Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008 +1
The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Fire
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Reader Comments
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51. TampaSpin 6:28 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
MONTHLY RTN
+3.96%
WEEKLY RTN
+5.31%
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
53. IKE 6:40 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    

DOW
286.42
-3.29%
8,407.54



Wall Street Shuffle
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
54. conchygirl 6:56 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Gas here around $2.11. Liking it!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
55. conchygirl 7:06 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
NASA Gives "Go" For Shuttle Launch on Friday!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
56. RobDaHood 7:12 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting conchygirl:
Gas here around $2.11. Liking it!


Hehe, did you think 5 yrs ago that you'd ever hear yourself saying that?

NASA Gives "Go" For Shuttle Launch on Friday!

Better set an alarm on my phone or I'll get busy and forget again.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
57. fribble 7:14 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting RobDaHood:


Hehe, did you think 5 yrs ago that you'd ever hear yourself saying that?

NASA Gives "Go" For Shuttle Launch on Friday!

Better set an alarm on my phone or I'll get busy and forget again.

58. fribble 7:18 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting hondaguy:
31. IKE 5:10 PM GMT on November 12, 2008
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$

Gas is under $2 in western Louisiana, and nearly 3 weeks ago I heard gas was $1.99 in some parts of TX.

It's actually freeing up a lot of my $$$$. lol


Same here. I'm in sales and it's helped quite a bit.




Here in Bon Air,Va (near Richmond ) Gas is around 1.87. We've been under 2.00 for a week or more. AND that was this morning - might be even lower on the way home.
59. RobDaHood 7:22 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
58. fribble

My girlfriend has about a 45 min commute both ways, 5 days a week. Even in the little econobox it got pretty expensive...Now if we can just do something about diesel...I got to the point that I just stick the card in and don't even look!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
60. zoomiami 7:30 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Miami is at 2.12 to 2.49 - depending on where you go.

It would be exciting to get under two dollars. Even at the current price its 1.45 per gallon cheaper than two months ago. Translates into 37.00 less per tank for my car.

Good that the storms didn't impact the oil fields more than they did this year.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065
62. RobDaHood 7:34 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
60. zoomiami

The industry did a lot of work "beefing up" the platforms post Katrina. What worried me about IKE (energy-wise) was the potential loss of refinery capacity. That is where our real bottleneck has been in recent years. Fortunately no major damage.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
64. Bonedog 7:38 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
hey folks.

Gas still at 2.17 here usually were are lower then the rest. Oh well at least its heading in the right direction.

Amazing how fast the prices goes up yet so slow on the way down.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
65. RobDaHood 7:42 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
64. Bonedog

...Amazing how fast the prices goes up yet so slow on the way down.

Noticed that huh? (grin) Yeah, I already had that conversation once today...Good to see ya BTW.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
66. eddye 7:42 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
it is going to get to 53 in west palm beach for thanksgiving and a high of 68
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 983
67. conchygirl 7:46 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
RDH - I remember .99 gas in 2002 - seems forever ago. We can hope! ~) Back to work again!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
68. bgcatfan 7:47 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Been a while since I posted on here...

Gas is below $1.90 where I am. Bowling Green, Ohio.
69. lawntonlookers 7:47 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Good afternoon everyone. Just a quick glance and what is going on. Gas in my are is around $2.15. Maybe the dow will jump up before closing. I always get a laugh when the dow closes and you see all of the clapping even when it drops 400 points. You would think the people on the podium would show some signs of concern that it drops that much.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
70. RobDaHood 7:49 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
69. lawntonlookers

ahh, but you're forgetting...the brokers make money either way...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
71. lawntonlookers 7:50 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Yes I thought about that after I posted.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
72. RobDaHood 7:53 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Yes I thought about that after I posted.


Figured you knew that, but I get your point...Seems like they would at least keep up the pretense of sympathy for those who just paid a good commission for the privelege of losing their shirts.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
73. RobDaHood 8:04 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
68. bgcatfan

welcome out of lurkdom, Bowling Green.

Wow, I was feeling really good about how much I saved on the last tankful and then you come along a blow it for me...(kidding)

have a nice one!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
74. ftpiercecane 8:12 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
still $2.49 @ some stations here
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 204
75. RitaEvac 8:13 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Got gas for $1.89 at Exxon in Galveston county. Finally filling up a tank for $25.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8899
76. Bonedog 8:16 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Hey Rob.


Hell I rember gas at 80 cents! Me and my buddies used to fill up for around 10 bucks. Being a teenager 10 bucks was a lot. Now that number gets blown by in a blink.


Just grinning thinking how fast the blog changes. A week ago fights were breaking out over talking about the markets and gas today nothing LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
77. RobDaHood 8:18 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Amazing to me how there is still such a well defined circulation to "Paloma's Ghost". Wonder if she might be intent on a 3rd crossing of Cuba...Just a novelty, I know, but interesting.

(Thought I might as well throw out a weather-related post.)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
78. Bonedog 8:18 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
on a weather note...

pretty nasty storm getting ready to go off. the cyclone over the plains will head to the coast and a coastal low will develope along its front. Looks like a good soaking rain for the next 4 days from the Great Lakes and Ohio Vally all the way to the coast and New England.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
79. RobDaHood 8:20 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
76. Bonedog

Hehe!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
82. sullivanweather 8:24 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
I remember in 1999 I bought gas from a station in central New Jersey along the coast, near Asbury Park. It was a coastal station and the price of gas there was a mere 67 cents a gallon. I filled my car for 7 bucks and got just over 10 gallon of gas...

That's the cheapest I've ever seen gas
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12491
84. RobDaHood 8:25 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
76. Bonedog
Being a teenager 10 bucks was a lot.

Yeah, Times have changed, Had a converation like this with young daughter...

Daughter:
"Dad, the jeans I want are only One hundred dollars!"

Father:
"Who ever told you that the words ONLY and HUNDRED DOLLARS have any business being in the same sentence!"

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
85. gordydunnot 8:25 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Anybody want to go for orange circle on the remains of Paloma at 5pm. Pressure at 4 day low in nw carribean 29.84. Still no upper level moisture associated with it. Might bring a little more rain as its follows front line ne across fl. latter in the week.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044
86. Bonedog 8:27 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
on the consperacy note (dont belive it but)

My wife said the other day, "Look how high oil and gas prices rose then right around election time prices stabalized then fell through the floor once the election started showing Obama ahead then winning."

Then she said, "Amazing what happens when an oil man leaves office."

not that I believe in the consperacy but is amazing the coincidence.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
87. Bonedog 8:31 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Yea Rob times have changed alot. I was listening to a comedian talk about them today on XM. Some things were just plain funny.

example:

Today airbags My Time fat uncle Joe in the front seat.

Today RPG's My Time Astroids

Today active restraint systems My Time Mom/Dads arm

LOL and to think we survived back then LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
88. IKE 8:31 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    

DOW
389.00
-4.47%
8,304.96
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
89. Bonedog 8:33 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
OIL
3.17
-5.34%
$56.16
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
91. RobDaHood 8:35 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
RE 88 & 89

For some reason I like Bonedog better tha IKE today! LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25915
93. Bonedog 8:36 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    


amazing aint it
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
95. 786 8:40 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Popping in looks like nothing much going on, thats a huge blog in the Atlantic around 9N hopefully won't come to Cayman cause that will bring a lot of rain.

BTW Gas here is almost US$5.00 a gallon! I know ridiculous they get away with daylight robbery on this island with both petrol and diesal prices. Our electricity runs off diesal and one month for two people is about US$ 300 w/out AC and US$500 with!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
97. conchygirl 8:42 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting 786:
Popping in looks like nothing much going on, thats a huge blog in the Atlantic around 9N hopefully won't come to Cayman cause that will bring a lot of rain.

BTW Gas here is almost US$5.00 a gallon! I know ridiculous they get away with daylight robbery on this island with both petrol and diesal prices. Our electricity runs off diesal and one month for two people is about US$ 300 w/out AC and US$500 with!!!
Wow! Do we sound like whiners or what!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
98. IKE 8:43 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting 786:
Popping in looks like nothing much going on, thats a huge blog in the Atlantic around 9N hopefully won't come to Cayman cause that will bring a lot of rain.

BTW Gas here is almost US$5.00 a gallon! I know ridiculous they get away with daylight robbery on this island with both petrol and diesal prices. Our electricity runs off diesal and one month for two people is about US$ 300 w/out AC and US$500 with!!!


Jeez...that's terrible.

Congrats to WSOP winner Peter Eastgate. Picks up a cool 9 million for winning the World Series of Poker. Youngest winner ever...at 22.



DOW
420.78
-4.84%
8,273.18
...bombing out like a cat 4 cane.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
101. lawntonlookers 8:45 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Out for the day. I see others are still watching the remains of Paloma. It still looks like a fairly strong low pressure. Have a great evening everyone.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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