High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Exactly my point, 97L for the first time has model support, no reason to de-activate it.
Dr masters approval your kidding right? Your point is? Iam about to finish my bachelor's degree from florida state university and i think iam pretty capable of analyzing whats out there.Everyone is entitled to there on perspective on things i'll give you that.The tropics basin wide are hostile and i continue to hold on development in august.
I'm not sure what you mean but
The purpose of this site is to monitor the ability of various numerical weather prediction models to develop both extratropical and tropical cyclones. Initially, the site will contain track plots from various models, including the NCEP GFS, NCEP Eta, NCEP global ensemble, NCEP short range ensemble (SREF), UKMET and NOGAPS models. The plan is to eventually include performance and verification statistics as well.
This system is moving into an area of lower shear. As I said yesterday, the 20kts wind shear would inhibit development, but so much to destroy this system. The majority of the cloud streaming patterns is north of the COC. This system will start to consolidate tonight, and will further do so tomorrow.
I'd take the Bachelors Degree lol
i agree with you on everything but the thing off of the Carolinas. It doesent look that impressive to me
Thats not necessarily 97L, but some it's energy and inlfuence.
Well that is definitely good news. I went to The Baths, Virgin Gorda, BVI yesterday with my wife to celebrate my b-day and at first the weather was really windy, and the seas were really kicking, but by afternoon some really intense t-storms came in, making the ferry ride home quite adventurous. We picked up a few inches in the cisten, which is good, but I would really like to see water coming out of the overflow pipes, if you know what I mean.
I on the other hand would not. I find Weather456s forecasts to be extremely informative and accurate
Believe me, I have great respect for you and your knowledge, but given the decent low-level vorticity and surface observations, I would have to respectfully disagree with your conclusion.
He is actually making a good point for once
Not to take ANY credit away from a BS degree.
But some of the older folks here do have a helluva lotta life experience to support their opinions.
and 456 has a much better attitude and treats people a lot better
The center is west of St. Lucia. I witnessed 1st hand what happened as the center passed by.
The winds veered from NE to South @ 15mph and the rotation in the clouds also changed as the center passed. Even the radar shows the rotation just SW of Martinique and west of St. Lucia. No way it could still be to east.
Link
Everyone is capable of analyzing the weather. I have been tracking storms since 1999, when I was in the 6th grade. Conditions are not favorable for a TD, I know this. I am NOT a wishcaster, I back up my stuff with details from the pattern and sometimes models, not all the time. I still hold on to my guns that 97L eventually this week will form into a TD at best. It's doing ok in high wind shear, still blowing convection near the LLC, though it's getting sheared to the east.. but still, no reason to de-activate it, absolutely no reason, especially when it FINALLY has model support. :)
exactly
INV/97L/XX
MARK
13.6N/60.6W
Its these kinds of posts that make people not respect your opinion regardless of your credentials
If the center is west of there then 97L just committed suicide. Also it's very easy for those winds to just be locally influenced since it's an island.
I agree
Its doing ok? I cant even make out the mid level circulation it once had.
maybe if he didnt come in and act like he is better than everyone, people wouldnt react that way to him
I second that.
your posts are like everyone elses on here
just posts
i for one take em with a grain of salt
new convective refire detected nw of previous
area as of 626 pm edt
Your just being ridiculous now.. I dunno why so many experts have attitudes! I'm not predicting a hurricane for gosh sake. We can agree to dissagree. I don't care if you dissagree, we are ALL subject to our opinions. But PLEASE respect me and what I do and I'll respect you in what you do! I'm a Christian, I don't fight like most do on here.
lol you are making me laugh with the reports, like you are on radar detail or a robot
not being sarcastic, I think the posts are awesome lol
lol
wave looks decent, very far south in the ITCZ, shear is around 20 knots in that area
Keep, is there an animation with that link, please? Thanks.
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