Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ophelia not budging
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:12 PM GMT on September 07, 2005 +0
Long range radar out of Melbourne this afternoon showed a significant improvement in the organization of Ophelia, and the pressure fell modestly from 999 mb to 996 mb. However, the winds have are still at 50 mph, and Ophelia has not intensified quite as fast as the improved radar presentation would suggest. Upper-level winds over the south side of the system relaxed to the 5 - 10 knot range this morning, but have increased again to about 10 knots. These winds are causing shearing on the south side of Ophelia, and so there is little deep convection there. Ophelia is over warm 29 - 30C water, and no significant increase in the shear is forecast the next 36 hours. This should allow Ophelia to approach hurricane strength by tomorrow night or Friday morning.

I have no additional speculations on her future track. Steering currents are very weak, and there will certainly be plenty of time to speculate on her long-range track the next five days while she wanders within 100 miles of her current location. I don't think Ophelia's winds are strong enough yet to stir up enough cold water and cause weakening. Hurricanes need water of at least 26C to maintain their intensity, and water this warm exists down to a depth of 75 meters over the waters east of Cape Canaveral. Winds of tropical storm force are not strong enough to churn up water from deeper than 75 meters.


Figure 1. Depth in meters of where 26C water can be found.

Jeff Masters
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451. OBXER 3:05 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
I guess you guys are talking about John Hope when he died the whole face of forecasting hurricanes changed.
452. leftyy420 3:05 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
omg no he did. that is so sad. i thought he just retired
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
453. hurricane79 3:05 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Is it me, or is Ophelia trying to sneak up on Daytona overnight? I am only basing thbis on the last 1 hour of radar.
454. K8tina 3:06 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
hurricane79 -- my hubby says she didn't move because she's a woman and us women can't ever make up our minds! (OUCH!)

Btw, Mr Bastardi was on TV just now with his Accuweather predictions... in case anyone was wondering about him...
455. leftyy420 3:06 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
obx i got ur e-mail saved. trust me i am sure i will be seeing at some poiont in the comming seasons
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
456. Canenut 3:06 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
His name was John Hope. Worked at the NHC during Camille. John suggested Camille as the "C" name, in honor of his daughter. Little did John Hope know that both he and his daughter would make history in 1969
457. bigdrvr 3:07 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Is it me or if you run the doppler radar from Melbourne for 40 frames the center is moving almost due west very slowly? I know the rain shield is expanding to the west which can give the look that it is moving west, but the center is what I am looking at..Sure looks like a west drift, especially in the last 10-12 frames.
458. 8888888889gg 3:07 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
did John Hope died from the weather ch when?
459. leftyy420 3:08 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
yes obx. aint been the same since he left


79, she aint going anywehre for a couple dayslol. and that loop is looking little beter today though the gfs kicks her out to the atlantic now. we will see
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
460. cgableshurrycanegal 3:08 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
K8!!! "SCENERY"??? ROFL!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
461. Canenut 3:08 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
John died June 2002.
462. hurricane79 3:09 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
whoever gets this storms forecast right will gain some serious repect in my book...as long as I know you weren;t just guessing.
463. OBXER 3:10 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
John hope died either last year or the year before i cant emember but it was in my opinion the greatest lose in hurricane forecasting this generation has every had
464. leftyy420 3:09 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
sthe system is not moving any where right now. maybe a woble or two. this is based on recon from the ceentr. if anything she has drufted a hair to the ne. thats based on the recon data alone
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
465. cgableshurrycanegal 3:10 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
OBX, YES! John Hope, he was really special. I think, in all seriousness, that he was grooming Cantore more than Lyons to succeed him.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
466. Scottcenfla 3:10 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
New member here from Sanford, Fl. Would like to say hello to everyone. A big "hats off" to all of those who were online during Katrina. I truly believe words of wisdom helped some escape the wrath of one of this century's most devestating storms. Many within my family were affected in the Mobile area. Kudos and credit given where it is due.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
467. BRDinShalimarFl 3:11 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
WTF -- I didn't know Mr. Hope was dead.
468. K8tina 3:11 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Canenut -- thanks for the info! That is so sad that John Hope died. :-(

cgableshurrycanegal -- I knew you'd like that one! *G*
469. leftyy420 3:12 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
yeah canenut. i thought he just retired that year. i don;t watch the weather channel much and around that time 2002 i was working way to much so i never watched much tv. thats so sad.


well 79 i still feel a loop back towards the fl/ga border. we will see
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
470. cgableshurrycanegal 3:13 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
canenut, hadn't realized it was 3 years. Yikes. He really made quite an impression on the tropical weather scene. Was quite instrumental in bringing forecasting to what it is today.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
471. K8tina 3:13 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Welcome Scottcenfla!!! :-)
472. leftyy420 3:14 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
i think they gave it to lyons casue he is older and they wanted to maintain that wisdom look. jim is just to young looking and is betetr on a beach running from a storm surge. in a few years jim will be in that seat and i think he will do a betetr job than steve lyons does
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
473. cgableshurrycanegal 3:14 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Hi Scott
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
474. OBXER 3:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
CG i like Cantore and i think he reports it right but the theatrics that they make him go through are a little to much on the other hand Lyons has done a good job so far.You know what is kinda weird but nobody mentions the hurricane center anymore its like they have become lost in the media hype
475. leftyy420 3:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
hey scott
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
476. taco2me61 3:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
HI everybody now I can get back to the weather b/c bingotv is off for this week lol
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763
478. cgableshurrycanegal 3:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
taco, didn't you know?
Ophelia = bingo tonight
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
479. K8tina 3:17 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Andrew, I didn't realize you were a meteorologist by profession! Oh my goodness, that is too cool!!! Btw, I like your map/drawing from last night. (Yes, I checked out your blog.) Being that I am such a novice at this stuff, I am not even going to make a guess on what prediction to make about Ophelia... just hoping she goes out to sea! *wishful thinking*
480. Scottcenfla 3:17 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Thanks for the welcome K8tina and Cgables.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
481. BRDinShalimarFl 3:17 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Someone who contributed so much to meteorology...
and there was so little said...
I miss him.
Shame on the media for not informing those whose life affected so much of his death.

A moment of silence.

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
I don't think he would have wanted to see NO now. He would have be a contributing factor in preventing it.

God rest his soul.

I will say no more about it.

483. Skyepony (Mod) 3:18 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
The low level clouds in Melbourne have picked up the pace, fastest I've seen them yet. Had that real muggy feel to it earlier, now it feels cool, like I otta open the house to air. I noticed the slight w jog. hadn't really gone on long enough to call it movement. Wish it'd do something been getting rain from it since late friday.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29327
484. Skyepony (Mod) 3:19 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Yeah I think John would have stood up & scared the govt & people of NO to run. Really miss 'um.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29327
485. cgableshurrycanegal 3:20 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Lyons is good and steady, you're right about the whole drama stuff out in the weather... Emmy Awards someone said?
As NHC, I think they don't mind the backseat position. Frank Neil (?) was an in your face guy, but since then, most have been pretty retiring, effective but not pushy.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
486. taco2me61 3:20 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
yea but the jack pot was $18,000 and I sure could use it right now... LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763
487. Scottcenfla 3:21 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Hiya Lefty, keep up the great work brother.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
489. leftyy420 3:23 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
thanks scott, justy do what i cane. lot of good guys on here who know there stuff.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
490. OBXER 3:24 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Good night eveyone and Lefty i want to meet you but i hope ts not next week but if it is what can i say but lets let the games begin
491. K8tina 3:25 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
My husband says that he wants Stephanie Abrams to come visit Ft Walton Beach again... he *LIKES* her... *G*
492. taco2me61 3:26 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
hey leftty do they still having the trof pushing Ophelia south???
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763
493. leftyy420 3:26 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
same here obx. good night big man


yeah i love stephanie abrahms.i think my wife is jealous of her lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
494. BRDinShalimarFl 3:26 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Sorry Lefty
I must also thank you for your persistance and perserverance. I find your observations and interpretations insiteful and informative.

Keep up the good work.

Whats your lastest angle as of the lastest.

495. K8tina 3:27 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Hi Taco2me61! I got your email message earlier. Thanks for the good thoughts. Still hoping your prediction from last night is wrong. We don't need another hurricane in the Gulf.
496. leftyy420 3:27 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
never had the trof pushig her south. trof will nudge her ne. iof she will loop back or swin west is another story that we need to wait and see what happens
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
497. hurricane79 3:28 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Hey, I was waiting for someone to call me by my first name:)
498. hurricane79 3:29 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
Lefty, as far as Abrams... Good looks, good on screen talent, not the best forecast (from experience)
499. leftyy420 3:30 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
i think she will sit off the coast of florida for 2-3 days. then the trof will move ehr ne. she might reloop back or continue out to see. i am trending more for a loop but its fart out in the forcast period we need to wait to see what happens. if i had to predict a landfall it would be ga/fl border in 7-8 days. but thats just a preliminary assessment for a landfall
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
500. Scottcenfla 3:30 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
No expert here by any means. I'm in Sanford Fl., which is about the halfway point between Orlando and Daytona. More accurately, 25 miles NW of the Cape.

Not much to add here except conditions as they may arise when the work schedule permits. Generator backup as long as the cable modem still hangs. A "big if" considering last year's activity.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
501. leftyy420 3:31 AM GMT on September 08, 2005    
79 i could care less about her forcasts lol. shes a hottie and u can tell shes a wild one lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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