Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

High wind shear ripping into 97L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:49 PM GMT on July 20, 2009

A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.

Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1001. sfla82 8:09 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting Drakoen: Same peeps, same argument, same time of day. Exactly! Point is 97L is just about dead but people want to keep going with it. If there isn't a storm out there, then there is nothing to wishcast with!!!!LOL

1002. StormChaser81 8:09 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting jasoniscoolman09: two yellow again..haha what happern we have two now... You have at least made it a red circle to freak everybody out, what a waste of photoshop or illustrator. Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

1003. Patrap 8:09 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
This is going to be a long year for the ones that have been around for a while not to get banned im afraid.........LMAO Well,..not this one sport Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113010

1004. BajaALemt 8:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Neat vid ((( Pat ))) .... I remember watching that live :)

1005. futuremet 8:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
He did the same thing last year Jason9999 Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

1010. extreme236 8:11 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Jasoniscoolman09...more like Jasonislameman09 Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1011. SomeRandomTexan 8:12 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
954... Congrats!!! You made the first person on the iggy in 3 years on the blogs! Poof Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1814

1012. BurnedAfterPosting 8:12 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
admin he did it a 3rd time, please ban him

1013. Stormchaser2007 8:13 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Someone who likes to make fake TWO maps obviously has no life. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15296

1016. STORMMASTERG 8:13 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
I am sorry to day,but u jason are a troll it no life.U belong in the sewer.

1017. scCane 8:13 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Looks to me 97 is starting to pull a 2006 tropical storm Chris. Member Since: May 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 152

1018. TampaSpin 8:14 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Ban him but, he could be correct in 5 days.....LOL Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

1021. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
as of 4 pm edt convective refire detected nw of barbados Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

1022. stormdude77 8:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2009

1023. HurricaneNewb 8:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Ban him but, he could be correct in 5 days.....LOL Sad but true ...lol Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 197

1024. Stormchaser2007 8:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting Vortex95: 8pm is almost here wonder how much convection will be left by then. 8pm is 4 hours away. Not that close in my books...lol Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15296

1025. futuremet 8:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Okay, let us stop talking about jasonisuncoolman09. He is laughing hard right now seeing us bickering about him... Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

1027. BurnedAfterPosting 8:16 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007: 8pm is 4 hours away. Not that close in my books...lol LOL yea I had to look at my clock really quick

1028. texasaggiegrey 8:16 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Let's get past this and back to business. Things will be taken care of. Also, see #999, I hope it helps. Now do what you do best.

1029. weatherwatcher12 8:16 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting Acemmett90: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! just die allready Wish they would send a recon Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

1031. mossyhead 8:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: actually it would probably be better cuz there would be no debate as to whether it was developing or not lol . then they would be arguing over what catagories it will become, where it would be going, etc. there is always be arguing in here. it is the nature of the beast. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 472

1032. LPStormspotter 8:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting Acemmett90: you a loser and your only doing this for attiontion your right and everyone is giving it.. Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 378

1033. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
116 WHXX01 KWBC 201838 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1838 UTC MON JUL 20 2009 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090720 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 090720 1800 090721 0600 090721 1800 090722 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 13.4N 59.6W 14.5N 63.9W 16.4N 68.0W 18.0N 71.9W BAMD 13.4N 59.6W 13.7N 61.8W 14.2N 64.4W 15.0N 67.4W BAMM 13.4N 59.6W 14.1N 62.7W 15.2N 66.0W 16.5N 69.3W LBAR 13.4N 59.6W 14.0N 62.8W 15.1N 66.3W 16.3N 70.0W SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 33KTS DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 33KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 090722 1800 090723 1800 090724 1800 090725 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 20.0N 75.6W 23.8N 80.0W 26.8N 80.0W 29.4N 76.9W BAMD 15.8N 70.6W 17.2N 77.1W 17.4N 82.6W 16.9N 87.6W BAMM 17.9N 72.7W 20.6N 78.3W 22.5N 81.0W 24.2N 82.3W LBAR 18.1N 73.7W 21.5N 78.4W 30.5N 77.5W 37.1N 68.6W SHIP 36KTS 41KTS 48KTS 57KTS DSHP 36KTS 39KTS 32KTS 37KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 59.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 55.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 18KT LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 52.2W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

1034. Patrap 8:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Best to ignore the fray,..never quote one,..and just move along. "The Best advice, is simple advice". Retired Astronaut,now NASA administrator,Former U.S. Marine Bolden said that once. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113010

1035. Stormchaser2007 8:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Large intense convective burst with 97L. Some signs of life left in it. Doubt it'll do much though. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15296

1037. futuremet 8:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
The development of a genuine LLC is helping it maintain its convection without relying on diurnal phases. This is a major change from yesterday....contrary to what most were expecting (naked swirls). Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

1040. SomeRandomTexan 8:19 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
its almost 8 pm where 97l is... thats what he meant.. Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1814

1041. jeffs713 8:20 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
DON'T FEED THE TROLLS! This public service message was brought to you by jeffs713. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5729

1042. Seastep 8:20 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting futuremet: The development of a genuine LLC is helping it maintain its convection without relying on diurnal phases. This is a major change from yesterday. Yep. Needs to stay S, though. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3407

1044. 7544 8:22 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
97l is just about to wake up again good burst now begining stay tuned to part 5 Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6023

1045. jeffs713 8:21 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
1039. Don't sink to his level, I think quite a few of us flagged it to the admin, and they will take the appropriate action. Calling him names does nothing except get you flagged and ignored. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5729

1046. futuremet 8:21 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting Seastep: Yep. Needs to stay S, though. Yes, the further south it stays, the less shear it would have to experience Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

1047. Stormchaser2007 8:22 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting SomeRandomTexan: its almost 8 pm where 97l is... thats what he meant.. Ah that makes more sense. Just wasnt specific enough. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15296

1049. reedzone 8:23 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Convection refiring near DMIN... I think this INVEST will actually do something. It's firing off convection while getting heavily sheared (20-30 knots). It's an impressive INVEST. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249

1050. BurnedAfterPosting 8:23 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Ah that makes more sense. Just wasnt specific enough. Diurnal Min phase has just about started, sun will be going down in about 2 hours

1051. canesrule1 8:23 PM GMT on July 20, 2009
Quoting Acemmett90: Agreed and everyone this is the last post about JasonisaFATLOSER09 Everyone email the admin and tell him that he needs a perminate ban how do u email the admin

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