Thursday full update on coastal storm...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:41 PM GMT on December 28, 2007

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Thoughts on January 14th storm...


Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

This is my current rain/snow line...

Storm impacts...


Preliminary Snow Map...


"Subject to Change"

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...

Hagerstown, MD-
Baltimore, MD-
Washington, DC-
Wilmington, DE-
Dover, DE-
Cape May, NJ-
Trenton, NJ-
New York City, NY-
Poughkeepsie, NY-
Binghamton, NY-
Albany, NY-
Hartford, CT-
Concord, NH-
Providence, RI-
Worcester, MA-
Boston, MA-
Nantucket, MA-
Portland, ME-
Bangor, ME-
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis

Here is the 12z GFS...


Here is the 12z GFS precipitation amounts...


Here is the 12z NAM...


After the storm...


This blog is in progress. Check back soon.

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

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107. lawntonlookers
3:03 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Thanks Blizzard for you snowfall. It started after I was in bed last night so didn't see the snowfall. It appears that here along Derry Street that it may have been more sleet at the start. It may have been close to 1.5 inches, but was not an even fluffy snow. More of an ice cover this morning when I went to work. At least it was a snow fall.

It looks like the possibility of some more tommorow, but some of the tracks show the Low going to our north. What do you think.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
106. Zachary Labe
2:52 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Do not listen to the local meteorologists.
I got about 2.5inches of snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
105. PalmyraPunishment
3:35 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
10:35 PM Carlisle, PA

Heavy snow falling, windy...

Local meteorologists said it would rain... where is this rain?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
104. Zachary Labe
2:21 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
Here north of Harrisburg...(base of Blue Mts)

32degrees
heavy snow with a little sleet mixed in

.5inch of sleet
.25inch of snow
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
103. Zachary Labe
12:23 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
Nope.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
102. Stormfront
12:09 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
Better change that snow map again, Blizzard.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
101. Zachary Labe
11:58 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
32degrees and heavy sleet here
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
100. Zachary Labe
9:17 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Now it is snowing and sleeting lightly and it is 32degrees.

Did anyone notice the precipitation seems to be quickly moving towards the east? It seems like I am near the back edge. Is this true?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
99. MDFirefighter
9:00 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
That clipper looks nice Sully lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
98. Zachary Labe
8:52 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Looks like another hard storm to forecast
Everytime the precipitation gets heavy in Harrisburg it turns to snow, when it gets light it turns to sleet.

It is now 33degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
97. sullivanweather
8:48 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Blizzard,

You check out the 18z NAM for the clipper?
LOL
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
96. MDFirefighter
8:38 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
big enough snow flakes? lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
95. Zachary Labe
8:08 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Huge snowflakes are falling.
Some are dime sized.
Coming down hard.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
94. Zachary Labe
7:58 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
thankyou
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
93. sullivanweather
7:53 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Blizzard,

Go to this page

Determining Precipitation type

Then use the SREF models and figure out your temps aloft/thicknesses and you'll be on your way.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
92. Zachary Labe
7:50 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Here north of Harrisburg...
250pm
Light snow, snow is of a wet nature
35degrees
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
91. PalmyraPunishment
7:45 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
37 degrees currently in Carlisle, PA

I'm thinking mixed bag all evening/night... no accumulation
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
90. Zachary Labe
7:36 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Yes, I did too. LoL.

Still I have questions about the snow. It is about 4degrees colder here in Harrisburg than they forecasted for this time. My question is how much warming is their aloft.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
89. sullivanweather
7:32 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Blizzard,

I liked your old snowmap better...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
88. Zachary Labe
7:18 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
I know I have doubt about snow too, but I will keep my snow map.

Here is good news...
THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND SREFS TRENDING
"SLIGHTLY" HIGHER (BY 15 TO 20 PERCENT) WITH MEAN STORM TOTAL QPF
(AND A BIT COLDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY - WHERE ABOUT 60
PERCENT OF THE QPF IS NOW FORECAST VIA THE 12Z NAM IN THE FORM OF
"WET SNOW" AT KMDT). THE PREVIOUS...06Z RUN HAD ONLY AROUND 20
PERCENT AS SNOW FOR A BRIEF 2 HOURS LATE TONIGHT.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
87. Stormfront
7:15 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Enjoy it Blizzard. I'm thinking liquid precip. here when it gets underway.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
86. Zachary Labe
7:09 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
It has just started snowing here north of harrisburg. It is just light snow. It is 36degrees and falling.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
85. Stormfront
7:03 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
You and I both saw it, Palmyra. I'm beginning to think a lot of the snow forcasting here is wishful thinking! Ocean temps still in the forties.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
84. PalmyraPunishment
3:16 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
it's 33 degrees at 10:15 AM... im having a problem seeing it NOT hitting 40 today.. which means rain

again, i hope im wrong
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
83. Zachary Labe
3:12 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
We will see an accumulation here in Harrisburg.
How much is the question?
Already this morning it is colder than the weatherman predicted.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
82. PalmyraPunishment
3:04 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Harrisburg guys..

Looks like a battle between rain and snow... we'll see grass tomorrow morning...

Again, im sorry... but i did call it on friday =(
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
81. Zachary Labe
2:41 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
lawntonlookers- What do you think is likely for harrisburg? Our local news says less than one inch.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
80. lawntonlookers
2:37 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Good morning Blizzard. Will have to keep an eye on this storm to see what it does. I really haven't had time to look at much weather forcast today. Just a quick not to all to have a Happy and Safe New Year.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
79. Zachary Labe
2:13 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
North of Harrisburg-
900am
Cloudy
28degrees
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
78. WeatherBobNut
5:50 AM GMT on December 30, 2007
Way to go PATS!!!!!!!!!!!
77. dean2007
5:30 AM GMT on December 30, 2007
PATRIOTS GO 16-0! FIRST TEAM TO ACCOMPLISH THIS FEAT.
76. Zachary Labe
3:09 AM GMT on December 30, 2007
Some strange issue with blogs today!
Anyway looks like a good 4inches of snow is likely for my area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
75. MDFirefighter
2:37 AM GMT on December 30, 2007
unless they're seeing something we arent lol. everyone seems to be down playing this storm
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
74. Zachary Labe
8:31 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
My NWS says I should pick up less than one inch of snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
73. MDFirefighter
4:24 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
looks good Sully. real good :D
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
72. sullivanweather
4:23 PM GMT on December 29, 2007


12zGFS

----------



06zGFS
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
71. MDFirefighter
4:19 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
yayyyyy lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
70. sullivanweather
4:16 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
12zGFS has about 20% more precip over the Northeast as does its 06z counterpart.

Which is better news for the snow lovers if this one verifies
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
69. MDFirefighter
3:54 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
Yeah, not much change
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
68. Zachary Labe
3:53 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
12z GFS is out and it shows about the same as the 6z.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
67. MDFirefighter
3:37 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
12z GFS is coming out
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
66. Zachary Labe
3:21 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
It looks like a more winterlike pattern will return near the mid-to end of month.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
65. Zachary Labe
2:55 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
YEP!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
64. MDFirefighter
2:50 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
Hopefully the 12z & 18z GFS have more precip, as they did yesterday
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
63. Zachary Labe
2:49 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
No it is not close at all.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
62. MDFirefighter
2:35 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
true, but it still isn't even really close to the GFS or Euro.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
61. Zachary Labe
2:33 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
It looks better though than the 6z run of the NAM looked. So that is something.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
60. MDFirefighter
2:29 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
12z NAM is out and as usual, looks like crap lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
59. Zachary Labe
2:28 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
Thankyou, I have been looking for this map for a while.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
58. MDFirefighter
2:27 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
I'm hoping with the 12z runs, I can bump up my totals to the 3"-5" range :D
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
57. MDFirefighter
2:24 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
Here you go
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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