Gulf of Mexico low growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on May 21, 2009

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The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly west-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 23.75 inches have been measured in Northern Florida at the Flagler County Fairgrounds over the past four days, and Daytona Beach has seen over 14 inches, forcing closure of numerous roads. Another 1 - 3 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should gradually subside Friday and the rains should diminish substantially on Saturday, when the center of the storm is expected to move ashore over Louisiana.


Figure 1. Storm total rainfall estimated from the Melbourne radar.

Latest visible satellite loops show that the circulation of the low has grown more circular and better defined, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build off the Gulf Coast of Florida on the low's east side. These thunderstorms are beginning to form spiral bands characteristic of a developing tropical depression. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the low is moving into an area of dry continental air, though, and this dry air will slow development. Wind shear is about 20 knots, which is low enough to allow development. While none of the computer models develop the storm, they generally predict the storm should move northwestwards towards Louisiana over the next two days, and the shear is lower to the north. The low is currently over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of about 27°C in the Loop Current, which is about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than average. SSTs of at least 26°C are typically needed to support a tropical storm, so I expect the low will continue to develop through Friday. By Friday night, the low will be approaching the Louisiana coast, and SSTs will cool to 26°C. Still, with wind shear expected to drop, this low has a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression before its expected landfall Saturday over Louisiana. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 3 - 6 inches can be expected.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.

I'll have an update Friday morning, or sooner if NHC declares this storm an area of interest (an "Invest").

Jeff Masters

Majestic (earthlydragonfly)
Taken last night with a 16mm lense. Enjoy Mark www.shockpic.smugmug.com
Majestic

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897. hydrus
9:42 PM GMT on April 13, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
hush up, ya'll. NorthEast Florida hasn't seen a real cane since Dora of '64.
Hurricane David was pretty strong near the coast there.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21209
896. surfmom
4:41 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting theshepherd:
Kelly Slater is a phenomenal athlete and I bow at his feet. His "DNA", not birthright, is his claim to fame. Leaving Florida and traveling the world to gain experience elsewhere catapulted his career. Nobody, repeat nobody, that surfs Fla alone should be claiming mastery.


I didn't say that... His start was from these shores... that was what I meant.

Well the low in the gulf has generated some sweet waves this morning.... the weather was a trip.... from sunny, to squally, to sunny again
A real day in the elements
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
895. stillwaiting
1:42 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting MissNadia:
The local rag (Wilmington Star News) had an article on beaches this morning:
SIESTA BEACH ,Sarasota Fl is rated #2!!!!!


Morining fellow wunderbloggers!!!
sweeeet....... I'm on my balcony looking at it right now,white sand beaches w/sand thats 99% pure quartz and the texture of baby powder....no wonder its #2.......and the water is usually blueish-green
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
894. DaytonaBeachWatcher
1:40 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
new blog
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
893. Michfan
1:39 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Surfmom the parking at Siesta is terrible. One of the main reasons we would forgoe trying to go on the weekends and just skip school during the week to get our fix of the beach. More often than not if you don't get to the main parking lot by 9 am you can forget getting any decent parking.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1732
892. beell
1:31 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
NWS Area Forecast Discussions
Houston, TX
Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Shreveport, LA
Jackson, MS
Mobile, AL
Birmingham, AL
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16647
891. RTLSNK
1:24 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Will check back later for updates.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20968
890. theshepherd
1:18 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting surfmom:


You just pushed my button --better give the stick back to KEH..ahemmmmmmmmmm Cory, Shea, Slater -- they surf Waimea & the Pipeline and THEY WIN DUDE...... Mavericks is for the Giant Wave dudes and grace/style is not what they're about.

BTW --- It's sooo good to see you, I was worried you were swamped in the Glades or got your fishing lines tangled w/a Tarpon and went for a ride to Trin.
Kelly Slater is a phenomenal athlete and I bow at his feet. His "DNA", not birthright, is his claim to fame. Leaving Florida and traveling the world to gain experience elsewhere catapulted his career. Nobody, repeat nobody, that surfs Fla alone should be claiming mastery.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
889. Orcasystems
1:17 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting surfmom:


MISSNADIA - SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! (ROTFL) I HATE (I rarely use that word) when that report gets published.... it's much better to be a well-kept secret.......

We'd be #1 if we had more amenities....like parking spaces for locals....grrrr
But now perhaps Orca will get his vacation plans straight...... and in spite of what the Panhandle Girls say...... I think I have the sweet spot....shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!


I'm not so sure... all it seems to do down there lately is rain.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
888. TampaSpin
1:17 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
871. Orcasystems 8:59 AM EDT on May 22, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
I updated my Blog this morning if anyone would like to view......thanks!

TampaSpins Link

I thought this was your Blog?


I do both and both are current....Whats the problem? WOW....The WebSite has also the WU link at the top TaB if you haven't noticed!

TampaSpins Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
886. luvnbrat64
1:15 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Yep afraid of that radar doesnt look good at all, think I will stay in and have a pj day LOL
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
885. Thundercloud01221991
1:15 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ550-570-221430-
/O.NEW.KMLB.MA.W.0020.090522T1311Z-090522T1430Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
911 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM.

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 907 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ABOUT 18 MILES EAST OF PORT
ORANGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT.

* THE STORM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
ORMOND BEACH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU SIGHT A WATERSPOUT...CONTACT THE COAST GUARD VIA MARINE RADIO
OR LOCAL OFFICIALS AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

IF A WATERSPOUT APPROACHES YOU ON LAND...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IN
THE INTERIOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. WATERSPOUTS CAN PRODUCE DAMAGE AS
THEY COME ASHORE.

&&

LAT...LON 2947 8111 2949 8076 2886 8037 2883 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 1307Z 123DEG 15KT 2912 8065

$$


MRV
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
883. RTLSNK
1:12 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Surfy, Shep, Orca, Pottery, Miss Nadia and Dr. Snake, all on at the same time with a little rain maker in the GOM. This should be an interesting weekend.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20968
882. surfmom
1:10 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting MissNadia:
The local rag (Wilmington Star News) had an article on beaches this morning:
SIESTA BEACH ,Sarasota Fl is rated #2!!!!!


MISSNADIA - SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! (ROTFL) I HATE (I rarely use that word) when that report gets published.... it's much better to be a well-kept secret.......

We'd be #1 if we had more amenities....like parking spaces for locals....grrrr
But now perhaps Orca will get his vacation plans straight...... and in spite of what the Panhandle Girls say...... I think I have the sweet spot....shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
881. Orcasystems
1:10 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting potteryX:
Good Morning.
Interesting features in the Caribbean and Gulf.
Deaths already reported in Dom.Rep and Haiti from heavy rains. This is very early in the season for them to be experiencing heavy rain.

Looking at the Trop. Atl., very little SAL anywhere, and mid level moisture is quite high. The ITCZ seems to have gone to sleep though.


You have to get a avatar for this profile..I missed your post completely. When are you due back home to your little spot in paradise... or are you going home?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
880. luvnbrat64
1:09 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Here in Port Orange (Daytona Beach) and its raining again..is it ever going to stop??Streets closed all over the place, some schools closed , need water wings for my jack russell to even go outside, alot of homes and businesses flooded, very very sad
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
879. surfmom
1:06 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:

Have a good one SF, don't tell the girls what your planning for their eggs.


hee, hee -- I would use supermarket eggs for that pleasure......my girl's eggs have more value then the dollar presently --wouldn't wast that on idiots..... see you in the water WhaleMan
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
878. MissNadia
1:05 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
The local rag (Wilmington Star News) had an article on beaches this morning:
SIESTA BEACH ,Sarasota Fl is rated #2!!!!!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
877. surfmom
1:05 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
POTTERY/SNAKE Good AM!!! - saw the mess by Haiti... this poor country...... and it's people...so much suffering to begin with.... now flooding again....... I may get that island it's own prayer candle this year.....
Ok - I'm OUT
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
876. Orcasystems
1:03 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting surfmom:
Egg throwing..... I kinda like that idea....

Watch out Shep...ROTFL

Well, Neptune's calling I'm out --I good as long as there's no T-storms

Have a good one SF, don't tell the girls what your planning for their eggs.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
875. Orcasystems
1:02 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting RTLSNK:
66*F with 98% heavy air this morning in Macon, Georgia. Little upper bands of rain from this thing come in over Savannah, then roll up I-16 right into Macon. No thunder boomers, just nice steady rain.


Morning Snake.. good to see your staying out of the Area of Interests for a couple days.. maybe SB's flowers will stay in the ground now.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
874. surfmom
1:00 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Egg throwing..... I kinda like that idea....

Watch out Shep...ROTFL

Well, Neptune's calling I'm out --I good as long as there's no T-storms
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
873. RTLSNK
12:59 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
66*F with 98% heavy air this morning in Macon, Georgia. Little upper bands of rain from this thing come in over Savannah, then roll up I-16 right into Macon. No thunder boomers, just nice steady rain.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20968
872. potteryX
12:59 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Good Morning.
Interesting features in the Caribbean and Gulf.
Deaths already reported in Dom.Rep and Haiti from heavy rains. This is very early in the season for them to be experiencing heavy rain.

Looking at the Trop. Atl., very little SAL anywhere, and mid level moisture is quite high. The ITCZ seems to have gone to sleep though.
871. Orcasystems
12:59 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
I updated my Blog this morning if anyone would like to view......thanks!

TampaSpins Link


I thought this was your Blog?

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
869. TampaSpin
12:56 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
I updated my Blog this morning if anyone would like to view......thanks!

TampaSpins Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
868. eye2theskies
12:54 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Morning all... 73F with a shower here in the Fort Myers area. Looks like things might be clearing up a bit for us later on this afternoon.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
867. surfmom
12:54 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting theshepherd:
ROFLMAO
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?


You just pushed my button --better give the stick back to KEH..ahemmmmmmmmmm Cory, Shea, Slater -- they surf Waimea & the Pipeline and THEY WIN DUDE...... Mavericks is for the Giant Wave dudes and grace/style is not what they're about.

BTW --- It's sooo good to see you, I was worried you were swamped in the Glades or got your fishing lines tangled w/a Tarpon and went for a ride to Trin.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
866. Orcasystems
12:53 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hey ORCA that blob is still holding it's own eh!, wonder whats gonna be the outcome any ides?


I honestly thought after looking at the shear maps yesterday.. that it wouldn't be there this morning... so its already starting out as a strange year.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
865. kmanhurricaneman
12:52 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
hey ORCA that blob is still holding it's own eh!, wonder whats gonna be the outcome any ides?
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
863. Orcasystems
12:41 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting theshepherd:
ROFLMAO
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?


Where have you been hiding... KEH wants her stir stick back.. washed even
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
862. Orcasystems
12:39 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
861. Nolehead
12:39 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
ROFLMAO
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?
Action: Quote | Ignore User


LOL, i wish...no if you ever have surfed any of our crap..(which alot of times it is) then go to the east coast or costa...then you realize what real waves are and you just tear them up cause your are so use to riding crap...hell i wish it got that big, surfmom might not but i sure do...LOL

i'm out...everyone be safe today!!!
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
859. Chicklit
12:37 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Hi SurfMom, yup have had a bit a rain up here this week and it's still coming down. Have shoveled a berm at the end of my driveway for two days, each day a bigger better berm only to have it wash away from the water running downhill. (My cable wire was exposed there due to the installers not digging a deep enough trench!) Oh well, that's it for my damage. Those poor folks in Daytona and Holly Hill are in a real mess with their houses under water and vehicles driving by, kicking up wakes...one lady was out there throwing eggs at them for not slowing down. It's sad.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
858. theshepherd
12:34 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting Nolehead:
842. leftovers 12:02 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
if i was young again and a surfer i sure would not live in florida its pretty much flat all yr. you only live once might as well


well we aren't lucky enough to have a great reef or an ocean, cause we are gulf coast surfers so we get what we can get....but it gets better than you think some times...but if you can surf our junk you can surf anywhere!!
ROFLMAO
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
857. Nolehead
12:32 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
THIS IS SOOOOOOOOOOO TRUE!!! Just look at Corey Lopez, Shea .... and many others that have grown up on this Gulf. The Style, Grace, technique of these guys -- takes my breath away.

oh and by the way...Kelly Slater..who only is the best surfer ever came from Cocoa Bch...so there is something to be said about Fl surf...just an FYI!!
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
856. Nolehead
12:30 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
well, time for a morning session...talk to all of you later on...surfmom hope you get some fun stuff....
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
855. Cotillion
12:26 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting surfmom:
Good Morning Cot., We've got some weather here....but at least the threat of fires has been reduced.....


And any drought conditions should be alleviated somewhat, one imagines?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
854. surfmom
12:24 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Good Morning Cot., We've got some weather here....but at least the threat of fires has been reduced.....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
853. Nolehead
12:24 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
surfmom, that looks exactly what we have had for teh past 2 days ne/e winds slight offshore and perfect....just ride and ride...today has more bumps in it cause of the onshore, but hey i'll take it all day long!!!
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
852. surfmom
12:22 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting Nolehead:
842. leftovers 12:02 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
if i was young again and a surfer i sure would not live in florida its pretty much flat all yr. you only live once might as well


well we aren't lucky enough to have a great reef or an ocean, cause we are gulf coast surfers so we get what we can get....but it gets better than you think some times...but if you can surf our junk you can surf anywhere!!


THIS IS SOOOOOOOOOOO TRUE!!! Just look at Corey Lopez, Shea .... and many others that have grown up on this Gulf. The Style, Grace, technique of these guys -- takes my breath away.

This low made waves that look like this:


and I really had a good time on them...nothing epic...but no fearing for my life either.....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
851. MahFL
12:20 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Gulfcoastdweller, he and his wife eventually bought a house about 6 blocks further back from the beach, he lives in Longbeach, MS. Where he did have a house was not in a flood zone, but Katrina sent a 25+ ft storm surge there....
He also was NOT originally going to evacuate as he is a stubborn old so and so.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3492
850. Gulfsyed
12:20 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting surfmom:
Morning All - waves or no waves that is the question for me this AM... Got an hour window for some surf... but it looks like I got a band of storms conflicting with my hearts desire.

71 degrees, overcast, humidity 93% LOL, 29.87 -- breeze, barely
In just two days...I went from a desert to a rain forest..serious rainforest

Looks like possibly thigh high waves out in the Gulf - also some nasty squalling running up the coat... bit dicy


SURFMOM, I am crossing my fingers and not checking until 9 as the swell did not show yesterday til 830 so it wll definitley be smaller but there has to be some waves, I will be on my Long Board in case they are small...
849. Cotillion
12:19 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
Quoting surfmom:


True, True.... I'm a late bloomer...started at 49yrs -can't complain too much.... I get enough to keep me happy...I'd have more opportunity if I didn't have to work, and be a mom, wife, cook, grocery mule.......chauffeur... but I DO DREAM of having a warm water abode with a wave machine everyday when I walked out the front door!!!


Hey Surfie:)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
848. MahFL
12:16 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
They have been bumming around on the Shuttle for 1 and a half days now. Now they get another day of Earth gazing from space, nice work if you can get it !
I assume the will try for Edwards tomorrow, as I can't see central FL being cloud/rain free any time soon.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3492
847. IKE
12:10 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
No shuttle landing today due to bad weather in Florida.

per CNN.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.