Isaac will have little to no affect on the Northeast...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:52 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

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121. TheRasberryPatch
9:28 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Pcroton - the bluefish run should be starting within a month or so. do you surf fish? No one on the beach it should be a great time to surf fish.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
120. wunderstorm87
6:39 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Today has been a fairly interesting weather day despite how tranquil it is here locally. Parts of the Rockies received their first snowfall last night and the world's hottest recorded temperature now belongs to the United States and Death Valley.

Colorado Snow Pics via AccuWx:
Link

Wunderground documentary on the WMO's announcement today:
Link

I actually found the documentary quite interesting so if you have 25-30 minutes I'd recommend it if you're into weather history or extremes.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
119. goofyrider
2:42 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Beach rescues Sat but waves dropped off.   We never saw the 6+ ft surf in the forecast.   Rips were common.   Great beach weather this week.  
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
118. Zachary Labe
2:22 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
*New written blog coming out tomorrow morning by 10am. I will try to include some of my thoughts on the coming winter.

Looks like some decent cooler weather is coming towards the end of the month. Anomalous ridging towards Greenland adds additional support...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
117. PhillySnow
12:47 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Greetings, all! Our low here last night was 60; not quite so impressive as Zach's 39 degrees. It's been nice and cool during the day, though, which I am loving. There's still some outside painting to do on our house, and we're scrambling a bit to get it all done before it actually gets cold. Otherwise, I am very glad to see this summer leave.

Looking to winter, I've seen both forecasts of warm and rainy and forecasts of lots of snow. Thoughts, anyone?
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234
116. Pcroton
4:55 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
TRP same thing here in central NJ. Frosts don't seem as early as they were going back to the 90s and 80s. We're definitely in a different pattern the 00s and 10s in regards to that.

Meanwhile, 52F last night in TF, NJ...so we're trending warmer already. 77F right now. We actually hit 48F for a low yesterday AM and 78F for a high.

Looking at hitting the beach again on Friday for certain. 78F air, 78F water.. yeah, that's going to be just fine.



I went Monday AM - it was 65F but the water 78F and it was low tide...so I was able to swim a little and stay out of the turblent breaks. Nothing too impressive water wise given Leslie other than about every 10 waves you got 2-3 big ones that rolled in before the previous could roll out and if you didn't back away you went from ankle to knee to chest to head deep pretty quick and then the whole thing wanted to pour out off the bar at once - very strong return currents when that happened.

So I stayed away from that and just swam around in the ditch close to shore in the whitewater leftovers.

Still nice tho - but not worth the risk with the surf.

Should be calmer this go around.



Monday, 9AM, Ocean Grove, NJ:



You can see a person in the surf and note the scale of the whitewater...and see how quick you went from ankle to head deep and then back again...unless of course the back again took you with it.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
115. originalLT
1:16 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Got down to 51F here in Stamford CT. on Wed. morning. Baro. now pretty high at 30.28".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
114. weatherman321
4:42 AM GMT on September 12, 2012
going down to 48F here in the morning , can't wait.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
113. originalLT
1:10 AM GMT on September 12, 2012
Here in Stamford CT. ,was down to 48F this morning.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
112. TheRasberryPatch
12:59 AM GMT on September 12, 2012
low of 47F this morning
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
111. Mason803
9:52 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
hit 42f here in Cashtown this morn. my uncle had frost in tucker county wv. (3500ft)
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
110. Zachary Labe
1:00 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Low of 39F here on campus this morning!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
109. TheRasberryPatch
3:00 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Pcroton - I lived near Monroe/Warwick/Goshen (Orange County) area back in 2000-02 and I recall Fall 2001 we had many mornings by mid-September with frost conditons. It's not like that here in south central PA though. We are lucky to get a frost by Halloween, lately.

Low here this morning 53F
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
108. Zachary Labe
1:38 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
43F here on campus this morning, hoping to touch the upper 30s tonight!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
107. Pcroton
11:43 AM GMT on September 10, 2012
Good Morning.

Yeah Zach it is a nice change. 54F bottomed out a little bit ago.


TRP, yeah, it's time for fall. After the cool wet early June we really had a solid six weeks of just heat humidity and drought...and then we got the deluge. None of it too nice.

So I am ready for this. A couple low 80s end of the week - I'll choose Thurs or Fri for the beach - but other than those little visits I prefer we don't see 80s again.


Meanwhile... what a delight to see this already:

420 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARDS...AREAS OF FROST.

* TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.



Impressive!

And in 10 days if things hold firm we will be seeing lows in the 40s for a night or two - perhaps 30s for some!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
106. Zachary Labe
1:32 AM GMT on September 10, 2012
A refreshing 52F here currently with a dew point of 46F. Definitely the first taste of Fall, and I am loving it!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
105. TheRasberryPatch
1:05 AM GMT on September 10, 2012
Well put Pcroton. I couldn't agree with you more.

Yesterday, they had a severe thunderstorm warning out for my area. The radar showed yellows and reds, but all we got was heavy rain. I did not see lightning or hear thunder.

That is so interesting about the falsifying of records. Just amazing. Most people come to respect and believe NOAA. What is the left doing to science?

Anyway, I don't mind the reinforcing Fall weather coming this way. Today was mostly gorgeous. And a great evening to walk the dog.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
104. Pcroton
10:38 PM GMT on September 09, 2012
So, in about 10 days we're going to get one heck of a nice reinforcement of Fall.






But then as we know..it'll warm back up:

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
103. Pcroton
10:37 PM GMT on September 09, 2012
101.

Well, about 6-7 years ago NOAA posted some big article about AGW (and how we're all gunna die).

They created a graphic showing Austrailia - and painted the whole continent in 4-12C above normal anomalies.

An Austrailian blogger, well since tossed to the wind, get very angry with what he saw as a complete lie, dug up other sources created by Austrailia meterological organizations, and posted maps showing the country, at the exact time period of NOAAs map, in -4C to +6C anomalies.

It's not the only example. NOAAs red dot blue dot maps are absolutely awful and easily proved incorrect.

Their ocean anomaly maps are out of control at times painting the entire Arctic AND Antarctic in +12C temps - something that is just ridiculous.

Don't forget all those stolen Emails showing that temperatures were rounded up in databases, that new data was input to replace old data - that stations with missing data had data added after the fact (you know, like 80 years later, oh that week is missing? We'll just put 50s in there for that one. Seems right).

You can go on and on with this...They are an agenda driven organization....but I won't continue because I know Blizz doesn't want an AGW fight on his blog...and it's one nobody can win anyway, just descends into a useless argument as we all know.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
102. TheRasberryPatch
7:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2012
I only received heavy rain yesterday. 0.40" in about an hour.

Getting a shower right now. From the radar it looks almost like lake effect showers.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
101. wxgeek723
6:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2012
P you have just won the internet. Could not agree more.

But wait hold on, when were they caught falsifying temperature records?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3574
100. goofyrider
3:29 PM GMT on September 09, 2012
0.33 in rain,  beach break 2-3 ft with paddle boards and board riders, @0300 it was still 2-3 ft surf.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
99. Pcroton
12:10 PM GMT on September 09, 2012
College of DuPage has a real nice 24 hour WV loop...shows the event unfold.

Link here
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
98. Pcroton
12:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2012
Okay, here's where I get perturbed (Yes, Perturbed!)

The funnel cloud sighting in Brick, which is being argued about down here as whether or not it was a waterspout or just a funnel sighting, is being reported as an official tornado report.

Just close the whole thing down......... pft.

You know, there are these things called Soap Operas on the major networks in the early afternoon, for those who need to escape reality.

Why can't we leave science alone?
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
97. Pcroton
11:42 AM GMT on September 09, 2012
Seems like most people had a non-event. Isolated severe reports.

Smells like something that would have done just fine under a SLGT category and Tornado watches.


The SPC Wind Report map shows 285 reports.

To my knowledge a true severe wind report is one of storm force winds which is 58mph+

Those maps are generated from internet reports received. Anyone can place them.

I'd be willing to be less than half those blue dots are true storm force wind reports.

There is no manpower to investigate every report so they will just leave them on there.

This doesn't sit well with me....for if you use a whole summer of this method of data collection and try to compare it to summers before such reporting was possible...you're going to think the world is coming to an end.


So, back to the grossly over-dramatic forecasting we have all noticed this summer.

Do people here feel this is a good idea? Alarm people and then after the fact muse "It could have been worse." "Dodged a bullet." "Better to warn and be prepared."

????

I recall times not too far in the past where even the SLGT category was rarely used by the SPC and only reserved for likely damaging events. Now it's thrown around as much as "Partly Cloudy" it seems.

Again, good idea or bad? I'm saying bad.


And lastly...yesterday's alarm was raised because forecast MODELS raised the alarm and they went along with it. Seems we forecast off of modeling instead of feel now. We can see the result of this in the awful hurricane forecasting this season.

Good idea or bad?

Again, I say bad.


If you're over-warning people in an effort to get them to safety it won't work. The same people that need to be shocked in order to act - are the same people laughing this morning about the non-event and how the weatherman always make a big deal out of nothing.

This will cause more people to tune out. When a valid warning comes it won't be heeded.



I don't know what more to say or rant about....but none of this sits well with me.

More and more NOAA, and the entities that fall under it (SPC, CPC, HPC, NHC, etc) are gaining a flair for the dramatic, a reality TV show type platform of action, and (go ahead, hand me a tinfoil hat), an AGW agenda driven organization. They have been caught falsifying temperature anomoly records and maps. Their forecasting is all overly dramatic doom now. Their severe reports criteria has fallen to levels of laughter.

I perceive weather as science - and report gathering as fact.

They have turned it into a circus IMO. I don't like it and I think it does everyone a disservice.

We're all held hostage by it which is just frustrating.

We were doing just fine back in the 80s. The technology infusion was supposed to bring precision to the table. Instead it has brought confusion.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
96. originalLT
11:03 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Pretty much of a weak event for me in central Stamford CT. My friend who lives about 4-5 miles to my North got hit harder. I only received 0.43" of rain , with some wind gusts of up to 35mph, and some thunder, but really not too bad, didn't last long, Started about 6PM ,the worst part lasted about 20mins., Still some light rain now.Baro. down to 29.58".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
95. wxgeek723
9:53 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
With the threat of gusty winds and the reported funnel cloud sightings and perhaps a couple of brief F0 touchdowns - I would say the severe watches were warranted.

However a MODERATE (rarely used, esp in the NE/MIDatl) SPC risk was completely unwarranted.


Mt. Holly NJ - they pegged this fantastic for my region.


The whole region could have taken a cue from their outlook.

Scattered strong storms with some isolated severe cells. Some gusty winds and heavy rains possible.

.........and folks, that's what we got.

We've got some isolated severe reports and that's about it.


I don't understand what the deal is with the SPC this summer but they have been over-estimating the events.

What used to be very little used SLGHT category became commonly used...with little confirmation within those areas. Twice with MODERATE only to not have anything close to the widespread damage that declaration infers.

Oh well...I'm not sad there were such limited and isolated damage reports - I'm annoyed the SPC makes you think historic widespread events are coming - and most of us get a breeze.

Not sure what else to say: NON-EVENT for me, again.

What's coming in a hour or less is a joke.. a dying line.

I'll be sure to enjoy the weather behind the front in an hour or so.



Ditto
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3574
94. listenerVT
9:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

hahaha I have to laugh... the whole line is falling apart south of that north New Jersey bow echo.


Not the whole line! Look just to the west of MA and check out Canada!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
93. Zachary Labe
9:09 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
With the threat of gusty winds and the reported funnel cloud sightings and perhaps a couple of brief F0 touchdowns - I would say the severe watches were warranted.

However a MODERATE (rarely used, esp in the NE/MIDatl) SPC risk was completely unwarranted.


Mt. Holly NJ - they pegged this fantastic for my region.


The whole region could have taken a cue from their outlook.

Scattered strong storms with some isolated severe cells. Some gusty winds and heavy rains possible.

.........and folks, that's what we got.

We've got some isolated severe reports and that's about it.


I don't understand what the deal is with the SPC this summer but they have been over-estimating the events.

What used to be very little used SLGHT category became commonly used...with little confirmation within those areas. Twice with MODERATE only to not have anything close to the widespread damage that declaration infers.

Oh well...I'm not sad there were such limited and isolated damage reports - I'm annoyed the SPC makes you think historic widespread events are coming - and most of us get a breeze.

Not sure what else to say: NON-EVENT for me, again.

What's coming in a hour or less is a joke.. a dying line.

I'll be sure to enjoy the weather behind the front in an hour or so.


hahaha I have to laugh... the whole line is falling apart south of that north New Jersey bow echo.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
92. listenerVT
9:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Tornado Vortex signature at the SW corner of Vermont!

A friend of mine saw the blackness of the Fairfax tornado. Was in her car and got home in time. Then worried about her wedding dress out in her car. She was wondering whether Homeowner's or Auto Insurance would cover it. LOL!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
91. Pcroton
8:58 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:
Much cooler weather behind the front. Already down to 60F here in Ithaca and we may touch the upper 30s for a low in the coming days; definitely the first real taste of fall.


That's awesome.

Even though they have low 80s for me again by the end of the week...and we know the CPC has us all generally above normal temps through NOV... this front is the true transition from summer to fall.

I will be enjoying my 55/75 spilt the next couple of days before the rebounding warmth.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
90. Pcroton
8:56 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
With the threat of gusty winds and the reported funnel cloud sightings and perhaps a couple of brief F0 touchdowns - I would say the severe watches were warranted.

However a MODERATE (rarely used, esp in the NE/MIDatl) SPC risk was completely unwarranted.


Mt. Holly NJ - they pegged this fantastic for my region.


The whole region could have taken a cue from their outlook.

Scattered strong storms with some isolated severe cells. Some gusty winds and heavy rains possible.

.........and folks, that's what we got.

We've got some isolated severe reports and that's about it.


I don't understand what the deal is with the SPC this summer but they have been over-estimating the events.

What used to be very little used SLGHT category became commonly used...with little confirmation within those areas. Twice with MODERATE only to not have anything close to the widespread damage that declaration infers.

Oh well...I'm not sad there were such limited and isolated damage reports - I'm annoyed the SPC makes you think historic widespread events are coming - and most of us get a breeze.

Not sure what else to say: NON-EVENT for me, again.

What's coming in a hour or less is a joke.. a dying line.

I'll be sure to enjoy the weather behind the front in an hour or so.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
89. testbenchdude
8:34 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Buddy of mine in VA said there was a tornado sighted in Fairfax. We barely got a few minutes of downpour and some gusts in West Chester, PA.

Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
88. listenerVT
8:03 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Well, here we are under a Tornado Watch and the Severe Thunderstorm Warning just got upgraded reaching the Champlain Valley. It's going to be an interesting evening. Somehow instead of feeling jazzed up, like I usually do, this one makes me feel tense.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
87. Zachary Labe
7:09 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Much cooler weather behind the front. Already down to 60F here in Ithaca and we may touch the upper 30s for a low in the coming days; definitely the first real taste of fall.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
86. Gaara
6:34 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
The US Open semi-final between Berdych and Andy Murray has been pretty hilarious. Trash blowing all over the court, a pair of chairs rolling into the court from the sidelines during service. And, of course, the USTA has decided not to play any of today's matches concurrently despite the absolute inevitability of a rainout for the women's final tonight.

About to head out to enjoy what may possibly be the last good pool day of the year.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 375
85. weathergeek5
6:34 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Per Fd scanner in York...."possible tornado hit here..a lot of trees down here"
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84. Pcroton
6:33 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Nice graphic wunderstorm.


Well these storms are topped at 15-25K feet.

Not your normal variety.



Seems there are now some minor wind damage reports coming in from the bow that evolved in MD and slipped into souther PA as more of a line now.

Tree down here. Wires down there. Things of that nature.

It appears well lined up to go for Philly-Trenton and into central NJ from there.

I will say I have not yet read or seen anything catastrophic reported. Widespread destruction is clearly not on today's menu.

It really sounds like your average expected weak tree down type event thus far...and isolated at that.

Heating is at a maximum and the distance between the front and the coastline is rapidly closing so the elements are already in place.

Doesn't mean it won't be giving some folks a bad day and some cleanup for tomorrow but for the most part I think it's grossly overblown hype wise - which has unfortunately been the norm this season.

Will chime in later if it seems overly impressive prior to hitting my area - or if anything noteworthy occurs with it's passage.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
83. weathergeek5
6:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Getting reports of damage in York county.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
82. wunderstorm87
6:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
This is easily the strongest rotation I've seen all day with this cell east of Litchfield, CT:


It's important to note that this is about 6kft off the ground though.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
81. Gaara
6:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Another weak couplet, this time on the cell over litchfield county currently near torrington. Meanwhile, a dry day thus far in Milford.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 375
80. PhillySnow
6:01 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Still sunny and warm here. Just starting to see a bit of grey in the sky.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234
79. Pcroton
5:42 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

Wow, awesome radar image!


It is cool sped up isn't it.

Here's the lower PA one:

((edit: radar is now old.))



That bow in MD moving into southern PA tends to line up pretty good with Central NJ. We'll see what it brings.


Meanwhile a photo has emerged from Brick NJ to my SE that showed a funnel cloud from the earlier cells.

Just showed on the TWC. Don't have a link.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
78. Zachary Labe
5:40 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting Pcroton:
Notice the embedded squall line is rapidly catching up to the new second line of storms trying to form.

Curious to see what comes of that.


Wow, awesome radar image!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
77. Pcroton
5:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Notice the embedded squall line is rapidly catching up to the new second line of storms trying to form.

Curious to see what comes of that.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
76. wunderstorm87
5:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
There was a 31mph wind gust on top of the Walker building, which is 7 stories up (so it will usually be higher than a standard 10m wind):
Link
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
75. Zachary Labe
5:30 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Squall moving though Ithaca presently with only heavy rain and very little rain. We had a heavy shower move through about one hour ago that was much more impressive with gusts to near 45mph. That has now turned into a line out towards Binghamton.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
74. Pcroton
5:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting Blizzard92:

CTP reported a 54mph gust at their station, so it appears the winds are in concentrated areas.


The storm going into Gettysburg right now could give us a good indication what everyone is facing with the larger cells and how much wind is mixing down with them.

So keep an eye out for any potential severe reports from there.

As to the embedded squall line it surprises me it's breaking into segments. I guess it's tapping more heat and any shear-induced rotation is causing the breaks.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
73. Zachary Labe
5:21 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting wunderstorm87:
You really couldn't notice the squall line go through State College. The wind didn't increase more than 10mph above the 15-25mph gusts I've seen all day and the rain wasn't even that heavy either. There wasn't any lightning which wasn't a surprise given the echo tops data showing cloud tops only around 10-12kft.

CTP reported a 54mph gust at their station, so it appears the winds are in concentrated areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
72. wunderstorm87
5:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
You really couldn't notice the squall line go through State College. The wind didn't increase more than 10mph above the 15-25mph gusts I've seen all day and the rain wasn't even that heavy either. There wasn't any lightning which wasn't a surprise given the echo tops data showing cloud tops only around 10-12kft.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
71. Pcroton
5:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
A "real deal" type storm is down in Maryland right now.

Watch and see how this one progresses and if it develops into a larger line or event - or more like it form.



((edit: radar is now old.))


This is one I'd be wary of.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741

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