Florida's soaking continues; 5th warmest April for the globe
The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 13.3 inches have been measured in Northern Florida in Flagler County over the past three days, with another 2 - 4 inches expected from the storm. The storm is bringing beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal to the Northeast Florida coast, along with damaging thunderstorm winds. While the storm's center is located just offshore Southwest Florida, a large band of precipitation arcs to the north and east, extending over northern Florida. This type of structure is typical of subtropical storms, though the storm does not have enough heavy thunderstorm activity or warm core air to qualify as a subtropical storm. The storm is under about 30 knots of wind shear, and shows no signs of developing more tropical characteristics. The computer models generally predict the storm should weaken this week as it moves towards Louisiana or Texas. As the center moves farther north over the next few days, it will be moving into a region of lower wind shear, and I still give the storm a 20% chance of becoming a subtropical depression 2 - 7 days from now.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
Fifth warmest April on record
The globe recorded its 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - April was tied for the sixth warmest such period on record. April marked the first time since October 2008 that the planet has recorded a monthly temperature anomaly in the top five warmest months. The warming may be due to the fact that a La Niña event ended in the Eastern Pacific in April. Global temperature records go back to 1880.
A cool, wet April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April temperatures were the 36th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was also quite wet, ranking as the 35th wettest April. The warmest state was New Hampshire, which recorded its 8th warmest April. The coldest state was South Dakota, which wad its 25th coldest April. Through April, U.S. tornado activity was very close to the mean observed during the past five years, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, there were just 15 tornado deaths through April, compared to 70 deaths through April of 2008, and the 3-year average of 60 deaths.
On May 12, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. However, The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, had increased from 1.2% at the beginning of the year to 2.6% by May 12. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas and South Florida.
La Niña officially over
The La Niña event of September 2008 - March 2009 is officially over, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. Temperatures warmed significantly in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific during April, and are now near average in the Niña 3.4 region. Most of the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Three out of 16 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 30% chance of an El Niño event during the coming hurricane season. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds.
Sea ice in the Arctic below average, but not greatly so
April 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 10th lowest since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record April low was set in 2007. The rate of ice decline in April was the third slowest on record, thanks to cooler than usual temperatures over the Arctic. Nevertheless, the Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures return to the region. Strong winter winds pushed a considerable amount of multi-year-old ice out of the Arctic this year, leaving the Arctic with the lowest amount of old sea ice on record in March. The amount of ice more than two years old fell below 10% for the first time since satellites began observing the ice in 1979.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index
Here is your 48 hr forecast map. That low will hang around for a while.
Hi Tampa. Something to watch already LOL
That low pressure in the EPAC on that map is the one the GFS is forecasting to come into our neck of the woods in a week or so. May not have much of a break till we're tracking the next. Seemed very frontal though, just like this one.
Still on the "old blog" probably LOL
They will all be here shortly.Thanks for the heads up there Pat !
We just got our thunderstorm warning.
My poor dog will not leave my side.
Guess I'll be over and out too.
Got to get some work done!
Hopefully that dry slot fills in today as it looks like it may. I would like to see a couple more inches out of this storm before it moves away.
Jeff said the storm could develop sub tropical characteristics in 2-7 days, do any models show it over the water in seven days....Boy I hopes so that would mean a weeks worth of swell!!
That GFS feature is 9 days out. Too far away at the moment
Sea temp at Dauphin Island at 8 AM CDT: 69 F
Somebody could catch an STD. Ewww.
ROFLMAO!!!! That was funny....
Blog Update
AOI #1
AOI #2
NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page
Multi-Model
Gonna get really messy when the first TropicalDepression appears.
The water temperatures in the GOM around Alabama and Florida were around 80 before this low started to churn things up. I think this low is going to be it's own demise. The warmer water was only at the surface so with the sea stirred up by this low the cooler water from the depths has been brought to the surface and that will serve to weaken it. Buoys off Orange Beach and Destin that were reading 80-81 degree water temp this past weekend are now reading 73-75, quite a drop. Like was already mentioned the only chance it might have is over the warm eddy around 85W but even that I think will be cooled by this low moving very slow to the West.
is that it is taking out "heat"
(...or lessening heat build up)
from the water's here North of Haiti,
which is GOOD, imho
CRS
[edit] I was typing this, and had not read #24 ...same thing, let's all cool the waters as much as we can).
So what do you know about the Caymans going nuclear?
Having an outdoor family reunion crawfish boil on Saturday for 75 - Guess I need to have indoor options after looking at your post!
Good Call....The cold front and this storm have really cooled things off a bit in the NE Gulf region, and, the dry/cool air keeps wrapping into the system....This thing will not go sub-tropical, or even close to tropical, anytime in the foreseeable future...It will probalby die a slow death (and cause some major beach erosion in the process)..
I thought I heard right.
SO what time ?..LOL
ROFL!! yeah maybe......
Lake Okeechobee water level as of May 20, 2009
10.60 ft.
Not much now but, hopefully north river runoff will start picking things up a bit more.
Wtaching N of Hispnaiola
Eastern Pacific
Jax Pier Webcam
that doesn't seem like much of an increase with all of that rain? Wasn't it 10.5 something two days ago?
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 20 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
A WELL DEFINED 1008 MB LOW WAS ALONG THE ITCZ AT 11N120W WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING NNE AND SSW. THIS LOW HAS BECOME STATIONARY
AND MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ARE
CONSIDERED LOW. FURTHER TO THE E...ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 102W
AND 105W...A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
TONIGHT...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT IS LIGHT AND HAS
DIMINISHED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SHARP TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE
HAS RECENTLY BEEN SUGGESTED BY SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THIS BROAD
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SLOWLY W INTO
THE WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...BEFORE
BEGINNING TO LIFT NE AND E LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN
THIS TIME FRAME.
For a "nothing" storm caused quite a bit of damage and a sleepless night for my chief meteorologist watching the radar for "hook" echos.
Yes. Lake areas northward didn't really get any heavy rains until yesterday and last night. Those should show up in tomorrow's readings as runoff comes in from the north.
Any rains south don't really benefit the lake.
I keep forgetting that Florida is relatively flat. Up north, when we get rain, the first things to fill is the rivers and lakes, and they continue to fill even after the rain has stopped.
Maybe that will stop the downplaying.
Mmmmm...had burled crawfish last night....and corn, and potatoes...and beer! And the company paid for it! Not liking that last map you posted! lol
Viewing: 1 - 51
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index