Season's first tropical depression forms
Nature is jumping the gun a bit this year, with the season's first tropical depression forming four days before the official start to hurricane season. The area of disturbed weather (91L) that we've been watching, about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity and spin to be classified as a tropical depression. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph. Satellite estimates (using a cloud pattern recognition method called the "Dvorak" technique) were saying this was a tropical depression this morning, though, so the NHC elected to upgrade the system.
The disturbance is over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream (25°C) and has wind shear of 5 - 10 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Friday, when the system will likely move over waters too cold to support intensification. TD One is not a threat to any land areas. I give the storm a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Ana.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD One.
Is the formation of TD One a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
Probably not. Early season storms occurring near the U.S. coast have not been shown to be correlated with an active main portion of hurricane season during August - October. However, the situation is different if we start getting June and July storms in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This was the case last year, when the formation of Hurricane Bertha in the deep tropics in July presaged an active 2008 hurricane season. According to the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during June and July have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a June/July storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."
Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida last week, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Equipment will also be provided to local shelters and other organizations working with flood victims. To help out, visit the Portlight disaster relief blog..
Figure 2. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Images credit: NOAA.
Jeff Masters
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Sunday
Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Highs 91 to 94.
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates
TD 1
AOI #2
Post 494, its good to see that this is making "front page" news again. What will the reactions be ???
At 11n 61w, we have had a few gentle showers this morning. Temps yesterday 34c. This is very hot, for an island that is supposed to have its temp. regulated by the balmy sea breezes. Oh well.....
We have been hitting 30 pretty consistently up here also... its nice :)
What a bunch of HogWash.....Look who printed it.....LOL....and they exist as long a they make something out of nothing....WOW!
- Bhagaved Gita
Good morning and have a great day everyone.
This is a big issue that the world has to deal with sooner or later.
(Removed, not relevant to the blog)
???
I am reformed :)
Not playing that game anymore.. like talking to a brick wall.
2nd ???
Concentration is the best way to accomplish anything. Now that we're in a slow storm period, we can take advantage of the peace and THINK. Even if it's only about what you have to do today. If you concentrate on the tasks before you, then chances are, you'll have a better day. See ya!
Information is like a chisel on brick. As an example, the earlier article makes no reference to the impact on the starving population of the world by the recent focus on turning grain into gas instead of food for the hungry. They used to eat what now takes more energy, in total, to produce than it provides.
We are gathered here today to pay our final respects to TD1...aka Ha-Anna. She blossomed while grazing the outer banks of NC and points beyond. Only to be stripped of her title and reduced to a North Atlantic swirl.
May you rest in peace as you eventually get sucked into a North Atlantic non-tropical low.
Ethanol should be done away with in my opinion. We should focus of more fuel efficient cars like the Prius or other hybrids. Taking food and turning it into fuel makes no sense to me when so many are starving.
Thanks goodness, I didn't pick any dates in May for the first storm to form.
I believe that either way,this was the furthest north a TC has formed in the atlantic,I think,I saw the same thing last night on TWC..
I had the 21st..and it looked pretty good for awhile
I picked 6/6/09. I guess there is still time.
I don't see anything brewing... the models show something small starting and stopping over and over again in the BOC... but nothing close to firm.
I think we may have one brewing in the pacific to watch :)
That being said... I don't even pretend to know what I am talking about...I can understand models and graphics.. but thats about it. I leave the heavy predictions up to people like StormW and Weather 456, who actually appear to now what they are talking about (unlike a few others on here).
Tampa only has a 20% chance of rain on Saturday. Way below normal. It looks like WPB shows a 70% chance of rain though.
Also shows the Sat/Sun spoiler
Should that not work out I have to interject here.
U South Alabama - Mobile has a nice program and a couple of really good tropical researchers on staff.
Cannot forget U Alabama - Huntsville, Texas A&M (how did you other guys forget this one? Really.), U Washington, UCLA, Texas Tech, Illinois, SUNY - sometown, Valpo, Missouri - Springfield, Mississippi State, U Maryland, more-i-am-forgetiing.
Hmm why doesn't yours match this one?
gfs 2009052906 Forecast slp Java Animation
CMC develops that area.... i think
What do you drive?
cmc 2009052900 Forecast slp Java Animation
Develops the one in the pacific.. but not the GOM
yh
That isn't bad. Not too much different than my car. One day, I may even buy a hybrid.
(unfair comment, not sure if StormW knew we were talking about ethanol fuel, and changing food into fuel)
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