Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ophelia not budging

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:12 PM GMT on September 07, 2005

Long range radar out of Melbourne this afternoon showed a significant improvement in the organization of Ophelia, and the pressure fell modestly from 999 mb to 996 mb. However, the winds have are still at 50 mph, and Ophelia has not intensified quite as fast as the improved radar presentation would suggest. Upper-level winds over the south side of the system relaxed to the 5 - 10 knot range this morning, but have increased again to about 10 knots. These winds are causing shearing on the south side of Ophelia, and so there is little deep convection there. Ophelia is over warm 29 - 30C water, and no significant increase in the shear is forecast the next 36 hours. This should allow Ophelia to approach hurricane strength by tomorrow night or Friday morning.

I have no additional speculations on her future track. Steering currents are very weak, and there will certainly be plenty of time to speculate on her long-range track the next five days while she wanders within 100 miles of her current location. I don't think Ophelia's winds are strong enough yet to stir up enough cold water and cause weakening. Hurricanes need water of at least 26C to maintain their intensity, and water this warm exists down to a depth of 75 meters over the waters east of Cape Canaveral. Winds of tropical storm force are not strong enough to churn up water from deeper than 75 meters.

Figure 1. Depth in meters of where 26C water can be found.

Jeff Masters

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951. Jedkins 11:49 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
That is because of a bit of dry air,convection is limited to near the center and to the northeast.

952. Lovethetropics 11:55 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Good morning Shera and all Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11291

953. nash28 11:56 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Good morning all! Sitting here in Tampa and watching Ophelia do absolutely NOTHING! I wish she would make a move in one direction or another. I see the new model runs still resemble a lie detector test gone wacky. Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

954. Lovethetropics 12:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
The waiting is the worst. And the never ending rain and wind. Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11291

955. Sheraqueenofthebeach 12:03 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
I an NOT likinh hurricane79's projection. Link It puts a bull's eye on my roof! Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3136

956. Sheraqueenofthebeach 12:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
liking* Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3136

957. DubbyaCU 12:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
I FOUND STORMTOP!!! Link No, I know it's not him but I think it was kinda cool. - C

958. weatherdude65 12:21 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
good morning everyone....well, here we are, and there sits Ophelia....still. I'm near Cocoa Beach, and I can tell that she has gotten stronger as we have stronger winds today and the low level clouds have increased considerably.

959. weatherguy03 12:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
Definately weatherdude..I am here in St. Augustine and what a diference when i woke up this morning..Our gust here have been between 30 and 35 mph consistently now, unlike yesterday..Not too bad..but definately different then yesterday..But still its a dry storm..not much rain..Satelite looks terrible..Some of that dry air got mixed into the storm, but if it can mix it out we may see alot of rain today. It is still slowly getting stronger, so who know..we will see today. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

960. weatherdude65 12:26 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
weatherguy, we've had rain off and on during the night and morning. I saw that dry air, and it still looks like there is some shear from the south

961. rxse7en 12:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
We're running out of goats to sacrifice here in Jax. Looks like we'll have enough to keep the storms away another year. :D Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

962. weatherguy03 12:33 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
Yep the thing that concerns me alittle is if it moves away from the coast a bit and sits and loops..Conditions might become alittle more favorable and then it comes back to the coast..Who knows we will be talking about this for awhile..lol..But unfortunatley they were just about done putting back our beach here and now it is getting eroded again..big chunks already going away..that is what is going to be bad here. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

963. weatherdude65 12:36 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
We've got bad erosion here as well. I'm affraid that this thing will strengthen, loop back around, and come back at us. I think she is going to do what jeanne did last year. Even here we had winds of 80+mph with her.

964. weatherguy03 12:38 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
The good thing so far it is a rather small system..but that could change down the road..well time for work..goodluck to you weatherdude..have a good day. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

965. stormydee 12:56 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
ah, she is closer to me...crazy, the 11AM and 8PM had her at the same coordinates yesterday...she is meandering off the coast, they believe we will start to feel some good winds this PM. Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517

966. stormydee 12:58 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
I don't think anyone helped in the efforts to blow her east last night...lol Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517

968. FrankieSC 1:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
Dr. Masters has posted a new discussion Member Since: August 22, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 15

969. 1996NYCBlizzard 5:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
Yesterday you said the GFS was the superior model. Today you note how bad it was with Jeanne last year. The GFS is the worst performing model. Take Katrina for example. GFS didn't even have Katrina on the map 3 days before developing, even as it's energy was there and moving NW towards Bahamas. GFS also had forecast of Katrina going up East Coast for over 72 hours on it's runs. So your comment yesterday about GFS model being superior was just a plain stupid comment. You should do some case studies on how bad the GFS performs. I can supply you with case after case where the GFS is always wrong because it cannot deal with heat and feedback situations.

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