Gulf of Mexico storm not likely to become a depression; storm kills 11 in Haiti
The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.
The worst of the rain and flooding is over for Florida, which has seen rainfall amounts this week as high as 23.75 inches at the Flagler County Fairgrounds. Another 1 - 2 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 6 - 8 foot waves, and tides 1 - 2 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should subside substantially on Saturday.
Figure 1. Long range radar out of New Orleans.
The storm responsible for the heavy rains is now headed north-northwest, and should make landfall Saturday near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The storm has developed a warm core at low levels, and NHC designated it Invest 90L late this morning. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the storm's circulation, but development is being hindered by dry air, and wind shear of 20 knots. Long range radar out of New Orleans (Figure 1) shows little organization or banding of the radar echoes. With only 24 hours to go until the system moves inland, it does not have enough time to develop into a depression. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 2 - 4 inches can be expected.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Portlight.org/wunderground shirts are now available on Ebay.
Jeff Masters
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AOI #1
AOI #2
Latest WV Image,GOM
I hope you pick a strong limb to stand on :)
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHICH IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 8N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
PROBABLY ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS IN COLOMBIA FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
NHC says right in their discussion that it is a 1007mb surface low. I wouldnt doubt THEM.
Model Cycle: 2009052206
North America: Model Tracks for Mid-Latitude Cyclones
SREF Ensemble
GFS
In hindsight lol, at the surface and low levels. Dry continental air in the wake of a fairly strong May cold front surpressed convection on the west side of the low complex. Did some checking and surface temp/dewpoint spreads were 20F, 30F, and close to 40F along the west central gulf coast. Dry low level source air may have had more to do with the failure to sustain convection on the west side-more of a factor than the shear? Maybe.
The long easterly fetch of moisture on the N side of the system-from the eastern gulf/Atlantic will finally wrap into the area today and help moisten things up. And the west side should respond.
Be my guest.........but I have a feeling StormW won't be adding it to his list of Meteorology terms. Back to the weather. I wish something would come along and push this Gulf low inland a little east of Mobile. I hate my Memorial Day weekend is giong to be a complete washout. Pat, could you get everyone in NOLA to turn on their fans and aim them east......that might help.
But the second posibility is this BLOB stay in the central caribean and wait the shear relax ..... It will be a big touble over there.
Alright.. I went and got a coffee... did he just ask if I doctored a map/weather chart?
It should be there on the 12Z map. They mentioned it in their discussion.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHICH IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 8N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
PROBABLY ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS IN COLOMBIA FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
Gotta disagree about the surface Low....just checked Quikscat...Maybe something over land...LOL
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
Just realized, the one they mention is in Columbia... farther S.
GOM Floater - Visible Loop
Don't mean any disrespect to anyone, but don't you all read the entire discussion and comprehend it. It specifically states that the 1007mb low is IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. There is no low anywhere in the Caribbean at this time.
Really doesn't matter much. Very inhospitable environment for tropical development.
Chief Meteorologist Forecast Outlook (0900z 22MAY)
==================================================
The low pressure area over east central & adjoining west central Bay of Bengal persists. Current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models indicate the system is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 36 hours.
No problem CCHS... caught myself. See 77. :)
You'd have a LOT of people in Destin (including the thousands of vacationers coming in) mad at you for that...don't forget about us now!
Take a chill......CCHS....its all good! "COMPREHEND" is that a word allowed to be used on this blog........LOL
Good Morning StormSurgeon
I have 2 100' cords if you need them....
Taco :0)
She has Guests I believe.
I'll send her a wu-mail.
*disappears back to lurkdom*
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 05/22/09 26.6N 87.3W 25 1006 Invest
12 GMT 05/22/09 26.6N 87.3W 25 1006 Invest
I'm not, but they seem to be rearranging some things, like moving discussion to the right iso under TWO.
Sorry about that. Don't normally act like that. Guess I'm just cranky today since I didn't get much sleep last night.
Sorry but, i don't see a LLC.....its all in the UL.....look at post 73 NOTHING
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