create a squeeze play for a slow moving front to stall near and just to the south of the I-81 corridor. Anomalous moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico courtesy of the remnants of the recent tropical depression will set up the catalyst for an abundance of showers and thunderstorms daily along the quasi-stationary boundary. This puts the southern half of Pennsylvania and all of Maryland and Delaware at risk for unsettled weather from Sunday through Friday. The ECMWF will score high on verification charts, highlighting this threat for nearly a week. In fact in correlation with a few convective feedback errors, at one point ECMWF runs were printing our nearly 3-5in of rain for the upcoming week over eastern portions of the northern Middle Atlantic. While everyday will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, not all areas will receieve rain. In fact there may be areas that receive little to no rain this week, while others see an additional 3in or so. So the typical forecast will suffice each day this week...

Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Storms may be produce heavy rain. Highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Any breaks in the clouds should be enough in the thermodyamic field to produce some SBCAPE along with tapping the shearing winds aloft enough to produce a wet microburst or two. Isolated severe weather will be a threat each day with the highest threat on Monday.

Difficult but simple forecast essentially for the following week. At least temperatures will remain normal to below normal extinguishing at least the heat wave threat for now. Alright the rest of the blog will be a bit of a rant I need to get off my chest... Every morning I follow a simple routine, shower then read the newspaper. I am always a bit surprised in the editorial section with articles on climate change. While I find it great people are taking an interest in protecting the unique planet of Earth, it is easier said than done. The May through August time period has been dominated by lag effects from one of the strongest El Ninos on record. ENSO lag effects often occur months later despite shifts in SST anomalies; meaning despite current La Nina characteristics, the boundary layer atmosphere remains having the effects from the El Nino several months ago. A quick basis in the ENSO knowledge data base quickly advects the idea of warmer than normal surface temperatures globally. In fact the 1998 El Nino correlated with some of the warmest temperatures globally on record. Then as the El Nino diminished, so did Earth's temperatures resulting a decade of slightly cooler temperatures 2000-2010. Anti-anthropogenic global warming advocates are quickly to announce cooling, but take away 98' and essentially there has not been much cooling or warming in the past decade. 2010 will be up there in terms of warmest years on record globally, but it is another anomaly. The excuse that the Moscow droughts and heatwaves are correlated with global warming, just does not have enough evidence. It would be the same for me to gesture the anomalous snowfall on the east coast in the United States is evidence global warming does not exist. Short term weather disasters provide very little evidence for either arguement. It is irrelevant to argue the anomalous weather in 2010 is evidence of anything other than a tumultuous habitat of planet Earth that date centuries before.

While yes we can change our lightbulbs to CFLs, or buy a hybrid car, but how much of a difference is that going to make. Lag effects in stratospheric temperatures have been proven to date nearly 50-100 years; meaning whatever effects CO2 levels currently is having on the Earth, we will not see for many years. Yes I think it is important for climatological awareness, but more public knowledge is necessary before blanket statements are juxtaposed.

Regional updating radar...


"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 11
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 17

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 3
Flood Warnings- 2
Monthly Precipitation- 3.58inches
Yearly Precipitation- 25.88inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 31
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

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107. P451
9:55 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Getting another moderate shower now.

What was very impressive and seemed destined to rake the entire state has split into two with one half surging NE into northern NJ - and the second heading eastward.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
106. goofyrider
9:54 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Spring Lake

Early pm storms were intense dropped about 0.4 to 0.3 in
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105. originalLT
9:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
So far by me, 0.97". Again I'm just missing the really heavy cells that are moving NE, they are passing to my NW.
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104. Zachary Labe
8:47 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
0.65in of rain so far today now.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
103. P451
7:56 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 343 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CHESTER...
OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILMINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
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102. P451
7:55 PM GMT on August 22, 2010



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NJ...SERN NY...AND SWRN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221919Z - 222015Z

POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS POSING A THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF NJ...SERN NY AND SWRN CT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL/LIMITED NATURE OF THE
THREAT...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 17-18Z PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN
PA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN NJ AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW INTO VA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE AND
STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ALONG AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH IS LIMITING LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING.
HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER S OF THE FRONT IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 F OVER NJ...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J PER KG/. SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS ARE OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY MOVING E-NEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO NJ...WITH ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WARM FRONT OVER SERN NY. GIVEN
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES DISPLAYED IN AREA VWP
DATA...CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AOA 200 M2 S-2...A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...POSING A THREAT FOR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE RATE AND INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT...THE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..GARNER.. 08/22/2010


ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
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101. P451
6:13 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Two good downpours here in TF, NJ.

And the villagers rejoice.

Now looking at that developing line out by the PA/NJ border. Looks pretty strong. Could end up with a big storm today.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
100. pittsburghnurse
4:08 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting P451:
Thanks, nurse.

I seem to be doing better. The leg swelling is way down now and the hand is coming along.

I think I'm in the clear.

Been almost 24 hours now.

Don't feel anything else going on either.


That is all good news. Glad to hear it.
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99. originalLT
3:23 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
I've been just missing some of the heavier showers this morning, as they have been passing off to my NW, as they rotate around the main low which seems to be centered SW of Syracuse NY. It has a big precip. area. LT Stamford CT.
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98. P451
3:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Rain seems to be on the way given Delaware's radar presentation.

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97. P451
3:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Thanks, nurse.

I seem to be doing better. The leg swelling is way down now and the hand is coming along.

I think I'm in the clear.

Been almost 24 hours now.

Don't feel anything else going on either.
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96. originalLT
2:12 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Same here Blizz, I have 0.60" so far, with more to come.
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95. Zachary Labe
1:29 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
0.60in of rain so far today.
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94. pittsburghnurse
12:12 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting P451:
Thanks everyone. Yeah, it hurts. Pretty foggy this am for certain. Got the jitters. Stinging has subsided but the hand and calf are awfully swollen.

Going to take it easy today.

Kept the morning walk at just a half mile and at a slower pace this morning. Don't want to be pushing it.

But generally feel alright.


--0-

Meanwhile, got a quick shower this morning. Very humid out there. Seems a good chance for rain today although the best shot as you see is for the hudson valley region stretching westward. They could get 3 inches in some cases.

I look poised for about .5-1.0 depending on what lines up with me.

Yet finally it would seem we will get an actual good soaking rain.

*crosses fingers* ...well, at least the ones on my right hand. lol


P, here comes the nurse in me. You may want to contact the dr. You may need an epi injection and/or some corticosteroids to calm down the reaction. That's a hefty number of stings you got.

Hope you get your rain. We had plenty here in Pittsburgh during the night. Looks like a comfortable week ahead for us, close to seasonal values.
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93. P451
11:09 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Thanks everyone. Yeah, it hurts. Pretty foggy this am for certain. Got the jitters. Stinging has subsided but the hand and calf are awfully swollen.

Going to take it easy today.

Kept the morning walk at just a half mile and at a slower pace this morning. Don't want to be pushing it.

But generally feel alright.


--0-

Meanwhile, got a quick shower this morning. Very humid out there. Seems a good chance for rain today although the best shot as you see is for the hudson valley region stretching westward. They could get 3 inches in some cases.

I look poised for about .5-1.0 depending on what lines up with me.

Yet finally it would seem we will get an actual good soaking rain.

*crosses fingers* ...well, at least the ones on my right hand. lol
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92. originalLT
3:09 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Blizz, I found a one page question and answer paper from NOAA on La Ninia and El Nino which explains it pretty well. the site is.. www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html
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91. pittsburghnurse
12:58 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting P451:
Despite the trends I am more confident that we're all going to get it pretty good tomorrow.


Meanwhile gardening is just about done. Still getting Grape/Cherry tomatoes, some peppers, stringbeans still comeing about.

Everything else is done though.

Big tomatoes I chose a dozen that I thought had a chance and cut the plants down to them.


Off topic...; had a cousin ask me to spray some plants. Long story short I happened upon and underground yellow jacket nest. Apparently they don't like miracle grow.

Got stung 10-20 times.

If those were "real" bees I wouldn't be talking to yas. Takes about 3-4 "real" bee stings and I'm in a box.

:/

Doped up on benadryl. Trying to stay awake so I dont end up napping now and waking up at 2am.

Talk about scary. Suddenly covered in the things and while I'm ripping then off of me I'm thinking... IM DONE.

Cause, if they WERE "real" bees, I would have been.

:/

Thank god they were just the ground dwelling yellow jackets.



Oh you must be awfully sore. You are probably in la la land from the benadryl. I feel for you. Feel better.
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90. Zachary Labe
12:42 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
originalLT- Hmmm, I have always thought the exact opposite. O well, haha. I mean no one was forecasting this dramatic switch to La Nina, and if you look back at La Nina years, the tropics were always quiet for the most part.

TheRasberryPatch- Looks like overnight through the morning. Monday may feature a good chance all day.

P451- O dear, that sounds terrible. Well take a rest...
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89. originalLT
9:17 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Take care P451, I'm glad you are generally OK. I know they are not "Real Bees", BUT they are in the wasp family, and they do hurt, especially 10-20 stings.
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88. P451
8:56 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Despite the trends I am more confident that we're all going to get it pretty good tomorrow.


Meanwhile gardening is just about done. Still getting Grape/Cherry tomatoes, some peppers, stringbeans still comeing about.

Everything else is done though.

Big tomatoes I chose a dozen that I thought had a chance and cut the plants down to them.


Off topic...; had a cousin ask me to spray some plants. Long story short I happened upon and underground yellow jacket nest. Apparently they don't like miracle grow.

Got stung 10-20 times.

If those were "real" bees I wouldn't be talking to yas. Takes about 3-4 "real" bee stings and I'm in a box.

:/

Doped up on benadryl. Trying to stay awake so I dont end up napping now and waking up at 2am.

Talk about scary. Suddenly covered in the things and while I'm ripping then off of me I'm thinking... IM DONE.

Cause, if they WERE "real" bees, I would have been.

:/

Thank god they were just the ground dwelling yellow jackets.

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87. TheRasberryPatch
8:29 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Blizz - when will the rain come into the area and for how long?
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86. originalLT
7:24 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Blizz, I'm pretty sure, from checking Dr. M's blog and Storm W, that they and all the experts thought that transitioning from a strong El Nino to a moderate or strong La nina would lead to an increase in tropical activity, due in main part to a lessening of wind sheer. Obviously, something else is at play that is keeping down the number of tropical cyclones that have formed so far this year. Saharen dust? etc. Must be other stuff too.
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85. Zachary Labe
7:16 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Blizz please clarfy for me, I thought or was led to believe that a strong El Nino is associated with low tropical activity. So a strong La Nina will do the same thing? A more nuetral set-up is more conducive for tropical developement?( The El nino leads to more wind sheer etc.)

I thought it was La Nina. One major factor that they were calling for an active tropical season was the El Nino ENSO status. But honestly I am not certain and I claim limited knowledge in the tropical field.
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84. originalLT
6:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Blizz please clarfy for me, I thought or was led to believe that a strong El Nino is associated with low tropical activity. So a strong La Nina will do the same thing? A more nuetral set-up is more conducive for tropical developement?( The El nino leads to more wind sheer etc.)
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83. Zachary Labe
6:16 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
originalLT- Yep they are all self-updating. Unfortunately though that means some images of storms are lost unless I save them to imageshack or something like that.

NYCvort- Thanks! That is likely; many people did not expect this sudden swing to La Nina status. And La Ninas are associated with low activity in the tropics.
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82. NYCvort
4:08 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Great read. Blizz, do you think that ENSO lag effects are responsible for the sheared Atlantic and underachieving hurricane season thus far?
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81. originalLT
3:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Blizz, as an experiment, I went back to your June 2010 postings, and checked the graphics that you had posted back then . They continue to up-date! The radar is current, and the northeast Vis. sat. photo is current too! Kind of interesting it does that.The other graphics are up to date too.
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80. Zachary Labe
2:13 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Good morning, just looked at the Atlantic Vis. Sat. photo, everything still looks so "linear" in appearence, nothing circular, but they still have just made that area South of the Cape Verde Islands an invest. Also in Dr. M's blog they are mentioning some possible storm that may form off the SC/NC coast and affect us in the next few days. A Barclonic low most likely,Blizz, do you see this?

Yep, this low should affect us Sunday through Monday with a chane of rain.
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79. originalLT
1:49 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Good morning, just looked at the Atlantic Vis. Sat. photo, everything still looks so "linear" in appearence, nothing circular, but they still have just made that area South of the Cape Verde Islands an invest. Also in Dr. M's blog they are mentioning some possible storm that may form off the SC/NC coast and affect us in the next few days. A Barclonic low most likely,Blizz, do you see this?
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78. P451
12:33 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

Boy those tropical hurricane forecasts look like they will really fail. We still have a bit too go, but considering how active the forecasts said it would be, this is a disaster in their spectrum.


That is why they also didn't even really forecast the season.

14-23 storms? That's not a forecast that's a "We don't know what is going to happen." throw at a dartboard guessing game.

It's funny how people will look at two or three simple elements and come to a conclusion from it. The planet, the weather, you're talking hundreds of factos involved. HUNDREDS.

Warm water? Yes. La Nina? Yes. ... Conclusion? 23 storms! We're all going to die!

Fact? Who needs facts?


Also the reliance on computer models is a big failure. What happened to good old senses when it comes to forecasting weather? What happened to that?

You read Dr. M's blog and you will see people posting 384 hour models and throwing their full faith into them. I mean, you GOT to be KIDDING ME.


But, well, it's not about the numbers, it's about the fact that at some point there will be a 10 day window of prime atmospheric conditions out there and when a system does form? Then it does have quite a lot of fuel to work with - and that fuel extends right to the coastlines.

So we're looking at a chance for an Andrew, a Camille, a Mitch, a Gilbert. Storms that blew up when they hit that ripe water and kept intensity right to landfall.

Unlike say Katrina, Rita, Opal.... storms that blew up but then rapidly weakened when they reached land. Now while all 3 storms were devastating the fact remains that as they neared land they did indeed rapidly weaken.

I see the chance for a monster storm to remain a cat4 or 5 as it makes landfall this year.

To me that is more important than keeping track of numbers.

..............

Meanwhile, barely got a few showers from that last system. Again left high and dry. Whatever this dynamic is - it is deeply rooted over central NJ that is for sure.

It will eventually break of course and when it does it will probably be pretty impressive.


Lastly, calling for low 60s tonight. Although, they called for mid 60s last night and it never dropped below 70 here and it got real humid out of nowhere around 8pm last night.

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77. TheRasberryPatch
12:21 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Blizz - I am playing in a golf tournament this weekend....late Saturday morning into the afternoon and Sunday morning. From looking at WU forecast there may be some winds 5-10mph Saturday and stronger on Sunday. What do you think?

as far as the tropics - i've seen many times to have a very quiet period and then September hits. so don't be concerned with what hasn't happened. i'd wait to talk about the tropics when November or December rolls around.
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76. TheF1Man
4:28 AM GMT on August 20, 2010
LT they seem almost desperate to have a storm( as horrible as that sounds) just to keep some reputation. It's funny how TWC has to write stories on their site about past hurricanes to remind people of the destruction. you could say the're trying to keep people informed, but sadly its all about tv ratings these days. just my opinion.

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75. originalLT
4:22 AM GMT on August 20, 2010
Blizz,boy you are sure right about the tropics, at least so far. Now they keep hinting the season will get busy soon and run very actively into deep October. Of course we'll see. If it doesn't verify, it will be interesting to hear the excuses or explanations from the Tropical Experts! Zotty you are right too, the tropics look so quiet for late August( although maybe something is now trying to form off the African coast).
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74. Zachary Labe
11:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting zotty:
just looked at the tropics- how often can one look at that page in late August and see ZERO storms. that is probably global warming at work, too.

Boy those tropical hurricane forecasts look like they will really fail. We still have a bit too go, but considering how active the forecasts said it would be, this is a disaster in their spectrum.
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73. weathergeek5
9:58 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting P451:
Drips and drops, fellas, drips and drops.

I should have expected as much.


I'm sure to pay for this. Probably in the form of a strong coastal riding tropical system that then drops a foot of rain, devastating coastal flooding, etc...

Weather has been quite off the norm the past few years to be certain.

While my region is always a place of extremes this is way out of bounds.

Well, back to watering everything until the county tells us no more (I expect that soon enough).



Nothing in between just extremes it seems to be what happens lately.
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72. zotty
9:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
just looked at the tropics- how often can one look at that page in late August and see ZERO storms. that is probably global warming at work, too.
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71. Zachary Labe
4:55 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
*New blog likely coming out tomorrow or so.
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70. P451
5:50 AM GMT on August 19, 2010
Drips and drops, fellas, drips and drops.

I should have expected as much.


I'm sure to pay for this. Probably in the form of a strong coastal riding tropical system that then drops a foot of rain, devastating coastal flooding, etc...

Weather has been quite off the norm the past few years to be certain.

While my region is always a place of extremes this is way out of bounds.

Well, back to watering everything until the county tells us no more (I expect that soon enough).

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69. TheRasberryPatch
10:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2010
same here Blizz....it looks like the rain didn't get to my area this week...i just hope the weekend will be sunny and warm
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68. Zachary Labe
10:42 PM GMT on August 18, 2010
Dry day up here with just a drop or two of rain.
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67. originalLT
9:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2010
TheF1Man, first hi, second,it does seem just like what we faced in southern CT. in the winter!
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66. P451
5:09 PM GMT on August 18, 2010
The one in Northern VA seems like it may.

Hard to tell because the first shield has actually been squeezed further south and has been pushing more easterly over time.

Will the second shield do that as well? Not sure.

Does seem we have a better chance to pick up the second shot of rain though.
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65. TheF1Man
4:36 PM GMT on August 18, 2010
Yep Blizz LT has is right, i'm in the bridgeport/trumbull area.

P451 i understand your frustration with the rain shield as that's what i had during the winter! I wonder if that second wave of rain will push up northward enough for you?
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64. P451
12:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2010
Well... is there a chance I get at least something today? Maybe but I am missing out on those 1-2 inch totals that southern NJ down into MD are getting/have gotten. Maybe I get lucky and get .25 or so. Not holding my breath.

Red line is the extent of the shield. Everything else should be readily understandable on the following image.




What is it with my county and especially my town being largely left out of any single rain/storm event is beyond comprehension at this point.

Large shields of rain? Either scoot just the south as it's doing today or just to the north.

Big storms? Either die just west of me or slide just south or north of me.

We're talking miles here folks.

Incidentally, those same miles had me getting pounded with snow while surrounding areas both north and south didn't in certain storms.

Whatever the dynamic has been it's been going on since December. It's just that it completely flip-flopped once late March rolled around.

*shrug*
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
63. P451
11:47 AM GMT on August 18, 2010
Ack. You gotta be kidding me. Looking at the radar this am the shield has made it to roughly my county line to the south and appears to have no desire to move any further northward now.

:/



Gotta agree with you Blizz on the poor foliage this coming fall. Not enough rain and it'll be too warm to cause the colors to change vibrantly.

I think it's going to remain warm through October. Just has that look to it.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
62. TheRasberryPatch
11:44 AM GMT on August 18, 2010
Blizz - I was thinking similar about tree foliage last week. When we had those 100 degree days I saw a few of my trees stressed big time. I have a dogwood that lost 1/3 of its leaves and the ones that are left on have 1/4 of its surface brown. Another tree dropped most of its leaves. I bet throughout the area it's like that with the trees and bushes. Still though there are a lot of trees that don't look as stressed. I guess it's a wait and see.

Looks like the rain passed to our south.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6263
61. originalLT
3:48 AM GMT on August 18, 2010
Blizz, I think TheF1Man is 20-30 miles, ENE of me, near the Bridgeport CT. area.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7863
60. Zachary Labe
2:17 AM GMT on August 18, 2010
TheF1Man- Tight precipitation gradient. In fact it is extremely reminsent of this past winter. Keep an eye on the radar tomorrow. Where is your exact location again?

wxgeek723- Thanks! Not too sure on the Fall yet; I will release my thoughts in a week or two. But Fall foliage I expect to be a terrible year considering the warmth and widespread dry weather. Even if we get a widespread tropical deluge, I think it is too late. Many trees are alreay seeing signs of stress. Colors will likely be dull this year in the Middle Atlantic.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
59. wxgeek723
1:50 AM GMT on August 18, 2010
Quoting P451:
Looking at radar presentation this evening of the weather to our south and it's progression I'm feeling confident a lot of us will be getting rain tomorrow afternoon. Especially those of us who have watched storm after storm die on our doorsteps.

Tomorrow seems like a much higher chance that does not happen.


P451, that's good to hear. I can relate when it comes to the recent dryness. I mowed my lawn today and around half of it is yellow-brown, and has been that way since June. The only real significant rain totals we've had this summer have come from a severe thunderstorm on June 24 and the July 13-14 system. The storms on July 25 and August 11 predominantly eluded me.

Out of curiosity, how far are you from the ocean and the Parkway? Just trying to get an idea of where you're at.

Anyway, great entry as is usually the case Blizz. I guess for people interested in meteorology, climate change can be grouped with politics and religion as topics that should not be debated due to the following controversy, lol. I can relate to what you're saying in the top as well. Before, people have asked me why I don't want to be an engineer or biologist since I do have a keen interest in those topics. Still, meteorology far surpasses them on the list.

What are your thoughts on Fall? Prolonged warmth and delayed foliage?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3683
58. TheF1Man
1:19 AM GMT on August 18, 2010
Has the forecast changed since yesterday? that QPF had me at least getting an inch but now looking at the forecast from TWC i'm getting 0-a trace?

either way it won't make a dent in the deficet
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
57. P451
12:35 AM GMT on August 18, 2010
Looking at radar presentation this evening of the weather to our south and it's progression I'm feeling confident a lot of us will be getting rain tomorrow afternoon. Especially those of us who have watched storm after storm die on our doorsteps.

Tomorrow seems like a much higher chance that does not happen.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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