Severe Weather for August 5...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:33 PM GMT on August 05, 2008

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"Thoughts on Severe Weather Outbreak of August 5"
Good Tuesday morning!!! Well some of us are waking up to sunshine while others are socked in the clouds and rain. A very strong complex of thunderstorms hit Chicago last night in the form of a derecho. The derecho created several outflow boundaries over the Ohio Valley later sparking nocturnal thunderstorm complexes. Lots of debris clouds are scattered about the region along with leftover rain showers and thunderstorms. And sun breaks through the clouds aheading of the next trough showers and thunderstorms should again break out this afternoon and evening. The computer models have been consistently bringing a MCS across Pennsylvania for Tuesday night. As the low level jet becomes focused over the region with strong winds aloft severe weather may be a threat. This outbreak has been highly advertised as long as 7days ago. But as we got closer to the event it looks less and less impressive. And now this morning it does not appear it will be too large or dangerous of an outbreak in Pennsylvania. I though decided to issue a severe weather formatted blog due to the threat of today's severe weather and that the other blog was getting old. Below the sections will highlight each seperate detail of the event. Please stay tuned throughout the day for the latest updates from the NWS. Also I cannot rule out quite a strong bow echo to move across the state of Pennsylvania. The GFS does show some type of complex moving across the state. But really instibility ingredients are not quite high enough for a widespread damaging derecho like was forecast a week ago.

"Current Weather Setup"
Pretty complex scenerio unfolding for Pennsylvania. A cold front is approaching the region, but out ahead of the cold front is the warm front located in the southern Pennsylvania region vicinity. Dying thunderstorm complexes are all over the Ohio valley leaving areas of substidence and debris clouds. The dying complexes are moving south into the northern parts of the Tennessee Valley. As for Pennsylvania sunshine is out across the eastern half of the state with clouds in the western part. But already evident by satellite is cloud breaks which will create areas of isolation later this afternoon. A nose of extremely high PWATs possibly in excess of 2inches will move into Pennsylvania. Looking at this morning's water vapor loop the high moisture aloft is very evident by shortwaves located along the warm front over the Indiana and Ohio vicinity moving east. Dewpoints have been on the rise this morning and will potentially reach values near 70degrees later today. If enough breaks in the clouds occur temperatures could possibly reach near 90degrees in the far southeast. Elsewhere temperatures will be in the 80s. As moisture from the Gulf rides up along the warm front thunderstorms should break out later today. The max wind shear values are over southwestern Pennsylvania up to 50knots, elsewhere around 40knots. Instibility will develop in the areas of isolation with CAPEs rising over 2000 j/kg. This type of forecast is a very difficult one as energy could be stolen to our south by those stronger complexes. But still the computer models develop a MCS over central Pennsylvania. But as time goes on I am doubting this scenerios more and more. Today will sort of be a wait and see day. Dynamics are available for severe storms, but morning substidence could really prevent strong convection from forming.

"Current Advisories"


"Current Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteorology.)

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Radar for Western Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Central Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Eastern Pennsylvania"


"Forecasts from Storm Prediction Center"
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT
FROM IA INTO OH/WV. THESE STORMS HAVE ESTABLISHED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL...THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IND
AND NORTHEAST KY INTO WV. THIS BOUNDARY MAY PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING. EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...PROMOTING VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MO TO
KY/WV. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL WITH INITIAL
STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS
CLUSTERS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

"Tornado Risks"

"Hail Risks"

"Wind Risks"


"Model Analysis"
As it seems to be the case this entire summer is that the models are suffering from convective feedback errors. The morning runs do not seem to have a good hold on the convective complexes in the Ohio Valley. The GFS and now the NAM bring a MCS over western Pennsylvania through central Pennsylvania. The NMM model seems to develop it over eastern Ohio and then dies it out over the Laural Highlands. The HIRES WRF this morning future radar does also show much of Pennsylvania seeing some rainfall. But what I am worried about it is that the energy to our southwest over the Ohio Valley will steal the energy from developing a MCS further north. This scenerio I am watching very closely this morning. As far as thermodynamics... CAPE values look to be highest over western Pennsylvania with values as high as 2500 j/kg. Over central and eastern Pennsylvania they are generally near 1000 l/kg. LI indices near -4 across much of the state. I think the SREF model has a pretty good hold on CAPE values for today. The NAM model develops some impressive SWEAT values over central Pennsylvania. The GFS develops also impressives helicity over 200 across central Pennsylvania with the core of the highest helicity tracking over the state. As far as EHI values they look to be highest over western Pennsylvania near 2 over the southwestern corner. Kinematics are pretty impressive with a nose of 35-45knots diving over the Ohio valley into western Pennsylvania. The low level jet is also impressive with winds near 25knots. So overall thermodynamics and kinematics are there, but will there be enough energy to develop MCSs farther north across Pennsylvania?

"3z SREF Model Forecast Max Cape Index"

(Tuesday evening)

"12z NAM Model Forecast SWEAT, Helicity, and CAPE indices"

(Tuesday evening)

"0z GFS Model Forecast Helicity Values"

(Tuesday evening)

"0z GFS Model Forecast Wind Shear Values"

(Tuesday evening)

"My Forecast for Severe Weather"
Well today is a slightly low confident forecast. But anyway I am thinking convection should form along the warm front today under the high dewpoints and somewhat moderate instibility. Jet dynamics should support this progression of thunderstorms across the state. I am slowly leaning from the MCS solution to the forecast. But still there is a possibility of a MCS type thunderstorm across western and central Pennsylvania. Freezing levels today are near 14,000ft and I am not really expecting to much of hail threat. Winds today will be the main threat with any organized thunderstorm. Also isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled, but there is slight undirectional shear over western Pennsylvania which doesn't exactly support tornadic development. Heavy rain today is also a major threat as PWATs rise to several deviations above normal. Training thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out. Anyways below is my severe weather map made this morning. The highest risk of severe weather today is over southwestern Pennsylvania due to the close proximaty to the jet. But everywhere today and tonight there is a threat of scattered convection. Stay tuned to updates throughout the day.

"My Severe Weather Risk Map"

(Tuesday)

"Conclusions on Severe Weather Outbreak"
This section will highlight the forecast for the rest of the week. As the trough moves in for Wednesday clouds will be across much of the region probably as low stratus over the mountains with ceilings as low as 1,000ft. Then skies will slowly clear from west to east. Moisture aloft will dwindle to way below normal PWATs. No precipitation is expected for Wednesday. Highs will be a few degrees below normal. As the trough really settles in temperatures will be below normal thanks to the cold poor aloft. Daily showers and thunderstorms are possible late in the week, especially over the higher terrain. Small hail will also be a threat with any of the stronger thunderstorms as freezing levels will be quite low. The coolest day looks to be either Saturday or Sunday with highs below 80degrees for the most part across the state. Lows will be chilly in the 50s and even a few 40s in some areas. Northwest flow instibility clouds will be common, so the afternoons will not contain clear skies. By the beginning of next week the trough begins to depart with little to no threat of precipitation. Sunshine returns along with closer to normal temperatures. Looking ahead towards the far future it appears as if no heatwave is in sight. A near normal to slightly cooler than normal pattern remain with active troughs. I would not be surprised if most areas do not see another heat wave. Very interesting summer so far.

"Storm Reports"


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 3
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 25

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 0.00inches
Yearly Precipitation- 27.85inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 12

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68. dean2007
4:54 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
Blizzard, by looking at the severe weather maps and model outputs above it appears there is the chance for severe weather even here in the 60F rainy day region of SE MA.
67. dean2007
4:53 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Bennington County in southern Vermont...

* until 130 PM EDT

* at 1242 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing penny size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 6 miles
west of Manchester... and moving southeast at 21 mph.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
Manchester by 1255 PM EDT...
Arlington and Manchester Center by 100 PM EDT...
9 miles northeast of Shaftsbury by 105 PM EDT...

In addition to large hail and damaging winds... continuous cloud to
ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors
immediately! Lightning is one of natures number one killers.
Remember... if you can hear thunder... you are close enough to be
struck by lightning.

Please report hail size... damaging winds and reports of trees down to
the National Weather Service by email at alb.Stormreport@noaa.Gov.

Lat... Lon 4328 7285 4313 7288 4312 7300 4293 7301
4275 7294 4276 7327 4327 7325 4328 7305
time... Mot... loc 1646z 313deg 19kt 4317 7318
66. TheRasberryPatch
3:14 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
hmmmmm winter starting late and ending late and summer just didn't seem to arrive. what does that tell me. sounds pretty temperate to me.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
65. Zachary Labe
3:12 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Lol, wait to you read my new blog coming this afternoon. I remember back in winter we all talked about the late start to winter and late end to winter. Now we are talking about the earlier start and end of summer. I sure remember some scorching Augusts and Septembers.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
64. TheRasberryPatch
3:00 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
Blizz, you disappoint me. first you mess up yesterday's rain and then you tell me it is time to think of fall. its not like the summers i remember as a kid in the 60's and 70's. it seemed like we had summer until at least Labor Day. as i kid we went for a long weekend to OCMD. after two weeks back in end of july and first of august.
i guess it is time to start thinking about football huh
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
63. Zachary Labe
1:48 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Well there could be one last little bit of heat come mid month. Other than that I think the real summer heat is over.

dean2007- It was raining pretty hard on the southern end of that line this morning.

JDinWPA- Well at least someone saw something. That is ashame about the branch. That happened to my neighbor's tomato plant back in early July the plant split in half during a storm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
62. JDinWPA
1:27 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
Good morning guys. I almost feel embarrassed to report that I got .66" overnight and .15" yesterday. I'd push it all your way if I could; I'm tired of it. The grass needs cut again and it was just cut on Sat.

Found my first tomato worm yesterday. It was on the Italian sweet pepper plants. Then last night during the storm, another branch of the same peppers broke off with five nice 'green' peppers attached. That's the second time that has happened in a week. Guess it's not a good year for the Italian sweets!
61. dean2007
12:19 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
Heavy rains coming across the South Coast of CT and LI. Hope they stay together long enough for us to get some rain.
60. dean2007
12:19 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
Yes, temps could get as high as 80 here in the Sound, but that is the lucky years.
59. TheRasberryPatch
12:07 PM GMT on August 06, 2008
oh yes, Blzz just wonderful. how do you expect me to get red tomatoes? tomatoes need hot hot weather. with rain of course.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
58. Zachary Labe
11:56 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Looking long term wise I see some pretty below normal precipitation along with this cool weather pattern. So basically cool and dry the first half of August. Just wonderful, lol!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
57. TheRasberryPatch
11:51 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
i got 0.03" of rain. i can't take it. that is way too much. next time maybe not quite as much, OK ha ha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
56. Zachary Labe
11:46 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
jthal57- Most places did not see much rain. Pretty poor forecast on my part.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
55. jthal57
11:45 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
I will officially record my precip as a "T" this morning. Still following my typical summer of '08 pattern! Although most places around Northampton County only saw as much as .04".
54. Zachary Labe
11:34 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- I had a whopping .04inches this morning.

dean2007- Is that about normal for this time of year?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
53. dean2007
3:22 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
Sorry correction SSTs to my immediate southeast are running 50 to 60F and then over Nantucket Sound they are in the 70s. Gulf Stream is warm as always, anyways enough to sustain tropical cyclones.
52. dean2007
3:19 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
To our south they are running anywhere from around 80F by the Gulf Stream to 70F just over Nantucket Sound. To the east waters are much cooler, around 65F or cooler. Sully has a good approximation map for SSTs.
51. TheRasberryPatch
1:37 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
tell him to look where they have all the poisonous chemicals to kill rodents and bugs and weeds. the one i saw was solar powered. the one i bought a couple of years ago took 4 D size batteries. i told you so. ha ha ha i learned my lesson a couple of years ago. i know how those buggers can be and same with the rabbits.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
50. Zachary Labe
1:08 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good evening!!! Haha... Can you believe we did not get any rain today. Wow this forecast really busted badly. O well you win some and loose some. Yea not sure highs will reach 80degrees this weekend. Even the NWS forecast believes that...

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

More garden woes today. The groundhog ate all of my neighbors newly planted seedlings down to the ground. Also I found my chickenwire fence all mangled, but no plants destroyed. My neighbor is going to look for that pole you mentioned at Lowes. Thanks.

dean2007- Well that is good. Hopefully that will draw in some more moisture. What are water temperatures off Cape Cod?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
49. dean2007
1:03 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
They are forecast to become southerly as tomorrow progresses. Its quite cool here on Cape Cod, MA.
48. TheRasberryPatch
1:03 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
not going to hit 80 this weekend. what are you doing to me Blizz? first i fertilize in the beginning of June and i get hardly any rain for the summer. now you are telling me i am not going to see a hot weekend? thanks a lot Blizz. see if i help you out with your garden anymore. : ))
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
47. Zachary Labe
12:41 AM GMT on August 06, 2008
seflagamma- Good evening!!! Thanks for stopping in.

dean2007- Some instibility developed over western NY this afternoon and that is supporting the strong thunderstorms. There are absolutely no CAPE values over much of New England though. It will be interesting to watch the progression and expansion of the storm complex. One thing about eastern MA is they will probably be in a maritime flow. I see winds are easterly out of Hyannis.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
46. dean2007
11:23 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Blizzard, I believe there is a MCS forming over western NY. Do you know where this is going and what effects will it have on us tonight or tomorrow?
45. seflagamma
9:06 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Hi Bliz,

Good afternoon to you! Finally getting to do a little blog hopping this afternoon! It is great catching up with friends.

Enjoy your evening!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40920
44. dean2007
9:01 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Ok
43. Zachary Labe
8:47 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
dean2007- Probably not. Maybe a little in an embedded thunderstorm. Should just be a pretty boring stratiform rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
42. dean2007
8:42 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Thanks Blizzard. Do you expect any winds?
41. Zachary Labe
7:47 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
dean2007- I think the NMM model is suffering some convective feedback issues in terms of precipitation amounts. On the Cape I would expect .5-1inch rain totals.

PalmyraPunishment- Yea it is hard to believe. 70s here today with sprinkles and clouds. Seems like a November day.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
40. dean2007
7:46 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Man imagine if the NMM forecast track was a little further north with the low then I would be getting over 2" of rain. Blizzard, see that area to my southwest with enhanced precip over the ocean.
39. PalmyraPunishment
7:31 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Quoting Blizzard92:
PalmyraPunishment- First we have a cold May. Then one heat wave in June. July was a dud with severe weather confined to western Pennsylvania. Now August is looking chilly for the first half. Not even sure if highs will reach 80degrees this weekend.


Quoting Blizzard92:
PalmyraPunishment- First we have a cold May. Then one heat wave in June. July was a dud with severe weather confined to western Pennsylvania. Now August is looking chilly for the first half. Not even sure if highs will reach 80degrees this weekend.


70s in August? A little too early for that...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
38. Zachary Labe
7:31 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
dean2007- Here is a link to the model... Link.

PalmyraPunishment- Well thanks for stopping by this afternoon. Looking foward to the winter. No ice this year, lets hope for all snow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
37. PalmyraPunishment
7:28 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Blizz, to respond to your last comment direct towards me. I actually still read yours and Sulli's blogs as much as possible, as I'm trying to attain a higher level of knowledge on Summer weather activity. Unfortunately summer is usually an enormous blur for me and half the time I go to post or comment, and the phone rings -- "hello, hello!" and it's off I be.

That said, things are starting to wind down. Much like the summer. Fall will be here soon, and then Winter -- and maybe... juuuuuust maybe. We'll have some interesting weather (see also: non ice related) that will keep me inside long enough to inject the bloggings of you and sulli with some psuedo-sick humor and happy fun times!

Please storm!

- The Punisher
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
36. dean2007
7:27 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Thanks man. I can't really see the details, sorry for asking the same question again. I just like to hear the details of something coming.
35. Zachary Labe
7:26 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
PalmyraPunishment- First we have a cold May. Then one heat wave in June. July was a dud with severe weather confined to western Pennsylvania. Now August is looking chilly for the first half. Not even sure if highs will reach 80degrees this weekend.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
34. Zachary Labe
7:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Fshhead- Good afternoon!!! Feel free to stop by anytime!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
33. PalmyraPunishment
7:24 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Quoting Blizzard92:
***Severe weather threat has diminished and is really going to be non-existant. Still showers and thunderstorms should develop across the state, but thermodynamics are just not there for anything more than typical thunderstorms. I had a feeling this could happen. As each day got closer to the event, it looked less and less impressive. Also it sure is cool outside with temperatures in the 70s here where I am. New blog will be coming possibly tomorrow.


poopy...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
32. Zachary Labe
7:24 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Quoting dean2007:
Hey Blizzard, where do you think the track of the wave of low pressure will be? Also the effects on our weather here in SE MA?

I think comment #23 will answer your question.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
31. Fshhead
7:24 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Hey Blizz,
Just stopping by to say Howdy!!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
30. dean2007
7:23 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Hey Blizzard, where do you think the track of the wave of low pressure will be? Also the effects on our weather here in SE MA?
29. Zachary Labe
7:19 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
***Severe weather threat has diminished and is really going to be non-existant. Still showers and thunderstorms should develop across the state, but thermodynamics are just not there for anything more than typical thunderstorms. I had a feeling this could happen. As each day got closer to the event, it looked less and less impressive. Also it sure is cool outside with temperatures in the 70s here where I am. New blog will be coming possibly tomorrow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
28. PalmyraPunishment
7:17 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
here's my pseudo weather report:

it's sprinkling! amazing. let's go to Ollie Williams with our BlaccuWeather forecast, Ollie?

"IT'S GON RAIN!"

thanks, Ollie!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
27. dean2007
6:47 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Palmyra I agree, just something extreme would be nice once in awhile, without any injuries of course.
26. Zachary Labe
6:43 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
PalmyraPunishment- Hey! Where have you been? Gosh I know this has been a horribly boring summer. I am counting down the days to winter. Hardly any severe weather here in the Lower Susquehanna Valley this year. Usually this part of Pennsylvania is the most active in the state. Hope you can stop by more often!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
25. PalmyraPunishment
6:41 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Afternoon, all.

Is it incredibly morbid for me to wish we would get a storm like Chicago got last nite? Just once?

I mean, I don't want anybody hurt or put in jeopardy -- but watching people being forced to file out of Wrigley last night in fear of tornado was pretty wicked! It just seems like it's been a boring summer here, weather wise... not many heat waves, not many thunderstorms, not really cold, but not really warm.

Can I just get 1 extreme weather season here?!?! (Winter or Summer)

- The Punisher
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
24. sullivanweather
6:03 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Dean,

For sure.

Given the strength of AEW's so far this season, the MJO pulse should help maintain these waves across the central Atlantic.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
23. Zachary Labe
5:44 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
dean2007- As for the low pressure track my model choice for today is the NMM. I think the weak low will develop near Long Island and track just to the south of New England. The NMM develops plumes of moisture along the front up through New England with pretty decent rain totals of a inch or two.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
22. dean2007
5:23 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Thanks for the links and thanks for answering my question sully. Yeah I thought to myself it has no chance to effect us here in New England bcause of the abnormal trough season continuing. WHen the MJO upward pulse arrives mid Month, do you see something happening then?
21. Zachary Labe
5:10 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
dean2007- Link to NCEP models... Link. Link to Penn State Computer models... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
20. sullivanweather
5:08 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
Dean,

Ol' 99L doesn't have a bright future as a tropical system. There's too much subsidence in its path and upper level winds haven't been favorable. They do get more favorable in the near future but I really don't see how it'll overcome all that subsidence off the SE Coast. Then once the big trough comes digging down into the eastern US it should increase the southerly flow over the western Atlantic and should sweep whatever is there swiftly north. In all I'm not expecting much from 99L, or whats currently left of it.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
19. dean2007
5:08 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
This is what I wrote in Sully's blog and decided to paste it in here too:
Sully, I see three tracks the models have the area of low pressure moving tomorrow. The NAM is furthest north over northern New England (NH, VT and ME) the second area is the GFS taking it right over me (southern New England with the heaviest rain and possible storms and third the EURO takes the area of low pressure further south (over the Mid Atlantic). Now the further north this area is the better chance we could see some thunderstorms of the scattered to isolated variety but the closest this area moves towards us we get heavy rain and embedded storms. That's what I see in the models. Sully, can I have a link to the GFS and NAM again I think I lost it?
18. Zachary Labe
4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good afternoon!!! Alright I will have to look in my cabbage after the harvest. As far as Chicago, I think that line was a little stronger than a once in a year type storm. Tornadoes usually do not get that close to downtown. None the less Chicago has always been in a favored region for severe thunderstorms. I am hoping for rain also! After today chances for rain are not too high. Cross your fingers for rain today!

dean2007- Thanks. I have not really been following the tropics too closely other than Edouard. So I really have no thoughts on 99L other than models predict it to curve out to sea.

JDinWPA- Thanks for your answer!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
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Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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