Widespread Winter Storm; January 11-12...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:29 PM GMT on January 09, 2011

Share this Blog
2
+

Thoughts on January 11-12 Snowstorm...
A 1008mb low pressure is developing off the coast of Texas spreading of plethora of moisture northward along the Gulf Coast states. The low is courtesy of a deep trough sinking south towards the middle of the nation with an accompained strong 500mb low. With the trough axis being situated relatively far west, a low pressure will develop along a weak jet streak towards Missouri and slowly move northward. This low pressure will weaken and shear apart the Gulf of Mexico low pressure. Both lows will begin to lift northeastward with moisturing favoring the primary low and coastal low near Georgia. In between a dry slot will affect parts of the central Appalachians with moisture less than .15in. As the double barrel low complex continues to progress, the primary low over the Ohio valley will begin to weak and shear apart courtesy of significant blocking across northern Canada with a near record low Arctic Oscillation and negative NAO. This will begin an energy transfer restrengthening the coastal low. The timing of this transfer of energy remains highly uncertain at this point and will be very important to the evolution of this system as it traverses up the coastline with a heavy snowstorm across New England.

By Tuesday morning widespread light snow will begin across the Middle Atlantic reaching the Mason-Dixon line. Snow will be relatively light with rates only about .25in per hour as model QPF suggests less than .25in south of the Mason-Dixon line as this region will essentially be in a dry slot. As the coastal low continues to develop, the precipitation shield will begin to intensify from the Mason-Dixon line on northward with moderate snow by early afternoon as far north as the Mason-Dixon line in a widespread manner with rates around .5in per hour. Given the retreating high over Canada, the system will be a relatively quick mover. Current high resolution model guidance shows excellent dendritic growth over much of Pennsylvania west the New Jersey/Pennsylvania border coinciding with H85 thermals below -6C. This will allow favorable snow ratios of 15:1 or slightly higher over central and western Pennsylvania. Current QPF for the state of Pennsylvania through Tuesday night will be around .25-.4in from the overrunning, warm air advection precipitation.

By Tuesday night the low will begin to rapidly intensify off the coast throw a strong CCB across parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New York. Favorable dendritic growth accompanied by enhanced frontogenesis will allow snow rates to increase to 1in/hr especially northeast of Trenton, New Jersey. The low will rapidly intensify to +-992mb by Wednesday morning with heavy snow across much of New England with several enhanced mesoscale bands. A tight pressure gradient will also allow surface winds to increase to 35mph+ gusts along the coast courtesy of a 50knot+ low level jet mixing occasionally down to the surface in heavy precipitation. The low will continue to move northeast with storm total QPF in excess of 1in from just northeast of New York City up through much of New England. Orographic lift across the Berkshires up through the Presidentials will enhance snowfall with storm totals upwards of 14in across the favored upslope regions. Given the relatively fast movement of the storm, snow totals should remain below 18in for all areas.

Many questions remain on the exact track and intensity of the low along with the question of timing on the transfer of energy. But the above summary gives a general basis to the evolution of the storm system. Expect more updates coming tomorrow.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
Salisbury, Maryland - Georgetown, Delaware - Atlantic City, New Jersey - Islip, Long Island - Nantucket, Massachusetts

*Note west of this line will stay all snow for the entire duration of the storm. Along the line the snow will vary to sleet and perhaps rain for a point. But given the rapid cyclogensis the coastal low will undergo, most all areas even along the rainn/snow line will receive large snowfall accumulations especially as one moves north of Atlantic City.

Storm Reports...
STAY TUNED!

Storm Impacts...
1. Widespread snow accumulations in excess of 1in from Georgia to Maine.
2. Gusty winds as low pressure bombs out off of Long Island with gusts exceeding 35mph within 50mi of the Atlantic coast.
3. Heavy snow accumulations of 12in+ in parts of New England.
4. Embedded snow bands from New York City on northeastward with 2-3in/hr rates.
5. Very cold temperatures west of I-95 barely rising out of the low to mid 20s during the bulk of the snow accumulation.

Snow Map...

The more difficult locations for the forecast include central Pennsylvania and northern parts of New England across northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. These areas have the highest bust potential in this storm.

Selected City Snowfall Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Light to moderate snow; 1-3in
Baltimore, MD- Moderate snow at times; 2-5in
Salisbury, MD- Wet snow and sleet mix; 1-4in
Washington, DC- Light to moderate snow; 1-4in
Wilmington, DE- Moderate snow, heavy at times; 4-8in
Dover, DE- Moderate snow; 3-7in
Trenton, NJ- Moderate to heavy snow; 5-10in
Pittsburgh, PA- Moderate snow; 2-5in
State College, PA- Light to moderate snow; 1-4in
Harrisburg, PA- Moderate snow; 2-6in
Philadelphia, PA- Moderate to heavy snow; 5-9in
Scranton, PA- Moderate snow; 3-6in
New York City, NY- Heavy snow; 6-12in, locally more
Poughkeepsie, NY- Moderate to heavy snow; 4-8in
Binghamton, NY- Moderate snow; 3-6in
Albany, NY- Moderate to heavy snow at times; 3-7in
Hartford, CT- Heavy snow; 10-15in
New London, CT- Heavy snow; 10-15in
Concord, NH- Moderate to heavy snow; 6-12in
Providence, RI- Heavy blowing snow; 10-16in
Worcester, MA- Heavy snow; 12-16in
Boston, MA- Heavy snow, windy at times; 8-14in
Nantucket, MA- Heavy snow mixing with sleet at times, windy; 4-9in
Hyannis, MA- Heavy snow, windy with drifting snow; 7-13in
Portland, ME- Heavy snow; 6-12in
Bangor, ME- Moderate to heavy snow; 4-9in
"Final Forecast Above"

Model Analysis
A very dynamic storm setup is creating model chaos with polarizing views dependent on the models. The high resolution models including the NAM, NMM, and ARW are indicating this storm becoming a bit more amplified allowing for a further west track. This allows the low to intensify quicker with heavier precipitation. Several mesoscale boundaries are being indicated especially towards southern New England particularily just northwest of New York City with an increased area of upward vertical velocities are present based on the NAM 700mb. The mesoscale boundaries will feature the heaviest snow rates accompanied by the best dendritic growth with hourly rates up to 2in per hour. Current GFS/NAM combination indicates a deep area of frontogenic forcing with an embedded CCB band across central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. Further south, the less dynamics will be available especially south of New York City with a weaker portion of the deformation band. The overrunning precipitation associated with the primary low over Ohio will spread light to moderate snows developing from Washington DC northward stretching from Columbus, OH to Reading, PA. Shortly, HIRES NMM simulated radar indicates a collapsing precipitation shield as energy is transferred off the coast. The simulated radar shows a large strengthening deformation band from about Harrisburg on eastward quickly moving north and east. The GFS and NAM differ on the strength of this axis as for QPF placement. Again the mesoscale, high resolution models show significantly more precipitation than the operational models of the GFS, ECMWF, and GGEM. Now the mesoscale models have a precipitation wet bias, but still the differences are quite significant in QPF in when taking in account the wet bias. The H5 charts are quite similar on all the guidance, but the surface plots differ. Given the general theme of declining QPF in antecedent runs leading up to the event, I am actually using GFS/ECMWF QPF has my primary blend. While yes the mesoscale models are quite wetter along with the SREF blend, the recent poor model QPF performance leads me to blend a bit conservative at this point. Considerable questions remain to where the dry slot occurs in Pennsylvania and how far north the heavy precipitation gets across northern New England. These nuisances will likely only be discovered upon actual evaluation of the radar. For further reference, after tracking the RUC QPF during the December 26 storm, I found it to be highly inaccurate. Overall QPF performance has been very poor recently, so I am sticking with the low QPF blend.

After the storm...
As the low pressure zips northeast out of the region, an anticyclonic flow will resume with a bit of lake effect snow. The air mass left in its wake will be very dry likely preventing a widespread lake effect snow outbreak. The flow also favors a northerly trajectory, keeping a hold on the lake effect machine. A few areas downwind of the lakes in the Syracuse-Finger Lake belt may receive a quick 3-6in in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. Further south across Maryland and Pennsylvania the snow belts will likely get a minimal 1-5in including the Laurel Highlands. A weak disturbance will move across the area Friday with some light snow showers and flurries across the Northeast especially towards New York state. Little to no snow accumulation is likely. A very strong high pressure, 1038mb, will slowly move east out of the middle of the nation bringing clearing skies across the entire region towards Saturday. This high pressure will center itself across the Middle Atlantic likely bringing some radiational cooling Saturday night for one of the coldest nights of the winter. With a widespread snow cover over the entire east coast coupled with a below normal trough and low dewpoints, lows below zero are likely in the colder spots near Bradford, Pennsylvania and up across northern New York state along with parts of Maine. High temperatures much of the week will be around (-3)-(-7)F below normal for the entire Northeast, but especially for those with a solid snow pack. By Sunday, things begin to get interesting as a -3SD trough moves south over the Northern Plains with H85 thermals near -25C accompanied by a 1038mb high pressure. Lows over the Midwest may drop to near -20F or so in some areas across the north country. This arctic front will center itself across the Mississippi Valley along the steep temperature contrast. A low pressure will develop along the front, but it remains uncertain with regards to the track. In any case it is likely some light snow will exist along the arctic front as it cross through the Northeast with several heavy squalls given what appears a decent WINDEX event. The low pressure over the mouth of the Mississippi will just play another role. The ECMWF delays this arctic air mass a bit later in the week, so the long range definitely remains uncertain post Saturday, January 15. Following that I am expecting a slight rebound in temperatures to close the month of January with slightly above normal temperatures as the pattern reloads. The key word there is reloads. Current wavelengths support another wintry blast for an above normal snowfall February. At this point if this forecast holds, most all winter predictions will completely bust. As we say last year, an anomalous -AO will dominate despite whatever the ENSO conditions.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Please take an opportunity to vote in the new poll!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 6in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 7.75
Seasonal Total- 8.35in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 24.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 12.8F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

January Snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
Dawn arises on a wintry landscape full of mystery and solitude.
January Snowstorm...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1125 - 1075

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

GW is a touchy subject, a hot button issue, I say let's drop it from Blizz's Blog, so we all can get along. Go to the Doc's blog for that stuff. Just sayin.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
TT - throughout Earth's history there has been climate change. This is nothing new. But to blame humans for climate change is just a theory that is at best skeptical. No matter what you say here you will not change peoples minds.

How did we get rid of all the ice from past ice ages? how about England back about 1500 years ago having the best wines in the world only to have the climate change again for France to have them again. and they still have the best climate for the best wines.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6263
Hey P thanks for making the list, it sounds like it's going to be great when its all set and done.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 679
Dr. Jeff Masters, January 13, 2011
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground

He is a master of meteorology! He knows what he's talking about! Masters in every aspect of the earth sciences are watching it happen before their eyes, I don't even care what kind of earth science it is. Atmospheric sciences, Coastal Geography, Climatography, Biogeography, Glaciology, Hydrology, Oceanography just to name a few of many more who are all lining up by the droves to the same inescapable solution.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1121. breald
Quoting TrentonThunder:
All man, you had to start this? Throw away all the data then. Why is the arctic breaking off in enormous chunks? Why are the coral reefs vanishing. There's so much more to add, but that's all the evidence you need son. Stop being blind.


Yep, just use your own two eyes and you will see all need to see. It is scary what is happening. I just don't understand why people say this is ok. It is not ok.

Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Not only that, but add to the fact that we're in the ballpark of the maunder minimums in sunspots, we should be making those record lows look like they're a joke right now. Getting into the single digits every couple of years is nothing. It's the equivelent of hitting 92F every couple years.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
nm
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting P451:


Not really.

One of the guys I targeted, Michael, posted a map from 1917 showing global temperatures - global wide. Really? That's trustworthy? Don't think so.

The good Doctor himself once put up a blog entry and used a map showing global temperature anomalies going back 2,000 years and spoke on it as if thats fact. Again, really? 2,000 years ago? We had global temperature records? Land and Ocean?

Yeah, well... NO.


AGW is a theory and those who believe in it try to pass it off as fact.

That fact they try to pass off is based on suspect data collection.

Just not buying it at all based on those simple thoughts.



Those maps are created from extensive ice corps data that tell you a world of information. It's the DNA of climate. Don't you believe in science?
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
All man, you had to start this? Throw away all the data then. Why is the arctic breaking off in enormous chunks? Why are the coral reefs vanishing. There's so much more damning evidence to add, but that's all the evidence you need son. Stop being blind.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Doesn't look like that below zero stuff is coming by the 20th. If not, add an astonishing 17 straight years above zero here. I was kind of hoping for the below zero stuff.

I do have a question though for anyone who has an answer... If we've been breaking records for negative AO and negative NAO, why are we not shattering record low temperatures? Shouldn't we be seeing some negative teens down here in the coastal plain? The lowest temperature I had last year was a mild 14F and the lowest so far this year only 15F. Records here are generally -5F to -16F. If not breaking daily low temperatures, than why not getting close to or breaking record cold months/winters. In addition, when those features are starkly negative, shouldn't we be suppressing things out to sea? I know not every one should go out to sea, but the 6th Snowmaggedon to dump over 30" in 1 year and less than a month?
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
You can add me to the list: Wilmington De
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CTP...

A GENERAL NWLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK
STORM SYSTEM WITH VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR /-30 TO -40C AT H85/
BUILDING UP OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE IF IT
VERIFIES AS -30 TO -40C AIR AT 850MB HAS BEEN SEEN MUCH OVER THE
LAST 10 YEARS.-- End Changed Discussion --
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
So are we looking at a Apps runner for this next one, or just an east-west solution with some warm air overrunning?

These situations usually result in prolonged mixed bags here, don't they, Blizz? As a result of CAD?

It is very complex and even the track is highly uncertain. The GFS would signal some 2-4in overrunning snow for us and then some icing before some plain rain. ECMWF is drastically different and eliminates the snow with just plain rain for us.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1112. zotty
P- New Rochelle NY for me, please

Norwalk is a tough town?  I guess parts, but South Norwalk is as white bread/ gentrified as it gets.  What town haven't you gotten into trouble in? :)

Thanks for posting those loops.  They are great to see.  
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1111. P451
Quoting Blizzard92:
Next storm still shows some interesting possibilities with the GFS showing some 2-5in snow totals with the overrunning before H85s get above 0C. This would along and above the Mason-Dixon line. Ice is still a threat and this scenario is highly uncertain.

P451- Thanks for the list!


No problem. Hopefully it grows in the coming days and then I'll refine it and then we'll look into making it available in map form.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1110. P451
Quoting breald:


Come on P you are being a little disingenuous don't you think?


Not really.

One of the guys I targeted, Michael, posted a map from 1917 showing global temperatures - global wide. Really? That's trustworthy? Don't think so.

The good Doctor himself once put up a blog entry and used a map showing global temperature anomalies going back 2,000 years and spoke on it as if thats fact. Again, really? 2,000 years ago? We had global temperature records? Land and Ocean?

Yeah, well... NO.


AGW is a theory and those who believe in it try to pass it off as fact.

That fact they try to pass off is based on suspect data collection.

Just not buying it at all based on those simple thoughts.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
So are we looking at a Apps runner for this next one, or just an east-west solution with some warm air overrunning?

These situations usually result in prolonged mixed bags here, don't they, Blizz? As a result of CAD?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
1108. breald
Quoting P451:


Gotcha.



Also to the Doc's blog. Last big storm he touted NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK HAD THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

When clearly it was south of NYC.

Now you see him crowing about heavy snow in Scarborough and posts an image of what 14" of snow at someone's front door?

Hey, Doc, how about using some of the photos submitted of 32"+ from SOUTH OF NEW YORK will ya?

Jeez...the guy just doesn't seem to bother to do his homework some times.

Sure he's a good guy and all but... lay off the Global Warming crap once in a while and pay attention to more important things.

/rant (before I get myself into trouble lol).



Come on P you are being a little disingenuous don't you think?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
1107. GTOSnow
Blizz what are you thinking for the next one in the south of Worcester area?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Next storm still shows some interesting possibilities with the GFS showing some 2-5in snow totals with the overrunning before H85s get above 0C. This would along and above the Mason-Dixon line. Ice is still a threat and this scenario is highly uncertain.

P451- Thanks for the list!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1105. P451
Quoting danielb1023:
Hey P, Please add me.......Roseland, NJ


Gotcha.



Also to the Doc's blog. Last big storm he touted NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK HAD THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

When clearly it was south of NYC.

Now you see him crowing about heavy snow in Scarborough and posts an image of what 14" of snow at someone's front door?

Hey, Doc, how about using some of the photos submitted of 32"+ from SOUTH OF NEW YORK will ya?

Jeez...the guy just doesn't seem to bother to do his homework some times.

Sure he's a good guy and all but... lay off the Global Warming crap once in a while and pay attention to more important things.

/rant (before I get myself into trouble lol).

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Hey P, Please add me.......Roseland, NJ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1103. P451
Quoting wxgeek723:


Ugh. Slush fest :( Back to normal around here...

Meanwhile, Doc's blog is as dramatic as ever. I feel like it's starting to turn into the "Jersey Shore" of weather/climate enthusiasts, hahaha.


Yeah.....and I kinda dropped that little grenade into there and ran. LOL.

Whoops.


Anywho, went back and did the WV imagery of our past event, it really shows better on this, but I made it much shorter. 66 Hours I think...I can't remember how many frames I put into it.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting P451:
Seems to me the key here is the development of a mid-south low energized by the disturbance from the plains. That low tracks west of and then across the Appalachians. The coastal low that seems to pop up off of NC seems to get kicked out to sea (A scenerio that almost played out with our past storm actually, although this coming scenario has much stronger hints of that type of solution).

As of now the official is:

snippet: AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY.




MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE
OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.


So they are showing a changeover but on the models it is clear the precip is off the coast before the cold air comes in.

Again though a bit too early to do anything more than model watch - not putting faith in this solution - however the last storm seems to have hinted that this could be a pattern for a bit here.

Interestingly enough last year right around the third we of January we had an exact scenario unfold! Does anyone remember the 60F 3 inches of heavy rain around that time?

Only to see us dive back into winter afterwards and then get twin bombs on the 6th and 9th?


It's very eerie how similar this pattern is to last winters.

Last winter on I think Dec 19 we had 28". This winter on the 27 we had 30-32"+ Some say 34".

This winter we just got another 8". Last winter I distinctly recall we had just MISSED OUT on such a potential storm a week or so into January.

This winter we're pegged for a warm wet storm in a week - last winter we actually got it.


Talk about....well, you wouldn't say coincidence if it continues to pan out.

Twin winters?

Happened here in 76/77 and again in 77/78. I was just old enough to recall two rough winters. Older relatives say these two consecutive winters remind them of those two years except those two years were EXTREMELY COLD with LESS overall snow.


So then, to ramble on for a bit, as I say you can almost set your watch here that every 6 or 7 years we get hit good and inbetween we get slushy messes and ice storms. Perhaps every 30 years we get the twin winters of doom.

It doesn't quite work though because in the early or mid 50s relatives always talk about consecutive winters' of major blizzards and severe cold. They've got the pics to prove it.


Alright, enough of that, I gotta go dig out the fire hydrants cause nobody else did.

:/

Not that we'd be in any real danger as I'm sure two firemen would take under a minute to dig one out but hey, if needed, they don't need to be wasting even one single minute doing that.






Ugh. Slush fest :( Back to normal around here...

Meanwhile, Doc's blog is as dramatic as ever. I feel like it's starting to turn into the "Jersey Shore" of weather/climate enthusiasts, hahaha.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3684
1101. P451
Quoting originalLT:
I hope that low that the GFS shows initiating in TX, initiates alittle further South, then moves NE--maybe we can "squeeze it" off the coast!


Seeming unlikely at this time.

Which is fine, if you read my "This winter is mirroring last winter" post. Then we want this to be a 60F heavy rain and thunderstorm event so we can get back to business in February. :)

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1100. P451
Quoting shipweather:
P451- I was in Kutztown for break. I'm back in Shippensburg, PA now (hence Shipweather)


Gotcha.

Welcome, LT and others. We'll get it together.


---

120HRs (5 day), IR Imagery. (Note: Remember the big 26th dec storm how it showed so mighty on IR? Note how this one barely shows at all until it winds up just south of LI and develops an "eye" as it departs the cape.)




...I should have done the WV loop it might have shown it better. Oh well.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
P451- I was in Kutztown for break. I'm back in Shippensburg, PA now (hence Shipweather)
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Thanks for all your work P451, so far about 45 names/places. I hope that low that the GFS shows initiating in TX, initiates alittle further South, then moves NE--maybe we can "squeeze it" off the coast!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
1097. P451
Well, here's 168 hours of the GFS in a different rendering.

You can see a mid-south low around Texas get energized by a piece of energy that slips in from the Pac NW and then the thing takes off and rides west of the Appalachians.



Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting zotty:
quiet here today. I guess people are catching up on work!


Yes, back to work and I should be working, but I'm finding it hard to concentrate after all the snow excitement.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1246
Quoting Hoynieva:


Or...you could help them by throwing snow at the hypothetical fire. Sure, it would take an infinite number of shovels full, but it is my belief that these past two winters have developed your shoveling muscles for such a unique situation.

Imagine the headlines.

Thanks for the laugh, Hoy! I want a photo now, P. ;)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1246
Quoting TrentonThunder:


Thats 4.7 avg through for the season through Jan 12th. Philly averages around 20 total per season.

That makes a lot more sense. I've been frustrated with our snow in past years, but that sounded way too low. Thanks again -
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1246
1093. P451
Quoting Hoynieva:
Hey, thanks for doing this, P. I've been wanting a map like this to exist.


Same here.

Sometimes people forget to put their location down when they announce "Got an inch here." type post.

I think this may prove helpful.

Will give time for others to chime in, or those who I missed, and after a few days I'll research what I have to do to create such a map (This should be relatively straight forward I would think.)

And then we will take it from there (Offering the KMZ for download so everyone can incorporate it into their google earths.)

And maybe, somehow, if reasonable and easy to do, offer Blizz a blank one that he can make his snowfall maps on? That could be a little tougher, so, well, let's do one thing at a time.

This is also dependent on my time as well.


Good idea though.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202

Quoting PhillySnow:

Wow - thanks for doing this, TT. So our average in Philadelphia is 4.7"? I never realized that. I hope we stay in the current pattern for a few more happy snow years, and then I'm moving north. :)

Thats 4.7 avg through for the season through Jan 12th. Philly averages around 20 total per season.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Hey, thanks for doing this, P. I've been wanting a map like this to exist.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1517
Quoting PhillySnow:

So our average in Philadelphia is 4.7"? I never realized that. I hope we stay in the current pattern for a few more happy snow years, and then I'm moving north. :)


No, your average is actually 19.3"

I'm not sure which categories represent which numbers, other than the current snowfall this year in cat 1.

@ Zotty - Yep, it would be a viral hit.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1517
1089. P451
Quoting Hoynieva:


Or...you could help them by throwing snow at the hypothetical fire. Sure, it would take an infinite number of shovels full, but it is my belief that these past two winters have developed your shoveling muscles for such a unique situation.

Imagine the headlines.



LOL!

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1088. P451
Okay I tallied every post I found giving a location.

Here's the raw list, please make corrections, or add yourself in. I'll give it several days and then I will properly format everyone into TOWN, STATE type.... and then when I have time will create a google earth kmz map file of us all.

This will aide in discussion and possibly aide Blizz in forecasting.

So, chime in.

No one here gives a crap where you live or has any ill intentions. So, join in.

==================================
The RAW list:


Blizzard92 Winter Weather Blog




anduril - Camp Hill, PA
Blizzard92 - Linglestown- 10mi northeast of Harrisburg, PA
breald - Fall River, MA
bwi - Maryland suburbs NNE of DC near the intersection of I-95 (Capitol Beltway) and the Baltimore-Washington parkway.
cchamp6 - Bantam section of Litchfield, Ct
drj10526 - Litchfield Cty, CT
Followingseas - Northwest Washington DC
fz1 - Atlantic City, NJ
Gaara - Milford, CT
goofyrider - Spring Lake, NJ
HarryMc - Seacoast New Hampshire
HeavySnow - Annandale, VA.
Hoynieva - Brooklyn, NY
johnbluedog69 - Seaford,Delaware
jrzyshore - Brick, NJ
LettyS - I'm in Warwick, NY (Orange County)
listenerVT - I'm in NW Vt 20 mi. ENE of Burlington. Longitude: 72° 22' 23" West Latitude: 43° 42' 10"
MarylandGirl - Southern Maryland, St. Mary's County. Right where the Chesapeake Bay, Patuxent River and Potomac River kind of meet.
Mason803 - Cashtown, PA
NJLuLu - Jersey Shore here, Toms River area
njstormwatcher - Mountain Lakes, NJ
NumberWise - Johnstown, NY
NYBizBee - Massapequa, Southern Nassau County , Long Island, NY.
nyislanders55 - Riverhead NY eastern part of Suffolk county
originalLT - Stamford, CT
P451 - Tinton Falls, NJ
PalmyraPunishment - Camp Hill, Pennsylvania (Cumberland County) and Palmyra, Pennsylvania (Lebanon County)
PhillySnow - Media, PA; just southwest of Philly.
Rhodyguy - Newport RI
Roebear - NE of Hershey PA S of 22
shipweather - Kutztown, PA
SilverShipsofAndilar - Blizz, PP and I cover Harrisburg, PA, and the surrounding area. I think PP lives in Camp Hill and works in Palmyra. I live in Carlisle and work in Harrisburg.
SnowinCT - Norwalk, CT
snowinvermont - Jeffersonville, VT
Snowmog - (Northern) Tiverton RI.
spud358 - Warwick, RI
TheF1Man - Trumbull, CT
TheRasberryPatch - Campbelltown, PA
tinkahbell - Dover, DE
TrentonThunder - Hamilton Township --- Trenton, NJ
wunderstorm87 - near Halifax, PA...15 mi north of Harrisburg
wxgeek723 - Cherry Hill, NJ.



Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1087. P451
Quoting SnowinCT:


Norwalk, CT


Ay... Rough town. Been there before. Been in trouble there before. LOL.


Meanwhile, yeah, quoted that from the first few pages of this blog, I'm currently tallying everyone's location.

Will post the list when done, so corrections or additions can be made, then we'll seek to place them all on a Google Earth KMZ file, offer that file, perhaps even to Blizz as a map he can paste his snowfall predictions on.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves however. I can't do this all at once and quickly. I hope to have it done before our next true blizzard threat (February?)

....
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting TrentonThunder:
Tried to make that as readable as possible.

Categories are; from left to right...
State & Town / Observed Value / Average Value / Departure From Average / Last Years Total To Date.

Wow - thanks for doing this, TT. So our average in Philadelphia is 4.7"? I never realized that. I hope we stay in the current pattern for a few more happy snow years, and then I'm moving north. :)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1246
1085. GTOSnow
That would end up rain even here in the Worcester area huh? That would not be good for my driveway or basement!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1084. zotty
quiet here today.  i guess people are catching up on work!  
Hoy, I'd like to see P shoveling snow on a fire.  
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tried to make that as readable as possible.

Categories are; from left to right...
State & Town / Observed Value / Average Value / Departure From Average / Last Years Total To Date.

Hey Heavy, it must be killing you that Columbia South Carolina & Augusta Georgia have seen more snow than you.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
EAST COAST SNOWFALL TOTALS WINTER 2010-2011 TO DATE
(Through January 12th, 11:59PM)

////////////////////////////DEP//////
ST/////////////OBS///AVG////FRM///LST
TWN////////////VAL///VAL////AVG///YR


MAINE
Bangor/////////34.5//24.7///+9.8//37.1
Caribou////////27.9//48.9//-21.0//46.5
Portland///////25.5//24.9///+0.6//21.5

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Concord////////26.4//25.4///+1.0//24.7

VERMONT
Burlington/////44.1//33.1//+11.0//63.6

MASSACHUSSETS
Boston/////////40.4//12.7//+27.7//25.6
Worcester//////36.9//22.2//+14.7//31.8

RHODE ISLAND
Providence/////24.0//10.7//+13.3//25.5

CONNECTICUT
Hartford///////48.1//16.3//+31.8//14.5
Bridgeport/////33.2///7.1//+26.1//18.1

NEW YORK
Syracuse///////92.2//50.1//+42.1//57.7
Rochester//////63.5//39.7//+23.8//49.0
Buffalo////////48.5//47.6///+0.9//48.7
Albany/////////34.1//25.0///+9.1//17.5
Islip//////////31.5///7.2//+24.3//31.1
Manhattan//////30.9///5.4//+25.5//13.2
South Queens///22.9///5.3//+17.6//16.7
North Queens///22.3///6.0//+16.3//11.1

PENNSYLVANIA
Erie///////////32.9//45.4//-12.5//53.7
Pittsburgh/////24.2//15.5///+8.7//23.4
Philadelphia///21.1///4.7//+16.4//25.1
Scranton///////13.7//16.5///-2.8//19.7
Allentown//////11.9///8.8///+3.1//16.4
Williamsport///10.1//14.4///-4.3//15.1
Harrisburg//////7.1//12.1///-5.0//15.2

NEW JERSEY
Newark/////////35.9///6.5//+29.4//13.9
Atlantic City//30.4///3.0//+27.4//13.8
Trenton////////22.3///6.7//+15.6//12.9

DELAWARE
Wilmington/////10.1///4.9///+5.2//21.5

MARYLAND
Glen Burnie//////3.5///4.4///-0.9//21.9

WEST VIRGINIA
Beckley/////////63.1//22.0//+44.1//70.5
Elkins//////////50.6//30.2//+20.4//51.9
Bluefield///////46.6////NA/////NA//39.6
Charleston//////24.2//12.2//+12.0//30.3
Huntington//////17.5///8.5///+9.0//19.2

VIRGINIA
Norfolk/////////18.0///1.1//+16.9///0.2
Blacksburg//////15.5////NA/////NA//11.6
Wallops Island//14.8///2.6//+12.2///3.3
Danville////////10.7////NA/////NA///5.5
Richmond////////10.0///3.1///+6.9///8.0
Roanoke//////////8.8///8.0///+0.8//19.0
Lynchburg////////7.5///5.8///+1.7//12.5
Arlington////////3.5///4.5///-1.0//17.6
Dulles///////////3.1///5.5///-2.4//22.6

NORTH CAROLINA
Asheville///////19.8///3.4//+16.4//10.6
Greensboro///////9.6///2.2///+7.4///3.0
Raleigh//////////8.6///1.2///+7.4///0.1
Charlotte////////6.1///0.7///+5.4/////T
Wilmington///////3.9///0.8///+3.1///0.0
New Bern/////////3.1////NA/////NA/////T
Cape Hatteras//////T///0.8///-0.8///0.0

SOUTH CAROLINA
Greenville///////8.8///1.3///+7.5/////T
Columbia/////////4.8///0.1///+4.7///0.0
Charleston///////0.2///0.3///-0.1///0.0

GEORGIA
Athens//////////12.1///0.2//+11.9////NA
Atlanta//////////5.9///0.3///+5.6///0.6
Augusta//////////4.0///0.1///+3.9/////T
Macon////////////0.1///0.1////0.0///0.0
Columbus///////////T///0.1///-0.1///0.0
Alma///////////////T///1.0///-1.0///0.0
Brunswick//////////T////NA/////NA///0.0
Savannah///////////T///0.1///-0.1///0.0

FLORIDA
Jacksonville///////T/////T//////T///0.0
Pensacola//////////T////+T////0.0/////T
Tallahassee////////T///0.1///-0.1///0.0
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting P451:



Alright, enough of that, I gotta go dig out the fire hydrants cause nobody else did.

:/

Not that we'd be in any real danger as I'm sure two firemen would take under a minute to dig one out but hey, if needed, they don't need to be wasting even one single minute doing that.






Or...you could help them by throwing snow at the hypothetical fire. Sure, it would take an infinite number of shovels full, but it is my belief that these past two winters have developed your shoveling muscles for such a unique situation.

Imagine the headlines.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1517
Seems like just yesterday, one of the models had it coming off the coast off shore, similar position as this last one.There is still alot of time.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
1079. NEwxguy
Sure hope we don't get a lot rain up here after 2 ft of snow,can see a lot of roof collapses if that were to happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
GFS 850MB Temps at 150 hours: WARM VERY WARM

That's just nasty. Thanks for the explanations, P, and I do hope this changes.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1246
1077. zotty

Quoting P451:


It's a shame the NWS MOS READINGS only go 3 days out.

So, well, we have to wait. These were HIGHLY accurate with the last storm. GFS had 32, NAM had 33 - I hit 34F the evening of the onset of the snow.

This next one sure does seem to hint Appalachia East = WARM and FLOODING RAIN.

Hey P- what I find amazing is how much warmer you were down there compared to Westchester.  You are only 30 miles away but I don't think we cracked 30 degrees on Tuesday or Wednesday.  I am only a couple miles from LI Sound so we usually have similar temperatures as you.  
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1076. zotty

Quoting Hoynieva:
Just saw Inaccuweather's extended forecast. They're, once again, being the most liberal, but this time with the warm up. They have us at 41 on Tuesday and 47 on Wednesday! That's nuts. I anticipate mid to upper 30's, possibly reaching 40 one of the two days with rain in the day and mix to snow mornings and nights.
Hmm, that is interesting.  I made fun of them last week for saying we would get 0.01" precip and 8" of snow.  The 8" turned out to be a conservative!  

Who is the official winner of the contest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1075. P451
Quoting Hoynieva:
Just saw Inaccuweather's extended forecast. Their, once again, being the most liberal, but this time with the warm up. They have us at 41 on Tuesday and 47 on Wednesday! That's nuts. I anticipate mid to upper 30's, possibly reaching 40 one of the two days with rain in the day and mix to snow mornings and nights.


It's a shame the NWS MOS READINGS only go 3 days out.

So, well, we have to wait. These were HIGHLY accurate with the last storm. GFS had 32, NAM had 33 - I hit 34F the evening of the onset of the snow.

This next one sure does seem to hint Appalachia East = WARM and FLOODING RAIN.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202

Viewing: 1125 - 1075

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
31 °F
Scattered Clouds

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations