Gulf of Mexico storm not likely to become a depression; storm kills 11 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on May 22, 2009

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The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.

The worst of the rain and flooding is over for Florida, which has seen rainfall amounts this week as high as 23.75 inches at the Flagler County Fairgrounds. Another 1 - 2 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 6 - 8 foot waves, and tides 1 - 2 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should subside substantially on Saturday.


Figure 1. Long range radar out of New Orleans.

The storm responsible for the heavy rains is now headed north-northwest, and should make landfall Saturday near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The storm has developed a warm core at low levels, and NHC designated it Invest 90L late this morning. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the storm's circulation, but development is being hindered by dry air, and wind shear of 20 knots. Long range radar out of New Orleans (Figure 1) shows little organization or banding of the radar echoes. With only 24 hours to go until the system moves inland, it does not have enough time to develop into a depression. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 2 - 4 inches can be expected.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Portlight.org/wunderground shirts are now available on Ebay.

Jeff Masters

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1672. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Roger that...but I don't think it warmed above mid level...if that.


Yes it did:
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1671. Drakoen
According to the cross sections from AMSU, I believe it is fully warm core:
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Does anyone have a link to the GFS and NAM model severe weather graphics?
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I guess it was a random storm because by 10pm it disappeared
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A flight sure would have settled it, but would the $$$ have been worth it? And, of course, there is always some risk associated with each flight.
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55 million dollars is a pretty large scale number ;-)
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
H23, the shear sure backed off, can see upper anticyclone forming. Given a few more hours...


FSU phase seems to suggests that it might have become tropical right before moving onshore.We'll see what the NHC does
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SC2007:the MLC became the dominant feature and this should be classified a STS when the seasons over...**takes crow wing and throws it at the wall**....next time if your going to be the one to cook my crow don't burn it!!!;),lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
It seems that the Power grids here in South Florida are not as tough as FPL has said they are: "hurricane ready." Heck a small thunderstorm takes out half of northern broward's power grid easily. What does this tell all of us south floridians about hurricane season?

Not much.
The power was out for about 4 minutes where I am in North Broward.
Sorta' been like that for the last 25 summers I've been down here. I'd estimate that my area will lose power like this 50-100 times this summer, all non-tropical related.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good morning all! I noticed that we had another tropical dud, it figures. Anyways, what's coming down the pipe line next?


don't tell all the people who had their homes flooded due to this storm a dud... i think they would dislike you for that
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Yep we got an URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY as of now in BoCA rATON
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1659. hahaguy
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
I think we beat our deficit here today with about 5 inches of rain this morning.


Send some up here to PSL.
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H23, the shear sure backed off, can see upper anticyclone forming. Given a few more hours...
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Well whatever 90l is. It is going to be a big rainmaker if it keeps the moisture with it and moves as slow as the models suggest.

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I think we beat our deficit here today with about 5 inches of rain this morning.
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Crow tastes bad...

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Shuttle landing cancelled

Article from: Reuters
From correspondents in Cape Canaveral

May 23, 2009

BAD weather forced the cancellation of the landing of the space shuttle Atlantis today, and NASA said it would try to bring it back to Earth tomorrow.

"The weather at the Kennedy Space Center (in Florida) has not cooperated ... we are waiving for the day," a NASA official said.

Clouds and rain showers over Florida caused NASA flight directors yesterday to keep the shuttle and its seven-member crew in orbit an extra day after its Hubble Space telescope repair mission.

Too much rain or too many clouds violates the space agency's criteria for a safe landing.

NASA has four scheduled opportunities on Sunday for Atlantis to land either at Kennedy Space Center in Florida or at the alternative touchdown site at the Edwards Air Force Base in California.

Atlantis has enough supplies to stay in orbit until Monday after its 12-day mission that repaired and upgraded the Hubble Space Telescope.

Due to the unstable weather over Florida, NASA is staffing its backup landing site at Edwards Air Force Base in California's Mojave Desert.

Landing in California costs NASA more than $1 million and it takes a week or two to prepare and transport the shuttle on top of a jet carrier aircraft back to Florida for its next launch.
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I just heard that 2!Getting closer!Ah lol
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<--- now has "lake front" property (I'm in West Boca too) !!!!!!!
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Large HI-RES of 90L moving onshore.
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I feel like going out to the beach and burying my head in the sand like an ostrich
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The audio dropped out of the live feed.

I did a test of the system using the GoToMyPC.com

I discovered that abacast dropped the audio...so I restarted the encoder [mind you, it's running on a Dell Mini-9 outside in a box] from here in the comfort of my command center...and wah La! Audio is back on.

PensacolaDoug is gonna have to stay on top of it when this thing is deployed and he's in charge of running it for you folks...and I have full faith and trust that he will! :)
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Uggh we should be in a flash flood warning any minute now cause the canal in my back yard has just about a foot and half then it would flood over.
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Storm, Northern Broward County here
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Quoting hurricane23:


Its history...I do agree with your statements here and a possible upgrade to a TD or maybe a weak TS is possible after the season is over at best track.


thanks, this is too impressive to pass through on Post Analysis. Probably what StormW said earlier "Subtropical Storm 1"
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For some reason at this current time (9:30 pm) i am getting a lot of wind, but no rain and no thunder or lightning. Is this part of the storm or is this a separate system. If you want i can update on the condition as we go.
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Sammy and plywood what part of Palm Beach county do you live in or what part of Boca?I live in West Boca....right in the middle of this storm that is not moving away!Stationary right now
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I literally have fish on my porch, if that tells ya anything. Every pond here has overflowed and we have ponding in the streets. Some low lying areas in broward have flooded streets, and alot of downed trees.

Hail in Downtown Ft. Lauderdale yesterday and high winds.
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1638. Drakoen
Center about to make landfall.
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Quoting reedzone:
Yes, from the bouy reports, the satellite and radar indicates to me this is a minimal 40 mph. Tropical Storm making landfall!
OR it could be a 35 mph Tropical Depression...

NOT Extratropical


Its history...I do agree with your statements here and a possible upgrade to a TD after the season is over at best track.
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No.. it will be a Post Analysis Storm, come on now guys, look at this system!! that's not your ordinary invest. it's a Tropical Depression at best, the NHC just didn't name it because 1. too close to land 2. economy, didn't want to waste money on a TD 3.keeping the tradition of naming a storm after June 1st after 2 years of early systems.
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Drak,

Anyone got the troll-i-cide?
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I wonder if 90L will pull an Arthur or a Nana (Nana only had one or two advisories before it dissipated).
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sammy, 80% of rain on Monday
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zoo, the first storm will tell us how good our grids really are
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1628. Drakoen
Quoting reedzone:
Yes, from the bouy reports, the satellite and radar indicates to me this is a minimal 40 mph. Tropical Storm making landfall!
OR it could be a 35 mph Tropical Depression...

NOT Extratropical


It is nothing more than Invest 90L.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Hey guys here is thie video I submitted and it is still like this in Boca.Link


That's what it's like here, except there seems to be MUCH more lightning where I am.
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Location is everything - for the most part we have dodged the rain in South Dade. Its like the clouds parted and went up each side of the state. I don't want 24" of rain, thank you - a few inches everyday is just fine with me.

Our electric also went out on Sunday night, the days that the rain was heavy. I've watched them hardening the lines in our area, sort of surprised it still goes down.
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Drak,

Exposed or not, its still impressive
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Quoting stillwaiting:
I see your birdies oz!!!!,check your msn mail,I just sent you some mail!!!!


Okay...got it. Good job, man!
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I know right!Its funny like it happens to me too.
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1622. Patrap
90L IR Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125433

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.