Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Is the globe cooling?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on February 04, 2009

Recently, one has been hearing statements in the media like, the "twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming" and the Earth has been cooling since 1998. Let's take a look at the validity of these statements. The warmest year on record, according to both NASA and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), was 2005. However, 1998 was virtually tied with 2005 for warmth, and the United Kingdom Hadley Center and Climatic Research Unit data set (HadCRU) rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The three data sets use different methods, such as how they interpolate over missing data regions over the Arctic Ocean, and so they arrive at slightly different numbers for the the global average temperature. All three data sets are considered equally valid, so ignoring two of the three major data sets to claim that the globe has been cooling since 1998 is "cherry picking" the data to show the result you want.

Furthermore, 1997-1998 El Niño event was the second strongest of the past century. El Niño events directly warm a large part of the Pacific, and indirectly warm (via a large increase in water vapor), an even larger region. This extra warming--estimated to have boosted the global temperature an extra 0.1-0.2°C--made 1998's warmth spike sharply upwards from the globe's usual temperature. The climate is best measured by a multi-year average of global temperatures, in order to remove shorter-term oscillations in weather patterns like El Niño. It is not scientifically valid to base a cooling argument on a year that spiked sharply upwards from the norm because of one the largest El Niño events in recorded history. A valid way to measure whether the globe is warming or cooling is to use the average global temperature for the past ten years or longer. The 1999-2008 period was significantly warmer (by 0.18°C, according to NOAA) than the previous ten year period, despite the fact the record (or near-record) warmest year 1998 was part of this previous period. Thus, it is scientifically correct to say the globe has been warming since 1998, not cooling. This warming rate has been about 0.16°C per decade over the past thirty years. Note that even over time periods as long as eight years, the average global temperature is not always a good measure of the long-term global warming trend--particularly if a large volcanic eruption in the tropics occurs.

How often should we expect to see a new global temperature record?
The climate should warm at a rate of about 0.19°C (0.34°F) per decade, according to the computer climate models used to formulate the "official word" on climate, the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thus, we should expect to see frequent "warmest years on record". However, 2006, 2007, and 2008 were all cooler than 2005, and 2008 was merely the ninth warmest year on record. We know that the weather has a high degree of natural variability, with warmer than average years mixed in with cooler ones. How often, then, should we expect to set a new global temperature record if the climate is warming in accordance with global warming theory?

Figure 1. Predicted and observed global annual average temperatures between 1990-2008. The thin colored lines represent 55 individual runs of the twenty computer climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report. These runs were done for the A1B "business as usual" scenario, which most closely matches recent emissions. The thick black line is the multi-model mean, and the thick colored lines with symbols denote actual observations, as computed by the three major research groups that estimate annual global temperatures. The sharp down spike in 1991-1992 is due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, which cooled the Earth for two years. You can make these type of plots yourself, using the publicly available PCMDI IPCC AR4 archive. Image credit: Dr. Gavin Schmidt, realclimate.org.

The twenty models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (Figure 1) all predict the climate will warm, but with a lot of year-to-year variability due to natural weather patterns such as El Niño. Some of the IPCC models forecast periods lasting many years (in the extreme case, twenty years) with no global warming, due to natural climate and weather oscillations. If one plots up the cumulative distribution of these IPCC model runs to see how often a global average temperature record should be broken (Figure 2), one sees that the models predict a 50% chance that we'll unambiguously break the record every six years. By an unambiguous record, I mean a record that exceeds the previous one by at least 0.1°C. We've now gone ten years without unambiguously breaking the global temperature record, which the models say should happen 25% of the time. There is a 5% chance we'll go eighteen years without unambiguously breaking the record, so it is quite possible for natural variability in the climate system to obscure the global warming signal for periods of nearly twenty years. If we still haven't had a new global temperature record by 2018, then it is time to question global warming theory. If the theory is correct, there is a good chance that we will break the global temperature record during the next year that has a moderate or stonger El Niño event (and no major volcanic eruption in the tropics, since such major eruptions can dramatically cool the climate). Since we have La Niña conditions to start 2009, it is unlikely this year will break the record.

Figure 2. Cumulative distribution of how long one would have to wait for a new global temperature record to be set between the years 1990 and 2030. Image is based on the twenty climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report, using the A1B "business as usual" scenario. The curves should be read as the percentage chance of seeing a new record (Y axis) if you waited the number of years on the X axis. The two curves are for a new record of any size (black) and for an unambiguous record (> 0.1°C above the previous record, red). The 95% confidence line is marked in gray. The main result is that 95% of the time, a new record will be seen within 8 years, but that for an unambiguous record, you need to wait for 18 years to have similar confidence. Image credit: Realclimate.org.

Is global warming slowing down?
The global average temperature has declined over the past three years (Figure 1) and global average sea surface temperature (SST) has not increased over the past seven years (Figure 3). Is global warming slowing down, then, and taking a break? That was the theory advanced by a group of German climate modelers (Keenlyside et al., 2008) in the journal Nature in 2008. Using a climate model that offered a unique way to handle the initial distribution of SSTs, they concluded that over the next ten years, natural variations in the climate may temporarily mask the global warming due to greenhouse gases. They stated: "North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming". However, they go on to state that greenhouse-gas driven global warming will resume full-force after the ten-year break is over. Other climate modelers disagree with this predicted "break" in global warming. Both theories are reasonable ones, and it is possible that the recent cool years portend the ten-year "break" from global warming hypothesized by Keenlyside et al. It is too early to tell, since the relative coolness of the past few years could easily be natural "noise" (weather) imposed on the long-term global warming trend. The fact that we've had a cold winter in eastern North America and in the UK--or any other anecdotal cold or snow-related record you may hear about--can't tell us whether global warming may be slowing down or not. The amount of global warming over the past century has only been about 1.3°F (0.74°C). Thus, it should not surprise us, for example, if temperatures during tonight's hard freeze in Florida bottom out at 25°F, instead of the 24°F it would have reached 100 years ago. The long-term ten and thirty year trends in global temperature are solidly upwards in accordance with global warming theory, and claims that the globe is cooling cannot be scientifically defended.

Figure 3. Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1990-2008. SSTs have not increased in the past seven years. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

References
Keenlyside, N.S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008, "Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector", Nature 453, No. 7191, pp. 84-88, May 1, 2008

Further reading
2008 temperature summaries and spin by Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org.

My next post will be on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Change

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801. AussieStorm 3:36 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Its 2:35am Monday I am going to go to bed and see if i can get sum sleep. Catch you all tomorrow. AussieStorm Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

802. Patrap 3:37 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Thanx for the info Aussie,..get some rest and take care. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111627

803. Orcasystems 3:38 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm: Its 2:35am Monday I am going to go to bed and see if i can get sum sleep. Catch you all tomorrow. AussieStorm Night/Morning Aus... have a good sleep Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

804. Patrap 3:40 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Perceptions of Accountability in Humanitarian Action in 2008 We are looking for your views Link The Humanitarian Accountability Partnership would like your views in this short survey, it will take you only 3 minutes. Your answers will be treated in confidence, and published as aggregated findings in the forthcoming 2008 Humanitarian Accountability Report. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111627

805. Orcasystems 3:43 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Alaska volcano on verge of venting Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

806. Patrap 3:44 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
The GOM IR Loop shows the Southwest flow returning to the Deep South Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111627

807. Beachfoxx 3:46 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
G'Night Aussie, My thoughts are with your fellow countrymen during this time. What little I have seen of Australia is beautiful... its sad to see fires destroying land, homes and lives. Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

808. Skyepony (Mod) 3:46 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
I was afraid we'd see horror like this.. It's hard to even read after what happened here in 1998. I did check for an ENSO connection with Ash Wed. We were having a strong El Niño at the time. Where right now we are La Niña. ENSO seems to more impact N Australia & the area on fire is the southern part of the mainland.. While checking Australia weather site to see their thoughts on ENSO incase there was anything else they had to add about their felt effects of ENSO, couldn't help but wunder into their climate change section after exhausting the ENSO option. So climate change has indeed trended that area drier & drier.. as for temps the higher, lower, & Mean (pictured) have trended higher as well.. I'm not gonna blame anyone event on climate change, including this one. I does fall in line with the predictions that events like this would become common events.. Firebugs beware..the real culprits..I've seen people sit outside with guns here waiting.. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29374

809. Cotillion 3:47 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Aussie, want our precipitation? It's snowing. Again. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

810. Beachfoxx 3:49 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Hmmm, need to check w/ friends to make sure they have supplies.... When I visited a site where a volcano has erupted a few years back, the lava overflow left a land that evoked images of "hell", "the end of the world", it was eerie, gloomy, and I got the chills, although it was 85° or warmer and a bright sunny day! Quoting Orcasystems: Alaska volcano on verge of venting Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

811. TampaSpin 3:53 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting Skyepony: I was afraid we'd see horror like this.. It's hard to even read after what happened here in 1998. I did check for an ENSO connection with Ash Wed. We were having a strong El Niño at the time. Where right now we are La Niña. ENSO seems to more impact N Australia & the area on fire is the southern part of the mainland.. While checking Australia weather site to see their thoughts on ENSO incase there was anything else they had to add about their felt effects of ENSO, couldn't help but wunder into their climate change section after exhausting the ENSO option. So climate change has indeed trended that area drier & drier.. as for temps the higher, lower, & Mean (pictured) have trended higher as well.. I'm not gonna blame anyone event on climate change, including this one. I does fall in line with the predictions that events like this would become common events.. Firebugs beware..the real culprits..I've seen people sit outside with guns here waiting.. Don't blame GW when this was Man induced... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

812. Beachfoxx 3:57 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Hey, Does anyone know what steps you would take to protect your pets from Ash after volcano blows? Humans need goggles, dust masks and I am sure other items. But what about pets? Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

813. TampaSpin 3:58 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting Beachfoxx: Hey, Does anyone know what steps you would take to protect your pets from Ash after volcano blows? Humans need goggles, dust masks and I am sure other items. But what about pets? Great question......?? Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

814. Beachfoxx 4:04 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Thanks Tampa, I have been trying to google for info and have found almost nothing. I do know that the ash can stall out a commercial airliner like a 747.... and that the ash can damage electronics, autos, etc.... I guess you wrap things in plastic to protect. Can't do that to your dog! Quoting TampaSpin: Great question......?? Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

815. TampaSpin 4:06 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting Beachfoxx: Thanks Tampa, I have been trying to google for info and have found almost nothing. I do know that the ash can stall out a commercial airliner like a 747.... and that the ash can damage electronics, autos, etc.... I guess you wrap things in plastic to protect. Can't do that to your dog! I will help you design something....and we can make a bundle......LOL..... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

816. Patrap 4:06 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
All one can do is prepare for the ash fall and remain indoors after.. Or leave before the eruption. One needs a plan,even if the plan calls for Leaving. One must be ready Now,for that. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111627

817. Beachfoxx 4:07 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Here is a link, but all I see regarding pets is to keep them indoors & after letting them out brush them before returning indoors. Link Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

818. Orcasystems 4:07 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting Beachfoxx: Thanks Tampa, I have been trying to google for info and have found almost nothing. I do know that the ash can stall out a commercial airliner like a 747.... and that the ash can damage electronics, autos, etc.... I guess you wrap things in plastic to protect. Can't do that to your dog! How to Protect Your Pets from Ash fall * Keep pets indoors as much as possible. * If pets go out, brush or vacuum them before letting them back inside; Do not let pets track ash inside the house. * Do not let them get wet, or try to wash the ash off of them. * Keep extra pet food available that is clean and dry. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

820. Beachfoxx 4:08 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Sounds good! LOL I have friends in Anchorage & just shot them an email asking if they knew what precautions they need to take for their pets... Quoting TampaSpin: I will help you design something....and we can make a bundle......LOL..... Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

821. TampaSpin 4:08 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting Patrap: All one can do is prepare for the ash fall and remain indoors after.. Or leave before the eruption. One needs a plan,even if the plan calls for Leaving. One must be ready Now,for that. Yep, the only reason i would consider staying is to try to keep the roof clear so my roof would not cave in but, if things are inhabital..that really would not make much sense to stay... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

822. Orcasystems 4:09 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Here is a Q&A with comments on the same question Link Another good link from Anchorage about pets. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

823. TampaSpin 4:10 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Do not let them get wet, or try to wash the ash off of them. It would become like concret Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

824. KEHCharleston 4:19 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
RE:814. Beachfoxx From Office of Emergency Management/Ankorage How to Protect Your Pets from Ash fall * Keep pets indoors as much as possible. * If pets go out, brush or vacuum them before letting them back inside; Do not let pets track ash inside the house. * Do not let them get wet, or try to wash the ash off of them. * Keep extra pet food available that is clean and dry. Also for Emergency Preparedness in General - Very Extensive Community Pet Preparedness Toolkit Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490

825. futuremet 4:29 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting surfmom: Aussie -- maybe I'm just not getting this... you wrote.. "a number of these fires were deliberately lit".... do I actually beleive some sick idiots were capable of creating further havoc????? Tsk, Tsk -- what is the world coming to???? are you kidding me? those guys ought to be caught!! Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

826. futuremet 4:31 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Sites that teach you more about the fundamentals of meteorology.... HD Version Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

828. Beachfoxx 4:32 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Thanks all! Interesting.... seems that the only thing to do regarding respiratory health and pets is keep them indoors as much as possible. Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

829. Orcasystems 4:33 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting Beachfoxx: Thanks all! Interesting.... seems that the only thing to do regarding respiratory health and pets is keep them indoors as much as possible. They would say the same to people if they would listen :) Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

830. futuremet 4:40 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Looks like things will get busy later this week... I might have to write an analysis on this tonight. Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

832. theshepherd 5:01 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Mega ice breakoff due to AGW ???? Not so fast.... Harmonic tremor From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search Seismograph recording of harmonic tremor. Four major types of seismograms, or seismic signatures.Harmonic tremor describes a continuous rhythmic earthquake in the Earth's upper lithosphere that can be detected by a seismograph and often precedes or accompanies volcanic eruptions. A harmonic tremor is a continuous release of seismic energy typically associated with the underground movement of magma. It contrasts distinctly with the sudden release and rapid decrease of seismic energy associated with the more common type of earthquake caused by slippage along a fault. After twenty years of seismic observations on Mt. Erebus with only rare incidences of sustained tremor-like signals being recorded, tremor activity became conspicuous around June 2000. More than 310 tremor episodes have been recorded through 2004, with three main periods of activity (February 2001, May–June 2002, and January–June 2003). These tremor episodes show a variety of waveforms, from chaotic to highly harmonic, showing up to 28 harmonics of the fundamental frequency. Episodes showing gliding (proportional shifting of all spectral peaks) are commonly seen. Rapid-fire tremors, a sequence of many equally spaced short tremor events, have also been recorded. This increase of tremor activity has not accompanied by increased activity at the crater of Erebus, where an open lava lake and persistent low-level strombolian activity have long been observed. The onset of tremor has corresponded with the calving of several megaicebergs from the Ross Ice Shelf. The association of these regional tremor signals with megaiceberg collisions and other activity is currently a topic of interdisciplinary research between Erebus researchers and several other groups. Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8226

834. Orcasystems 5:28 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting theshepherd: Mega ice breakoff due to AGW ???? Not so fast.... Harmonic tremor From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search Seismograph recording of harmonic tremor. Four major types of seismograms, or seismic signatures.Harmonic tremor describes a continuous rhythmic earthquake in the Earth's upper lithosphere that can be detected by a seismograph and often precedes or accompanies volcanic eruptions. A harmonic tremor is a continuous release of seismic energy typically associated with the underground movement of magma. It contrasts distinctly with the sudden release and rapid decrease of seismic energy associated with the more common type of earthquake caused by slippage along a fault. After twenty years of seismic observations on Mt. Erebus with only rare incidences of sustained tremor-like signals being recorded, tremor activity became conspicuous around June 2000. More than 310 tremor episodes have been recorded through 2004, with three main periods of activity (February 2001, May–June 2002, and January–June 2003). These tremor episodes show a variety of waveforms, from chaotic to highly harmonic, showing up to 28 harmonics of the fundamental frequency. Episodes showing gliding (proportional shifting of all spectral peaks) are commonly seen. Rapid-fire tremors, a sequence of many equally spaced short tremor events, have also been recorded. This increase of tremor activity has not accompanied by increased activity at the crater of Erebus, where an open lava lake and persistent low-level strombolian activity have long been observed. The onset of tremor has corresponded with the calving of several megaicebergs from the Ross Ice Shelf. The association of these regional tremor signals with megaiceberg collisions and other activity is currently a topic of interdisciplinary research between Erebus researchers and several other groups. Hmmmm have to change your nick to Swizzle Stick :) Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

835. Orcasystems 5:33 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

836. Orcasystems 6:04 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Add a little Humour to the Blog :) What is your Southern Sign? Some of us Southerners are pretty skeptical of horoscopes and the people that read them. If we are to ever fully understand all the star signs and the people they represent, we need symbols that all true Southerners understand: See the list below... OKRA (Dec 22 - Jan 20) Are tough on the outside but tender on the inside. Okras have tremendous influence. An older Okra can look back over his life and see the seeds of his influence everywhere. You can do something good each day if you try. CHITLIN (Jan 21 - Feb 19) Chitlins come from humble backgrounds. A Chitlin, however, will make something of himself if he is motivated and has lots of seasoning. In dealing with Chitlins, be careful they may surprise you. They can erupt like Vesuvius. Chitlins are best with Catfish and Okra. BOLL WEEVIL (Feb 20 - March 20) You have an overwhelming curiosity. You're unsatisfied with the surface of things, and you feel the need to bore deep into the interior of everything. Needless to say, you are very intense and driven as if you had some inner hunger. You love to stay busy and tend to work too much. Nobody in their right mind is going to marry you, so don't worry about it. MOON PIE (March 21 - April 20) You're the type that spends a lot of time on the front porch. A cinch to recognize the physical appearance of Moon Pies. Big and round are the key words here. You should marry anybody who you can get remotely interested in the idea. It's not going to be easy. You always have a big smile and are happy. This might be the year to think about aerobics. Maybe not. POSSUM (April 21 - May 21) When confronted with life's difficulties, possums have a marked tendency to withdraw and develop a don't-bother-me-about-it attitude. Sometimes you become so withdrawn, people actually think you're dead. This strategy is probably not psychologically healthy but seems to work for you. You are a rare breed. Most folks love to watch you work and play. You are a night person and mind your own business. CRAWFISH (May 22 - June 21) Crawfish is a water sign. If you work in an office, you're hanging around the water cooler. Crawfish prefer the beach to the mountains, the pool to the golf course, and the bathtub to the living room. You tend not to be particularly attractive physically, but you have very, very good heads. COLLARDS (June 22 - July 23) Collards have a genius for communication. They love to get in the melting pot of life and share their essence with the essence of those around them. Collards make good social workers, psychologists, and baseball managers. As far as your personal life goes, if you are Collards, stay away from Crawfish. It just won't work. Save yourself a lot of heartache. CATFISH (July 24 - Aug 23) Catfish are traditionalists in matters of the heart, although one's whiskers may cause problems for loved ones. You Catfish are never easy people to understand. You run fast. You work and play hard. Even though you prefer the muddy bottoms to the clear surface of life, you are liked by most. Above all else, Catfish should stay away from Moon Pies. GRITS (Aug 24 - Sept 23) Your highest aim is to be with others like yourself. You like to huddle together with a big crowd of other Grits. You love to travel though, so maybe you should think about joining a club. Where do you like to go? Anywhere they have cheese, gravy, bacon, butter, or eggs and a good time. If you can go somewhere where they have all these things, that serves you well. You are pure in heart. BOILED PEANUTS (Sept 24 - Oct 23) You have a passionate desire to help your fellow man. Unfortunately, those who know you best, your friends and loved ones, may find that your personality is much too salty, and their criticism will affect you deeply because you are really much softer than you appear. You should go right ahead and marry anybody you want to because in a certain way, yours is a charmed life. On the road of life, you can be sure that people will always pull over and stop for you. BUTTER BEAN (Oct 24 - Nov 22) Always invite a Butter Bean to a party because Butter Beans get along well with everybody. You, as a Butter Bean, should be proud. You've grown on the vine of life, and you feel at home no matter what the setting. You can sit next to anybody. However, you, too, shouldn't have anything to do with Moon Pies. ARMADILLO (Nov 23 - Dec 21) You have a tendency to develop a tough exterior, but you are actually quite gentle and kind inside. A good evening for you? Old friends, a fire, some roots, fruit, worms, and insects. You are a throwback. You're not concerned with today's fashions and trends. You're not concerned with anything about today. You're almost prehistoric in your interests and behavior patterns. You probably want to marry another Armadillo, but a Possum is another somewhat kinky mating possibility. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

837. Skyepony (Mod) 6:13 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
China fights drought with chemical cloud-seeding (Getty Images) BEIJING (AP) - Northern China is suffering its worst drought in five decades, and there's no end in sight. Beijing has declared an emergency across the region, where 4.4 million people lack adequate drinking water and winter wheat crops are withering. Parts of China's parched north got light rain after authorities fired shells loaded with cloud-seeding chemicals into the sky. It wasn't enough. Rainfall in northern and central China is 50 percent to 80 percent below normal. Beijing has promised more than $12 billion in aid to struggling farmers. That will add to the strain on government finances as it carries out a multibillion-dollar stimulus package to boost slowing economic growth. POSSUM Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29374

838. KEHCharleston 6:16 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
RE:836 Chitlin Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490

839. presslord 6:18 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
boll weevil Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

840. TheKeeper 6:25 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Grits :-) Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 13

841. Skyepony (Mod) 6:30 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
This is some neat research.. Turns out 1709 was Europe's "Day After Tomarrow". I have never heard of such freezing details.. People out eating grass like sheep. I'm sure some of ya'll wish I'd make like a Possum with the climate crap:P Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29374

842. Orcasystems 6:31 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
I don't even know what most of those things are :( But just a guess on my part....I don't want to be any of them. I am a Waggon Wheel... figure that one out :) Keeper should be able to figure it out. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

843. presslord 6:39 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Grits = Girls raised in the South..... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

844. TheKeeper 6:39 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
OOPS, catfish (have grits in the family, though) Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 13

845. presslord 6:40 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
I love grits..... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

846. KEHCharleston 6:41 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting presslord: boll weevil Two boll weevils grew up in South Carolina. One went to Washington and became a famous congressman. The other stayed behind in the cotton fields and never amounted to much. The second one, naturally, became known as the lesser of two weevils. Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490

848. Orcasystems 6:44 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
SWMBO'ed is a GRITS.. go figure? Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

849. Orcasystems 6:45 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
Quoting KEHCharleston: Two boll weevils grew up in South Carolina. One went to Washington and became a famous congressman. The other stayed behind in the cotton fields and never amounted to much. The second one, naturally, became known as the lesser of two weevils. Thats really bad.. but pretty good also :) Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

850. presslord 6:45 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
keh....excellent Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

851. Skyepony (Mod) 6:47 PM GMT on February 08, 2009
There is an award out there about the very topic of this blog.. The award will go to whoever assisted by climate scientists and specialists manages, in the course of 2009, to cram as many misrepresentations, distortions and falsehoods into a single article, statement, lecture, film or interview about climate change. This work must be available online. You score a point for every mistake, though one point will be deducted for every retraction or correction published by the author or the original outlet within a reasonable length of time. The winner of the first Christopher Booker prize will walk away with this unique trophy, plus the Guardian's very minimal support for a one-way solo kayak trip to the North Pole Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29374

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