Ernesto strengthening; Florence forms

By: HurricaneDean07 , 12:29 AM GMT on August 05, 2012

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ERNESTO
Tropical storm Ernesto has continued to organize and slowly strengthen through-out the day, though currently is obviously not statistically strong, with the NHC stating Ernesto has 60 mph sustained winds...
Though he is statistically not as strong, he still has the capability of becoming a hurricane within the next 24 hours.
Recon; Hurricane Hunters are going to head into the storm later tonight, and might find a stronger Ernesto than earlier (The HH were finding that it was stronger on their last sweep).

Forecast-
Ernesto is probably going to reach hurricane status tomorrow and with that intensity in play, I believe it will go further north than models and the NHC (currently) indicate.
Intensity forecast:
INITIAL- 60 MPH
12 HOURS- 65 MPH
24 HOURS- 70 MPH
36 HOURS- 75 MPH
48 HOURS- 85 MPH
72 HOURS- 100 MPH
96 HOURS- 110 MPH
120 HOURS- 90 MPH

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Figure 1.Ernesto treking through the Caribbean Sea as it strengthens...

FLORENCE
Florence formed last night as it passed just south of Cape Verde Is. and is moving just north of West-Northwest...

Forecast-
Florence should bend back more to the West and strengthen before hitting much more unfavorable conditions, and dissipate in about 5 days... Before then, Florence should have about 24 Hours of favorable enough conditions for strengthening.
Intensity forecast:
INITIAL- 50 MPH
12 HOURS- 60 MPH
24 HOURS- 65 MPH
36 HOURS- 60 MPH
48 HOURS- 50 MPH
72 HOURS- 45 MPH
96 HOURS- 40 MPH
120 HOURS- 35 MPH

Figure 2.
Florence strengthening out in the deep tropics...

I've about given up on forecasting Ernesto, it's such a bipolar storm at this point... Im gonna give myself about 36 Hours to just watch the situation play out...
I will have an update on Florence tomorrow...

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2. GeorgiaStormz
12:39 AM GMT on August 05, 2012
thx
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9738
1. HurricaneDean07
12:33 AM GMT on August 05, 2012
My reason for my Ernesto Intensity forecast is: For it to stay at the same intensity but slowly get it's act together, and begin to fire on all cylinders by Monday and strengthen into a hurricane...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

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About HurricaneDean07

I got an interest from weather sitting in the living room watching the weather channel with my Grandpa, I've been hooked to tracking storms ever since