Florida's soaking continues; 5th warmest April for the globe
The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 13.3 inches have been measured in Northern Florida in Flagler County over the past three days, with another 2 - 4 inches expected from the storm. The storm is bringing beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal to the Northeast Florida coast, along with damaging thunderstorm winds. While the storm's center is located just offshore Southwest Florida, a large band of precipitation arcs to the north and east, extending over northern Florida. This type of structure is typical of subtropical storms, though the storm does not have enough heavy thunderstorm activity or warm core air to qualify as a subtropical storm. The storm is under about 30 knots of wind shear, and shows no signs of developing more tropical characteristics. The computer models generally predict the storm should weaken this week as it moves towards Louisiana or Texas. As the center moves farther north over the next few days, it will be moving into a region of lower wind shear, and I still give the storm a 20% chance of becoming a subtropical depression 2 - 7 days from now.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
Fifth warmest April on record
The globe recorded its 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - April was tied for the sixth warmest such period on record. April marked the first time since October 2008 that the planet has recorded a monthly temperature anomaly in the top five warmest months. The warming may be due to the fact that a La Niña event ended in the Eastern Pacific in April. Global temperature records go back to 1880.
A cool, wet April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April temperatures were the 36th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was also quite wet, ranking as the 35th wettest April. The warmest state was New Hampshire, which recorded its 8th warmest April. The coldest state was South Dakota, which wad its 25th coldest April. Through April, U.S. tornado activity was very close to the mean observed during the past five years, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, there were just 15 tornado deaths through April, compared to 70 deaths through April of 2008, and the 3-year average of 60 deaths.
On May 12, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. However, The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, had increased from 1.2% at the beginning of the year to 2.6% by May 12. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas and South Florida.
La Niña officially over
The La Niña event of September 2008 - March 2009 is officially over, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. Temperatures warmed significantly in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific during April, and are now near average in the Niña 3.4 region. Most of the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Three out of 16 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 30% chance of an El Niño event during the coming hurricane season. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds.
Sea ice in the Arctic below average, but not greatly so
April 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 10th lowest since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record April low was set in 2007. The rate of ice decline in April was the third slowest on record, thanks to cooler than usual temperatures over the Arctic. Nevertheless, the Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures return to the region. Strong winter winds pushed a considerable amount of multi-year-old ice out of the Arctic this year, leaving the Arctic with the lowest amount of old sea ice on record in March. The amount of ice more than two years old fell below 10% for the first time since satellites began observing the ice in 1979.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami. Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information
Latest WV Image
Latest IR Loop
I agree... the convection is def trying to wrap the center of the low pressure... also more convection firing... I think we will get an invest within 24hrs
The plot is **HUGE**! 6 MB for a single image.
http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi/l3/T20091292009136.L3m_8D_SST4_4.png?sub=img
color bar:
it is not on the images
8-days with no data for an area east or west of Africa...clouds. No temps below 25 in the GoM, except where surrounding by cloud holes and likely contaminated by them.
Wonder if we'll see 91L.
We can see how much it grows between now and 8pm CST. 3 hours.
Still ,Latest Viz GOM
"Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NNE ( 12 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 72.5 °F"
In the map blues are below ~17 C! OK, we have some ~22C near river outflows and we have 26C out in the middle, but low teens!?! Nope. Rarely in January...
Agreed, I didn't pay attention that the blues were below 17. Out of here, I'll check back later!
The Gulf low is just about to be all on its own and truly cut-off. The circulation has handled the dry air well up to now-it never lost the feed of Pacific moisture wrapping into the center. This is coming to an end and the low will have to moisten up the atmosphere all by itself.
Link
May 8 2007
May 20 2009
It may end up on the south tip of Cumberland. That'll be a lot of fun picking that up. Maybe one of the subs at King's Bay can snag it from underneath!
I think it may be stuck on Stafford Shoals right now.
Image from Wikipedia.
Notice the dry air intrusion during genesis. The dry air intrude then eventually wrapped around a region of moisture to become Andrea.
:(
Almost identical looking.
I understand girl... Must of us along the coast from Freeport to over here in Orange aren't really looking forward to another storm hitting here.
Not even a storm coming here (which I am praying we've had our one storm for the next 20 years), but it's the thought of a storm hitting anyone. It just makes me sick.
Why be even in here? I wouldnt want to even hear about tropical storms or hurricanes unless a hurricane was within 48hrs of striking...then I would to the NHC site.
After Rita and then Ike, I don't think I could wish one of these beast on anyone, likewise, but I sure don't want to get another monster like that. Life is just getting back to normal here. The little town I live beside which was completely inundated with 4 feet of water is just about completely normal again. YEA!
48 hours before a hurricane strike? That would leave you up a creek.
Something about watching these things form fascinate me. I love weather and how it forms. Basically a learning experience for me.
This water runs much deeper than the shelf water, and the existing COC at that point will probably try to stay near that warm spot as long as possible before making its northwest move. That's probably 90L's best chance at becoming sub-tropical if convection can consolidate a bit around the COC over that warm patch of water.
That's quite a piece of real estate!!
I dont think anyone wants a Cat 2 or higher coming right @ them...but I would think 80% of the people in here get excited and want to see a tropical system form and bring them weather..as long as its not a Cat 2 where there is destruction.. most in here are weather enthusiests (sp?).. we love weather.
People that dont want a season to start..probably shouldnt be in here..cause there are many hypecasters that will scare them to thinking something is coming and big.
I would just think..if someone doesnt want to hear about or think about the season to come..avoid the thought.
I didn't know a weather system could "try" to do anything. They don't have intent or desires, and they are not drawn to warmer water, they just go where the steering currents take them. A similar common misunderstanding is that hurricanes "follow" the Gulfstream because they "feed" off the warmer water. In reality it just happens that the steering currents turn systems north in the vicinity of the Gulfstream.
Beer tax on tap for health care?
Published - May 20 2009 01:32PM EDT
By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR - Associated Press Writer
Joe Six-Pack may have to hand over nearly $2 more for a case of beer to help provide health insurance for all.
Details of the proposed beer tax are described in a Senate Finance Committee document distributed to lawmakers before a closed-door meeting Wednesday. Senators are focusing on how to pay for expanding health insurance for an estimated 50 million uninsured Americans, a cost that could range to some $1.5 trillion over 10 years.
Yes steering currents are the primary sense of direction for tropical systems, but I'm sure you have seen how a LLC will "jump" under new convection? That is in a sense what I mean. The center of a system will naturally be drawn towards the area most conducive for it if possible. That patch of warm water will feed the strongest thunderstorms that if not sheared may allow a more consolidated COC to form and possibly transition into a warm-core system.
Gonna play tennis on a nice summer day in Alaska :) later all.
It's the good, the bad and the ugly. Love watching them form, love learning what makes them do whatever they do, but don't like that they can't just vanish into thin air and not hurt anyone. I think that is most of us on here.
.....just wait until the hurricanes come...LOL
WV
IR
Hiya Tim....Ike...Pat...everyone.
Looks like something a little bit facinating to watch already. Maybe a little more warm cored over the loop current? *shrugs* Awwwwwwwwwful dry up in this part of the gulf coast.
ok ...sounds good!
Hey Lynn...WOW the gang is all in......LOL..Great to hear from you.....
Viewing: 601 - 651
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index