Sea level rise: what has happened so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 10, 2009

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Sea level has been rising globally since the late 1700s. This rise has accelerated in recent decades, thanks to increased melting of glaciers and ice sheets due to a warmer climate, plus the fact that warmer oceans are less dense and expand, further increasing sea level. Though sea level rise appears to have slowed over the past five years, it will significantly accelerate if the climate warms the 2 - 3°C it is expected to this century. If these forecasts of a warmer world prove accurate, higher sea levels will be a formidable challenge for millions of people world-wide during the last half of this century. Sea level rise represents one of my personal top two climate change concerns (drought is the other). I'll present a series of blog posts over the coming months focusing on at-risk areas in the U.S., Caribbean, and world-wide. Today, I focus on the observed sea level rise since the Ice Age.

What's at stake
Higher sea levels mean increased storm surge inundation, coastal erosion, loss of low-lying land areas, and salt water contamination of underground drinking water supplies. About 44% of the Earth's 6.7 billion people live within 150 km (93 miles) of the coast, and 600 million people live at an elevation less than ten meters (33 feet). Eight of the ten largest cities in the world are sited on the ocean coast. In the U.S., the coastal population has doubled over the past 50 years. Fourteen of the twenty largest urban centers are located within 100 km of the coast, and are less than ten meters above sea level (McGranahan et al., 2007). The population of many vulnerable coastal regions are expected to double by 2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Sea level rise since the Ice Age
Before the most recent Ice Age, sea level was about 4 - 6 meters (13 - 20 feet) higher than at present. Then, during the Ice Age, sea level dropped 120 meters (395 ft) as water evaporated from the oceans precipitated out onto the great land-based ice sheets. The former ocean water remained frozen in those ice sheets during the Ice Age, but began being released 12,000 - 15,000 years ago as the Ice Age ended and the climate warmed. Sea level increased about 115 meters over a several thousand year period, rising 40 mm/year (1.6"/yr) during one 500-year pulse of melting 14,600 years ago. The rate of sea level rise slowed to 11 mm/year (0.43"/yr) during the period 7,000 - 14,000 years ago (Bard et al., 1996), then further slowed to 0.5 mm/yr 6,000 - 3,000 years ago. About 2,000 - 3,000 years ago, the sea level stopped rising, and remained fairly steady until the late 1700s (IPCC 2007). One exception to this occurred during the Medieval Warm Period of 1100 - 1200 A.D., when warm conditions similar to today's climate caused the sea level to rise 5 - 8" (12 - 21 cm) higher than present (Grinsted et al., 2008). This was probably the highest the sea has been since the beginning of the Ice Age, 110,000 years ago. There is a fair bit of uncertainty in all these estimates, since we don't have direct measurements of the sea level.


Figure 1. Global sea level from 200 A.D. to 2000, as reconstructed from proxy records of sea level by Moberg et al. 2005. The thick black line is reconstructed sea level using tide gauges (Jevrejeva, 2006). The lightest gray shading shows the 5 - 95% uncertainty in the estimates, and the medium gray shading denotes the one standard deviation error estimate. The highest global sea level of the past 110,000 years likely occurred during the Medieval Warm Period of 1100 - 1200 A.D., when warm conditions similar to today's climate caused the sea level to rise 5 - 8" (12 - 21 cm) higher than present. Image credit: Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

Sea level rise over the past 300 years
Direct measurements of sea level using tide gauges began in Amsterdam in 1700. Additional tide gauges began recording data in Liverpool, England in 1768 and in Stockholm, Sweden in 1774. These gauges suggest that a steady acceleration of sea rise of 0.01 mm per year squared began in the late 1700s, resulting in a rise in sea level of 2.4" (6 cm, 0.6 mm/yr) during the 19th century and 7.5" (19 cm, 1.9 mm/yr) during the 20th century (Jevrejeva et al., 2008). There is considerable uncertainty in just how much sea level rise has occurred over the past few centuries, though. Measuring global average sea level rise is a very tricky business. For starters, one must account for the tides, which depend on the positions of the Earth and Moon on a cycle that repeats itself once every 18.6 years. Tide gauges are scattered, with varying lengths of record. The data must be corrected since land is sinking in some regions, due to pumping of ground water, oil and gas extraction, and natural compaction of sediments. Also, the land is rising in other regions, such as Northern Europe, where it is rebounding from the lost weight of the melted glaciers that covered the region during the last Ice Age. Ocean currents, precipitation, and evaporation can cause a 20 inch (50 cm) difference in sea level in different portions of the ocean. As a result of all this uncertainty, the 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report gave a range of 4 - 10" (10 - 25 cm) for the observed sea level rise of the 20th century. The 2007 IPCC report narrowed this range a bit, to 5 - 9" (12 - 22 cm), or 1.2 - 2.2 mm/year. Rates of sea level rise are much higher in many regions. In the U.S., the highest rates of sea-level rise are along the Mississippi Delta region--over 10 mm/yr, or 1 inch/2.5 years (USGS, 2006). This large relative rise is due, in large part, to the fact that the land is sinking.


Figure 2. Absolute sea level rise between 1955 and 2003 as computed from tide gauges and satellite imagery data. The data has been corrected for the rising or sinking of land due to crustal motions or subsidence of the land, so the relative sea level rise along the coast will be different than this. The total rise (in inches) for the 48-year period is given in the top scale, and the rate in mm/year is given in the bottom scale. The regional sea level variations shown here resulted not only from the input of additional water from melting of glaciers and ice caps, but also from changes in ocean temperature and density, as well as changes in precipitation, ocean currents, and river discharge. Image credit: IPCC, 2007

Sea level rise over the past 15 years
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report, sea level accelerated from the 1.2 - 2.2 mm/yr observed during the 20th century to 3.1 mm/year during the period 1993 - 2003. These estimates come from high resolution measurements from satellite radar altimeters, which began in 1992. Tide gauges showed a similar level of sea level rise during that ten-year period. The IPCC attributed more than half of this rise (1.6 mm/yr) to the fact that the ocean expanded in size due to increased temperatures. Another 1.2 mm/yr rise came from melting of Greenland, West Antarctica, and other land-based ice, and about 10% of the rise was unaccounted for. However, during the period 2003 - 2008, sea level rise slowed to 2.5 mm/year, according to measurements of Earth's gravity from the GRACE satellites (Cazenave et al., 2008). This reduction in sea level rise probably occurred because ocean sea surface temperatures have not warmed since 2003 (Figure 3). The authors concluded that sea level rise due to ocean warming decreased more than a factor of five from 2003 - 2008, compared to 1993 - 2003, contributing only 0.3 mm/yr vs. the 1.6 mm/yr previously.


Figure 3. Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1990-2008. SSTs have not increased in the past seven years. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

For more information
The best source of information I found while compiling my sea level pages was the Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region report by the U.S. Climate Science Program. It has a huge number of references to all the latest science being done on sea level rise.

References
Bard, E., et al., 1996, "Sea level record from Tahiti corals and the timing of deglacial meltwater discharge", Nature 382, pp241-244, doi:10.1038/382241a0.

Cazenave et al., 2008, "Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevaluation from satellite altimetry and Argo", Global and Planetary Change, 2008; DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.004

Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, 996 pp.

Jevrejeva, S., J.C. Moore, A. Grinsted,, and P.L. Woodworth, 2008, "Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?", Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L08715, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611, 2008.

McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Moberg, A., et al., 2005, "Highly variable northern hemisphere temperature reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data", Nature 433, pp613-617, doi:10.1038/nature03265.

United States Geological Survey (USGS), 2006, National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-179.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, and the only region worth watching is the Western Caribbean, which could see formation of a tropical disturbance with heavy thunderstorm activity this weekend.

Jeff Masters

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The NAM at 48 hours has the low east of Nicaragua

My opinion only, but I have no faith in the NAM with anything south of latitude 25 N.

OK, I never trust it with anything over water, either, but you get the point.
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Quoting Levi32:


Path yes.....timing no.

The NAM at 48 hours has the low east of Nicaragua, whereas the GFS has it clear up near Jamaica at that time:

NAM 48 hours:


GFS 48 hours:



Match those with the 200 mb winds, the GFS remains unreasonable.
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380. IKE
GFS,18Z, enters it into the SE GOM in 96 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting adrianalynne:


Hope this helps:
" http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644929&_dad=portal&_schema=PORT AL " Model Link is under forecast... they update after invest has been declared.


NOAA Page: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/




FSU Page: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

hope that helps





I dedicated my blog area to be a set of my personal favorite tropical links (without the need to deal with bookmarks on multiple PCs). It was entirely selfish, admittedly, but am happy to share.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/show.html
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Quoting IKE:


But it is slightly stronger on this run and aiming WNW...in general agreement with other models on path.


Path yes.....timing no.

The NAM at 48 hours has the low east of Nicaragua, whereas the GFS has it clear up near Jamaica at that time, which as 456 pointed out is not in sync with the retreat of the upper trough and associated strong wind shear:

NAM 48 hours:


GFS 48 hours:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
How about Da-weather !




374 - there are over 888 Sat's with various outputs 24x7x365. Sorry to drag it into the discussion, but I am still curious.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
376. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


As I and some others have been pointing out about the GFS for the last several days. It's too fast (still is on the new 18z run btw), and has issues with handling the pattern. The ECMWF has been my model of choice for this situation since last week. It has been very consistent.


But it is slightly stronger on this run and aiming WNW...in general agreement with other models on path.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I can never beat this

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting gator23:


Isnt the atmoshpere already being bombarded with microwaves anyway? Any impact would be minimal at best IMO

Good point. Besides microwaves, it also gets bombarded by everything from neutrinos (which move at a significant fraction of the speed of light) to gamma radiation (more energetic than microwave), to infrared (translates more easily to heat... as it is well... heat.)

A massive solar flare / CME will have the effect of heating the atmosphere by a few degrees C over 2 years. doubt a satellite system can do anything close.
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Quoting futuremet:


My videos are purely educational though...


As are mine, although my production techniques do tend towards some entertainment value.
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Quoting Levi32:


As I and some others have been pointing out about the GFS for the last several days. It's too fast (still is on the new 18z run btw), and has issues with handling the pattern. The ECMWF has been my model of choice for this situation since last week. It has been very consistent.


My thoughts exactly. The time frame shear relaxes complies with the ECMWF. The GFS developed a closed low in a time frame quicker than shear is expected to relax.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


lol Makoto :~)

Not sure how long you have been reading the blogs, but I doubt that will be the first or last time you see that link. Usually it is posted in response to a question, but figured if I was going to call any other site "second rate"; then I should make sure to include mine.

The problem with this whole "create your own weather site" is that rarely do individuals have what it takes to make it to the next level. Not only do you have to offer something extremely unique, but you also have to have patience, the capability of marketing it, and the ability to sell it. Also have to be able to step outside of your ambition/dreams and try to find a way to make it something that Joe Public will use. May not seem like a big list, but it is a tough list. And if you don't do it all; then people will just continue to use what they already use for their weather.


XtremeHurricanes.com?

2nd Rate...until it's go-time with the the live webcam. Then I expect to have to mortgage the house to pay for the overusage of the Abacast.com stream.

It is a public service site, however...and unlikely to generate any funds.

If it does turn a profit one day [I guess with ads...ack!], all the profits will go to PortLight.org!
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How about 'yourlocalfriendlyneighborhoodweatherman.com'
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Quoting CycloneOz:


My competition...

It was only a matter of time! :)


My videos are purely educational though...
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting hurricane23:
Thought this was pretty interesting from HPC earlier this afternoon.

THE PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PUZZLE THE MODELS. CYCLOGENESIS AS THE GFS
FORECASTED HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZED. IN EACH CYCLE THE GFS
DELAYS ONSET BY 12-18 HRS...AND THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THE
EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORESEE A MUCH SLOWER
EVOLUTION...AND THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK AS THE BEST OPTION.
THE
EARLIEST WE MIGHT SEE A CYCLONE FORMING IS GOING TO BE AT 42-54
HRS...WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...TO THEN PULL
NORTH TOWARDS JAMAICA/THE CAYMAN ISLES BY 66-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP...CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS JAMAICA-PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM. WE MIGHT SEE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...WITH ANOTHER SURGE ON DAY 03 AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. BUT OVERALL...THIS REMAINS A
HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST


As I and some others have been pointing out about the GFS for the last several days. It's too fast (still is on the new 18z run btw), and has issues with handling the pattern. The ECMWF has been my model of choice for this situation since last week. It has been very consistent.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting futuremet:
I am currently making a video for Futuremet Productions. I will release up to 45 videos this summer.


My competition...

It was only a matter of time! :)
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Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
So I am about to start a weather company and I am trying to figure out which name that I want it to be..

I have came down to four names. Which do you all think is best?

  • Spark Weather

  • Star Weather

  • People Weather

  • iWeather Live


  • MeteoStar might take issue with the star name.

    iAnd iI iAm iPersonally iAwfully iTired iOf iThis iStupid iFad.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting Patrap:
    Around the Big H it goes..



    Sigh. The NWS Lake Charles said the high was going to migrate east. So I dont know if anyone in the gulf is out of the woods should something form. :(
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting hurricane23:
    Thought this was pretty interesting from HPC earlier this afternoon.

    THE PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
    CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PUZZLE THE MODELS. CYCLOGENESIS AS THE GFS
    FORECASTED HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZED. IN EACH CYCLE THE GFS
    DELAYS ONSET BY 12-18 HRS...AND THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THE
    EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORESEE A MUCH SLOWER
    EVOLUTION...AND THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK AS THE BEST OPTION. THE
    EARLIEST WE MIGHT SEE A CYCLONE FORMING IS GOING TO BE AT 42-54
    HRS...WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...TO THEN PULL
    NORTH TOWARDS JAMAICA/THE CAYMAN ISLES BY 66-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE
    SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP...CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
    REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS JAMAICA-PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
    SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
    20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM. WE MIGHT SEE A LULL IN
    ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...WITH ANOTHER SURGE ON DAY 03 AS THE SURFACE
    CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. BUT OVERALL...THIS REMAINS A
    HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST


    From my post of 4:09 GMT much earlier today

    "The models have not really handled the SW Caribbean well if you look at the last 7 days of runs. In particular, shear values have remained stubbornly high, thus preventing any development regardless of what the models have shown.

    Shear has been on the rise for the past 24 hours in that area so we are at least 2 days or more away from any chance of something developing."

    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Visible Miami Sector,loop
    Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636

    GOES-12 Atlantic Basin WV ,Wide view
    Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
    Around the Big H it goes..

    Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
    Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
    Conditions at 42058 as of Central Caribbean
    2050 GMT on 06/10/2009:
    Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

    Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
    5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
    5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
    5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
    5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.2 ft
    5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
    5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
    5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 112 deg true )
    5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
    5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
    5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.1 °F
    5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
    5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.9 °F
    5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.2 °F
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Thought this was pretty interesting from HPC earlier this afternoon.

    THE PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
    CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PUZZLE THE MODELS. CYCLOGENESIS AS THE GFS
    FORECASTED HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZED. IN EACH CYCLE THE GFS
    DELAYS ONSET BY 12-18 HRS...AND THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THE
    EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORESEE A MUCH SLOWER
    EVOLUTION...AND THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK AS THE BEST OPTION. THE
    EARLIEST WE MIGHT SEE A CYCLONE FORMING IS GOING TO BE AT 42-54
    HRS...WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...TO THEN PULL
    NORTH TOWARDS JAMAICA/THE CAYMAN ISLES BY 66-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE
    SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP...CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
    REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS JAMAICA-PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
    SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
    20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM. WE MIGHT SEE A LULL IN
    ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...WITH ANOTHER SURGE ON DAY 03 AS THE SURFACE
    CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. BUT OVERALL...THIS REMAINS A
    HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST
    Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
    Quoting jeffs713:
    I wasn't aware that a parabolic dish directing a EM radiation transmission would amplify it.
    True, but since microwaves generally excite water molecules, raising their temperature, it would take a while to just warm the water vapor. You would probably end up with a faster rate of heating by measuring the increased temp of surface water, or possibly increased evaporation. Considering the scales measured, the impact (at least in my mind) would be minimal at best.


    Isnt the atmoshpere already being bombarded with microwaves anyway? Any impact would be minimal at best IMO
    Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
    Quoting stormwatcherCI:
    No rain here today. Clouds up once in awhile but nothing yet. Maybe tonight since we normally get most of the rain here then.


    Water vapor imagery shows you guys remain on the dry side of the discontinuity.

    Yesterday's blog

    What is somewhat guaranteed, is that deep layer moisture will spread north across Jamaica and Eastern Cuba over the upcoming week. Total amounts may exceed 1-2 inches with lesser amounts in the Caymans due their relative position to the features.

    As the upper-surface features change over the upcoming days, so will the moisture distribution.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    I wasn't aware that a parabolic dish directing a EM radiation transmission would amplify it.
    Quoting Ossqss:


    My point is that the energy is lost in the atmosphere, hence altering the norm. Ground level is not the issue. Gotta go. L8R

    True, but since microwaves generally excite water molecules, raising their temperature, it would take a while to just warm the water vapor. You would probably end up with a faster rate of heating by measuring the increased temp of surface water, or possibly increased evaporation. Considering the scales measured, the impact (at least in my mind) would be minimal at best.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting weatherwatcher12:

    I am in Jamaica and boy did it pour


    I hope it was more beneficial than problematic.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting weatherwatcher12:

    I am in Jamaica and boy did it pour
    No rain here today. Clouds up once in awhile but nothing yet. Maybe tonight since we normally get most of the rain here then.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting Weather456:


    Most of the model solutions bring something south of you guys so if something do develop it should not threaten the islands directly. The biggest effect here again is the rain since we cannot guarantee that something will develop.
    Rain would be great since everything is so dry it will take a few days of a good rain to help.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting Weather456:


    Most of the model solutions bring something south of you guys so if something do develop it should not threaten the islands directly. The biggest effect here again is the rain since we cannot guarantee that something will develop.

    I am in Jamaica and boy did it pour
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting jeffs713:


    If you involve the frequency, you have to add in the density of whatever material it is transmitting through.. and I don't want to get that in depth. With frequency and density added in, the number gets even lower. (lower frequency = more pentration) Quikscat transmits on a higher end microwave frequency, which means its penetration ability is very low.


    My point is that the energy is lost in the atmosphere, hence altering the norm. Ground level is not the issue. Gotta go. L8R
    Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
    Quoting stormwatcherCI:
    I am not in Jamaica. I am "further west"in Grand Casyman.

    Based on the forecasts posted here, you shouldn't have too much to worry about. Right now, the closest thing to a consensus we have is that the system will drift north, then NW, and very slowly organize. by slowly, I mean "we might have an invest in 36-48 hours, but definitely no earlier"
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting WeatherStudent:


    CHILL OUT, BRO! DAMN, MY GOSH
    This bro could probably be your Grandmother and if you had been through a hurricane like Ivan on a small island like Grand Cayman that is still not 100% recovered since Sept 2004 you would be anxious about what was going on too. Now, you Chill Bro. Damn !
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting stormwatcherCI:
    I am not in Jamaica. I am "further west"in Grand Casyman.


    Most of the model solutions bring something south of you guys so if something do develop it should not threaten the islands directly. The biggest effect here again is the rain since we cannot guarantee that something will develop.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting jeffs713:


    If I remember by college physics well enough, the amount of radiation is the inverse of the square of the distance between the area being measured and the radiation source.

    So if you have a satellite orbiting 150 miles above the surface (just to make the math manageable), and you measure the wattage at 1 meter from the source... the amount of radiation at the surface of the planet would be about 1/59049000000th the energy (150 miles = 243km) . To put it in perspective... a 1,000,000W source at 150 miles up would have a radiation level of .0000169th of a watt on the ground.


    The Transmitter Power Output is 110 watts. The effective radiated power with a large parabolic dish at that frequency could be in the hundreds of thousands of watts pointed at the earth's surface.

    EDIT: Just did a quick calculation based on a 4-foot dish antenna at 13gHz and a 110 watt transmitter--are you ready for this--OVER 3 MILLION WATTS from the Quickscat bird
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    Quoting Ossqss:
    Would the frequency not have to be part of the equation?


    If you involve the frequency, you have to add in the density of whatever material it is transmitting through.. and I don't want to get that in depth. With frequency and density added in, the number gets even lower. (lower frequency = more pentration) Quikscat transmits on a higher end microwave frequency, which means its penetration ability is very low.
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    Quoting Weather456:


    No significant development of low feature is expected during the next 48 hrs. Probably the low will enhanced additional showers in the vicinity. By 72 hrs, the guidance has it in the northwest corner of the Caribbean west of the island, so I do believe significant development of this feature to threaten Jamaica due to upper winds. The biggest effect will be moisture.
    I am not in Jamaica. I am "further west"in Grand Casyman.
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    Thank you Patrap, Zoomiami, and Adrianalynne :)
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    Quoting jeffs713:

    In the path of what? Something that doesn't exist yet?
    IF !!!!!!!!
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    I love physics

    I am taking an AP physics course when I am senior next year.
    Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
    Quoting zoomiami:


    Stormjunkie and Hurricane23 have great links on their blogs. Just choose blogs at the top & search by name. Or wait until they post and click on their name.


    Hope this helps:
    " http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644929&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL " Model Link is under forecast... they update after invest has been declared.


    NOAA Page: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/




    FSU Page: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

    hope that helps



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    Quoting jeffs713:


    If I remember by college physics well enough, the amount of radiation is the inverse of the square of the distance between the area being measured and the radiation source.

    So if you have a satellite orbiting 150 miles above the surface (just to make the math manageable), and you measure the wattage at 1 meter from the source... the amount of radiation at the surface of the planet would be about 1/59049000000th the energy (150 miles = 243km) . To put it in perspective... a 1,000,000W source at 150 miles up would have a radiation level of .0000169th of a watt on the ground.
    Would the frequency not have to be part of the equation?
    Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186

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    Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.