Ophelia not budging

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:12 PM GMT on September 07, 2005

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Long range radar out of Melbourne this afternoon showed a significant improvement in the organization of Ophelia, and the pressure fell modestly from 999 mb to 996 mb. However, the winds have are still at 50 mph, and Ophelia has not intensified quite as fast as the improved radar presentation would suggest. Upper-level winds over the south side of the system relaxed to the 5 - 10 knot range this morning, but have increased again to about 10 knots. These winds are causing shearing on the south side of Ophelia, and so there is little deep convection there. Ophelia is over warm 29 - 30C water, and no significant increase in the shear is forecast the next 36 hours. This should allow Ophelia to approach hurricane strength by tomorrow night or Friday morning.

I have no additional speculations on her future track. Steering currents are very weak, and there will certainly be plenty of time to speculate on her long-range track the next five days while she wanders within 100 miles of her current location. I don't think Ophelia's winds are strong enough yet to stir up enough cold water and cause weakening. Hurricanes need water of at least 26C to maintain their intensity, and water this warm exists down to a depth of 75 meters over the waters east of Cape Canaveral. Winds of tropical storm force are not strong enough to churn up water from deeper than 75 meters.


Figure 1. Depth in meters of where 26C water can be found.

Jeff Masters

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969. 1996NYCBlizzard
5:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
Yesterday you said the GFS was the superior model. Today you note how bad it was with Jeanne last year. The GFS is the worst performing model. Take Katrina for example. GFS didn't even have Katrina on the map 3 days before developing, even as it's energy was there and moving NW towards Bahamas. GFS also had forecast of Katrina going up East Coast for over 72 hours on it's runs. So your comment yesterday about GFS model being superior was just a plain stupid comment. You should do some case studies on how bad the GFS performs. I can supply you with case after case where the GFS is always wrong because it cannot deal with heat and feedback situations.
968. FrankieSC
1:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
Dr. Masters has posted a new discussion
Member Since: August 22, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 15
966. stormydee
12:58 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
I don't think anyone helped in the efforts to blow her east last night...lol
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
965. stormydee
12:56 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
ah, she is closer to me...crazy, the 11AM and 8PM had her at the same coordinates yesterday...she is meandering off the coast, they believe we will start to feel some good winds this PM.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
964. weatherguy03
12:38 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
The good thing so far it is a rather small system..but that could change down the road..well time for work..goodluck to you weatherdude..have a good day.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29702
963. weatherdude65
12:36 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
We've got bad erosion here as well. I'm affraid that this thing will strengthen, loop back around, and come back at us. I think she is going to do what jeanne did last year. Even here we had winds of 80+mph with her.
962. weatherguy03
12:33 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
Yep the thing that concerns me alittle is if it moves away from the coast a bit and sits and loops..Conditions might become alittle more favorable and then it comes back to the coast..Who knows we will be talking about this for awhile..lol..But unfortunatley they were just about done putting back our beach here and now it is getting eroded again..big chunks already going away..that is what is going to be bad here.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29702
961. rxse7en
12:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
We're running out of goats to sacrifice here in Jax. Looks like we'll have enough to keep the storms away another year. :D
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
960. weatherdude65
12:26 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
weatherguy, we've had rain off and on during the night and morning. I saw that dry air, and it still looks like there is some shear from the south
959. weatherguy03
12:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
Definately weatherdude..I am here in St. Augustine and what a diference when i woke up this morning..Our gust here have been between 30 and 35 mph consistently now, unlike yesterday..Not too bad..but definately different then yesterday..But still its a dry storm..not much rain..Satelite looks terrible..Some of that dry air got mixed into the storm, but if it can mix it out we may see alot of rain today. It is still slowly getting stronger, so who know..we will see today.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29702
958. weatherdude65
12:21 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
good morning everyone....well, here we are, and there sits Ophelia....still. I'm near Cocoa Beach, and I can tell that she has gotten stronger as we have stronger winds today and the low level clouds have increased considerably.
957. DubbyaCU
12:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
I FOUND STORMTOP!!!

Link

No, I know it's not him but I think it was kinda cool.

- C
956. Sheraqueenofthebeach
12:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
liking*
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
955. Sheraqueenofthebeach
12:03 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
I an NOT likinh hurricane79's projection. Link

It puts a bull's eye on my roof!
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
954. Lovethetropics
12:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2005
The waiting is the worst. And the never ending rain and wind.
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11302
953. nash28
11:56 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Good morning all! Sitting here in Tampa and watching Ophelia do absolutely NOTHING! I wish she would make a move in one direction or another. I see the new model runs still resemble a lie detector test gone wacky.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
952. Lovethetropics
11:55 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Good morning Shera and all
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11302
951. Jedkins
11:49 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
That is because of a bit of dry air,convection is limited to near the center and to the northeast.
950. Sheraqueenofthebeach
11:49 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
ME...you blog-hopping lurker! (New term! hmmmmmm)

Morning all.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
949. MaryEstherFLA
11:44 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
sorry
Member Since: August 4, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 1190
948. MaryEstherFLA
11:43 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
go for it, Girl!

(then we'll all just humm WMama's Kokomo......to get back on track)
Member Since: August 4, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 1190
947. IKE
11:42 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
The clouds west of the Yucatan Peninsula look better than Ophelia looks right now. Slow development possible with it. Probably heads into Mexico/lower Texas.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
946. Jedkins
11:42 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
If it moves into the gulf,I pray that it will quickly move north into the eastern panhandle.
945. Jedkins
11:40 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
The lates NHC forecast disscusion seems to be hinting now at more of a loop rather than a track out to sea.It has been drifting slightly to the south and southwest at at around 2 and 3mph since around midnight.
944. santarosa
11:40 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Batten down over there in eastern Florida!
Those of us in the panhandle are hoping you get a break from all the rain and Ophelia leaves you alone! (paticularly since we don't want to see it coming across at us, LOL.) Gotta go to work!
943. Jedkins
11:37 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
The storms size of convection is a bit small for the moment but that is because of some dry air to the southwest has gotten in the storm a little bit,but a fairly large eye seems to be forming,but as you can see the storm is fairly large but dry air from the southwest is limiting convective coverage at the moment.That was the case with jeanne at first,most of the covection was limited to near the center at first becuase dry air,but when the dry air works out the storms convection covergae will likely expand alot,filling out the circulation.
942. richandcoup
11:31 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
looking real good on the radar loop now

Link
941. HillsboroughBay
11:08 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Good Morning Florida!

As no one has a clue what Tropical Storm Ophelia is going to do we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst!

Do Not make an plans based on amature posts on this website.

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available. This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves.

Stay safe & enjoy the weather soaps!
940. pirateotobx
11:04 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
sorry about double post...
939. pirateotobx
11:03 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
lefty...looks like the gfdl wasn't so crazy after all...hope it goes out to sea....
Link
938. pirateotobx
11:00 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
lefty...looks like the gfdl wasn't so crazy after all...I hope this thing goes out to sea....

new ophelia models
937. leftyy420
9:19 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
but 77 cry me a river casue i could care less if u stop posting here. goodnight
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
936. leftyy420
9:18 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
she will not move much for the next 3-5 days . sorry i can;t type and i appologised. i also stated that accuweather and twc are boradcasters not forcasters. and it looks like accuweather and joe.b got this one wrong
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
935. StormJunkie
9:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Yep I am out too. See ya soon.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15842
934. leftyy420
9:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
77 i am not saying tiwontmove in 3 days. the nhc was saying it. read the info oin their site
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
933. leftyy420
9:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
sticking with my ga landfall. need sleeplol. tomm going to be a frustrating day lol night man
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
932. StormJunkie
9:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Hold on Lefty. Did you see a jog to the ene in the last radar image? If so that could lead to stregthen as she could get a little further off the coast.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15842
930. StormJunkie
9:14 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Any geusses as to how the models will shift on land fall? I say N GA to S S Caro. Just my geuss. What's your gut say?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15842
929. leftyy420
9:13 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
lol thast the kind of disscusion i like. off to bed now man catch u tomm

night 77 don;t take it personaly
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
928. leftyy420
9:12 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
she might be a cane at 1100am after all
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
927. StormJunkie
9:12 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Yep lefty. Might have that 6 pack. Now I will be intrested to see how the models shift today. N or south for the land fall.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15842
926. leftyy420
9:12 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
stormj they also say winds could be 65 moh at the surface. wow i was right on on that. u still there man
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
925. StormJunkie
9:10 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
Intresting. N Florida to S. Georgia. Wait and see.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15842
924. leftyy420
9:09 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
wow did u read the diascussion strom j. pressure might be 987 and the stimr maybe stronger than 60mph. they also feel a loop will happen but the question is how far east will she go. lol what i ahve been saying all day
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
923. leftyy420
9:06 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
and 77 i already appologised for missunderstanding what u was saying. what do u want from me man
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
920. leftyy420
9:01 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
lol. she is alil raged on radar but her sat presentation has improced greatly. we will see what tomm brings. feel it will be alot of wobblews and people from florida. i might just lurk a little lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
919. StormJunkie
8:59 AM GMT on September 08, 2005
You know I think the problem with TWC is that they are mostly tranlaters. Put the weather in laymans terms. That's it. The lady just on stated in the tropical update that O still looked pretty ragged? I mean come on. They need to give these people a little freedom. At least the ones feeding the teleprompter the info they read.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15842

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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