January 1 2012 - March 1 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 8:12 PM GMT on December 31, 2011

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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Northwestern Pacific
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Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

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Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

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Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD



------------------------------------------------- --- ----

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1006 hPa

February
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W - 1004 hPa



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-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

Jaunary

Next ID BOB01/ARB01

------------------------------------------------- --

=======================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa
03F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
04F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
05F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
06F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
07F.NONAME - 994 hPa
08F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
09F.NONAME - 999 hPa

February
10F.NONAME - 991 hPa
11F.Cyril - 985 hPa
12F.Jasmine - 945 hPa (Within RSMC)
13F.NONAME - 1005 hPa

------------------------------------------------- --

==========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
05U.NONAME

February
12U.Jasmine - 978 hPa (moved east of 160E)


------------------------------------------------- ---


==========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

06U.NONAME
07U.Heidi - 975 hPa
11U.Iggy - 970 hPa

------------------------------------------------- -----

==========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa
05R.Chanda - 996 hPa
06R.Dando - 990 hPa
07R.Ethel - 988 hPa
08R.Funso - 936 hPa

February
09R.Giovanna - 932 hPa
10R.Hilwa - 993 hPa
11R.IRINA - 985 hPa
12R.NONAME - 996 hPa

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460. HadesGodWyvern
8:10 PM GMT on February 29, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IRINA (11-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 29 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (985 hPa) located at 16.6S 43.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
35 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 17.6S 43.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.2S 42.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 22.6S 40.1E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 23.5S 36.4E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Low level circulation center has tracked slowly westwards during the next 6 hours. Deep convective activity enforces and organizes in a curved band pattern, as the system is deepening.

The very good equatorward upper level outflow has combined today's to a strong poleward one, allowed a rapid intensification of the system during the next hours. On and beyond tomorrow Thursday, only the polar one is forecast to remain.

System is undergoing two opposite steering influences, in medium troposphere. The first one associated with an equatorial ridge located northward and the other one associated with the subtropical ridge located southward. Tomorrow Thursday, the system should accelerate south south-eastwards towards a col. On Friday as the subtropical highs rebuild the track should recurved west southwestwards.

This favorable environment should allow the system to reach tropical cyclone stage on Friday. Available numerical weather prediction forecast tracks are in good agreement to a landfall on the Mozambique coastline Saturday afternoon or on Sunday morning.The potential threatened areas remains difficult at this range to be precisely targeted but runs after runs concentrates in a region between Beira and Maputo.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
459. HadesGodWyvern
7:35 PM GMT on February 29, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 12-20112012
22:00 PM RET February 29 2012
==============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 12 (996 hPa) located at 13.9S 67.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
==============
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 14.8S 66.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 15.7S 65.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 17.6S 64.3E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 20.4S 66.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
================

The cloud pattern is still an irregular central dense overcast. Some significant fluctuations in size and shape of this central dense overcast appear associated to the occurrence of convective burst, and seems undergoing a little easterly upper level constraint . The system remains a small size inner-core system.

Low level inflow improves on the both sides. The upper level divergence remains impressive but always quite limited over the eastern side.

The system tracks now south southwestwards and is getting closer of the upper level ridge. Although some easterly shear could remain tomorrow, it appears likely that the system will gain a little bit of strength. Friday, environmental conditions should be at its best under the upper level ridge ... Present intensity forecast is rather low given that few or none of the guidance strengthen significantly the system until Friday ... However given the small size of the inner core, one could note that some stronger variations in intensity than presently indicated could be observed.

From Saturday to the end of the forecast period, a new northerly vertical wind shear constraint should established. However most of the guidance deepen the system by that time. Further analysis show that this intensification may come from baroclinic process ... Consequently, en extratropical transition may begin Sunday.

The system should round the subtropical highs located to its east and should be Friday night ahead of a new upper to mid level trough. The track could take by that time a southeastwards motion between the trough located to its southwest and the subtropical ridge to its northeast . After that, the predicted scenario is westwards turn on the northern side of the subtropical ridge. ECMWF ensemble forecast show some significant spread around this "s" track.

Inhabitants of Rodriguez Island should monitor the progress of this system, as a more serious threat could not be ruled out during the next few days ...

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
458. HadesGodWyvern
4:07 PM GMT on February 29, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IRINA (11-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 29 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (991 hPa) located at 16.0S 43.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
in northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.8S 43.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 18.4S 42.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 22.7S 40.1E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 23.7S 36.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The low level circulation center has moved generally westward over the past 6 hours. 0600z AM UTC fix is relocated near 16.2S 43.8E.

Convection wraps of 0,5 around the low level circulation center Upper level divergence is improving westward (cf. water vapor channel).

System is undergoing two competing zonal steering flows in the mid-troposphere, with the near-equatorial ridge and the subtropical ridge. Tomorrow (Thursday) , system should accelerate south-south-westward towards a barometric col. On Friday, the track should curve west southwestward with the rebuilding of the subtropical high pressure.

System is actually almost under the axis of the upper tropospheric ridge, axed near 17s. Upper vertical wind shear is weak. A good outflow channel exists equatorward. It is forecast to be replaced by tomorrow by a good outflow channel poleward.

Environmental conditions remain also favorable for intensification of the system that should reach the stage of mature tropical cyclone for the forecast landfall on Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning north of Maputo.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
457. HadesGodWyvern
3:52 PM GMT on February 29, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 12-20112012
16:00 PM RET February 29 2012
==============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 12 (997 hPa) located at 13.5S 67.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 9 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
==============
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 14.2S 66.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 15.2S 65.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 17.7S 65.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 20.9S 66.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
================

The cloud pattern has not significantly improved during the last 6 hours. It is still an irregular central dense overcast less than 90 NM in diameter on visible 0924 AM UTC N19 imagery. Some significant fluctuation in size and shape of this central dense overcast appear associated to the occurrence of convective burst. The system remains a small size inner-core system.

Low level inflow improves on the both sides. The upper level divergence remains impressive and seems to improve over the eastern side according to latest satellite pics.

The system tracks now southwestwards and is getting closer of the upper level ridge. Although some easterly shear could remain tomorrow, it appears likely that the system will gain a little bit of strength. Friday, environmental conditions should be at its best under the upper level ridge ... Present intensity forecast is rather low given that few or none of the guidance strengthen significantly the system until Friday ... However given the small size of the inner core, one could note that some stronger variations in intensity than presently indicated could be observed.

From Saturday to the end of the forecast period, a new northerly vertical wind shear constraint should established. However most of the guidance deepen the system by that time. Further analysis show that this intensification may come from baroclinic process ... Consequently, en extratropical transition may begin Sunday.

The system should round the subtropical highs located to its east and should be Friday night ahead of a new upper to mid level trough. The track could take by that time a south eastwards motion between the trough located to its southwest and the subtropical ridge to its northeast . After that, the predicted scenario is westwards turn on the northern side of the subtropical ridge. ECMWF ensemble forecast show some significant spread around this "s" track.

If the present track forecast a lower threat for Rodriguez, inhabitants of Rodrigues island should monitor the progress of this system, as a more serious threat could not be ruled out during the next few days ...

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
456. HadesGodWyvern
7:16 AM GMT on February 29, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 29 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Irina (993 hPa) located at 16.6S 43.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 45 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T 2.5/2.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 17.5S 43.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 18.6S 43.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 22.3S 40.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.9S 36.9E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

It is still difficult to locate accurately the low level circulation center, but it is probably very close from the coast (cf. Mean sea level pressure 993hpa at Besalampy at 0300 AM UTC). According to the last microwave imagery (F17 at 0301 AM UTC) cloud pattern remains poorly organized. Last animated METEOSAT pictures depict fluctuating deep convection close to the estimated center.

Most of available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to track globally southwestward on the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. Vertical wind shear keeps on weakening aloft. Upper divergence is rather favorable and is expected to improve poleward through 72 hours.

Within this favorable environment, and as the low level circulation center is removing progressively from the Malagasy coast, system is forecast to intensify and should reach tropical cyclone stage on Friday. Available numerical weather prediction forecast tracks are in good agreement for a landfall on the Mozambique coastline. The potential threatened areas remains difficult at this range to be precisely targeted but runs after runs concentrates in a region between Beira and Maputo.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
455. HadesGodWyvern
7:08 AM GMT on February 29, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 12-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 29 2012
==============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 12 (997 hPa) located at 12.6S 68.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
==============
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 13.3S 67.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 14.3S 66.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.7S 64.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 18.7S 64.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
================

The cloud pattern is now a cold clouds top central dense overcast. Latest burst of convection has started at 0300 AM UTC. Microwave imagery reveal a rather small core system and it is possible that the system may have already reached the moderate tropical storm level.

Low level inflow improves on the both sides. The upper level trough located yesterday closed to the southwest of the system is now moving away allowing an improvement of the upper level divergence as seen with the impressive outflow pattern (more limited in the eastern sector however).

The system should be to the north of the upper level ridge until Thursday night and experiencing some easterly shear. So intensification should be rather limited until that time. Friday, environmental conditions should become favorable under the upper level ridge but a new northerly vertical wind shear constraint should established on and after Saturday. Overall, the potential of intensification appears rather low ... However given the small size of the inner core, some stronger variations in intensity than presently indicated could be observed.

The track forecast is significantly adjusted to the west based on first 0000 AM UTC guidance output. The system should round the subtropical highs located to its east and should be Friday night ahead of a new upper to mid level trough. The track could take by that time a southeastwards motion. At the end of the forecast, a weakening system should track westwards within a low level steering flow.

Inhabitants of Rodriguez island should start to monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
454. HadesGodWyvern
2:11 AM GMT on February 29, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 12-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 29 2012
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 12 (999 hPa) located at 12.5S 69.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 13.3S 69.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.5S 68.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.6S 67.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.0S 68.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
================

Since 1800 PM UTC, deep convective activity has consolidated near the center and organized on a curved band pattern. SSMI F15 2310 PM UTC confirms this better feature. Low level inflow improves on the both sides and easterly vertical wind shear has temporarily weakened but is forecast to enforce back today late and tomorrow Thursday. Numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement to forecast a globally southwards motion. Over this expected track, environmental conditions should become favorable on Friday under the upper level ridge but a new northerly vertical wind shear constraint should established on and after Saturday. Potential for intensification is therefore limited at short or medium range.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
453. HadesGodWyvern
2:04 AM GMT on February 29, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 29 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Irina (994 hPa) located at 16.3S 43.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 45 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.7S 42.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 17.3S 42.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 20.3S 41.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.4S 38.0E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Low level circulation center remains very difficult to precisely localize. Deep convective activity enforces and organizes in a curved band pattern in the west of the estimated center. Most of available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to track globally southwest on the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. Vertical wind shear keeps on weakening aloft as previously forecast allowing the system to intensify. On Wednesday and Thursday, the very good equatorward upper level outflow is expected to combine to a strong poleward one, environmental conditions should progressively improve and become favorable for significant further re-intensification. An oversea track in the middle of the channel within this favorable environment should allow the system to reach tropical cyclone stage on Friday.

Available numerical weather prediction forecast tracks are in good agreement to a landfall on the Mozambique coastline. The potential threatened areas remains difficult at this range to be precisely targeted but runs after runs concentrates in a region between Beira and Maputo.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
452. HadesGodWyvern
1:50 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET February 28 2012
==========================

Area of Disturbed Weather (IRINA)
======================

refer to current tropical cyclone advisory issued at 12:00 PM UTC..

More eastern of disturbance NR 11
========================

a low estimated at 1001 hPa, is approximately centered near 11.8S 69.5E, with winds about 15-20 knots.
In addition to a moderate southeasterly wind shear, the both zonal westerly and easterly flows not efficient are an hindrance for rapid cyclogenesis.

On and after Wednesday, monsoon inflow becomes more direct, poleward low level inflow also improves (phased with a rebuilding high pressures in the south) and vertical wind shear is expected
to weaken, the low should then deepen significantly. Numerical weather prediction models strongly divergent until yesterday, seem to be quite agree with a globally southwards track.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of a tropical depression is fair to good with the zone of disturbed weather nr11 (Irina).
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
451. HadesGodWyvern
1:39 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
ZONE PERTURBEE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 28 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Area Of Disturbed Weather, Former Irina (997 hPa) located at 16.3S 44.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 1.5/1.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.3S 43.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.4S 43.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 17.9S 42.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.3S 40.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Low level circulation has come back over seas yesterday, then has tracked along the northwestern coast of madagascar. Low level circulation center remains very difficult to localize. Current position is estimated thanks to 0900z and 1200 PM UTC Malagasy observations (Belasampy and Majunga) and Juan de Nova.The clockwise circulation is expected to go far from the coast in the next hours, coming back over a complete overseas environment.

Most of available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to track globally west on the northern edge of subtropical ridge existing in the south for the next 24 hours, then southwestwards. The moderate easterly wind shear, is always limiting system intensification, but it is forecast to weaken.

Easterly wind shear should limit potential for regeneration but this shear is expected to weaken. On wednesday and thursday, the very good equatorward upper level outflow is expected to combine to a strong poleward one, environmental conditions should progressively improve and become favorable for significative further re-intensification. An oversea track in the middle of the channel within this favourable environment should allow ex-Irina to reach tropical cyclone stage on wednesday. Beyond an easterly upper level constraint should weaken it on Saturday.

Numerical weather prediction available forecast tracks invite the inhabitants of the Mozambique coastline to the greatest caution. It's currently not possible to precisely target the potential threatened areas. The all long Mozambique coastline from 18.0s to 27.0s should be influences directly or indirectly by this system.

Current intensity does not justify issuance of regular warning. It remains however closely monitored in relationship with its potential for intensification.

For further information about this system when no tropical cyclone forecast advisory (WTIO30) is issued, refer to bulletin AWIO20 for cyclonic activity and significant tropical weather in the southwest Indian ocean issued by the RSMC daily at 1200 PM UTC.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
450. HadesGodWyvern
7:22 AM GMT on February 27, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 27 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Irina (unknown presure) located at 15.3S 46.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.1S 45.4E - 15 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 17.0S 43.6E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.3S 42.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.0S 41.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

Low level circulation center remains very difficult to localize. Current position is estimated thanks to 0300 AM UTC Malagasy observations (Nosy-be, Atsohily and Majunga). Within the next 48 hours, available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to keep on tracking west southwestwards and on slowing down gradually on the northern edge of subtropical ridge existing in the south. On this forecast track, as it shifts along the northwestern Malagasy coastline, it is expected to undergo a moderate easterly wind shear. This conditions might limit system intensification. Associated heavy rainfalls might affect the northwestern areas of Madagascar an the eastern Mozambique coastline (between 14s and 18s) and should temporarily occur over Mayotte and Comoros archipelago.

Wednesday and Thursday, system is expected to undergo two opposite steering influences. The first one associated with an equatorial ridge located northward (inducing an eastward motion) and the other one associated with the subtropical ridge located southward (inducing a westward motion). System could therefore remains globally quasi-stationary and slowly intensify (weakening wind-shear, favorable sea surface temperature on the middle of Mozambique channel).

Beyond, subtropical ridge might become back the main steering flow and system should take back a west-southwestward track by continuing to intensify. Uncertainty is poor for the track at medium range. Available numerical weather prediction models forecast a more or less early landfall on Mozambique (track is more or less north). Members of the ECMWF ensemble system is also located northern than the deterministic track. RSMC official forecast track is a compromise of these options. Forecast intensity has been downgraded compare to previous forecast.

Inhabitants of the northern channel area (including Comoros archipelago, north-western coasts of Madagascar and Mozambique coasts) should closely monitor the evolution of this system.

Current intensity does not justify issuance of regular warning. It remains however closely monitored in relationship with its potential for intensification. For further information about this system when no tropical cyclone forecast advisory (WTIO30) is issued, refer to bulletin awio20 for cyclonic activity and significant tropical weather in the southwest Indian ocean issued by the RMSC daily at 1200 PM UTC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
449. HadesGodWyvern
5:21 AM GMT on February 27, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 27 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Irina (unknown presure) located at 14.7S 47.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.4S 45.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.0S 44.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.9S 42.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.5S 41.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

It is very difficult to localize the low level clockwise circulation. Current position is extrapoled on last available microwave (1705 PM UTC F18) and latest satellite infrared imagery. Low level circulation center is likely located inland near Analalava. Deep convection is present south of the system inland and west of the system oversea (moderate easterly vertical wind-shear). 1828 PM UTC ASCAT swath is not centered but seems to show a 20-25 kt clockwise circulation.

Within the next 36/48 hours, available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to keep on west southwestward track by decelerating very progressively on the northern edge of subtropical ridge existing to the south. On this track, it undergoes a moderate easterly wind shear and moves along the north-western coasts of Madagascar. This conditions might limit system intensification. Associated heavy rainfalls might affect north-west of Madagascar and should temporary impinge Comoros archipelago.

Wednesday and Thursday, system should be influenced by two contradictory steering flows ; one associated with an equatorial ridge located northward (inducing an eastward motion) and another one associated with the subtropical ridge located southward (inducing a westward motion). Consequently, system could remain globally quasi-stationary and slowly intensify (weaker wind-shear, favorable sea surface temperature on the middle of Mozambique channel).

Beyond, subtropical ridge might become again the main steering flow and system should take again a west southwestward track by continuing to intensify. Uncertainty is important for the track at the end of forecast period. Numerical weather prediction models forecast a more or less early landfall on Mozambique (track is more or less north). Ensemble ECMWF run is also more north that deterministic model. RSMC official track is a compromise of these options. Intensity has been downgraded in regard to previous forecast.

Inhabitants of the northern channel area (including Comoros archipelago, north-western coasts of Madagascar and Mozambique coasts) should closely monitor the evolution of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC Irina will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
448. HadesGodWyvern
9:01 PM GMT on February 26, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 26 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Irina (unknown presure) located at 14.2S 49.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.0S 47.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.8S 45.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.4S 42.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.5S 41.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

It is difficult to localize the low level clockwise circulation, but it is very likely that Irina has made its landfall at 1500 PM UTC between Fanambana and Sambava. 1500 PM UTC synopsis reports from Sambava, Diego-Suarez and nosy be show that winds have clearly decreased. Since 1200 PM UTC, a cluster has blown up west of low level circulation center, but general system structure is not well and has not improved.

Within the next 48 hours, available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to keep on west-southwestward track by moving rapidly on the northern edge of subtropical ridge existing to the south. On this track, it undergoes a moderate to rather strong easterly wind shear by going along the north-western coasts of Madagascar. This conditions might limit system intensification. Within the next 2 days, heavy rainfalls might affect large areas of north-western Madagascar and should temporary impinge Comoros archipelago.

From Tuesday evening, environmental conditions should improve (lower shear, high sea surface temperature over the Mozambique channel) and significant intensification is expected.

During the same time, system should be influenced by two contradictory steering flows ; one associated with an equatorial ridge located northward (inducing an eastward motion) and another one associated with the subtropical ridge located southward (inducing a westward motion). Consequently, the track should significantly slow down within the middle of next week. Beyond, subtropical ridge could weaken and allow a more poleward track.

Inhabitants of the northern channel area (including Comoros archipelago, north-western coasts of Madagascar and Mozambique coasts) should closely monitor the evolution of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC Irina will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
447. HadesGodWyvern
2:52 PM GMT on February 26, 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET February 26 2012
==========================

Moderate Tropical Storm Irina
=======================

See tropical cyclone advisories issued at 12:00 PM UTC for details

Between 60E and 75E and along 10S
=======================

Thunderstorm activity is strong within the Inter-tropical convergence zone and conditions appear conducive for cyclogenesis within the next few days over the area (lower shear, good low level monsoon inflow and good low level convergence). No defined surface closed circulation is evident at this time but it appears likely that a significant system should develop over the area during the next few days.

Over the extreme east of our area of responsibility, convection remains poorly organized. There is no evidence of a closed circulation and conditions appear less favorable for development mainly due to marginal low level inflow.

For the next 24 to 36 hours, the potential for development of another tropical depression is fair to good (suspect area between 60E and 75E).
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
446. HadesGodWyvern
2:17 PM GMT on February 26, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IRINA (11-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 26 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (995 hPa) located at 13.8S 50.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
============
In the southwestern quadrant up to 70 NM from the center and in the northwestern quadrant up to 130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.2S 48.2E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 15.2S 46.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.3S 42.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.4S 41.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Synopsis report from Antalaha (between 0500 AM UTC and 0900 AM UTC and then at 1200 PM UTC), Sambava (at 0700 AM UTC then no obs) and Digo-Suarez (between 0700 AM UTC and 0900 AM UTC then no obs) shown mean 10 min winds in the gale force range (35-45 kt). Consequently, the Madagascar Weather Services named the system Irina. Those strong winds seems to be associated with the stong burst of convection that occured this morning just west of the estimated low level circulation center. This convective features is now collapsing.

Despite this strong winds observed, the cloud pattern of Irina is still miles away from a moderate tropical storm signature

The system is moving rapidly westwards on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge that have built back to the south. It undergoes a moderate easterly constraint so the center is estimated to be just to the east of the main convective mass. This pattern should continue within the next two days. On this track, the system should make landfall within the next hours over the northern tip of Madagascar between Diego-Suarez and Sambava (likely near Iharana). Associated heavy rainfalls should affect large areas of northern Madagascar during the next two days. Rainfall rate in 24hour period of 100-150 mm is likely.

Wednesday, environmental conditions should improve (lower shear, high sea surface temperature over the Mozambique channel) and significant intensification is expected.

By that time, the system should be influenced by two contradictory steering flow; one associated with an equatorial ridge located to its north and induced an easterly motion and another one associated with the subtropical ridge located to the south and induced a westwards motion. Consequently, the track should slow down significantly during the middle of next week. Beyond, the subtropical ridge could weaken and allow a more polewards track.

Inhabitants of the northeastern coasts of Madagascar and the northern channel area (including the Comoros archipelago, the northwestern coasts of Madagascar and the Mozambique coasts) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC Irina will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
445. HadesGodWyvern
7:05 AM GMT on February 26, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
ZONE PERTURBEE 11-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 26 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather 11 (997 hPa) located at 13.2S 51.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 33.7S 63.7E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 14.6S 47.0E - 20 knots (Zone Perturbée)
48 HRS: 15.9S 43.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.1S 41.3E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

The system could reach at most the tropical depression stage before landfall over the northern tip of Madagascar later today.

Although, convective activity strengthened and concentrated during the last 24 hours, the system still present an ill-defined low level circulation with a center difficult to localize even with microwave imagery.

The system is moving rapidly westwards on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge that have built back to the south. It undergoes a moderate easterly constraint so the center is estimated to be just to the east of the main convective mass. This pattern should continue within the next two days. On this track, the system should make landfall later today over the northern tip of Madagascar between Diego-Suarez and Sambava (likely near Iharana). Given the current conditions and the short timing before landfall, significant development appear as a low probability possibility (the system may reach the tropical depression level but not much). However, associated heavy rainfalls should affect large areas of northern Madagascar during the next two days. Rainfall in 24 hour period of 100-150 mm is likely.

Wednesday, environmental conditions should improve (lower shear, high sea surface temperature over the Mozambique channel) and significant intensification is expected.

By that time, the system should be influenced by two contradictory steering flow; one associated with an equatorial ridge located to its north and induced an easterly motion and another one associated with the subtropical ridge located to the south and induced a westwards motion. Consequently, the track should slow down significantly during the middle of next week. Beyond, the subtropical ridge could weaken and allow a more polewards track.

Inhabitants of the northeastern coasts of Madagascar and the northern channel area (including the Comoros archipelago, the northwestern coasts of Madagascar and the Mozambique coasts) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
444. HadesGodWyvern
2:51 AM GMT on February 26, 2012
Madagascar Meteorological Warning For 92S

Warning Nr NR02/11 26/02/2012 0100 UTC --
System / PERTURBATION TROPICALE --
Name UNNAMED
Position NEAR 13° 7 S - 51° 7 E 26/02/2012 0000 UTC --
Estimated minimum central Pressure 998 HPA --
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre 25 KT --
Gust maxi / Rafales maxi --
CI Number (Dvorak scale) CI 2.0 --
Movement over the past 06 hours W/WNW 14 KT (26 KM/H) --

Other information THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
443. HadesGodWyvern
12:47 AM GMT on February 26, 2012


The system should make landfall on the northeastern part of Madagascar tomorrow morning..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
442. HadesGodWyvern
2:09 PM GMT on February 25, 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET February 25 2012
==========================

Between 50E and 60E, where convection has developed at the end of the last night, but last data MW (TRMM of 0536 AM UTC) does not show any organization or clear clockwise circulation. however a low seems to develop near 12.6S 55.6E as pression have clearly decreased on this area during the next 24 hours ( -2hPa on Tromelin, -3.9hPa on Algalega), mean sea level pressure in this area is estimated at 1000 hPa (buoy NR 14041 at 1000 AM UTC with a pression of 1001.2 hPa ).

between 65E and 75E, where convection is strongly southeasterly sheared.

East of 85E, where convection remains poorly organized. Available numerical weather prediction models analyze the low north of Tromelin island, and deepen it progressively with a quick westwards track towards north of Madagascar, on the northern edge of the subtropical belt rebuilding southward. Monsoon feeding should remain favorable and trade-wind feeding should improve. SST are favorably. Upper vertical wind shear should remain moderate, north of the upper tropospheric ridge, and should slow the deepening of this system.

Secondly, numerical weather prediction models analyze a broad clockwise circulation within the intertropical convergence zone, east of 85E, but don't deepen it significantly. Indeed, this area should remain under strong upper vertical wind shear.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor. Beyond, potential becomes fair to important for the low north Tromelin.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
441. HadesGodWyvern
7:05 AM GMT on February 23, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE, FORMER HILWA (10-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 23 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extatropical Depression, Former Hilwa (993 hPa) located at 29.7S 64.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 17 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
60 mn radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 220 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 320 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 33.7S 63.7E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
24 HRS: 37.9S 64.6E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
48 HRS: 52.7S 70.3E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
=======================
The system continues to make its extra-tropical transition. Strong winds are mainly present in the eastern part of the system due to gradient effect with subtropical high pressures situated in the southeast (locally storm force winds in the southeastern quadrant). Mean sea level pressure is maintained at 993 hPa (thanks to obs 16565 buoy).

System is still embedded within deep northerlies between the subtropical highs to the east and an upper to mid level trough to the west: ex-Hilwa is expected to keep a southwards then south southeastwards track. After a recent slight slow down of the motion, it might clearly accelerate after 24 hours.

In relationship to an upper level forcing associated with a potential vorticity anomaly existing in the west, ex-Hilwa might maintain its intensity within the next 48 hours.

Friday, the system should merge with a cold front before pass over Kerguelen Island where brief gale force winds are likely on Saturday morning.

Last warning for this system
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
440. HadesGodWyvern
1:47 AM GMT on February 23, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE, FORMER HILWA (10-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 23 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extatropical Depression, Former Hilwa (993 hPa) located at 27.9S 63.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 24 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
from the center extending up to 140 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
from the center extending up to 95 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 220 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 320 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 31.8S 62.6E - 45 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
24 HRS: 35.8S 63.0E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
48 HRS: 49.2S 69.9E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

The partial ASCAT pass of 1807z suggest that the system has begun its extratropical transition with gales force winds now located far away from the center. Pressure obs from buoy 23951 and 16565 show that the system deepened between 1800z and 2200z with a mean sea level pressure estimated at 993 hPa according to data from buoy 16565 (18z mean sea level pressure estimate review at 996 hPa according to data from buoy 23951). As expected in the previous advisory, this deepening comes from an upper level forcing associated with a potential vorticity anomaly coming from the west: water vapor imagery show that the dark tongue area, associated to a potential vorticity max is now very close and to the west of the center of ex-Hilwa (along 62.0E).

The system is still embedded within deep northerlies between the subtropical highs to the east and an upper to mid level trough to the west: ex-Hilwa is expected to remain on a generally fast southwards then south-southeastwards track, although some slight slow down of the motion is possible within the next 24 hours.

Friday, the system should merge with a cold front before pass over Kerguelen Island where brief gale force winds are likely Saturday morning.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
439. SPLbeater
8:19 PM GMT on February 22, 2012
you should now be happy, there is no active storm systems worldwide!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
438. HadesGodWyvern
7:52 PM GMT on February 22, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 22 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (995 hPa) located at 25.3S 63.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
from the center extending up to 35 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern and southwestern quadrants and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 30.0S 63.0E - 45 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
24 HRS: 33.5S 62.6E - 45 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
48 HRS: 44.8S 67.9E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

The center is located about 1 degree to the west of residual deep convection.

The system is now embedded within deep northerlies between the subtropical highs to the east and an upper to mid level trough to the west: Hilwa is expected to track globally southwards then south southeastwards with an increase in forward speed.

Water vapor imagery show that a dark tongue area roughly axed along 60.0E and associated to a potential vorticity max, is getting closer to the system by its west. ECMWF model suggest that this feature should interact with hilwa later tonight and tomorrow and induced a significant strengthening of the circulation over this period (mainly in the eastern semi-circle). As this intensification is due to baroclinic process, the system is still classified extratropical in the short range of this forecast as previously.

Friday night, the system should merge with a cold front just before pass over Kerguelen Island where brief gale force winds are likely Saturday early morning.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
437. HadesGodWyvern
1:23 PM GMT on February 22, 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET February 22 2012
==============================

ECMWF ensemble System and Most of the available deterministic numerical weather prediction models suggest that 2 lows may form at the end of the week within the Intertropical convergence zone; one to the northeast of the Mascareignes Islands and the other one over the far east of our area of responsibility.

For the next 24 hours, there is no potential for development of another tropical depression. The potential becomes poor from Friday, fair from Saturday and good from Sunday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
436. HadesGodWyvern
1:20 PM GMT on February 22, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 22 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (995 hPa) located at 23.5S 63.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern and southwestern quadrants and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 27.6S 63.2E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
24 HRS: 32.3S 62.6E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
48 HRS: 42.0S 66.4E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
=======================

System has accelerated southwards and in relationship with this motion resists longer than previously expected under the northwesterly vertical wind shear constraint. Hilwa's low level circulation center remains however totally exposed on the northwestern edge of the main deep convective activity. Subtropical highs in its south are shifting eastwards and the system is expected to keep on tracking globally southwards then south southeastwards. On this track, vertical wind shear should keep on strengthening and Hilwa is expected to rapidly weaken within the next hours then to begin extratropical transition from Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
435. HadesGodWyvern
6:42 AM GMT on February 22, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 22 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (995 hPa) located at 22.3S 63.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern and southwestern quadrants and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 24.8S 63.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 29.0S 64.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 39.7S 65.7E - 35 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=======================

Undergoing the strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear, Hilwa's low level circulation center is totally exposed at about 40 NM away in the northeast of the deep convective activity. Subtropical highs in its south are shifting eastwards and the system is expected to keep on tracking globally south southeastwards. On this track, vertical wind shear should keep on strengthening and Hilwa is expected to rapidly weaken today before beginning extratropical transition on Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
434. HadesGodWyvern
3:57 AM GMT on February 22, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 22 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (994 hPa) located at 21.3S 63.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
15-20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant and southwestern quadrants, and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 23.2S 63.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 26.0S 63.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 36.7S 65.0E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

The system seems to be sheared with the center on the northwestern edge ogf convection on the last satellite imagery (noaa18 2231 PM UTC).

The system is located ahead of an upper to mid-level trough located to its southwest (well depicted on water vapor imagery to the southeast of Madagascar). Within this pattern, Hilwa is expected to track generally south to south southwestwards and then southwards with a gradual increase in forward speed within the next few days.

The moderate vertical wind shear may now limiting the potential of intensification within environmental conditions neutral or slightly favorable (stronger upper level divergence south of the system). Then northwesterly upper level wind shear is expected to increase sharply. System is forecast to begin an extratropical transition Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
433. HadesGodWyvern
11:39 PM GMT on February 21, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 21 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (993 hPa) located at 20.2S 63.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
15-30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 50 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 21.2S 63.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.4S 62.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 32.4S 63.2E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

After a period of weakening just after 0600 AM UTC, thunderstorm activity has flared up once again close to the center since 0930 AM UTC. On satellite infrared imagery the system shows a large irregular central dense overcast pattern.


The southwards turn suspected this morning is confirmed. The westwards motion stopped just after 0000 AM UTC. Since that time, Hilwa has followed a stair step track. The system is rounding the western side of the subtropical ridge and is located ahead of an upper to mid-level trough located to its southwest (well depicted on water vapor imagery to the southeast of Madagascar). Within this pattern, Hilwa is expected to track generally south southwestwards and then southwards with a gradual increase in forward speed within the next few days.

Up to 24 hours, environmental conditions still remain neutral or slightly favorable (stronger upper level divergence south of the system). Beyond, northwesterly upper level wind shear is expected to increase sharply. System is forecast to begin an extratropical transition Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
432. HadesGodWyvern
1:35 PM GMT on February 21, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 21 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (994 hPa) located at 19.9S 63.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
15-30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 50 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 21.2S 63.2E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.0S 62.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 30.1S 62.7E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

After a period of weakening just after 0600 AM UTC, thunderstorm activity has flared up once again close to the center since 0930 AM UTC.

The southwards turn suspected this morning is confirmed. The westwards motion stopped just after 00z. Since that time, Hilwa has followed a stair step track. The system is rounding the western side of the subtropical ridge and is located ahead of an upper to mid-level trough located to its southwest (well depicted on wv imagery to the southeast of Madagascar). Within this pattern, Hilwa is expected to track generally south southwestwards and then southwards with a gradual increase in forward speed within the next few days.

Hilwa is currently at its closest point approach of Rodrigues Island to the southeast. A direct hit appears ruled out now. The island is now located in the northwestern quadrant with very few thunderstorm activity according to latest microwave imagery.

Up to 24 hours, environmental conditions still remain neutral or slightly favorable (stronger upper level divergence south of the system). Beyond, northwesterly upper level wind shear is expected to increase sharply. System is forecast to begin an extratropical transition Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
431. HadesGodWyvern
7:24 AM GMT on February 21, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 21 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (993 hPa) located at 19.3S 64.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.2S 63.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 21.5S 63.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 27.5S 63.1E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
72 HRS: 37.4S 65.1E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Overall presentation is significantly better than 24 hours ago, suggesting a slightly more intense system than the current analysis. However, convective pattern on microwave imagery suggest that the system is basically at the same strength over the last 6 hours.

Hilwa is located below the axis of the upper tropospheric ridge and the upper level wind shear is weak (cf. CIMSS analysis). Rather pretty cirrus expansion in the southern semi-circle.

System is rounding the western side of the subtropical ridge and is located ahead of an upper to mid-level trough located to its southwest (well depicted on water vapor imagery to the southeast of Madagascar). Latest microwave fix (SSMIS pass of 0121 AM UTC and 0349 AM UTC) suggest that the system has begun a sharp south southwestwards turn. The track forecast is adjusted accordingly. Some fluctuations in the heading are likely within the next few hours. The system is expected to pass later today or tonight close the southeast coasts of Rodriguez Island. However a direct hit still cannot be ruled out. According to latest satellite imagery, weather conditions appears to deteriorate over the island from the south.

Up to 24hours, environmental conditions should remain neutral or slightly favorable (favorable in altitude, but marginal in the lower levels) and system intensity is expected to remain more or less steady. Beyond, northwesterly upper level wind shear is expected to increase sharply. System is forecast to begin an extratropical transition at the end of the forecast (on Thursday).

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
430. HadesGodWyvern
7:18 AM GMT on February 21, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
9:00 AM JST February 21 2012
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 9.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
429. HadesGodWyvern
2:39 AM GMT on February 21, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 21 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (994 hPa) located at 19.2S 64.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.6S 63.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 20.8S 62.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 24.6S 62.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 35.5S 64.4E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

An important central dense overcast has developed above the center of Hilwa since 19/1400z under the diurnal effect and the lowering of the upper level constraint. Last ir satellite pictures shows that this central dense overcast is weakening. However recent micro-wave imagery (cf. N19 at 2028 PM UTC) suggests that organization of the convection didn't improve below the central dense overcast.

The low level center is difficult to locate accurately.

Hilwa is located below the axis of the upper tropospheric ridge and the upper level wind shear is weak (cf. CIMSS analysis). Lower level environmental conditions are marginal : monsoon feeding is poor. Dry air encompass the system (cf. Animated mimic-TPW of CIMSS ). Sea surface temperatures are favorable north of 26.0s.

Within the next 24 hours, system is expected to recurve southwest,transiting very close to Rodrigues Island, and then southward beyond, under the steering influence of the mid tropospheric ridge in its east. Numerical weather prediction models are in tight agreement for this track.

Up to 24 hours, environmental conditions should remain neutral (favorable in altitude, but marginal in the lower levels) and system intensity is expected to remain more or less steady. At 24/36tau and beyond, northwesterly upper level wind shear is expected to increase sharply. System is forecast to begin an extratropical transition at the end of the forecast (on Thursday).

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
428. HadesGodWyvern
9:36 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
3:00 AM JST February 21 2012
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
427. HadesGodWyvern
9:31 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 20 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (994 hPa) located at 18.8S 64.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T 3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.4S 63.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 20.2S 62.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.4S 62.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.5S 63.6E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection has built over the center of the system since 1400 PM UTC. Hilwa is located below the axis of the upper tropospheric ridge and the upper level wind shear is weak (cf. CIMSS analysis). Lower level environmental conditions are marginal : monsoon feeding remains poor. Sea surface temperature are favorable north of 26s.

Within the next 24 hours, system is expected to recurve south-west and then south southwestward under the steering influence of the mid tropospheric ridge in its east.

Up to 24 hours, environmental conditions should little change and the intensity of the system should little change. At 36 hours and beyond, northwesterly upper level wind shear is expected to increase sharply and system is forecast to weaken rapidly and merge with a polar trough by 7 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
426. HadesGodWyvern
4:02 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Final tropical cyclone advisory on this system unless system re-intensifies
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
425. HadesGodWyvern
3:59 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 20 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (995 hPa) located at 18.9S 65.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
40-60 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.1S 64.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 19.9S 63.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.0S 62.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 27.5S 64.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

0441 AM UTC ASCAT swath shows an improving low level circulation within the last 12 hours in the western semi-cercle. TRMM data of 0659 AM UTC suggest that convection is organizing into curved band around the center.

System is expected to keep on tracking west southwestward then southwestward around the highs of low troposphere and finally southward Wednesday evacuating with the trough.

The weakening of the vertical wind shear on the system , and the temporally polar outflow channel building with the approaching upper level trough give a gap of intensification of 24 to 36 hours. However in relationship with a lack of low level inflow (mainly equatorward), intensification of the system may remain laborious.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
424. HadesGodWyvern
3:52 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 20 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Filling In Depression, Former Giovanna (1001 hPa) located at 24.9S 53.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant with gradient effect

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 23.2S 52.7E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)
24 HRS: 22.0S 52.5E - se Dissipant

Additional Information
=====================

On the last cc satellite imagery the low level circulation is completely exposed very far northwest of the convection.The system has weakened very rapidly.

Its steering flow is now located in lower troposphere. The track of the residual low is a north northwestward recurve due to the high subtropicales rebuilding in the south of the system.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are very defavourable with a strong westerly then southwesterly vertical wind shear due to an upper tropospheric trough transiting southeast of madagascar.

The residual low is forecast to fill up, within a broad area of low pressure over the mascarene islands.

This is the last warning about this system unless re-intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
423. HadesGodWyvern
3:39 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
18:00 PM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.8N 111.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 8.9N 110.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
422. HadesGodWyvern
7:51 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 20 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 19.0S 65.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.2S 64.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.6S 63.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 22.1S 62.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 29.2S 62.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

0441 AM UTC ASCAT swath shows an improving low level circulation within the last 12 hours. However last microwave data of 0127 AM UTC and 0440 AM UTC suggests that convection has difficulties to organize.

System is expected to keep on tracking west southwestward then southward around the highs of low troposphere and finally southward from Wednesday evacuating with the trough.

In relationship with a lack of low level inflow (mainly equatorward), intensification of the system may remain laborious during the next 36 to 48 hours, despite of the temporally polar outflow channel building with the approaching upper level trough.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TD 10-20112012 will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
421. HadesGodWyvern
7:43 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
15:00 PM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.8N 111.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as west southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 8.9N 110.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
===============

Tropical depression will be stationary for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

The depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.5 after 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
420. HadesGodWyvern
7:31 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 20 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (992 hPa) located at 25.7S 53.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant with gradient effect

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.4S 53.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.1S 53.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.4S 53.8E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=====================

SSMIS data of 0137z show that shearing process is quite over. On the first cc satellite imagery the center is completely exposed northwest of the convection.The system has weakened very rapidly.

The system has clearly highly decelerate at the end of the night.
Its steering flow is now located in lower troposphere. A north northwestward recurve is now expected due to the high sub-tropicales rebuilding in the south of the system.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are very unfavorable with a strong westerly then southwesterly vertical wind shear due to an upper tropospheric trough transiting south-east of Madagascar.

The residual low is forecast to fill up on Wednesday, within a broad area of low pressure over the Mascarene Islands.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
419. HadesGodWyvern
4:29 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
12:00 PM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006hPa) located at 8.9N 111.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.1N 111.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
418. HadesGodWyvern
2:20 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 20 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10 (1003 hPa) located at 19.1S 66.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.8S 64.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.7S 64.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 22.8S 63.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 29.1S 63.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

1730 PM UTC ASCAT swath shows a low level circulation with winds at about 10-15 kt in the northern semi-circle and at about 20-25 kt in the southern semi-circle locally reaching 30 kt in the south-eastern quadrant up to 50 nm from the center. Convection remains fluctuating and rather bad organized.

System is expected to keep on tracking west-southwestward then southward and finally southward from Wednesday.

In relationship with a lack of low level inflow (mainly equatorward), system is not expected to deepen significantly at short or medium range.

Intensity of this system does not justify issuance of regular warnings.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
417. HadesGodWyvern
2:17 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
9:00 AM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.0N 111.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.2N 111.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 3:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
416. HadesGodWyvern
2:16 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 20 2012
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical StormGiovanna (988 hPa) located at 26.0S 53.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported movement is undetermined.

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 65 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant with gradient effect

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W1.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.2S 53.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.5S 53.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 22.8S 51.9E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=====================

Infrared imagery shows that Govanna becomes to undergo a strong westerly to north-westerly wind shear. Destruction of pattern is fast. Low level circulation center is difficult to localize (no recent microwave picture) but system has likely highly decelerate.

System might keep on tracking east-northeastward within the next hours by continuing to weaken rapidly. So, its steering flow is expected to move in lower troposphere. Beyond, numerical weather prediction models are not in good agreement like ECMWF ensemble run. Two options are possible. A south-southeastward recurve or a north-northwestward recurve. RSMC keeps northward option (ridge situated in the west then south-west of the system).

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are very unfavorable with a strong westerly then south-westerly vertical wind shear due to an upper tropospheric trough transiting southeast of Madagascar.

The residual low is forecast to fill up on Wednesday, within a broad area of low pressure over the Mascarene Islands.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
415. HadesGodWyvern
10:20 PM GMT on February 19, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
6:00 AM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.5N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.5N 111.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 0:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
414. HadesGodWyvern
9:23 PM GMT on February 19, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 19 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical StormGiovanna (985 hPa) located at 26.1S 52.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
35 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 65 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.1/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.1S 54.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.3S 53.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.1S 51.4E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=====================

Cloud pattern has continued to degrade considerably within the last 6 hours, even a residual eye seems to exist aloft. At this time, low level circulation center is difficult to localize and 1800z position has been extrapoled with 1646 PM UTC F18 microwave picture. System undergoes a moderate westerly wind shear and moves in dry air in the mid-troposphere (cf. Recent water vapor imagery).

System might keep on tracking eastward to east-northeastward within the next 12 hours by continuing to weaken rapidly. So, its steering flow is expected to move in lower troposphere. Beyond, numerical weather prediction models are not in good agreement like ECMWF ensemble run. Two options are possible. A south southeastward recurve or a north northwestward recurve. RSMC keep northward option (ridge situated in the west then south-west of the system).

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are very unfavorable with a westerly then south-westerly vertical wind shear due to an upper tropospheric trough transiting southeast of Madagascar.

The residual low is forecast to fill up on Wednesday, within a broad area of low pressure over the Mascarene Islands.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
413. HadesGodWyvern
9:16 PM GMT on February 19, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
3:00 AM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.5N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.5N 111.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 21:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
412. HadesGodWyvern
4:00 PM GMT on February 19, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
0:00 AM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.6N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.6N 111.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 18:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
411. HadesGodWyvern
3:52 PM GMT on February 19, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST February 19 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.8N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.7N 111.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 15:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
410. HadesGodWyvern
3:51 PM GMT on February 19, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
CYCLONE TROPICAL GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 19 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (976 hPa) located at 25.7S 50.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
75 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.5/W1.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.2S 52.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.1S 52.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.5S 51.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Loud pattern has degraded rapidly within the past six hours.

System is now undergoing a moderate upper level vertical wind shear and is moving in dry air in the mid-troposphere (cf. Recent water vapor imagery).

It is expected to keep on weakening rather rapidly and its steering flow is expected to move in the lower troposphere within the next 24 hours. On Monday, it is also forecast to adopt a slower, generally northward track, under the influence of the anticyclonic subtropical belt strengthening in its south.

Within the next 48 hours, environmental conditions will continue to deteriorate, with the strengthening of the vertical wind shear, due to an upper tropospheric trough transiting south-east of Madagascar. The residual low is forecast to fill up on Wednesday, within a broad area of low pressure over the Mascarene Islands.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC
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